But the pace of inflation has accelerated this year. In the first three months, the producer index jumped 5.1 percent, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, and the same was true for the consumer index. That is why some analysts worry that Fed policy makers are waiting too long to raise interest rates. (One counterargument is this: The core producer index, which excludes food and energy, rose only 2.1 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter while the core consumer index climbed 2.9 percent.)

The Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a 0.2 percent increase in the April producer index and 0.3 percent in the April consumer index. Both numbers would be below first-quarter inflation.

WHAT'S UP?

The prices of sugar and sweets rose just 0.4 percent over the last year through March. But the cost of getting cavities filled jumped 5.4 percent. The price for sipping wine and brandy was up 0.5 percent, but the cost of beer and ale was 3.2 percent dearer.

These snippets are from the index for personal consumption expenditures, an inflation barometer favored by the Fed. It has more detail behind the overall price data than the Consumer Price Index.

Eggs led the price parade, surging 32.2 percent, while the cost of public higher education rose 10.9 percent. New Yorkers, with their first taxi fare increase in eight years, may be comforted by the 11.2 percent increase in fares across the nation.

Some things did become cheaper. Prices of furniture and other big household items were off 5.3 percent, with video and audio equipment down 9.9 percent and small electric appliances off 5.9 percent.

The biggest price drop, 16.6 percent for fuel oil, including home heating oil, was a bit of a mirage because it was measured from a February 2003 peak price for home heating oil. In the first three months of 2004, fuel oil was up 7.3 percent.

HOW HIGH?

Where the interest rate surge will end is the question after the government reported Friday that 288,000 jobs were created in April, many more than the 170,000 in the consensus forecast. The spike in Treasury yields after the report reflected a belief that the big pickup in job growth in March and April will persuade the Fed to raise its benchmark interest rate soon, pushing all other rates higher.

But the latest Blue Chip Financial Forecast predicts that the yield on the 10-year note will not move much higher from its current 4.75 percent, a 22-month high. The average of the survey's 46 forecasts is just 4.8 percent for the fourth quarter and 5.1 percent for the first three months of 2005. The highest forecast calls for a 10-year yield of 5.6 percent early next year.

One reason for the restrained forecasts is that economists assume the Fed rate increases will be measured.

Another is that expectations of rate increases have already lifted the 10-year yield by more than a percentage point from 3.68 percent in March.

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