By KENNETH N. GILPIN
When the leaders of the Group of 8 industrial nations meet this week, financial markets are likely to be most interested in what isn't discussed.
President Bush will be host for the session, the group's 29th annual meeting, at Sea Island, Ga., from Tuesday through Thursday.
There is always the chance of a surprise, but analysts say the meeting, which will encompass a range of financial and political subjects, will probably include a lot of mutual congratulations about the state of the world economy.
John Lipsky, chief economist at J.P. Morgan Securities, noted that expansive monetary and fiscal policies in many of these countries had bolstered their economies.
"Global growth in the first half of the year will be the strongest in the last 16 or 17 years," he said. "In that sense, the outlook for the principal economies is much better than it was a year ago."
But the markets should pay closer attention to a structural problem, said Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley.
"The big issue they are missing is that imbalances matter," Mr. Roach said. "We have massive trade and budget deficits in the United States and huge surpluses in Asia. I am not trained to wave a wand over these huge imbalances and say this is the way the world works now."
If Mr. Roach had his way, the leaders would focus on two things: "The United States needs to be called to task for running reckless monetary and fiscal policies and fostering an environment that has allowed consumers to live well beyond their means. And the rest of the world has to be called to task for failing to stimulate domestic demand."
By accentuating the positive and ignoring or playing down the negative, he said, the leaders are "whistling past the graveyard."
AN UNPLEASANT REMINDER
On Friday, a day after the summit meeting ends, markets will get their monthly reminder of the depth of the nation's merchandise trade deficit.
Consensus estimates call for a slightly smaller deficit - $44.9 billion for April, compared with $46 billion for March. Matters would be worse if not for the weak dollar, though it does little to ease the nation's reliance on foreign capital to finance its trade bill.
INFLATION UPDATE
The decline in oil prices, among other changes in economic barometers in recent days, has blunted some of the financial markets' concerns about inflation.
Still, the markets will probably react unfavorably if a report due on Friday for May producer prices shows higher-than-expected increases.
The consensus forecast is for a gain of 0.5 percent in the overall Producer Price Index, and an increase of 0.2 percent for the core rate, which excludes prices of food and energy.
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