Mr. Grant says a secular bull market in bonds that began in 1981 ended a year ago today. On June 13, 2003, yields on 10-year Treasury notes fell to 3.11 percent. Last Thursday, the last trading day of the week, the yield of the 10-year note was 4.82 percent; the yield moves inversely to the price.

Based on past cycles dating back to the mid-19th century, the new bear market for bonds is now 12 months old, he said.

"These secular bear markets are not necessarily apocalyptic or horrible events," Mr. Grant said. "What this means is that interest rates will go up. Rising rates mean different things to different asset classes, depending on how they are valued."

Mr. Grant is not about to predict how high rates will go in this cycle, or how long it will take for them to peak. The last secular bear market in bonds lasted from 1946 to 1981.

"What is often wanting at such junctures is imagination," he said.

"In 1981, when the prime rate averaged 19 percent," he said, "I don't think anybody would have predicted a 1 percent federal funds rate and a 3 percent 10-year Treasury in an investor's lifetime."

The good news about rising rates, Mr. Grant said, is that people "who have been driven into long-duration capital markets grubbing for yield might be able to buy the groceries on the proceeds of a money market account."

Right now, though, his main message is this: "I think people should swear off bonds."

INFLATION WATCH

If a report due on Tuesday shows a higher-than-expected climb in consumer prices, inflation-wary bond investors may push market interest rates up sharply.

The consensus forecast calls for an increase of 0.4 percent in the overall consumer price index, and a 0.2 percent gain in the core index, which excludes food and energy prices.

Analysts at J. P. Morgan are projecting a 0.7 percent increase in the overall number, which "would create a problem" for financial markets, said Bill Sharp, a J. P. Morgan economist.

EYES ON ORACLE

Also on Tuesday, the Oracle Corporation, an icon in the technology boom of the 1990's, will report its results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year.

Analysts are optimistic about what the company, a maker of business database and applications software, will say.

Charles di Bona, who follows Oracle for Sanford C. Bernstein, says he expects the company to report quarterly earnings of 18 cents a share, in line with consensus estimates. Oracle earned 16 cents a share in its fourth quarter last year.

A figure of 18 cents a share would mean the third solid quarter in a row for Oracle. But questions linger.

"The question I have been asked most frequently is: 'How fast can Oracle grow?" said Heather Bellini, an analyst at UBS.

The short answer: a lot slower than it did in the boom years of the 1990's, when revenues were expanding at a 20 percent to 30 percent clip.

Still, both Mr. di Bona and Ms. Bellini like the stock, even if the company loses its bid to acquire PeopleSoft Inc.

"All the internal growth initiatives at Oracle are database-related, and they are starting to play out," Mr. di Bona said.

Ms. Bellini said that growth "will be better than people think." For the near term, the stock will trade in the $11-to-$15 range, she said.

On Thursday, Oracle shares closed at $11.71, up 17 cents.

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