In recent years, however, certain segments of some energy markets have been liberalized, since these segments might not actually be natural monopoly situations and/or because the market may provide means to ensure that firms internalize externalities. We describe the experiences of a number of jurisdictions that have experimented with energy market liberalization and show that restructuring is feasible and may provide an improvement over the status quo if market power can be limited.
We consider the potential for restructuring in Quebec’s energy markets which are currently regulated by the Regie de l’energie du Quebec. Quebec’s electricity market does not represent a typical case for the restructuring of the production side since the vast majority of its generating capacity comes from hydro projects. Over 90% of Quebec’s installed electrical capacity is hydro generated, making Quebec the second most hydro-dominated market in the world after Norway. Furthermore, this capacity is highly concentrated on three river systems. The usual model of forced divestiture by hydrologic system is therefore likely to introduce market power in a restructured market, and may lead to greater inefficiencies than those present under regulation. In order for any market restructuring to succeed, (at least) one of two approaches must be undertaken. A system of tradable water rights could be established in parallel with a competitive power pool in order to allow divestiture of individual plants within a river system and/or Quebec’s markets could be opened to foreign production.
The retail segment of Quebec’s energy markets could potentially benefit from liberalization. The only obvious difference between Quebec’s energy markets and those in other jurisdictions is Quebec’s price-equalization policy. Lower prices could prevail if competition were introduced to the markets for electricity and natural gas, but not for all consumers. Quebec’s insistence on uniform prices throughout the province means that some consumers are currently paying below market price for energy. Prices for these consumers could rise if the market is restructured.
Date: 2005-05-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirbur:2005rb-03&r=all
7. Problematiques juridiques des logiciels libres et ouverts :
defis et solutions pour le gouvernement du Quebec (
RESOLL)
Pierre-Paul Lemyre
Richard Willemant
En reponse a l'interet manifeste par l'industrie quebecoise du logiciel et dans le contexte d'un questionnement global des administrations publiques en ce sens, le gouvernement du Quebec s'interesse de pres aux logiciels libres et ouverts. Cette ouverture se comprend parfaitement dans un contexte ou l'amelioration des services en ligne aux citoyens doit etre realisee tout en minimisant les depenses technologiques, en amoindrissant l'emprise des prestataires de services sur l'administration et en favorisant l'epanouissement de la societe de l'information au Quebec. Toutefois, comme le demontre l'actualite, l'adoption de cette nouvelle attitude vis- a-vis de la creation des logiciels ne se fait pas toujours sans soulever de difficultes juridiques. Pour cette raison, la facon dont le droit quebecois interagit avec les logiciels libres et ouverts (ainsi que l'evaluation des risques qui en decoulent) prend une importance particuliere.
L'analyse presentee demontre que le droit, tel qu'en vigueur au Quebec, semble en mesure de faire face efficacement aux differentes problematiques juridiques sous-jacentes a l'utilisation des logiciels libres et ouverts. Tout d'abord, aucune regle d'origine legale ne s'oppose a la validite des principales licences libres et ouvertes, et cela malgre le fait que la plupart d'entre elles n'ont pas ete concues avec le systeme juridique quebecois en tete. Ensuite, autant le regime federal du droit d'auteur que les regles quebecoises de la responsabilite contractuelle permettent aux developpeurs et aux utilisateurs des logiciels libres et ouverts de preserver efficacement la liberte du code informatique, objectif caracteristique des licences libres et ouvertes.
Il n'en
demeure pas moins qu'un certain nombre de risques juridiques
decoulent de l'utilisation des logiciels libres et ouverts,
qu'ils proviennent des exigences de formalisme de la Loi sur le
droit d'auteur, des violations anterieures aux droits de
propriete intellectuelle de tiers ou tout simplement de la
protection contractuelle elevee dont beneficie les donneurs
de licences. En consequence, l'integration des logiciels libres
et ouverts a la strategie technologique du gouvernement du
Quebec necessite la mise en place de quelques initiatives
permettant de reduire ces risques autant que possible, et de
rendre possible la gestion de ceux qui ne peuvent etre
completement elimines.
Keywords: , logiciels libres et ouverts, open source,
developpeurs, programmeurs, copyleft, propriete
intellectuelle, SCO, FSF, OSI, Progress, MySQL,
Netfilter, GmbH, RESOLL
Date: 2005-04-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirpro:2005rp-06&r=all
8. Effort fiscal compare :
le Quebec et les autres
provinces canadiennes
Luc Godbout
Karine Dumont
Sebastien Raymond
This study compares Quebec’s tax effort with that of the other
Canadian provinces. The results show that the tax effort is
higher in Quebec than in any other Canadian province. In the
first section, the authors expose the global situation that
currently prevails in Quebec. In the second section, an analysis
of the tax effort for six tax bases is carried out. Those six
bases are equally divided between individuals and corporations.
The analysis makes it possible to identify the tax bases where
the gaps are the largest. This in turn lets us identify
achievable adjustments within Quebec’s current tax structure in
order to attain a comparable structure with the other provinces,
if such is the wish of the present government.
L’etude
compare l’effort fiscal du Quebec a celui des autres
provinces canadiennes. On y constate que l’effort fiscal est
effectivement superieur au Quebec relativement aux autres
provinces canadiennes. Dans la premiere partie de l’etude,
les auteurs dressent le portrait de la situation fiscale qui
prevaut au Quebec. Dans la deuxieme partie, une analyse de
l’effort fiscal pour six assiettes fiscales est realisee.
Cette analyse s’effectue en deux temps, soit la situation des
particuliers et celle des societes. Elle permet d’identifier
les assiettes ou les ecarts sont les plus grands et
d’envisager certains deplacements possibles au sein de la
structure fiscale quebecoise afin de la rendre davantage
comparable a celles des autres provinces, si tel est le souhait
du gouvernement.
Keywords: : personal taxes, corporate taxes, income tax,
property tax, corporate income tax, tax on capital,
payroll tax, consumption tax, tax effort, tax bases,
comparison, Quebec, canadian provinces, impots sur les
particuliers, impots sur les societes, impot sur le
revenu, impot foncier, impot sur les benefices,
taxe sur le capital, taxe sur la masse salariale, taxe
a la consommation, effort fiscal, assiettes fiscales,
comparaison, Quebec, provinces canadiennes
JEL: H24 H25
Date: 2005-04-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2005s-22&r=all
9. Fiscalite et offre de travail :
une etude experimentale
Louis Levy-Garboua
David Masclet
Claude Montmarquette
We make use of experimental economics to examine how people
adjust their supply of work effort in response to a variation in
tax rates. Participants are paired in the experiment. In each
pair, one participant randomly chosen has to exert an effort and
is taxed to the benefit of the other participant. The working
subjects are confronted with four different tax rates (12%, 28%,
50% or 79%) and are asked to perform a number of real tasks. We
ran four different treatments depending on volume of work (high
or low) and whether the tax rate is chosen by the other subjects
in the pairing or randomly chosen by the computer. We observe
that the work supply decreases (increases) with a rise (decline)
in tax rates. We find a strong disincentive effect of taxation,
particularly when the tax rates are chosen by the tax receivers
in the high volume of work treatment.
Dans cet article, nous
examinons a partir d’une etude experimentale dans quelle
mesure l'offre de travail des individus est influencee par des
variations de taux de taxation. L’economie experimentale
permet la collecte dans un environnement controle de donnees
empiriques pertinentes et fiables afin d’identifier et evaluer
l’importance de chaque motivation particuliere dans la prise
de decision des agents. Cette approche offre une alternative aux
etudes econometriques sur la question de l’elasticite de
l’offre de travail relativement aux taxes sur le revenu de
travail ou il est souvent difficile d’isoler l’effet des
taxes des autres facteurs. Les resultats experimentaux obtenus
ne laissent aucun doute quant au role de la fiscalite sur
l’offre de travail. Des taxes elevees incitent les individus
a reduire leur offre de travail. Au plan de la dynamique, des
variations positives (negatives) de taux diminuent (augmentent)
leur offre de travail. Cette influence est particulierement
importante lorsque les taux de prelevement sont hauts, que le
volume de travail est eleve et que le niveau de taxation choisi
est endogene dans le cadre d’une fiscalite ou le
beneficiaire decide du taux.
Keywords: taxation and labor supply, experimental economics,
taxation et offre de travail, economie experimentale
JEL: C91 H30 J22
Date: 2005-04-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2005s-23&r=all
10. Dynamic Suboptimality of Competitive Equilibrium in
Multiperiod Overlapping Generations Economies
Espen Henriksen
Stephen Spear
The question we ask is: within the set of a three-period-lived
OLG economies with a stochastic endowment process, a stochastic
dividend process, and sequentially complete markets, under what
set of conditions may a set of government transfers dynamically
Pareto dominate the laissez faire equilibrium? We start by
characterizing perfect risk sharing and find that it implies a
strongly stationary set of state-dependent consumption claims. We
also derive the stochastic equivalent of the deterministic steady-
state by steady-state optimal marginal rate of substitution. We
show then that the risk sharing of the recursive competitive
laissez faire equilibrium of any overlapping generations economy
with weakly more than three generations is non-stationary and
that risk is suboptimally shared. We then show that we can
construct a sequence of consumption allocations that only depends
on the exogenous state and which Pareto dominate the laissez
faire allocations in an ex interim as well as ex ante sense. We
also redefine conditional Pareto optimality to apply within this
framework and show that under a broad set of conditions, there
also exists a sequence of allocations that dominates the laissez
faire equilibrium in this sense. Finally, we apply these tools
and results to an economy where the endowment is constant, but
where fertility is stochastic, i.e. the number of newborn
individuals who enters the economy follows a Markov Process.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmu:gsiawp:1114116336&r=all
11. Minimum Wages in Colombia: Holding the Middle with a Bite
Carlos Arango
Angelica Pachon
This paper exploits the long history of the minimum wage in a
relatively stable developing economy like Colombia in order to
see whether it may alleviate the living conditions of low income
families and reduce income inequality. The paper does not only
explore how the minimum wage may serve these purposes, but also
how it may distort market outcomes to do so. We found significant
negative minimum wage effects on both the likelihood of being
employed and hours worked for all family members, being it
stronger for women, and the young and less educated people. We
also found a positive effect on non-head participation especially
in families with low human capital. But, more important, we found
evidence that the minimum wage ends up being regressive,
improving the living conditions of families in the middle and the
upper part of the income distribution with net losses for those
at the bottom.
Keywords: Minimum wage,
JEL: O15
Date: 2004-03-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000113&r=all
12. Modelos Estructurales de Inflacion en Colombia: Estimacion
a traves de Minimos Cuadrados Flexibles
Luis Fernando Melo Velandia
Martha Alicia Misas Arango
En este documento se presenta evidencia de cambios estructurales,
a finales de la decada de los noventa, en las relaciones
economicas planteadas en los modelos uniecuacionales de
inflacion en Colombia. Hecho que afecta la inferencia y los
pronosticos obtenidos a traves de uso de tecnicas clasicas de
estimacion. La metodologia de estimacion de minimos cuadrados
flexibles (Kalaba y Tesfatsion 1989, 1990), propuesta en esta
investigacion, permite incorporar tales cambios superando los
problemas asociados a las metodologias tradicionales. Los
pronosticos obtenidos a partir de esta metodologia son
superiores, en sentido de menor error minimo cuadratico, a
aquellos obtenidos a traves de minimos cuadrados ordinarios.
Date: 2004-03-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000174&r=all
13. Combinacion de pronosticos de la inflacion en presencia
de cambios estructurales
Luis Fernando Melo Velandia
Hector M. Nunez Amortegui
En este trabajo se implementan diferentes metodologias de
combinacion de pronosticos para la inflacion colombiana
durante el periodo trimestral comprendido entre 1999:I y 2003:I
I. Los metodos de combinacion propuestos permiten modelar
cambios estructurales con el objeto de capturar el cambio de
nivel de la inflacion ocurrido en 1998 y 1999. Los resultados
obtenidos muestran que la metodologia de Castano y Melo (1998),
que no considera cambios estructurales, sigue siendo apropiada
para pronosticos de horizontes de 1, 2 y 3 trimestres. Sin
embargo, para horizontes mayores las metodologias de
combinacion que consideran cambios estructurales son las mejores,
en el sentido de que tienen el menor error cuadratico medio de
prediccion.
Date: 2004-05-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000221&r=all
14. DETERMINANTS OF SPREAD AND CREDITWORTHINESS FOR EMERGING
MARKET SOVEREIGN DEBT: A PANEL DATA STUDY
Peter Rowland
Jose Luis Torres Trespalacios
This study uses a panel-data framework to identify the
determinants of the spread over US Treasuries of emerging market
sovereign issues as well as of the creditworthiness of the
issuers, where the latter is represented by the Institutional
Investor’s creditworthiness index. We use a sample of 16
emerging market economies, together with time series data for the
period 1998 to 2002 when analysing the spread, and from 1987 to
2001 when analysing the creditworthiness. The results suggest
that for both the spread and the creditworthiness, significant
explanatory variables include the economic growth rate, the debt-
to-GDP ratio, the reserves-to-GDP ratio, and the debt-to-exports
ratio. In addition, the spread is also determined by the exports-
to-GDP ratio, and the debt service to GDP, while the
creditworthiness is influenced by the inflation rate and a
default dummy variable.
Date: 2004-07-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000557&r=all
15. Cambios en la Estructura de los Salarios Urbanos en Colombia
1984-2000)
Luis Eduardo Arango
Carlos Esteban Posada
Jose Dario Uribe
Entre 1984 y 2000 se registraron variaciones importantes en la
relacion entre salarios de los trabajadores de mayor y menor
nivel educativo. Entre 1992 y 1998 se presento un incremento de
esta relacion que muy probablemente contribuyo a explicar la
reversion de la tendencia previa a la desconcentracion del
ingreso ocurrida durante los anos 90, mientras que lo contrario
se observo en los periodos 1984-91 y 1999-2000. Nuestras
estimaciones indican que tales variaciones de los salarios fueron
causadas por movimientos de la relacion entre demanda y oferta
laboral, en consonancia con el modelo convencional de
determinacion de salarios. Ademas, no se rechaza la hipotesis
de ocurrencia de un cambio tecnico, al menos en un sentido laxo,
intensivo en el uso de trabajadores del mayor nivel educativo
durante los anos 90 cuyo efecto en la demanda fue tan alto que
no logro ser compensado por los aumentos en la oferta. Codigos
Keywords: Salarios relativos;
Date: 2004-07-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000566&r=all
16. LA VIVIENDA COMO COLATERAL: POLITICA MONETARIA , PRECIOS DE
LA VIVIENDA Y CONSUMO EN COLOMBIA
Martha Lopez P.
En este documento se calibra un modelo de equilibrio general
dinamico para el sector de vivienda en Colombia. El modelo tiene
en cuenta el papel de las fricciones del mercado de credito en
la explicacion del ciclo economico. La vivienda sirve dos
propositos: el de proveer servicios de vivienda y el de servir
como colateral para disminuir los costos de financiamiento
relativos a la actividad de pedir prestado. Con el modelo se
pretende mostrar la relacion existente entre la hoja de balance
de los hogares, la inversion en vivienda, los precios de la
misma y el consumo. Se encuentra evidencia empirica de que
existe un mecanismo de acelerador financiero en la inversion en
vivienda y de que el consumo de los hogares responde a los
efectos de la hoja de balance. En la decada de los noventa, el
mecanismo de acelerador financiero explica cerca del cuarenta por
ciento de la respuesta maxima de la inversion en vivienda y de
los precios de la misma ante un choque en tasas de interes.
Finalmente, se hace un experimento para capturar la forma como
desde 2000 el mecanismo de acelerador financiero se ve afectado
por un cambio estructural en el mercado de financiacion de
vivienda.
Date: 2004-08-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000574&r=all
17. LA VIVIENDA EN COLOMBIA: Sus Determinantes Socio-Economicos
y Financieros
Sergio Clavijo
Michel Janna
Santiago Munoz
El objetivo de este trabajo es proporcionar una vision de
conjunto del mercado hipotecario en Colombia y su relacion con
los principales determinantes que se encuentran a nivel
internacional. Nuestras recomendaciones apuntan a examinar la
cadena productiva y obtener un mejor entendimiento de las
estadisticas “vitales” del sector vivienda y su relacion
con las condiciones crediticias. Tambien presentamos un modelo
simultaneo tendiente a explicar los ciclos de precios
hipotecarios en Colombia durante el periodo 1990-2003. Por el
lado de la demanda, encontramos que el metraje construido es
bastante elastico al ingreso laboral de los hogares y al precio
de la vivienda nueva, asi como a la tasa de interes real. Por
el lado de la oferta, se observo una elasticidad alta a los
costos de construccion y un efecto riqueza moderado. Estos
resultados son robustos a diferentes tipos de estimacion.
Keywords: Mercados financieros,
JEL: E44
Date: 2004-08-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000577&r=all
18. CRISIS FISCAL ACTUAL: DIAGNOSTICO Y RECOMENDACIONES
Hernan Rincon
Jorge Ramos
Ignacio Lozano
Despues de la ejecucion del programa de ajuste fiscal y
macroeconomico aplicado entre 1999 y 2002, y de las medidas
economicas tomadas por la actual administracion, se conoce que
el pais no se encuentra aun sobre una senda fiscal sostenible.
Este documento recapitula integralmente el problema de las
finanzas del gobierno y plantea algunas recomendaciones en
materia de ingresos, gastos y deuda, con el fin de sanearlas y
hacerlas sostenibles en el mediano y largo plazo. Haciendo un
reconocimiento a los esfuerzos que han hecho las anteriores
administraciones y la actual, el documento contribuye al debate
que busca la adopcion de nuevas y efectivas decisiones de
politica fiscal.
Keywords: Ingresos y gastos del gobierno;
JEL: E62
Date: 2004-07-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000578&r=all
19. A TROPICAL SUCESS STORY: A CENTURY OF IMPROVEMENTS IN THE
BIOLOGICAL STANDARD OF LIVING, COLOMBIA 1910-2002
Adolfo Meisel
Margarita Vega
Since the late 1970’s there has been a growing interest among
economic historians in the study of the behavior of height over
time, as an alternative method for measuring the standard of
living.1 Adult height reflects the net nutritional status of a
person during the years of physical growth, which is influenced
by food intake, health, and work effort.2 Thus it provides a
measure of the biological standard of living, one of the
dimensions of the overall standard of living. This paper studies
the behavior in the height of Colombian women and men born since
1910 to 1984. For Colombians born in 1984 the adult height was
recorded in 2002, when they received their citizenship card. Thus,
the height data discussed in this paper reflect the behavior
from 1910 to 2002 of the determinants of height. The information
that is used comes from the citizenship card (cedula de
ciudadania). With 8.454.348 observations, this is one of the
largest databases, relative to the population of the country,
found in the literature of anthropometric history to date. In
economic terms Colombia was a success story during the twentieth
century. The rate of growth of per capita GDP from 1905 to 2000
was 2.3%, one of the highest in Latin America3. This economic
success was reflected in several dimensions of the standard of
living, one of which is the height of its population. Colombian
men born in 1984 were 7.9 cm. taller than those born in 1910,
while in the case of women the increase was of 8.8 cm., an
enormous improvement in physical well being which was achieved in
only three generations.
Date: 2004-05-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000588&r=all
20. THE CASE FOR MACRO RISK BUDGETING AND PORTFOLIO TRANCHING IN
RESERVES MANAGEMENT
Alejandro Reveiz
The set of objectives in reserves management are normally
predefined and include: protecting the economy against potential
external shocks on the current account or on capital flows;
invest the reserves minimizing the potential of a loss and
ensuring the availability of international liquidity when
necessary. Whereas the adoption of a floating exchange rate in
theory reduces the need for reserves to protect against external
shocks, in the context of free capital movements it will be a
function of the efficiency of international markets. In practical
terms, Reserves Management is a process with a high effective
complexity. The manager is confronted with the randomness of
markets – including its own through the impact on the Reserves
of Central Bank intervention – and the regularities that arise
from its guidelines (i.e. credit and market risk, as well as
liquidity policies) and the foreign exchange intervention
mechanisms. Recently, given the increase in the size of the
foreign reserves in recent decades for some central banks, as a
result and in response to globalization and more volatility on
currency flows, portfolio foreign investment and other related
factors as contagion effects, the pressure to generate long-term
returns has increased. However, the goal of increased returns is
subdued to the security and liquidity objectives in international
reserves management. As a result, the process of asset allocation
and the construction of an efficient set of investment guidelines,
as well as a risk policy, must be framed by a liquidity policy
and, generally, to an asymmetric exposure to risk where capital
loses are to be avoided in specific time horizons; i.e. a fiscal
year.
Date: 2004-05-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000589&r=all
21. INFLACION Y FINANZAS PUBLICAS
Leonardo Villar Gomez
El proposito de este articulo es mostrar que, en contra de lo
que muchos analistas preveian hace pocos anos, las finanzas
publicas en Colombia han obtenido un beneficio significativo del
proceso reciente de reduccion de la inflacion. El menor ritmo
de crecimiento de los precios ha estimulado la demanda por saldos
monetarios reales y ha aumentado por esa via el senoreaje total
generado por el Banco de la Republica. Por esa razon, la
magnitud del senoreaje se mantiene en niveles relativamente
altos, pese a drastica contraccion en los encajes requeridos al
sistema financiero que tuvo lugar desde mediados de la decada de
los noventa y a la consiguiente reduccion en esta fuente de
senoreaje. Por su parte, los cambios en la utilizacion del
senoreaje han permitido que la porcion que beneficia
directamente al gobierno –el senoreaje fiscal- aumente de
manera notoria en el periodo reciente. Este beneficio fiscal,
sin embargo, puede verse afectado negativamente en la medida en
que una porcion mayor del senoreaje total se destine a la
compra de divisas para acumulacion de reservas internacionales.
Finalmente, el articulo cuantifica el beneficio que ha tenido la
caida de la inflacion sobre las necesidades de financiamiento
del gobierno y la magnitud del deficit fiscal, a traves del
impacto de menores tasas nominales de interes.
Keywords: Finanzas publicas,
Date: 2004-06-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000590&r=all
22. EFFECTS OF FINANCIAL CAPITAL ON COLOMBIAN BANKING EFFICIENCY
Dairo Estrada
Poldy Osorio
In this paper we discuss cost and pro?t e±ciency for a sample
of ?nancial institutions on the Colombian ?nancial market in
the period 1989-2003, using stochastic frontier e±ciency
analysis. During the pe- riod, the cost e±cient frontier
deteriorates, but pro?t e±cient frontier is relatively stable.
We found signi?cant di®erence when we compare the e±ciency
scores between types of ?nancial intermediaries. Addi- tionally,
our analysis show that the scores for pro?t and cost e±ciency
have di®erent distribution. We found big di®erences between
pro?t and cost e±ciency among the di®erent type banks. This is
evidence in favor of some banks behaving collusively and
capturing oligopoly rents.
Keywords: Frontier;
JEL: C23
Date: 2004-06-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000591&r=all
23. REGIONAL ECONOMIC POLICIES:FOUR COUNTRY CASES
Gerson Javier Perez V.
Peter Rowland
This paper presents four case studies of economies with well-
developed regional policies. These include the European Union,
Spain, Italy and Brazil. These cases have been chosen because of
their relevance when studying regional problems in Colombia. In
all of the cases regional policy has had a relatively poor
performance, since regional disparities have not been
significantly reduced. However, one could argue that disparities
would have been larger without these policy initiatives. Thus,
the results highlight the difficulties in developing a successful
regional policy.
Date: 2004-08-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000615&r=all
24. DINERO, PRECIOS, TASA DE INTERES Y ACTIVIDAD ECONOMICA: UN
MODELO DEL CASO COLOMBIANO (1984:I-2003:IV)
Jose Fernando Escobar R.
Carlos Estaban Posada
A partir de un esquema de oferta y demanda de dinero se estimo
un modelo de relaciones de corto y largo plazo entre cinco
variables: base monetaria, dinero (M1), tasa de interes,
producto y nivel de precios al consumidor (cifras trimestrales
desde 1984:I hasta 2003:IV). El modelo es del tipo denominado
SVEC (Structural Vector Error Correction). Los parametros de las
funciones de oferta y demanda de dinero son compatibles con las
restricciones teoricas convencionales. La estimacion utilizo
la metodologia de tendencias estocasticas comunes para realizar
un analisis de impulsorespuesta y un ejercicio de pronostico
con las posibles variables debilmente exogenas.
Keywords: Dinero,
JEL: E41
Date: 2004-08-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000641&r=all
25. VALOR EN RIESGO DE LOS ACTIVOS FINANCIEROS COLOMBIANOS
APLICANDO LA TEORIA DE VALOR EXTREMO
Pamela Cardozo
Desde finales de los anos 80 el sistema financiero colombiano
ha experimentado cambios fundamentales acompanados de una mayor
volatilidad del entorno en que se desenvuelve la actividad
financiera. Como parte del fortalecimiento de la regulacion
prudencial, desde el 2000 en Colombia, se esta supervisando el
riesgo de mercado medido a traves del Valor en Riesgo (VeR). El
VeR se define como la maxima perdida potencial en el valor de
un activo o portafolio, dada una probabilidad, debido a cambios
en los precios del mercado, en un horizonte de tiempo determinado.
Para obtener el VeR de un activo generalmente se supone que los
retornos siguen una distribucion normal, sin embargo existe gran
evidencia de que esta no se ajusta en forma correcta a la serie
de retornos financieros. En este estudio se utiliza la teoria de
valor extremo (TVE) para obtener el VeR de 6 activos financieros
colombianos utilizando el metodo de Picos sobre un umbral (Peaks
over Thresholds (POT)) mostrando que la distribucion normal no
se ajusta a la distribucion de los retornos de los activos
colombianos. Se modela de forma satisfactoria la distribucion de
las series, bajo el supuesto de observaciones independientes e
identicamente distribuidas, especialmente en la parte extrema de
la distribucion. Se compara el VeR obtenido (VeR TVE) y el VeR
bajo el supuesto de distribucion normal con los retornos reales
dando como resultado un mejor ajuste del VeR de TVE. En el
ultimo examen de desempeno, la hipotesis nula de que el modelo
realiza una buena estimacion es rechazada 11 veces por el
metodo tradicional (distribucion normal) mientras que el
metodo de TVE lo hace 6 veces.
Keywords: Valor en riesgo,
Date: 2004-08-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000643&r=all
26. EJERCICIO DE ESTIMACION DE LA TASA DE CAMBIO DEL MERCADO
LIBRE
Gloria Alonso
Jorge Nino
Hector Zarate
La legislacion cambiaria vigente permite a los residentes
colombianos efectuar transacciones en divisas con no residentes,
a traves de dos mecanismos: el mercado cambiario regulado y/o el
mercado libre. El mercado cambiario regulado esta constituido
por la totalidad de las divisas que deben canalizarse
obligatoriamente por conducto de los intermediarios autorizados o
a traves de cuentas de compensacion en el exterior. En
particular, en este mercado se deben negociar las divisas para
operaciones de comercio exterior, de inversion extranjera
directa y de portafolio, asi como de endeudamiento externo entre
otras operaciones que se detallan mas adelante. En el mercado
libre, por su parte, se pueden negociar las divisas que no son de
obligatoria canalizacion en el mercado regulado, como aquellas
relacionadas con la prestacion (contratacion) de servicios no
financieros, remesas de trabajadores y movimiento de cuentas
libres en el exterior. No obstante, los agentes tambien pueden
utilizar el mercado regulado para canalizar divisas del mercado
libre. En la medida en que las divisas del mercado cambiario
regulado son negociadas a traves de los intermediarios del
mercado cambiario (IMC) y/o cuentas de compensacion, existe
obligatoriedad de reporte sobre las mismas. Dichos reportes son
consolidados por el Banco de la Republica y divulgados en la
“balanza cambiaria consolidada”. Por el contrario, dado que
parte de las operaciones del mercado libre no se transa con IMC
ni genera movimientos de cuentas de compensacion, no es posible
cuantificar su magnitud, ni llevar un registro completo de las
transacciones que se efectuan en dicho mercado, asi como
tampoco se conocen las tasas que en el se negocian. Por lo
anterior y para suplir en parte esta deficiencia de informacion,
se decidio construir un indicador que facilitara el seguimiento
de la tasa de cambio peso-dolar en el mercado libre y permitiera
evaluar el margen de negociacion de tasas entre los dos mercados.
Con tal proposito, a partir de mayo de 2002 la SGEE, con la
colaboracion de las sucursales del Banco, esta llevando a cabo
una encuesta diaria a profesionales de compra y venta de divisas
a nivel nacional, que pregunta por tasa y monto negociado de
divisas en el mercado libre. El objeto del presente documento es
presentar el calculo de la tasa de cambio del mercado libre,
mostrar su comportamiento durante 2003 y lo corrido de 2004 hasta
junio y compararlo con la dinamica de la tasa de cambio del
mercado regulado (TRM para operaciones en efectivo). En la
segunda seccion se describe brevemente la legislacion cambiaria
en lo que concierne a operaciones del mercado libre. En la
tercera se presenta el diseno muestral utilizado para la
encuesta y la metodologia de calculo empleada. La cuarta
seccion, analiza la dinamica del precio de la divisa en el
mercado libre, los resultados del margen de intermediacion de la
negociacion de las divisas entre los dos mercados y la
posibilidad de arbitraje entre los mismos. En la quinta se
hablara sobre negociaciones de divisas entre el mercado regulado
y el libre y, finalmente, se presentan las conclusiones.
Date: 2004-09-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000671&r=all
27. ESTRUCTURA DE COSTOS DE TRANSACCION DE LAS REMESAS DE
TRABAJADORES EN COLOMBIA
Maria Mercedes Collazos
Enrique Montes
Sabtiago Munoz
Con base en la informacion publicada por el Banco de la
Republica sobre los “Principales resultados de la encuesta de
costos de transaccion de remesas de trabajadores” se hace un
analisis de las principales caracteristicas de operacion del
mercado receptor de remesas en Colombia y de sus costos de
transaccion. Se encuentra evidencia de un mercado en proceso de
cambio y con una mayor competencia, aunque todavia presenta
importantes niveles de concentracion. Los costos de envio y
posterior pago de las remesas tanto por comisiones como por
diferencial cambiario se han reducido. Los costos por comisiones,
que son los mas altos, se determinan en el mercado emisor de las
remesas, en tanto que el diferencial cambiario es la principal
fuente de ingresos para las entidades pagadoras. Sin embargo, se
encontro que estas entidades incurren para el pago de los giros
familiares en costos altos y muy diversos.
Keywords: Remesaa de trabajadores,
Date: 2004-09-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000672&r=all
28. INFLATION TARGETING IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY: THE COLOMBIAN
CASE
Franz Hamann
Juan Manuel Julio
Paulina Restrepo
Alvaro Jose Riascos Villegas
This paper presents a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium
model of inflation targeting in small open economy. We calibrate
the model to the Colombian economy and present the response of
some macroeconomic variables to different types of shocks that
are relevant for emerging economies. We also analyze the
sensitivity of those responses to some key parameters.
Furthermore, using simulated data from the model we study the
ability of the model to capture the spectra, the phase and the
coherence of observed output and inflation. We follow a frequency
domain comparison methodology proposed by Diebold, Ohanian and
Berkowitz (1998,[19]). The Colombian data is characterized by:
first, cyclical inflation and output gap (as measured by Hodrick
– Prescott filter) are dominated by periodic movements between
2 and 25 quarters with a peak between 10 and 12 quarters. The
cross spectrum and coherence show results in the the same
direction. Second, the coherence does not show any significant
dominance of frequencies for the cross movements but the
correlation jumps to 0,6 for periodic movements around 5 quarters.
These facts are compared to the data simulated from the model.
We conclude that the simulated data spectra and cross spectra do
not differ statistically from the respective population
quantities for, at least, frequencies beyond 0,05 . Which
correspond to periodic movements of up to at least 10 quarters.
The model spectra presents more persistence than the observed
data the population coherence is captured for most frequencies
but the ones around the peack of the model's theoretical
coherence and very long run periodic movements. Subsequent
research will address these issues.
Date: 2004-09-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000711&r=all
29. LA DEMANDA DE ESPECIES MONETARIAS EN COLOMBIA: ESTRUCTURA Y
PRONOSTICO
Carlos A. Arango A.
Martha A. Misas A.
Juan Nicolas Hernandez
Las tesorerias de los Bancos Centrales enfrentan el problema de
pronosticar las necesidades de especies monetarias requeridas por
los agentes economicos para finalizar sus transacciones. Dichos
pronosticos son utilizados para hacer sus planes a mediano plazo
2 a 3 anos en el caso colombiano) de produccion, e inventarios
de materia prima y unidades terminadas por denominacion. El
objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar distintas tecnicas de
pronostico que sean lo suficientemente flexibles como para
incorporar las innovaciones recientes en los determinantes de la
demanda y la estructura denominacional de las especies monetarias,
y reconocer las posibles no-linealidades en la relacion de
aquellos con el uso del efectivo. La estrategia seguida se basa
en la utilizacion de redes neuronales artificiales (ANN) y
minimos cuadrados flexibles (FLS), dos tecnicas econometricas
bastante robustas frente a cambios estructurales y que permiten
incorporar elementos no-lineales en la modelacion del efectivo.
Date: 2004-09-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000712&r=all
30. EL CREDITO Y SUS FACTORES DETERMINANTES: EL CASO COLOMBIANO
1990-2004)
Luz Adriana Florez
Carlos Esteban Posada
Jose Fernando Escobar
A fin de interpretar el desempeno del credito bancario
observado durante los anos 90 y principios del actual decenio en
Colombia, se construyo un modelo teorico de equilibrio general
dinamico. Ademas, se puso a prueba econometrica la ecuacion
generada en tal modelo que establece una relacion de equilibrio
entre depositos, credito y tasa de interes activa (con datos
del periodo 1990:01 - 2004:04). Las pruebas econometricas y los
impulsos-respuestas (estos ultimos obtenidos gracias a la
metodologia de “tendencias comunes”) permiten considerar
plausibles dos hipotesis: a) existe una relacion de equilibrio
entre depositos, credito y tasa de interes activa como la que
se deduce del modelo teorico, y b) la crisis de finales de los
90 fue una ruptura transitoria del equilibrio y no un cambio
estructural, asi que la situacion actual (junio de 2004) puede
entenderse como una etapa de retorno al equilibrio.
Keywords: Depositos bancarios,
JEL: C22
Date: 2004-10-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000741&r=all
31. LOS PRECIOS Y EL IMPACTO DE LA INDUSTRIA EN EL CRECIMIENTO
ECONOMICO: LOS CASOS INGLES(1770-1840) Y COLOMBIANO(1923-
1998)
Carlos Esteban Posada
Edgar Trujillo
El desarrollo de las actividades industriales puede tener varios
efectos positivos en el crecimiento economico general. En este
ensayo examinamos las consecuencias de un cambio tecnico
industrial en el resto de la economia a traves de su efecto en
los precios de los bienes industriales. Las predicciones de
nuestro ejercicio teorico, basado en un modelo de equilibrio
economico bisectorial, son contrastadas con la evidencia
empirica de dos casos: el ingles (1770-1840) y el colombiano (
1923-1998). En el caso ingles, la evidencia que actualmente se
acepta indica de manera clara que el cambio tecnico en la
industria manufacturera fue un factor importante en la reduccion
de los precios relativos de los bienes industriales y en la
aceleracion del crecimiento del conjunto de la economia desde
fines del siglo XVIII y hasta mediados del XIX, tal como lo
describe nuestro modelo teorico. En el caso colombiano la
evidencia disponible sugiere que el mecanismo previamente
mencionado (cambio tecnico en la actividad manufacturera que
reduce los precios industriales y, por tanto, acelera el
crecimiento economico) solo ha operado de manera esporadica,
con notables y prolongadas interrupciones, y, al menos
aparentemente, con debilidad.
Keywords: Industria,
JEL: L16
Date: 2004-10-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000742&r=all
32. DETERMINANTS OF INVESTMENT FLOWS INTO EMERGING MARKETS
Carlos Andres Amaya G.
Peter Rowland
The understanding of foreign investment flows is important for
emerging market policy makers, since such flows make up a
considerable part of the balance of payments, and since such
flows tend to be very volatile. Sudden stops or reversals of
investment flows have, indeed, played an important part in recent
emerging market crises. This paper presents a study of emerging
market investment flows and their determinants. Using first a
relatively simple cross-country framework to study investment
flows in the year 2000 and then a panel-data framework to study
such flows for the time period 1980 to 1997, a number of
variables emerge as significant in determining investment flows.
In general, large open economies with a high growth rate attract
more flows than small closed economies with a sluggish growth
rate. In addition, the results suggest that sound fiscal policies
together with moderate debt levels results in higher levels of
foreign investment. The business cycle in the developed countries
also has an impact on such flows.
Keywords: Foreign direct investment;
JEL: C33
Date: 2004-10-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000743&r=all
33. A REGIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY FOR COLOMBIA
Juan David Baron
Gerson Javier Perez
Peter Rowland
This paper proposes a framework for a regional economic policy
in Colombia. The regional characteristics and disparities of the
country are studied, and regional disparities are shown to be
both significant and persistent over time. This calls for a
policy initiative to promote the development of the poorer
regions of the country. The study here draws lessons from other
cases of regional economic policy, and proposes a framework based
on the regional policy initiative that is currently being
implemented in Brazil.
Date: 2004-11-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000831&r=all
34. THE COLOMBIAN SOVEREIGN SPREAD AND ITS DETERMINANTS
Peter Rowland
The surge in Colombian sovereign international bond issues
during the 1990s has created an increasing need for the Colombian
Government and the Banco de la Republica to understand the
dynamics and the determinants of the sovereign spread. This is
the first comprehensive study of the Colombian sovereign spread
and its determinants. It shows that contagion and spillovers play
an important part in the determination of the spread,
particularly in the short term. A study of daily spread changes
between 1998 and 2003 using an OLS regression framework finds
contagion, changes in the US stock market and changes in the
Colombian exchange rate to significantly influence the spread. A
study of the long-term determinants of the spread uses a Johansen
framework of multivariate cointegration together with monthly
data from 1998 to 2002, and finds exports, the exchange rate, the
economic growth rate and the US T-Bill rate as significant
explanatory variables of the spread. A weakness of the study, as
with all single-country studies, is that the time period is too
short to study variables published only with annual frequency,
and some such variables have, indeed, by cross-country studies
been shown to significantly influence the spread. Such variables
include, for example, the debt ratio and the debt-service ratio.
Date: 2004-11-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000832&r=all
35. A Framework for Macroeconomic Stability in Emerging Market
Economies
Javier Gomez Pineda
In this paper, sectoral balance sheets and sectoral stock and
flow consistency are embedded into a new open economy model based
on the financial accelerator. The framework has nominal inertia,
real rigidities and market frictions, and it is designed to
evaluate exchange rate risk in the economy and across sectors.
The model is perturbed by a shock to investor sentiment and a
sudden stop to capital inflow. It is used to evaluate the claims
that usually back the fear of floating strategy: the effect of
the exchange rate on foreign debt, and the pass-through of
exchange rate depreciation to inflation. We conclude that fear of
floating, the policy that intends to stabilize foreign debt, is
precisely the policy that leads to a higher increase in the
government debt to GDP ratio. The reason is that, in order to
control the exchange rate, the authorities have to increase
interest rates. While a lower depreciation does contain the level
of debt, it increases the cost of interest on the debt, and this
increases the change in the debt to GDP ratio. The pass-through
does not seem an important argument for fear of floating either.
We also find that under fear of floating the transfer problem is
solved by the private sector alone in the midst of a recession;
and that under floating, the government balance is in surplus
thereby contributing to the transfer.. _______________ *Research
Department, Banco de la Republica (the central bank of Colombia)
jgomezpi@banrep.gov.co. The author would like to thank Lavan
Mahadeva for his comments.
JEL: E
Date: 2004-11-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000851&r=all
36. REAL MACROECONOMIC STABILITY AND THE CAPITAL ACCOUNT IN
CHILE AND COLOMBIA
Leonardo Villar
Ricardo Ffrench-Davis
In 1995, when contagion from the tequila crisis was spreading in
Latin America, both Chile and Colombia were exempt from contagion
and presented high rates of economic growth. Several analysts
attribute this positive performance to the fact that both had
undertaken prudential measures to avoid excessive exposure to
short term capital flows and pressures towards excessive real
exchange rate appreciation: Both countries were using a reserve
requirement on short term foreign indebtedness, crawling-bands,
and other instruments for reducing domestic vulnerability to
capital flows. The parallelism between Chile and Colombia
continued after the Asian crisis. In this period, despite the
fact that short-term liabilities represented only a small share
of foreign debt in both countries, vulnerability to the
international financial crisis was high. In both, real interest
rates rose sharply in 1998 and GDP growth was negative in 1999.
The similarities between Chile and Colombia, however, do not go
much farther. During the 1990s, GDP growth rates were very high
in Chile while in Colombia they were below historical standards.
Chile had fiscal surpluses and high private savings, while in
Colombia there was a rapidly increasing fiscal deficit and
falling domestic savings. This paper presents a comparative
analysis of the macroeconomic policies of Chile and Colombia
during the 1990s, in particular the exchange rate regimes, the
capital account regulations, and the gestation and management of
financial crises.. _______________ Paper prepared for the Project
on Management of Volatility, Financial Globalization and Growth
in Emerging Economies, coordinated by ECLAC with the support of
the Ford Foundation. **Ffrench-Davis is Principal Regional
Adviser of ECLAC and Professor of Economics of Universidad de
Chile. Villar is Co-Director at the Board of Directors of Banco
de la Republica of Colombia and Professor of Economics of
Universidad de los Andes. The authors appreciate the valuable
comments and suggestions of Guillermo Le Fort, Carlos Quenan and
other participants at two ECLAC Seminars in Santiago and at a
technical meeting of G-24 in Geneva. Opinions expressed herein
are exclusively of the authors and not of the institutions in
which they work
Date: 2004-07-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000854&r=all
37. LA POLITICA FISCAL EN EL SIGLO XX EN COLOMBIA
Roberto Junguito
Hernan Rincon
El documento analiza la politica fiscal a lo largo del Siglo XX
en Colombia, con enfasis en los factores economicos y de
economia politica que determinaron los aciertos y las
dificultades fiscales que experimento el pais. Desde el punto
de vista de las estadisticas, se construyen series fiscales
consistentes metodologicamente para el gobierno para el periodo
1899 a 2003. Despues de observar niveles promedio de la carga
tributaria (impuestos nacionales) del alrededor del 5% del PIB
durante el siglo, se presento un cambio positivo significativo
desde mediados de los noventa (la carga alcanzo un nivel del 14%
en 2003). Sin embargo, el cambio se logro a traves de reformas
sucesivas e incompletas que dieron lugar a una estructura
tributaria inadecuada e ineficiente. El gasto del gobierno se
encuentra hoy en dia en el nivel mas alto del siglo, con una
tendencia creciente desde inicios de los noventa, que se explica
principalmente por las transferencias (territoriales, pensionales
y otras) y los intereses de la deuda. Se destaca que las reformas
presupuestales que han buscado flexibilizar y reducir el gasto no
han tenido el exito esperado. Los desbalances fiscales durante
el siglo fueron seguidos de ajustes por el lado de los ingresos y
de los gastos, que hicieron posible el cumplimiento de la
restriccion intertemporal del gobierno, como lo muestra el
comportamiento del nivel de la deuda. El desbalance fiscal
acumulado del gobierno, reflejado en un nivel de la deuda sin
precedentes en el siglo (54% del PIB), demanda reformas
estructurales y ajuste fiscal adicional que la hagan sostenible.
En general, el gobierno ha tenido mas exito en alcanzar ajustes
fiscales por aumentos en los ingresos que a traves de recortes
en los gastos.
Keywords: Politica fiscal;
JEL: N16
Date: 2004-11-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000855&r=all
38. INEFICIENCIA EN LA DISTRIBUCION DE ENERGIA ELECTRICA: UNA
APLICACION DE LAS FUNCIONES DE DISTANCIA ESTOCASTICA
Ligia Melo B.
Nestor Espinosa
Este documento evalua el desempeno de las empresas
distribuidoras de energia durante el periodo 1999-2003,
utilizando la metodologia de funciones de distancia estocastica,
la cual a traves de la estimacion de las desviaciones de una
funcion ideal de produccion, permite medir los niveles de
eficiencia tecnica de las diferentes empresas. Los resultados
indican que existen diferencias significativas en el desempeno
de las empresas, sugiriendo que se podrian obtener importantes
ganancias en terminos de eficiencia tecnica si las empresas
operaran o se acercaran a los niveles de operacion de las mas
eficientes. Estas ganancias se podrian expresar en el ahorro de
recursos, la calidad del servicio y/o en menores niveles de
tarifas a los usuarios finales. Tambien se encontro que el
desempeno de las empresas distribuidoras de energia puede verse
afectado por factores fuera del control de las firmas, tales como
las condiciones geograficas, el numero de usuarios atendidos y
la densidad poblacional. En particular, se encuentra que empresas
con un entorno mas favorable en terminos de densidad
poblacional y/o de los niveles de consumo de los usuarios se ven
favorecidas cuando dichas variables afectan directamente la
tecnologia de produccion. Por otra parte, se observa que las
empresas publicas registran un mejor desempeno cuando las
variables ambientales afectan directamente la eficiencia y no la
funcion de produccion. Estos resultados sugieren que las
empresas privadas se podrian estar beneficiando de condiciones
de entorno mas favorables, teniendo en cuenta que estas, en
promedio atienden areas de mas alta densidad poblacional y
usuarios de consumos mas altos.
Date: 2004-11-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000893&r=all
39. Credito, Represion Financiera y Flujos de Capitales en
Colombia: 1974-2003
Leonardo Villar Gomez
David Salamanca Rojas
Andres Murcia Pabon
Este trabajo analiza los vinculos entre credito domestico,
flujos externos de capital y regulacion financiera en Colombia
en el periodo comprendido entre 1974 y 2003. Para ese proposito
se incluye una vision historica sobre la evolucion de las
variables y se hacen analisis cuantitativos sobre los
determinantes del grado de profundizacion financiera, utilizando
metodos de descomposicion contable y ejercicios econometricos
sencillos. Se observa que los ciclos en el credito domestico al
sector privado en Colombia han coincidido con ciclos en la misma
direccion en los flujos externos de capital. Ese comportamiento
prociclico del credito ha sido reforzado ademas por la
politica de regulacion financiera. Entre 1974 y 1991, la
prociclicidad de la politica surgio fundamentalmente del
comportamiento de los coeficientes de encaje requerido. En el
periodo mas reciente, esos coeficientes se movieron en forma
menos prociclica. Durante la crisis que se inicio en 1998,
incluso, la politica de encajes fue abiertamente contraciclica.
En esta ultima etapa, sin embargo, la introduccion del impuesto
a las transacciones financieras actuo en la direccion contraria
y reforzo la caida en el credito. El resultado neto es que el
grado de profundizacion financiera en Colombia a finales de 2003
se ubicaba por debajo de los niveles que tenia en 1974. Esos
niveles son extremadamente bajos en comparacion con los de
economias desarrolladas o con los de economias en desarrollo
exitosas.
Date: 2005-01-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000946&r=all
40. UN MODELO TEORICO SOBRE CREDITO, REPRESION FINANCIERA Y
FLUJOS DE CAPITAL
Leonardo Villar Gomez
David Salamanca Rojas
En este trabajo se desarrolla un modelo teorico con fundamentos
microeconomicos sobre el funcionamiento del mercado de credito
en una economia abierta. El modelo permite identificar los
canales a traves de los cuales el sistema financiero domestico
puede propagar y amplificar los ciclos inducidos por
fluctuaciones en las tasas de interes internacionales y es
consistente con la observacion empirica de una correlacion
positiva entre el credito en pesos al sector privado y los
flujos de capitales que se puede apreciar en el caso colombiano.
Con base en el modelo se muestra que la utilizacion activa de
los coeficientes de encaje bancario con propositos
contraciclicos, tal como fue sugerida por Edwards y Vegh (1997),
puede ser contraproducente.
Date: 2005-01-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000947&r=all
41. LA INFLACION SUBYACENTE EN COLOMBIA: UN ENFOQUE DE
TENDENCIAS ESTOCASTICAS COMUNES ASOCIADAS A UN VEC
ESTRUCTURAL
Martha Misas A>rango
Enrique Lopez Enciso
Juana Tellez Corredor
Jose Fernando Escobar Restrepo
En este documento se presenta la estimacion de la inflacion
subyacente en Colombia durante el periodo comprendido entre
enero de 1983 y marzo del 2004, obtenida mediante un esquema de
tendencias estocasticas comunes asociadas a un modelo vectorial
de correccion de errores con restricciones de caracter
estructural (SVEC). En el sistema de informacion, la inflacion
subyacente se relaciona de manera directa con el crecimiento de
un agregado monetario amplio, el nivel del producto, los
terminos de intercambio y el crecimiento de los salarios
nominales. La medida resultante de inflacion subyacente
corresponde a la estimacion de largo plazo de la inflacion que
es obtenida mediante el modelo de tendencias estocasticas
comunes. La inflacion subyacente estimada posee las
caracteristicas deseadas en cuanto a varianza y esta
relacionada con el comportamiento de la inflacion observada. Con
el fin de probar las bondades de la metodologia, se calculan dos
series de pronosticos de la inflacion y de la inflacion
subyacente, con sus respectivos intervalos de confianza, mediante
tecnicas de bootstrapping basadas en dos longitudes de muestreo
que son seleccionadas de manera aleatoria.
Date: 2005-01-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000948&r=all
42. TRIBUTACION, EQUIDAD Y EFICIENCIA EN COLOMBIA: Guia para
Salir de un Sistema Tributario Amalgamado
Sergio Clavijo
En este documento pasamos revista a la estructura tributaria
colombiana. Primero, en el contexto de lo que ocurre en America
Latina y, segundo, evaluamos las tendencias historicas en
materia de impuestos nacionales-territoriales, directos-
indirectos y, en particular, la relacion impo-rentapatrimonio.
Nuestro mensaje basico es que solo a traves de una mayor
transparencia y equidad tributaria sera posible equilibrar la
fragil estructura de recaudos que se tiene hoy dia. El actual
sistema tributario es una amalgama insostenible de altas tasas de
impo-renta, con multiples exenciones, y descansa sobre una
legislacion temporal. Todo esto obligara al Estado colombiano a
adoptar soluciones de fondo durante los anos 2005-2006, que
necesariamente implicaran una ampliacion y elevacion de la
tasa de IVA, tal como ocurre en las “socialdemocracias” mas
avanzadas. De no lograrse un mejor balance, es indudable que la
estructura productiva se vera negativamente afectada, con grave
riesgo para nuestra penetracion de los mercados internacionales,
ahora que se avecina la firma de acuerdos comerciales tipo TLC-
ALCA.
Keywords: Tributacion y Recaudos
JEL: H20
Date: 2005-02-28
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000949&r=all
43. EL IMPACTO ECONOMICO DE UN ACUERDO PARCIAL DE LIBRE
COMERCIO ENTRE COLOMBIA Y ESTADOS UNIDOS
Clara Patricia Martin
Juan Mauricio Ramirez
En este trabajo se hace una evaluacion cuantitativa de los
posibles efectos de un acuerdo de libre comercio (TLC) con
Estados Unidos sobre la economia colombiana. Con este objetivo
se utiliza un modelo de equilibrio general que representa el
funcionamiento de la economia colombiana en condiciones de
sustitucion imperfecta entre los bienes domesticos y los bienes
importados y exportados, rigideces salariales en el mercado
laboral, y competencia imperfecta en los sectores industriales.
Los resultados muestran que los efectos de un TLC sobre la
economia colombiana dependen criticamente del grado en el cual
se logren afectar las barreras no arancelarias vigentes en los
Estados Unidos. Un TLC con disminucion en estas barreras no
arancelarias beneficiaria a los mas pobres y tendria un efecto
progresivo sobre la distribucion del ingreso, contrario a lo que
sostienen diferentes criticos. Sin embargo, esto depende del
alcance del acuerdo. En especial, un TLC que mantenga las BNA
sobre el sector agricola en Estados Unidos tendria efectos
negativos sobre los ingresos y el consumo de los trabajadores
rurales, y en general sobre el sector agricola colombiano.
Date: 2005-02-28
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000950&r=all
44. OUTPUT GAP IN COLOMBIA: AN ECLECTIC APPROACH
Adolfo Cobo
In an economy conducted under an Inflation Targeting regime, the
output gap becomes one of the most important variables to guide
monetary policy. Defined as the difference between observed and
potential or non-inflationary output, the gap is a measure of the
state of aggregate demand and, therefore, of inflationary
pressures on the economy. However, this relationship might be
obscured by supply and price shocks, perhaps more relevant in the
case of emerging economies. This paper estimates and evaluates
the output gap for Colombia between 1970 and 2003 using a wide
array of methods that go from univariate approaches such as
Hodrick-Prescott (HP) and Band Pass filters to multivariate or
structural methods obtained by the Kalman filter technique or the
production function approach. We also include some mixed
procedures like the multivariate filter and the prior-consistent
filter. The last one takes into account some supply and price
shocks observed in the Colombian economy since 1990. An
evaluation of the different estimators is made by a simulated out-
of sample forecasting exercise. The results show that
multivariate structural filters have a better performance than
pure mechanical approaches, but the difference is marginal with
respect to a prior-consistent HP filter that takes into account
supply shocks. In general, the forecasting performance of all the
output gaps estimators improves when we re-define core inflation
to exclude some price shocks.
Keywords: Colombia,
JEL: E31
Date: 2005-02-28
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000951&r=all
45. DISINFLATION COSTS UNDER INFLATION TARGETING IN A SMALL OPEN
ECONOMY
Paulina Restrepo Echavarria
Since 1991, inflation in Colombia was reduced from 25% on
average to about 6% more recently. Although this performance is
in line with a long run inflation target of 3%, some analysts ask
whether the Central Bank should continue ting. In this paper we
present a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of
inflation targeting for a small open economy to answer this
question. We calibrate the model to the Colombian economy and
compute the welfare cots and benefits of achieving the long run
inflation target. We find that the long run welfare gains are
about 4.54% in terms of capital. Furthermore,accounting for the
transition the welfare gains are about 1.18% in terms of capital.
Our results differ from previous findings because transition
costs are introduced and our environment considers the presence
of real rigidities (monopolistic competition) and nominal
rigidities (sticky information) in a small open economy.We also
analyze the sensitivity of the results to some key parameters and
conclude that higher price flexibility leads to lower gains from
reducing inflation and that a country with markups around 15%
receives higher gains than those countries with different levels
of markups. The weight given to the inflation gap in the monetary
policy rule is important, as a more aggressive Central Bank can
improve welfare. Finally,we find that disinflation is more
expensive in the case of a closed economy.
Keywords: Small Open Economy;
JEL: E31
Date: 2005-02-28
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000952&r=all
46. EFECTOS DE LAS FUSIONES SOBRE EL MERCADO FINANCIERO
COLOMBIANO
Dairo Estrada
Este trabajo examina los efectos de las fusiones en el sistema
bancario sobre la eficiencia del sistema y los precios. Se
encuentra que los bancos que han atravesado procesos de fusiones
pueden experimentar mejoras en los indices de eficiencia en
beneficios. Estas mejoras en eficiencia fueron superiores para
aquellos bancos que presentaban rankings de eficiencia mas bajos
antes de la fusion. Adicionalmente,los efectos sobre cambios en
los precios resultaron no reflejar comportamientos colusivos por
parte de los bancos en el mercado de depositos.
Keywords: Bancos,
JEL: L11
Date: 2005-02-28
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000953&r=all
47. EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH EFFECTS : A DISAGGREGATE ANALYSIS
OF COLOMBIAN IMPORTS OF MANUFACTURED GOODS
Hernan Rincon
Edgar Caicedo
Norberto Rodriguez
Colombian monthly data covering the period from 1995:01 to 2002:
11 and ECM, fixed and time-varying parameters and Kalman filter
techniques are used in this paper to quantify the exchange rate
pass-through effects on import prices within a sample of
manufactured imports. Also, whether the foreign exchange and
inflation regimes affect the degree of pass-through is evaluated.
The analytical framework used was a mark-up model. The main
finding is that the long-run pass-through elasticities for the
industries in the sample are stable and go from 0.1 to 0.8 and
the short-run ones are unstable and go from 0.1 to 0.7,
supporting mark-up hypotheses, in contrast to the hypotheses of
perfect market competition and complete pass-through. The
findings also show evidence of the variability and different
degrees of pass-trough among manufacturing sectors, which confirm
the importance of using dynamic models and disaggregate data for
an analysis of the pass-through. Both, the hypothesis that under
a floating regime there is a low degree of pass-through and the
hypothesis that a low inflation environment has the same result
are not supported.
Keywords: Pass-through effects;
JEL: F31
Date: 2005-03-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000954&r=all
48. DETERMINANTS OF SPREAD , CREDIT RATING AND CREDITWORTHINESS
FOR EMERGING MARKET SOVEREIGN DEBT: A PANEL DATA STUDY
Peter Rowland
The study presented here is a follow-up study to Rowland and
Torres (2004), who used a panel data framework together with data
from 16 emerging market issuers to identify the determinants of
the spread and the creditworthiness. Since many new issuers of
emerging market sovereign debt have emerged recently, we can by
using data from one single point in time, end of July 2003,
expand our country set to 29 for the analysis of the spread and
around 50 for the analysis of the credit ratings and the
creditworthiness. We will use an OLS regression framework for the
empirical analysis. The study identifies some seven variables
that play a role in determining ratings, creditworthiness and
spreads. These include the GDP per capita, the economic growth
rate, the inflation rate, external-debt ratios, debt-service
ratios, the level of international reserves, and the openness of
the economy. Emerging market policy makers and investors should
pay extra attention to these variables when defining economic
policies and evaluating bond issues.
Date: 2004-07-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000070:000956&r=all
49. Child labour and the economic recession of 1999 in Colombia.
Claudia Marcela Umana
This paper examines the relationship between economic growth,
households’ income, child labour and school attendance in
Colombia. It also analyses the impact of the economic recession
of 1999 on child labour and education. An important contribution
of this paper is the use of micro and macro data in the
estimation of the empirical models, since they allow analysing
micro and macro sources of child labour. The results show that
both households’ earnings and economic growth are relevant for
the families’ decision-making process regarding education or
labour activities of their children. I find that, in Colombia,
child labour is contra-cyclical and education is pro-cyclical to
economic growth. Therefore, higher levels of social income
increase the children’s welfare providing them with more
education and less economic responsibilities. This implies that
the main reason why children work in Colombia is poverty. The
late nineties’ economic crisis impact on child labour and
education was a sharp increase of children in the labour force
and a slight decrease of school attendance.
Date: 2004-01-16
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000107:000179&r=all
50. El origen politico del deficit fiscal en Colombia: El
contexto institucional 20 anos despues
Eduardo WIESNER DURAN
El presente articulo desarrolla la tesis que la Constitucion
de 1991 elevo el gasto publico total a niveles no sostenibles
generando serios problemas fiscales que no han podido ser
corregidos en su raiz estructural. La gran limitante a esta
correccion ha sido la insuficiencia de apoyo politico para
proteger la estabilidad macroeconomica del pais y verla como un
patrimonio politico “comun” a todos los ciudadanos. Esta
situacion ha sido agravada por recientes fallos de la Corte
Constitucional que interfieren con las leyes de ajuste fiscal.
Dentro de este contexto la independencia del Banco de la
Republica ha sido un avance de enorme beneficio al desarrollo
institucional del marco macroeconomico en general.
Keywords: Estado Social de Derecho
Date: 2004-04-02
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000107:000387&r=all
51. Una aproximacion de los efectos del ALCA sobre las
Importaciones de Colombia.
Ricardo Ernesto ROCHA GARCIA
Juan Ricardo PERILLA JIMENEZ
Ramiro LOPEZ SOLER
Una estimacion de los efectos que se derivarian del ALCA con
una eventual eliminacion del AEC sobre los precios y cantidades
de las importaciones de Venezuela y los Estados Unidos. Empleando
la econometria de panel para el periodo 1994-2002 se estimaron
modelos competencia a la Bertrand y Cournot para las
importaciones de ambos paises, en funcion de los respectivos
aranceles, tasas de cambio, costos de produccion y la demanda de
Colombia. Los resultados permiten estimar un efecto neto positivo
sobre el valor de las importaciones provenientes de ambos paises
por US 159 millones anuales, es decir, un 3,3%, debido al efecto
conjunto de repunte en el valor de las importaciones de los EEUU
y al.menor valor de las compras a Venezuela La mayor parte de los
efectos corresponden a ajustes en cantidades y se concentran en
las importaciones destinadas a la industria como materias primas
y bienes de capital, como resultado de las elasticidades
estimadas y de la estructura de comercio.
Keywords: ALCA
Date: 2004-05-17
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000107:000388&r=all
52. ?Que es el sector de servicios, como se regula, como se
comercia y cual es su impacto en la economia?
Paula JARAMILLO V
La importancia del sector de servicios dentro de la produccion
y el comercio ha venido creciendo en las ultimas decadas.
Ademas, el desarrollo del sector ha tenido implicaciones
directas sobre el resto de la economia, ya que es un
intermediario importante en la produccion de otros bienes. Como
consecuencia, la liberalizacion de este sector dentro del marco
de un acuerdo comercial, tiene implicaciones diferentes sobre la
economia que la negociacion solo de acceso a mercados en
bienes. Este trabajo muestra las particularidades del sector de
servicios en terminos de su produccion, regulacion y comercio.
Adicionalmente, hace un resumen de la literatura en cuanto a la
forma de cuantificar las barreras a los servicios y los
resultados que se han obtenido al estudiar las implicaciones de
una liberalizacion del sector en la economia.
Keywords: Comercio Internacional
Date: 2004-05-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000107:000389&r=all
53. Endeudamiento privado externo y regimen cambiario: Un
modelo para paises en desarrollo. Trabajo para optar al
titulo de Economista en la Esc
Juan Carlos CASTRO FERNANDEZ
En el presente escrito se busca averiguar la naturaleza del
vinculo que existe entre inestabilidad financiera y regimen
cambiario. Para esto se hace una revision de la literatura sobre
crisis financiera y cambiaria, buscando determinar como ha sido
abordado el problema de la ocurrencia de crisis. los modelos
encontrados fueron clasificados de acuerdo a la fuente de
inestabilidad del sistema y la naturaleza endogena o exogena
del detonador de la crisis. Luego en el segundo capitulo se
elabora un modelo agregado que busca establecer si existe mayor
inestabilidad financiera bajo regimen de tipo de cambio flexible
que bajo paridades fijas, a partir de una estructura basada en la
teoria de inestabilidad financiera de Hyman Minsky. Segun esta
es el proceso financiero propio de la economia capitalista
genera inestabilidad, puesto que la inversion se financia con
endeudamiento. Al final, se llega a la conclusion de que, per se,
no existe un regimen cambiario que resulte ser mas propenso a
las crisis financieras. Esto depende de la situacion de la
economia, especialmente de la inercia del tipo de cambio y de su
elasticidad al ingreso. Tambien ejerce influencia la elasticidad
ingreso de las importaciones. De modo que, una economia no puede
saber, ex ante, cual arreglo cambiario le conviene mas, desde
el punto de vista de la fragilidad financiera.
Keywords: Inestabilidad financiera
Date: 2004-05-03
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000107:000390&r=all
54. El secuestro en Colombia:Caracterizacion y costos
economicos.
Maria Eugenia PINTO BORREGO
Ivette Maria ALTAMAR CONSUEGRA
Yilberto LAHUERTA PERCIPIANO
Luis fernando CEPEDA ZULETA
El delito del secuestro en Colombia ha presentado una tendencia
creciente en la ultima decada. Este instrumento de guerra
utilizado por distintos actores armados, tiene un alto impacto en
diversas esferas de la sociedad; pues se han visto implicados
sectores economicos, sociales y politicos. Por ello, con el
objetivo de mostrar este impacto y realizar una caracterizacion
del secuestro, basados en la informacion suministrada por
Fondelibertad, el Grupo de Gobierno y Asuntos Internos, realiza
este estudio donde examina la evolucion del delito en el pais,
las distintas modalidades con que se manifiesta, para concluir
con un analisis de los costos directos e indirectos que
involucra esta violacion a la libertad personal en Colombia.
Entre los hallazgos de esta investigacion, se puede senalar que
entre 1996 y 2003 se registraron en Colombia 21.078 secuestros,
incluidos secuestros simples, extorsivos, a miembros de la Fuerza
Publica y algunos otros sin establecer. Los departamentos mas
afectados por este fenomeno, fueron Antioquia, Cesar, Valle del
Cauca, Santander y Cundinamarca, siendo los principales autores
las guerrillas de las Farc y el ELN. Por otra parte, el estudio
establece que la mayoria de las personas secuestradas son
hombres casados o en union libre, cuya edad oscila entre 24 y 55
anos. Mostrando que el tiempo promedio de cautiverio no supera
el mes, y el rescate pagado por su liberacion no sobrepasa los
50 millones de pesos. Finalmente, el articulo sostiene que las
personas vinculadas al sector privado e independiente de la
economia son las mas afectadas por el secuestro; y que, en su
orden, los comerciantes, profesionales, menores, politicos,
ganaderos y servidores publicos ocupan la mayor participacion
en los casos reportados.
Keywords: secuestro
Date: 2004-06-09
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000107:000748&r=all
55. Privatizacion de centros de reclusion en Colombia.
Jhonn Fredy REY BARBOSA
En este documento de trabajo se presenta un analisis critico
en relacion con la viabilidad institucional para llevar a cabo
un proceso de privatizacion de los servicios penitenciarios y
carcelarios en los centros de reclusion colombianos. Partiendo
de la delimitacion de lo que la privatizacion significaria en
el sistema penitenciario y carcelario, se hace una revision de
las experiencias internacionales en la materia con el proposito
de identificar los rasgos institucionales subyacentes a los
resultados y lecciones obtenidas. Finalmente, se caracterizan de
las condiciones institucionales colombianas a partir de la
revision de las experiencias nacionales en celebracion de
contratos para la participacion privada en infraestructura y en
regulacion de servicios publicos. Estas condiciones y el
contexto en el cual se inscriben, en su etapa actual de
desarrollo, no presentan los rasgos requeridos para que un
proceso de privatizacion de los servicios penitenciarios y
carcelarios produzca los beneficios esperados para el sistema
penitenciario y carcelario.
Keywords: centros de reclusion
Date: 2004-06-15
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000107:000749&r=all
56. Anatomia de la cadena de prestacion de salud en Colombia
en el regimen contributivo.
Yuri GORBANEFF
Sergio TORRES
Nelson CONTRERAS
El sistema de prestacion de salud en el regimen contributivo
en Bogota se analiza como una cadena productiva de prestacion de
servicios. Se identifican los miembros primarios y secundarios de
la cadena, su estructura vertical y horizontal y los procesos
transversales que se dan en la cadena. La descripcion de la
cadena permite identificar el problema principal que la aqueja:
altos costos de transaccion que dificultan el funcionamiento del
mecanismo de precios y hacen imposible la competencia perfecta.
Debido a los altos costos de transaccion se imponen formas de
organizacion hibridas. Se plantean temas de la futura
investigacion con mitras a optimizar las formas de gobernacion
de las transacciones, abaratar los costos del sistema y liberar
recursos para el regimen subsidiado.
Keywords: cadena productiva
Date: 2004-06-22
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000107:000750&r=all
57. Balanza de Pagos de Colombia. Metodologia y resultados 1994-
2002
Angela Patricia JIMENEZ SIERRA
Este documento tiene por objeto dar a conocer la metodologia y
resultados de la balanza de pagos. Adicionalmente se presentan
definiciones conceptuales y metodologicas de la actual
estructura de la balanza de pagos y se describen de manera
general los principales cambios en su estructura. Una vez
revisada la parte teorica y conceptual del cambio efectuado con
la nueva metodologia, se analiza el estado actual de la
informacion, encontrandose la necesidad de hacer especial
enfasis en el tema de Inversion Privada en Infraestructura,
para el mejoramiento del seguimiento y proyeccion de los pasivos
de largo plazo de la cuenta de capital y financiera de la balanza
de pagos de Colombia.
Keywords: Balanza de Pagos
Date: 2004-07-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000107:000751&r=all
58. Calculo del PIB Potencial en Colombia.:1970-2003
Jorge Ivan RODRIGUEZ MUNOZ
Juan Ricardo PERILLA JIMENEZ
Jose Daniel REYES PENA
Este trabajo estima el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) potencial
bajo diferentes metodologias y periodicidad de las series
estadisticas utilizadas. Particularmente se analiza sobre una
base de datos trimestral la relacion existente entre el empleo y
el producto y la relacion capital-producto y sobre series con
periodicidad anual se emplean funciones de produccion tipo Cobb-
Douglas y CES. Para estas dos ultimas alternativas se calculan
dos escenarios de acuerdo a si existe una tasa natural de
desempleo en Colombia o a si existe un proceso de histeresis en
el mercado laboral colombiano. Finalmente, se utilizan las
estimaciones obtenidas en las funciones de produccion para hacer
proyecciones sobre el crecimiento del PIB observado y el PIB
potencial para el ano 2004. Se concluye que las estimaciones de
PIB potencial no difieren demasiado entre las dos funciones
utilizadas, que existe evidencia de rendimientos constantes a
escala para la economia colombiana, y que actualmente la
economia se encuentra por debajo de su PIB potencial, pero que
se aproxima a el. Finalmente, el pronostico del crecimiento del
PIB para el 2004, segun las metodologias exploradas en este
articulo, estarian en el rango de 3.8% a 4.4%.
Keywords: Funcion de Produccion
Date: 2004-07-09
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000107:000752&r=all
59. Liberalizacion de los servicios de Telecomunicaciones.:en
Colombia.
Zenaida Maria ACOSTA DE VALENCIA
Este estudio pretende ilustrar el proceso de liberalizacion de
los servicios de telecomunicaciones que ha emprendido Colombia y
su incidencia sobre los acuerdos de integracion que en la
actualidad adelanta el pais. En este sentido, comprende cinco
secciones de las cuales la primera es esta introduccion, en la
segunda se hace un analisis del panorama mundial, en la tercera
se analizan los cambios en la regulacion nacional y su impacto
sobre algunas variables, en la cuarta seccion se mira el sector
desde la perspectiva multilateral y bajo la optica de un Acuerdo
de Libre Comercio con Estados Unidos y finalmente se presentan
las conclusiones.
Keywords: telecomunicaciones
Date: 2004-07-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000107:000753&r=all
60. Movilidad intergeneracional en Colombia.
Katherine CARTAGENA PIZARRO
Este trabajo analiza la movilidad educativa entre generaciones
en Colombia desde 1915 hasta el ano 2003. A traves de un nuevo
indice mide la movilidad intergeneracional ascendente, entendida
como la probabilidad neta que los hijos superen la educacion de
sus padres. El analisis muestra un considerable aumento de la
educacion entre generaciones y senala una disminucion en el
ritmo de crecimiento de la movilidad intergeneracional desde
mediados de la decada de los anos setenta. Esto podria
explicarse, entre otros factores, por el descenso en los retornos
de la educacion. Finalmente sugiere la existencia de
imperfecciones en el mercado para el financiamiento de la
educacion superior. Palabras claves: educacion, capital humano,
movilidad educativa intergeneracional, retornos de la educacion,
imperfecciones del mercado de credito, desempleo.
Keywords: education
Date: 2004-08-11
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000107:000754&r=all
61. A real Financial Social Accounting Matrix for Colombia.
Claudio Rene KARL ESTUPINAN
This working paper presents a 2000 Financial Social Accounting
Matrix (FSAM) for Colombia. The matrix has an
activitiescommodities structure, characterized by 59 sectors and
goods, three production factors, one household aggregation, one
public sector and a detailed financial sector. The financial
accounts included in the FSAM are based on the monetary
aggregates produced by the Central Bank while the real accounts
are based on the information produced by the Department of
National Statistics.
Keywords: financial social accounting matrix
Date: 2004-08-18
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000107:000755&r=all
62. Regulacion de los servicios de transporte en Colombia y
Comercio Internacional.
Zenaida ACOSTA DE VALENCIA
Este informe trata fundamentalmente la importancia de los
servicios de transporte en el desarrollo del comercio exterior
del pais haciendo referencia a cada uno de los modos de
transporte, su incidencia, su nivel de competencia y las barreras
que aun persisten. El documento esta dividido 5 partes, de las
cuales la primera es esta introduccion, la segunda, es una
breve exposicion sobre la tendencia y evolucion de los
servicios de transporte en el mundo. En la tercera parte se hace
alusion a la organizacion y estructura de los servicios de
transporte en Colombia, el nivel de competencia de cada uno de
los modos y el tipo de regulacion conveniente. La cuarta parte
se refiere a los servicios de transporte en el marco de los
Acuerdos de Libre Comercio.
Keywords: servicio de transporte
Date: 2004-08-23
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000107:000756&r=all
63. Proceso de internacionalizacion de los servicios de
ensenanza en Colombia.
Zenaida ACOSTA DE VALENCIA
Este estudio ilustra el proceso de internacionalizacion de los
servicios de ensenaza en Colombia asi como, los esfuerzos que
ha realizado el Estado para adaptar su legislacion al nuevo
orden mundial y los retos y oportunidades que implican los
Acuerdos de Integracion que actualmente se adelantan. En este
sentido, el documento comprende una introduccion y tres
secciones de desarrollo. La primera seccion hace referencia a la
estructura de los servicios de ensenanza en el mundo, asi como
la tendencia internacional; la segunda hace lo propio con
respecto a Colombia.
Keywords: servicio de ensenanza
Date: 2004-08-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000107:000757&r=all
64. Restricciones al comercio de servicios de salud.
Alejandra Maria RANGEL PALOMINO
En esta monografia, se caracteriza el servicio de salud,
mencionando sus particularidades y las principales fallas de
mercado. Ademas, se realizara una investigacion sobre el
estado actual del comercio de la salud en el mundo, describiendo
cada uno los modos de prestacion de los servicios y los factores
que los afectan. Se aborda tambien el tema de la oferta nacional
de exportadores de servicios de salud, sus antecedentes y
evolucion del mercado, y algunos aspectos relevantes para el
comercio, como las fortalezas del pais en la prestacion de
servicios de salud de alta complejidad. Finalmente, se discute
sobre la evaluacion de la presencia de barreras detectadas para
cada forma de prestacion de los servicios en los TLC mas
recientes de los Estados Unidos (TLC Chile, TLC Singapore, Nafta);
que sirvan de guia a Colombia en la negociacion de los futuros
acuerdos (TLC, ALCA).
Keywords: Comercio exterior
Date: 2004-09-16
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000107:000758&r=all
65. Disability and Social Policy: An Evaluation of the Colombian
Legislation on Disability.
Adriana GONZALEZ SANTANDER
This thesis studies the evolution of disability policy in
Colombia from 1980 to 2002 based on national laws and regulations.
The study evaluates legislation through the Comparative
Disability Policy Framework proposed by Silverstein (2000) in
order to determine whether the Colombian laws promote and apply
an integrated national policy to benefit people with disabilities.
In addition the extent to which general and disability-specific
policies and programs in Colombia reflect the new paradigm of
disability and the goals of disability policy (equality in
opportunity, full participation, independent living, and economic
self-sufficiency) are considered. The analysis indicates that the
number of laws is not an accurate indicator of the adequacy of
disability policy. Legislation in Colombia only fulfills some of
the goals of disability policy. There is no legislation intended
for the independent living of people with disabilities and most
statutes only recognize civil rights for people with disabilities
but fail to specify the actions and mechanisms needed to put
those rights in practice. Required is greater advocacy by the
disabled community focused on improving the design and
implementation of public policy to challenge disability attitudes
in favor of a meaningful integration of this community in
mainstream society.
Keywords: disability
Date: 2004-09-20
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000107:000759&r=all
66. Esquemas de incentivos para la Carrera Docente.
Claudia Marcela UMANA
El esquema tradicional de remuneracion a la carrera docente se
ha basado en un sistema de categorias salariales en las cuales
los unicos requisitos para ascender son los anos de experiencia
y la acumulacion de creditos educativos1 sin que esta
remuneracion este ligada a los resultados laborales o a la
productividad de los docentes. Como alternativa a este sistema,
diversos paises han empezado a implementar durante la ultima
decada programas o esquemas de incentivos para docentes con el
fin de mejorar la calidad de la educacion. Los Gobiernos han
reconocido que los incentivos ofrecidos a los docentes pueden
generar mayor compromiso en el desarrollo de su labor y de esta
forma la calidad educativa se incrementa. Estos nuevos esquemas,
generalmente, estan atados a algun tipo de indicador o
evaluacion (para estudiantes o docentes) que se pueda medir y de
esta forma fijar puntos de partida y metas del desempeno docente.
El resultado se contrasta con una condicion inicial (
previamente determinada) para poder otorgar las retribuciones o
incentivos objetivamente a quienes hayan logrado o superado la
meta. El incentivo monetario se considera como un “premio”
para el buen desempeno. A pesar de su importancia, este tipo de
incentivos no han sido estudiados extensivamente en el mundo y
mas aun no han tenido un fundamento teorico formal. En su gran
mayoria han sido experimentos empiricos que en algunos paises
o regiones han sido exitosos y en otros han fracasado. A traves
de estos experimentos algunos autores han identificado
lineamientos generales a traves de los cuales una politica de
incentivos podria ser exitosa. Otros estudios se han basado
unicamente en describir y evaluar el impacto de las politicas
de incentivos en aquellos paises donde fueron aplicados.
Keywords: Educacion
Date: 2004-10-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000107:000856&r=all
67. Monografia del sector de electricidad y gas colombiano.
Condiciones actuales y retos futuros.
Ana Maria SANDOVAL
Durante los ultimos anos, el sector de Energia y Gas ha
venido ganando cada vez mas importancia tanto a nivel nacional
como internacional. En Colombia, la creciente conciencia de la
necesidad por contar con una matriz energetica eficiente ha
motivado diversas reformas estructurales y regulatorias, que se
han reflejado en el desarrollo de programas y planes nacionales
para la racionalizacion del uso de energia electrica y la
masificacion del uso del gas. Este proceso de transformacion y
expansion del sector, que adquirio real dinamismo y
profundizacion a principios de la decada de 1990 con las
reformas introducidas por la Constitucion de 1991, ha conducido
a diversos avances en materia de estructura normativa y
regulatoria, asi como en infraestructura de transporte y
distribucion, y ha dado lugar al desarrollo de unos sectores
mas dinamicos y eficientes, en donde la participacion privada
es cada vez mas fuerte. En este sentido, ha permitido dar los
primeros pasos hacia la consolidacion de un sector realmente
competitivo, con un claro potencial para expandir sus operaciones
a la totalidad de la poblacion nacional e incursionar en
mercados externos. Hoy en dia, uno de los objetivos centrales de
la politica sectorial, tanto a nivel nacional como regional,
consiste en el desarrollo de una interconexion energetica entre
Colombia y sus paises vecinos. En particular, el establecimiento
de intercambios comerciales constantes de energia electrica y
Gas entre los paises de la zona es un proceso que ya ha dado los
primeros pasos y adquiere cada vez mas dinamismo y atencion,
tanto por parte de los gobiernos como de los agentes privados
involucrados en el sector. Sin embargo, a pesar del interes por
llevar a cabo la interconexion energetica internacional,
evidente en los diversos avances en matera regulatoria y
operativa que se han realizado en este sentido, existen aun
diversas trabas al comercio, las cuales dificultan la
integracion y imitan los beneficios potenciales que esta podria
generar para los paises involucrados. A lo largo de este
documento se busca realizar un recuento global de la evolucion
del sector de Energia y Gas en Colombia durante las ultimas
decadas, describir su situacion actual y plantear los retos y
oportunidades que enfrenta en el futuro. Para ello, se analizara
la evolucion estructural y operativa de los subsectores de
Energia y Gas en Colombia, haciendo enfasis en las diferentes
etapas de la historia de planeacion y regulacion y su impacto
sobre el desarrollo de las diferentes actividades economicas
involucradas. Asi mismo, se examinara la situacion actual de
integracion sectorial a nivel regional, identificando las
fortalezas y beneficios potenciales, asi como los puntos
debiles, sobre los cuales aun debe trabajarse para lograr una
real y ficiente integracion. Por ultimo, se plantean algunas
estrategias, tanto de corte politico y normativo como operativo,
que podrian conducir a la consolidacion de un sector de
Energia y Gas cada vez mas competitivo, con capacidad para
expandir sus operaciones a nivel nacional e internacional de
manera eficiente, equitativa y sostenible.
Keywords: energia
Date: 2004-11-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000107:000858&r=all
68. Pronosticos de la Produccion industrial. Indice de
produccion real.
Constanza MARTINEZ VENTURA
La importancia del sector industrial dentro de la produccion
nacional, asi como la dinamica que este genera sobre otros
sectores hace que el estudio de su evolucion sea muy importante
en la toma de decisiones de los agentes y el gobierno; ya que la
industria se considera como un indicador consistente del
desempeno economico. Parte importante de estos estudios debe
encaminarse hacia el planteamiento de modelos de pronostico como
herramienta de analisis sectorial, con el fin de contar con
elementos concretos sobre el desempeno economico futuro. En
este documento se presenta un enfoque de series de tiempo sobre
la produccion industrial colombiana a partir de la informacion
de la Muestra Mensual Manufacturera.
Keywords: produccion industrial
Date: 2004-11-12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000107:000859&r=all
69. Modelos de Pronostico para el PIB de los Establecimientos
Financieros, seguros, inmuebles y servicios a las empresas.
Victor German HERNANDEZ RUIZ
En este documento se ajustan, un modelo ARIMA, un modelo
estructural y modelos multivariados VAR y VEC, para la serie del
PIB que se obtiene de la suma del PIB de intermediacion
financiera con la serie del PIB de servicios a las empresas.
Adicionalmente, se presenta un modelo ARIMA para la serie de
servicios inmobiliarios. Con los modelos identificados se busca
realizar proyecciones de estos sectores, mas que establecer
algun tipo de relacion entre variables.
Keywords: modelos de pronostico
Date: 2004-12-09
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000107:000860&r=all
70. Economic Growth and the Household Optimal Income Tax Evasion.
Oscar Mauricio VALENCIA ARANA
This paper presents an analysis of the relationship between
economic growth and income tax evasion. For this purpose we
constructed a dynamic model with human capital in which income
tax evasion is endogenous. The model captures the effects of
income tax evasion on economic growth through three channels: 1)
Income tax evasion alters the optimal path of consumption and
savings 2) income tax evasion generates labor market distortions;
3) returns on assets are affected when tax evasion occurs. The
concept of optimal policy against evasion is introduced. Based on
the Ramsey policy approach, the income tax evasion is
reformulated as particular case of endogenous incompleteness tax
code. In this case, we found that the optimal income tax rate in
the steady-state is different to zero. The model was calibrated
for the 2000 Colombian economy. Counterfactual experiments show
that different enforcement policies based on an increased
probability of detection and punishment have a positive impact on
welfare and growth. On the other hand, as income tax evasion
increases so the capital cost goes up, the labor supply is
reduced and economic growth and welfare decreases.
Keywords: Income Tax Evasion
Date: 2004-12-28
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000107:000874&r=all
71. Eficiencia -X en el sector bancario colombiano.
Carlos Alberto CASTRO
Este Articulo utilizo la metodologia de Frontera Estocastica
y especi…camente el “Distribution Free Approach”(DFA) para
obtener una medida de E…ciencia horizontal, para un Panel de
entidades del sector bancario colombiano, durante el periodo de
1994 a 1999. Se utilizo una serie de variables exogenas,
representativas de las caracteristicas del sector bancario
colombiano, para encontrar los determinantes de las diferencias
en e…ciencia entre las entidades bancarias. El articulo
encuentra evidencia para cuestionar las habilidades de la
administracion publica para controlar los costos en este tipo
de entidades, al comparar el desempeno de este tipo de entidades
con las entidades privadas nacionales y las extranjeras.
Adicionalmente se examinan los efectos sobre la e…ciencia de
algunos de los procesos de reestructuracion en las entidades
bancarias a …nales de los noventa. Los resultados sugieren que
los bene…cios esperados de las fusiones no son evidentes en
todas las entidades analizadas.
Keywords: sector bancario
Date: 2004-11-06
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000107:000891&r=all
72. Forms of Participatory Democracy: An Analytical Framework
Based on the Experiences of Bolivia, Brazil and Colombia
Clemente Forero
Carlos Eduardo Sepulveda
A partir de la experienca de Colombia, Brasil y Bolivia, el
articulo propone un marco de analisis general de esquemas de
democracia participativa. El analisis esta orientado a detectar
los incentivos presentes en cada uno de los sistemas y la etica
y el comportamiento que sostiene estas instituciones. Investiga
ademas su sostenibilidad al enfrentar tensiones en su
interaccion con la democracia representativa. El articulo
presenta un marco teorico a partir de estas experiencias de
diseno institucional y practicas politicas, y su comparacion
con las conceptualizaciones teoricas de la democracia
participativa de Bobbio, Sartori, Elster y Nino, entre otros. En
este analisis se resaltan las diferentes maneras en que tales
sistemas politicos son introducidos, asi como las variables que
resultan de la combinacion entre democraica directa,
participativa y representativa.
Keywords: democracia
JEL: D70
Date: 2004-11-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000116:000896&r=all
73. PRODUCTIVIDAD, EFICIENCIA, Y TECNOLOGIAS DE LA INFORMACION
Luis Fernando Gamboa Nino
Jorge Pena Izquierdo
Este trabajo estudia la contribucion de las tecnologias de la
informacion y de la comunicacion al crecimiento de la industria
espanola, durante el periodo 1990-1999. Se aplica la
descomposicion del crecimiento de Solow (1957) y para el
analisis de productividad se usa la metodologia de fronteras
estocasticas. Se encuentra que la mayor contribucion es en la
produccion de las ramas TIC-manufacturas y estas no tienen
efectos spillover significativos. Tambien se destaca el escaso
efecto sobre la productividad del progreso tecnico incorporado
en capital fisico. We study the effect of the Information and
Communication technologies on the Spanish Industry growth during
1990-1999. We use Solow (1957) approach and stochastical
frontiers for measuring productivity. We find that the main
contribution is in the production and there are no spillover
effects. We also find a no-significative impact of the technical
progress on capital.
Keywords: Information and Communication Technologies
Date: 2004-12-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000116:000897&r=all
74. A JUMP TELEGRAPH MODEL FOR OPTION PRICING
Nikita Ratanov
In this paper we introduce a financial market model based on
continuous time random motions with alternating constant
velocities and with jumps occurring when the velocity switches.
If jump directions are in the certain correspondence with the
velocity directions of the underlying random motion with respect
to the interest rate, the model is free of arbitrage. The
replicating strategies for options are constructed in details.
Closed form formulas for the option prices are obtained. En este
trabajo se presenta un modelo de mercado financiero basado en
movimientos aleatorios de tiempo continuo con velocidades
constantes alternantes que ocurren cuando cambia la velocidad. Si
las direcciones de los saltos se encuentran en determinada
correspondencia con las direcciones de velocidad de los
movimientos aleatorios subyacentes con respecto a la tasa de
interes, entonces el modelo esta libre de arbitraje. Las
replicas de estrategias para opciones se construyen en detalle.
Se obtienen formulas de forma cerrada para los precios de las
opciones.
JEL: G14
Date: 2004-11-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000116:000899&r=all
75. LA DINAMICA DE LAS PUBLICACIONES Y LAS PATENTES COMO UNA
Clemente Forero
Andres Zambrano
The purpose of this paper is to propose a characterization,
different from the traditional ones, of developed and developing
countries, in terms of science and technology. First, we identify
the generating processes of the publication and patent series of
the countries. Then we relate the development stages of the
countries (Banze (2000)) with the dynamics of the series. The
results show that is not necessary to have a strong scientific
infrastructure in order to develop the technological field. For
some countries, the technological innovation is the mean
responsible of the national system of innovation trajectory. El
objetivo de este documento es proponer una caracterizacion,
distinta a las convencionales, de paises desarrollados y en
desarrollo, en terminos de ciencia y tecnologia. En primer
lugar, identificamos los procesos generadores de las
publicaciones y las patentes de los paises. Luego relacionamos
las etapas de desarrollo de los paises (Banze (2000)) con la
dinamica encontrada en las series. Los resultados indican que no
es necesario tener una infraestructura cientifica fuerte para
desarrollar el ambito tecnologico. Para algunos paises, es la
innovacion tecnologica la principal responsable de la
trayectoria del sistema nacional de innovacion.
Keywords: series de tiempo
JEL: C22
Date: 2004-11-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000116:000900&r=all
76. Sector agricola y politica de competencia
Ricardo Arguello
Los procesos de integracion economica han puesto en evidencia
que la separacion tradicionalmente hecha entre las politicas
comercial y de competencia no solo es ficticia, sino que
mantenerla es simplemente contradictorio con la realidad de la
economia internacional. En la medida en que los mercados
domesticos se han abierto al comercio internacional, se ha
considerado que las politicas de competencia pueden hacerse
redundantes ya que la competencia extranjera tiende a garantizar
que dichos mercados tienen un nivel adecuado de contestabilidad.
Aca se discute la relacion general entre sector agricola y
politica de competencia, en un contexto de relativa
liberalizacion comercial.
Keywords: Sector agricola
JEL: F13
Date: 2005-04-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000116:000970&r=all
77. Quantil Hedging for telegraph markets and its applications
to a pricing of equity-linked life insurance contracts
Nikita Ratanov
El documento desarrolla un modelo de mercado financiero basado
en movimientos aleatorios con tiempo continuo, con velocidades
constantes, alternates, y saltos cuando hay cambio en la
velocidad. Si los saltos en la direccion tienen correspondencia
con la direccion de la velocidad del comportamiento aleatorio
subyacente, con respecto a la tasa interes, el modelo no
presenta arbitraje y es completo. Se contruye en detalle las
estrategias replicables para opciones y se obtiene una
representacion cerrada para el precio de las opciones.
Keywords: modelo telegrafico con saltos
JEL: G10
Date: 2005-04-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000116:000971&r=all
78. Nuevas evidencias de la crisis calena
Julio Cesar Alonso Cifuentes
Julieth Alejandra Solano
Este documento emplea la informacion del Producto Interno Bruto
de Cali recientemente publicada por el Departamento de Economia
de la Universidad Icesi para demostrar que una de las razones de
la fuerte caida del crecimiento del PIB municipal experimentada
en 1998 y 1999 se debe a la caida de la productividad promedio
por trabajador. De hecho, la productividad promedio por
trabajador cayo mucho mas en Cali que a nivel nacional y en
Bogota. Ademas, se encuentra que la economia calena presenta
una volatilidad mayor que la economia nacional y la de Bogota
Keywords: Economia calena
JEL: A
Date: 2004-01-20
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000117:000196&r=all
79. MODELOS PARA EL ANALISIS Y DIAGNOSTICOS DE EQUIPOS DE
TRABAJO
CARLOS ALBERTO FRANCO GUTIERREZ
En este articulo presentaremos varios modelos para el analisis
de la operacion de los equipos de trabajo que ayudan a conocer
el estado de efectividad con que esta trabajando el equipo, con
el fin de contribuir a conseguir las condiciones para una
operacion que eleve su productividad. El primer modelo que
presentaremos es el de Hackman. Posteriormente nos centraremos en
el denominado tradicional y finalmente en el modelo de las 3P y 3
C. El primer modelo determina las condiciones necesarias para
satisfacer ciertas condiciones de efectividad, el segundo se
centra en tres factores generales que determinan la productividad
y el rendimiento y el tercer modelo considera los factores claves
para la operacion de equipos exitosos.
Keywords: Equipos
Date: 2004-06-03
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000117:000781&r=all
80. Modelo de evaluacion de gestion de empresas industriales
del subsector de empaques y envases plasticos
Omar de Jesus Montilla Galvis.
El presente articulo muestra una propuesta de modelo de
evaluacion de gestion aplicable a las empresas industriales del
subsector de empaques y envases plasticos, producto de
investigacion teorica y de campo, como avance del proyecto de
investigacion titulado Modelos de evaluacion de gestion, que
se realiza dentro del Grupo de Investigacion en Contabilidad,
Finanzas y Gestion Publica. Este avance de investigacion
corresponde al estudio efectuado en empresas del subsector, en el
Valle del Cauca, subsector que fue seleccionado ya que representa
mas del 52% de la produccion nacional.
Keywords: Modelos de evaluacion,
Date: 2005-03-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000117:000958&r=all
81. Economia en el maquinado para la industria metalmecanica.
John Jairo Coronado Marin.
Este articulo presenta un estudio sobre la economia en el
proceso de maquinado para minimizar los costos por unidad y
maximizar la velocidad de produccion. Se analizaron tres
materiales tipicos en las herramientas de corte: acero de alta
velocidad, carburo cementado y ceramico. Se encontro que las
herramientas de material ceramico poseen menor costo por unidad
y menor duracion del ciclo que las herramientas de carburo
cementado y que las herramientas de acero rapido. Las
herramientas desechables presentaron menor tiempo por ciclo y
menor costo por pieza que las herramientas reafilables.
Keywords: Proceso de maquinado,
Date: 2005-03-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000117:000959&r=all
82. Revision de precios y reputacion de asesores financieros:
dos propuestas de indices para explicar el rendimiento a
corto plazo de las salida
David Quintana Montero
Pedro Isasi Vinuela.
En este trabajo se proponen dos nuevos constructos para explicar
el rendimiento de las acciones el dia en que son admitidas a
cotizacion. El primero de ellos captura la influencia del precio
final de oferta en relacion con el rango no vinculante propuesto
a los inversores durante la preventa. El segundo tiene por objeto
medir la importancia de la reputacion de los asesores
financieros encargados de gestionar la salida a bolsa. La
capacidad explicativa de estas alternativas se evaluara a
traves de modelos de regresion lineal centrados en la
estructura de la colocacion.
Keywords: Salida a bolsa,
JEL: G10
Date: 2005-03-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000117:000960&r=all
83. Los procesos de transformacion estrategica en relacion
con la evolucion de las organizaciones.
Jose G. Vargas-Hernandez.
Irene J. Guillen Mondragon.
El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la transformacion de
los procesos en la formulacion de estrategias con relacion a la
evolucion de la organizacion. Se determina que el pensamiento
estrategico y la formulacion de la estrategia han sido
privilegio unico de la alta direccion hasta los anos setenta,
cuando el contexto se caracterizo por ser mas o menos estable,
en el que las ventajas comparativas eran suficientes para
alcanzar el exito de la organizacion a partir de la funcion de
la gerencia tradicional. Sin embargo, al cambiar el medio
ambiente competitivo por el fenomeno de la “turbulencia”,
con mayor complejidad e incertidumbre, la alta direccion de las
organizaciones debe responder a crecientes demandas impuestas por
las nuevas condiciones economicas y sociales. Y mediante un
proceso continuo de innovacion de todas las actividades de la
empresa buscar ventajas competitivas sostenibles fundadas en
elementos intangibles especialmente, en el “conocimiento”, el
cual esta interiorizado en todos los miembros de la
organizacion. Por lo tanto, aunque la formulacion de la
estrategia sigue siendo facultad de la alta direccion, de alguna
manera es influida por los demas integrantes de la organizacion.
Keywords: Transformacion estrategica,
Date: 2005-03-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000117:000961&r=all
84. Las directrices del costo como fuentes de ventajas
competitivas.
Elver Alfonso Bermeo Munoz
Jose Reinel Bermeo Munoz
Este trabajo pretende describir con el mayor detalle y
actualizacion posible el comportamiento de los costos dentro de
una actividad de valor con base en los diez factores
estructurales que influyen en el costo, denominados por Michael E.
Porter (1985), como guias o directrices del costo en su libro
La Ventaja Competitiva. Estas directrices actuan como fuentes
directas para establecer y sostener el posicionamiento
estrategico asumido por la empresa, para determinar la posicion
relativa de costos y para explicar, en gran parte, la generacion
temporal de valor en las diversas actividades desarrolladas a lo
largo de la cadena de valor. Por esto constituyen uno de los
fundamentos para explicar las diferencias de resultados entre
empresas pertenecientes al mismo sector de actividad economica y
fuentes de ventajas competitivas sostenibles.
Keywords: Actividad de valor,
Date: 2005-03-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000117:000962&r=all
85. Camino a la excelencia
Martha Cecilia Jaramillo Mejia.
Carmenza Macia Mejia
Alejandro Arteaga Montero.
Se trata de como una Institucion Prestadora de Servicios de
Salud, creada para dar atencion a problemas medicos de alta
complejidad, luego de cinco anos de funcionamiento y con base en
el mejoramiento continuo, decide implementar un Sistema de
Gestion de Calidad bajo la Norma ISO 9000:2000, para garantizar
la permanencia de servicios de excelente calidad y lograr mayor
competitividad en el mercado al cumplir estandares
internacionales y asi poder posicionarse nacional e
internacionalmente como una alternativa en la prestacion de
servicios de salud con orientacion academica. Una vez
certificada bajo la norma la entidad se ve enfrentada a la
normatividad legal vigente y a nuevos retos.
Keywords: Acreditacion
Date: 2005-03-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000117:000963&r=all
86. The effect of dividend distribution on share return in Chile.
Mauricio Nash
Darcy Fuenzalida.
Numerous studies relating to the field of dividends have been
carried out over the past twenty-seven years. The objective of
this paper is to contrast it with the Barclay study (1987) and to
complement the Venkatesh paper (1989). This piece of research
concludes that, contrary to Barclay’s findings, on their
postclosure date, share returns in Chile do not fall in the
amount of their dividend, owing to the fact that in this country
the effect depends on the type of dividend. Finally, and as a
complement to the Venkatesh study, it was determined that the
average volatility of the twenty-five days prior to closure is
lower than that evinced in the twenty-five days after closure.
Keywords: Dividend;
JEL: G10
Date: 2004-12-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000117:000965&r=all
87. La estrategia, la estructura y las formas de asociacion:
Fuentes de ventaja competitiva para las pymes colombianas.
Francisco Velasquez Vasquez.
En este articulo se presenta la importancia de la estrategia,
de la estructura y de las formas de asociacion de las pequenas
y medianas empresas colombianas (Pymes) como fuentes de ventajas
competitivas en el entorno internacional. En una primera parte se
muestra que tanto las naciones desarrolladas, como las
emergentes, comparten una alta proporcion de Pymes en su
estructura economica, e igualmente se identifica la
caracterizacion de las mismas en el mundo. En una segunda parte
los estudios sobre el diagnostico de las Pymes colombianas
senalan la ausencia de practicas empresariales competitivas. En
una tercera parte se describen distintos modelos teoricos que
explican los ciclos de vida de las organizaciones. Adicionalmente
se muestran las perspectivas de las Pymes en la primera decada
del siglo XXI. El articulo finaliza con unas conclusiones y
recomendaciones sobre ventajas competitivas para que las Pymes
colombianas puedan multiplicar de manera significativa las
exportaciones no tradicionales en los proximos anos.
Keywords: Pymes,
Date: 2004-12-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000117:000966&r=all
88. Looking for a road to get out of poverty. Is the current
allocation of public spending on education in Colombia
helping?
Blanca Cecilia Zuluaga Diaz
Erick Schokkaert.
This paper presents a methodology to explore the impact on
poverty of the public spending on education. The methodology
consists of two approaches: Benefit Incidence Analysis (BIA) and
behavioral approach. BIA considers the cost and use of the
educational service, and the distribution of the benefits among
groups of income. Regarding the behavioral approach, we use a
Probit model of schooling attendance, in order to determine the
influence of public spending on the probability for the poor to
attend the school. As a complement, a measurement of targeting
errors in the allocation of public spending is included in the
methodology.
Keywords: Poverty,
JEL: H52
Date: 2004-12-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000117:000968&r=all
89. Las ganancias de senalizar en el mercado laboral en Cali
Natalia Gonzalez
Juan Carlos Gomez
Jhon James Mora
Blanca Zuniga
Este articulo discute el efecto de la educacion sobre los
salarios en la ciudad de Cali para el ano 2000. En particular se
discute tanto el modelo de capital humano como el modelo de
senalizacion derivado de la ecuacion de titulos de Hungerford
y Solon (1987). Los resultados muestran que existe una
rentabilidad adicional del titulo universitario del 37% sobre
los salarios y del 12% para el titulo de secundaria. Finalmente
se discute la necesidad de realizar una encuesta que permita
identificar mejor el efecto de los titulos sobre los salarios.
Keywords: Titulos,
JEL: I2
Date: 2004-09-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000117:000972&r=all
90. FARC Terrorism in Colombia: A Clustering Analysis
Andres F. Arias
Hernan Maldonado
This paper applies clustering analysis to the Colombian armed
conflict. Indeed, when applied to a FARC terrorist act database,
this statistical procedure finds a natural clustering of the
diferent FARC units according to the diferent types of terrorist
acts they commit and identities the military hard core of the
FARC. The facts revealed in this paper should be useful not only
for future military strategies, but also to determine a better
priorization and geographical allocation of the scarce military
resources.
Keywords: Clustering Analysis,
JEL: H56
Date: 2004-01-19
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000129:000416&r=all
91. Un Siglo de Crecimiento Economico
Carlos Esteban Posada
Miguel Urrutia Montoya
El proyecto Greco del Banco de la Republica ha hecho
estimaciones de crecimiento economico en Colombia durante el
siglo XX, el cual, segun estas cifras, ha sido estable, con una
volatilidad inferior a la de los otros paises grandes de
America Latina. Lo primero que se observa en el Cuadro 1 es que
durante tal siglo la tasa de crecimiento del PIB per capita ha
disminuido sistematicamente. De tasas de crecimiento de 3,40 en
el primer cuarto de siglo, se pasa a 1 ,82 en el ultimo cuarto
del mismo. La comparacion con America Latina es instructiva.
Los graficos 1 y 2 muestran que el crecimiento colombiano es el
mas constante. El crecimiento de largo plazo de Mexico y Peru
es similar, pero con tasas mayores antes de los anos setenta y
una alta volatilidad y estancamiento relativo en el ultimo
cuarto de siglo. Brasil, por su parte, tiene una aceleracion
notable en el PIB per capita en los anos sesenta, pero un
estancamiento relativo en el ultimo cuarto de siglo. El
estancamiento y decaimiento de Venezuela en los ultimos 25 anos
del siglo es notable, al igual que su crecimiento entre 1920 y
1955. Chile crece igual que Colombia en el largo plazo, pero mas
rapido en los ultimos 20 anos; y Argentina se estanca en los
ultimos 30 anos. Para el historiador latinoamericano es un reto
entender las causas de los episodios aqui mencionados. El Cuadro
2 resume el crecimiento de largo plazo en Colombia y America
Latina. En el siglo XX el ingreso per capita en dolares de 1990
aumento en Colombia cinco veces, cifra igual a la de Chile y muy
cercana a la de Mexico y Peru. Brasil y Venezuela crecieron
bastante mas (7,6 y 9,8 veces).
Date: 2004-07-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000129:000603&r=all
92. The Free Trade Agreement between Colombia and USA: What can
happen to Colombia?
Hernando Zuleta
Orlando Gracia
In order to assess the impact of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA)
between Colombia and the United States of America, we describe
the characteristics of the Colombian economy emphasizing its
trade patterns and perspectives and identifying the sectors and
regions that are likely to be the most sensitive to a FTA. We
argue that the effects of a bilateral trade agreement between the
USA and Colombia would be similar to those of past trade reforms.
We first analyze the effect of past reforms over a diverse sample
of countries such as Chile, Colombia and Mexico and then, using
an applied general equilibrium model, simulate the effects over
the Colombian economy of a bilateral agreement with USA. The
simulations show that, although small, there is an increase in
welfare and production of the Colombian consumers and firms.
Date: 2004-12-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000129:000852&r=all
93. What does fairness imply?
Andres Carvajal
Decades back, a most prominent justice philosopher, John Rawls,
put forth a clear definition of fairness in problems of social
choice. Decision theory, which studies individual, and not social,
choice has provided axiomatizations of decision rules in many
settings, most prominently in settings where individuals face
uncertainty (and not just risk). It turns out that there exists
an analytical connection between these two branches of thought.
This note exploits the aforementioned connection, by reading the
social choice problem in terms of decision theory and (partially)
exploiting the existing axiomatization. The purpose of the note
is to obtain new and interesting questions more than it is to
answer them, so it concludes by proposing a research problem.
Date: 2004-12-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000129:000853&r=all
94. Guia para la proyeccion de estados financieros y
valoracion financiera de un plan de negocios
Ignacio Velez Pareja
Resumen En la creacion o la valoracion de una empresa es muy
importante contar con estados financieros proyectados confiables
y consistentes para poder tomar las decisiones apropiadas para el
inicio y seguimiento de la firma. En esta guia mostramos paso a
paso y de una manera muy clara el procedimiento para hacer las
proyecciones de los estados financieros y a partir de alli
calcular los flujos de caja necesarios para la valoracion. Esta
valoracion se hace calculando el valor de la firma y su valor
presente neto (VPN). Se calculan puntos de equilibrio
tradicionales y lo que hemos denominado puntos de equilibrio
dinamicos. El modelo cuenta con algunas complejidades y se
presenta un analisis de sensibilidad sencillo basado en la
identificacion de variables criticas y escenarios. ABSTRACT
When creating a firm or when we intend to value an ongoing
concern it is very important to have reliable and consistent
financial statements in order to make the proper decisions not
only for the starting of a new firm but for the following up and
monitoring that firm or simply an ongoing concern. In this guide
we show a very clear and simple step by step procedure to
construct proforma financial statements. From these financial
statements we will derive the cash flows necessary to calculate
the market value and net present value (NPV) for the firm. We
calculate the traditional break even points and what we call the
dynamic break even points. We present some complexities and show
a simple sensitivity analysis that includes the determination of
critical variables and scenario analysis.
Keywords: Proyeccion de estados financieros
JEL: D61
Date: 2004-06-23
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000135:000489&r=all
95. Top 9 (Unnecessary and Avoidable) Mistakes in Cash Flow
Valuation
Joseph Tham
Ignacio Velez Pareja
In cash flow valuation (CFV), there are two main categories of
mistakes: derivation of the appropriate cash flows and estimation
of the cost of capital. A simple-minded view of the world would
suggest that with near perfect capital markets, the presence of
arbitrage would severely punish “wrong” valuations and
eradicate such mistakes in the derivations of cash flows and
estimations of the cost of capital. Nonetheless, to the dismay of
academics, such mistakes continue to exist and thrive. It is not
clear why such “mistakes” persist in practice. in this paper
we present our list of the “top eight” mistakes in cash flow
valuation. In the age of the computer these mistakes are both
unnecessary and avoidable. In the usual triumph of hope over
experience, we are attempting to persuade analysts that they
would benefit from paying attention to these mistakes. Ultimately,
the (un)importance of the mistakes is an empirical question.
Keywords: Cost of capital
JEL: D61 G31
Date: 2004-02-19
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000135:000492&r=all
96. Calculo correcto y sencillo del valor a precios de mercado.
Una comparacion con otros metodos.
Ignacio Velez-Pareja
En la practica financiera y la ensenanza de las finanzas el
tratamiento que se le da a algunos de los conceptos mas
importantes en la evaluacion de proyectos y la valoracion de
empresas en muchos casos es por decir lo menos, ligero. Por un
lado esta la determinacion de los flujos de caja para valorar
una firma o proyecto y por el otro el costo de capital como tasa
de descuento para valorar esos flujos. El problema de los flujos
de caja radica en que para muchos estudiosos o practicantes este
ejercicio se convierte en un proceso dispendioso y que algunas
veces propenso a que se pasen por alto algunas partidas. El
problema del costo de capital o tasa de descuento para descontar
flujos de caja muchas veces se resuelve escogiendo una tasa (a
veces el costo de la deuda o lo que el dueno le gustaria
ganarse y a eso se le anaden unos puntos porcentuales). Otras
veces se calcula un promedio ponderado del costo de la deuda y
del costo de capital del dueno usando los valores en libros
iniciales y se utiliza como tasa unica. Ante esta situacion se
pretende abordar el tema de la manera mas sencilla, pero a la
vez correcta y proponer asi un calculo del flujo de caja para
valoracion y el calculo de la tasa de descuento apropiada para
descontar flujos de caja. Aunque determinar el costo de capital
es uno de los problemas mas dificiles y controvertidos de la
teoria financiera y aunque es realmente meterse en camisa de
once varas, se hara el intento. En este trabajo presentaremos un
enfoque muy sencillo y correcto en terminos de valores de
mercado para determinar los flujos de caja, en particular el
flujo de caja de capital, FCC (Capital Cash Flow, CCF en ingles)
utilizado por Ruback, 2000 y para definir el costo de capital
para descontar el FCC. Como ambientacion al tema presentamos los
errores mas comunes que se encuentran en la valoracion de
flujos de caja. El cuerpo del trabajo pretende mostrar como esos
errores se pueden evitar.
Keywords: Financial statements, forecasting, net present value (
NPV), firm valuation, equity valuation, cost of capital,
break even analysis, sensitivity analysis, scenario
analysis, cash flow valuation
JEL: G31 H43 M40 D92 E22
Date: 2004-07-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000135:000550&r=all
97. For finite cash flows, what is the correct formula for the
return to levered equity?
Joseph Tham
Ignacio Velez-Pareja
For cash flows in perpetuity without growth, analysts typically
use the following formula for the return to levered equity Ke. Ke
= Ku + (Ku – Kd)?(1 – T)D/E (1) where Ku is the return to
unlevered equity, Kd is the cost of debt, T is the tax rate, D is
the market value of debt and E is the market value of equity.
What is the corresponding formula for finite cash flows? Is it
the same as equation 1? In other words, is equation 1 appropriate
for both finite and infinite cash flows? One may be tempted to
believe that equation 1 is the general formulation for the return
to levered equity and applies to both cash flows in perpetuity
and finite cash flows. However, this conclusion is misleading. In
this short note, using simple algebra, we derive the general
formulation for the return to levered equity for finite cash
flows, and show that equation 1 is not the general formulation
for finite cash flows.
Keywords: Present value of the tax shield, cost of levered equity
JEL: D61 G31 H41
Date: 2004-05-10
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000135:000551&r=all
98. Modeling the Financial Impact of Regulatory Policy:
Practical Recommendations and Suggestions. The Case of World
Bank
Ignacio Velez-Pareja
World Bank (WB) has played a crucial role in the development of
the economies of the world, especially in the emerging countries.
We recognize the leadership it has shown and the intellectual
authority the WB has on planning offices, practitioners and
consultants. For this reason it is very sensitive whatever
improvements made in the methodologies it uses in assessing the
feasibility of infrastructure projects. This influence affects
private practice in valuation and project appraisal as well.
Velez -Pareja in 1999 warned: “constant price methodology
implies some assumptions and a mixture of items, some deflated,
and some others not deflated”. Velez -Pareja and Tham 2002
warned again: “financial statements at constant prices will be
useless when the project is implemented because what occurs in
reality (that is what we are interested in) is very different
from what is written in the final report of a project evaluation.
Some of the items are deflated while others (say depreciation
charges and interest payments) are in nominal prices. Hence, for
managerial purposes, it is of no use to have this mixed
information in the financial statements.” In general, both
papers warn about the overvaluation of a project when appraised
at constant prices. Some reactions to these assertions were that
it was the construction of a straw man to destroy it. We have a
beautiful case where the constant prices methodology is fully at
work: the Financial Modeling of Regulatory Policy by the World
Bank. On the other hand Tham and Velez-Pareja 2004 mentioned the
most frequent (and avoidable) mistakes when valuing cash flows.
In this paper we show how in that case they present several
conceptual mistakes such as valuation at constant prices, mixing
deflated and non-deflated items in financial statements, using
constant leverage when in the forecasted financial statements it
is not constant, inconsistency in the cash flow and value
calculations and some other irregularities that will be described
in the body of the paper. This analysis shows an overvaluation of
more than 21% when the constant prices methodology is compared
with the current prices methodology and using market values to
calculate the WACC. The last two appendixes show the
correspondence between the author and officials and consultants
from the World Bank.
Keywords: World Bank, regulatory policy for infrastructure,
developing countries, project evaluation, project
appraisal, firm valuation, cost of capital, cash flows,
free cash flow, capital cash flow
JEL: M40 M41 G12 G31 J33
Date: 2004-08-22
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000135:000556&r=all
99. The Correct Definition for the Cash Flows to Value a Firm (
Free Cash Flow and Cash Flow to Equity)
Ignacio Velez-Pareja
cash flow and time value of money. In this note we specify very
clearly what has to be included in those cash flows and the
reasons why they should be included. The main issue is related to
the inclusion or exclusion of some items in the working capital
and the current practice to consider that funds that appear in
the Balance Sheet (cash and market securities and the like)
belong to the free cash flow FCF and the cash flow to equity CFE.
In the same line of reasoning, the idea is that cash flows have
to be consistent with financial statements. With a hypothetical
example we show the implicit financial facts reflected in the
financial statements behind the practice of including as cash
flow items that appear in the Balance Sheet.
Keywords: Cash flows, free cash flow, cash flow to equity,
valuation,
JEL: M21 M40 M41 G12 G31 J33
Date: 2004-08-21
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000135:000714&r=all
100. Tasas de interes efectivas y nominales: el calvario de los
estudiantes de finanzas
Ignacio Velez-Pareja
A nuestros estudiantes de Finanzas les ensenan que lo mas
importante en ese area es saber calcular y utilizar la tasa de
interes efectiva o capitalizada. Para algunos de nuestros
profesores, eso es todo; si un estudiante llega sin saber esa
ficcion, no sabe Finanzas. Mas aun, una gran mayoria de las
personas del sector financiero, por no decir todas, trabajan,
toman decisiones y hacen que otros (sus clientes) tomen
decisiones, es decir, escojan alternativas de inversion, con
base en la tasa de interes efectiva anual. Por ejemplo, ante una
situacion en que varias alternativas de liquidacion de un bono,
le recomendarian a sus clientes que mientras la tasa de interes
efectiva anual sea la misma, da lo mismo cualquier modalidad de
pago. Esto es equivocado y se puede demostrar con un ejemplo real
y sencillo. En esta nota se demuestra por medio de ejemplos
sencillos lo equivocado de dar preponderancia a la tasa efectiva
sobre la tasa nominal. En uno de los ejemplos se muestra como se
llega a una decision equivocada sobre la base de la tasa
efectiva de interes y se desprecia el ahorro en impuestos que
contribuye a la generacion de valor de una firma.
Keywords: Costo promedio ponderado de capital, WACC, tasas de
interes, tasa nominal
JEL: E43 G12 G21 G31
Date: 2004-02-14
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000135:000715&r=all
101. Adjustment of the WACC with Subsidized Debt in the Presence
of Corporate Taxes: the N-Period Case
Ignacio Velez–Pareja
Joseph Tham
Viviana Fernandez
In the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) applied to the
free cash flow (FCF), we assume that the cost of debt is the
market, unsubsidized rate. With debt at the market rate and
perfect capital markets, debt only creates value in the presence
of taxes through the tax shield. In some cases, the firm may be
able to obtain a loan at a rate that is below the market rate.
With subsidized debt and taxes, there would be a benefit to debt
financing, and the unleveraged and leveraged values of the cash
flows would be unequal. The benefit of lower tax savings are
offset by the benefit of the subsidy. These two benefits have to
be introduced explicitly. In this paper we present the
adjustments to the WACC with subsidized debt and taxes and the
cost of leveraged equity for multiple periods. We demonstrate the
analysis for both the WACC applied to the FCF and the WACC
applied to the capital cash flow (CCF). We use the calculation of
the Adjusted Present Value, APV, to consider both, the tax
savings and the subsidy. We show how all the methods match.
Keywords: Adjusted Present Value, APV, weighted average cost of
capital, discounted cash flow, DCF equity value, cost
of equity, WACC, subsidized debt with taxes, valuation
of cash flows, project evaluation, project appraisal,
firm valuation, cost of capital, cash flows, free cash
flow, capital cash flow.
JEL: D61 G30 G31 G32 H43
Date: 2005-03-08
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000135:000964&r=all
102. FECUNDIDAD ADOLESCENTE EN COLOMBIA: INCIDENCIA, TENDENCIAS
Y DETERMINANTES. UN ENFOQUE DE HISTORIA DE VIDA
Carmen Elisa Florez
Elvia Vargas
Juanita Henao
Conztanza Gonzalez
La fecundidad adolescente ha venido aumentando desde la decada
de los noventa, lo cual esta relacionado con un inicio mas
temprano y mas rapido de la actividad sexual, mientras que se
ha retardado el inicio de las uniones estables. La tendencia en
el inicio de la actividad sexual ha llevado a que se observe un
aumento en la maternidad entre adolescentes solteras, con grandes
diferenciales entre regiones. Los patrones de actividad sexual,
union, maternidad, en Bogota y Cali son diferenciales por
estrato. Las adolescentes del estrato bajo inician relaciones
sexuales, se unen y son madres mucho mas temprano y mas rapido
que las del estrato alto, lo cual esta asociado tanto al pronto
inicio de relaciones sexuales como al de las uniones. Aunque la
planificacion familiar juega un papel importante, su uso empieza
despues de que han iniciado relaciones sexuales. Esto se basa en
la percepcion de invulnerabilidad que tienen las adolescentes,
en la creencia infundada de efectos secundarios, y en la creencia
que no se necesitan metodos de control en la primera relacion.
De los determinantes socioeconomicos de los eventos sexuales (
inicio de relaciones sexuales, primer embarazo, primer hijo), el
conjunto de factores contextuales del hogar son los mas
importantes, sobresaliendo el papel de la familia -ambiente y
supervision- en el comportamiento reproductivo de las
adolescentes. El estudio evidencia el efecto limitado que sobre
el comportamiento de las adolescentes ha tenido la educacion
sexual que se imparte en los colegios desde 1993.
Keywords: Adolescencia
JEL: J13
Date: 2004-08-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000573&r=all
103. THE WELFARE EFFECTS OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION: EVIDENCE FROM
THE CAR INDUSTRY IN COLOMBIA
Jorge Tovar
In this paper I examine the effects of trade liberalization on
firms’ performance and consumers’ welfare. Using product
level data, I study firms’ performance in the Colombian
automobile industry. Given my disaggregated data I can estimate
pre and post-reform price-cost margins, as well as calculate the
results by origin of production. Before the reforms were
implemented, imported cars had prohibitively high tariffs, on
average 200%, and were essentially unavailable. After the reforms
such tariffs were reduced to 38% on average. I find that as the
industry restructured prior to the liberalization process, price-
cost margins dropped from 33% to 24%. After the reforms, margins
increased because of the associated lower costs, but then again
started to fall, reaching a low 23% for domestic cars. The
behavior of price-cost margins is explained by increasing
domestic competition prior to the reforms, the associated
decrease in costs after the reforms and the relatively unchanged
market structure. On the consumer side, the approach I follow
allows me to estimate the monetary gains due to the
liberalization process. I find the post-reform gains in
consumers’ welfare to be, as a consequence of declining prices
and increased variety, over three thousand dollars per purchaser.
A counterfactual simulation, where it is assumed that no foreign
cars were available after the reforms, suggests that the gains
achieved by consumers are due, for the most part, to increased
variety rather than to price competition.
Keywords: Trade Liberalization
JEL: D43
Date: 2004-08-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000579&r=all
104. COLOMBIA: UNA POLITICA DE TIERRAS EN TRANSICION
Banco Mundial
La distribucion inequitativa de la tierra y las implicaciones
negativas tanto sociales como economicas resultado de la
polarizacion en Colombia ha sido una preocupacion constante
para los formuladores de politica debido a que la distribucion
inequitativa de la tierra es uno de los principales impedimentos
clave al desarrollo economico y social del pais. Se han
adoptado una serie de medidas de politica para enfrentar el
problema y sus consecuencias. Numerosos estudios han mostrado que
el exito de estos programas fue limitado a causa de un marco
politico inadecuado, recursos financieros limitados,
procedimientos engorrosos, cargados de obstaculos burocraticos,
influencia de dinero del narcotrafico y violencia. Este estudio
utiliza nueva evidencia empirica para describir la dimension y
el impacto del problema de acceso a la tierra, la distribucion
inequitativa de la misma, las politicas del pasado que trataron
estos asuntos y los consecuentes problemas, con el fin de
identificar posibles soluciones para encauzar asuntos de tierra
de manera integral en futuras intervenciones. Entre los temas
analizados son el papel de la politica de tierra en enfrentar el
desplazamiento forzado y el uso del mercado para facilitar el
acceso a tierra a pequenos productores de manera que fomenta la
productividad y competitividad agropecuaria.
Keywords: Redistribucion de la tierra
JEL: D74
Date: 2004-08-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000580&r=all
105. THE ECONOMICS OF TRANSMILENIO, A MASS TRANSIT SYSTEM FOR
BOGOTA
Juan Carlos Echeverry
Ana Maria Ibanez
Luis Carlos Hillon
By the end of the 1990s, inefficiency, excess supply and low
service quality characterized the mass transit system of Bogota.
The average travel time to work was one hour and ten minutes,
obsolete buses provided public transport, traffic generated 70
percent of air pollution and there were frequent traffic
accidents. To address all of these issues, the municipal and
national governments designed and put in place a new mass transit
system named TransMilenio (TM), which came into operation in
January 2001. The purpose of this paper is to analyze Bogota’s
mass transit system before and after TM, study the political
economy of its adoption process and conduct a cost-benefit
analysis (CBA) of the first phase of the system. The new transit
system is a hybrid model that combines public planning of the
network structure, route tendering conditions, regulation and
supervision, as well as private operation of the separated
functions of revenue collection and transport service. The
adoption of this new model needed to resolve delicate political
economy issues that characterized private transport systems in
many developing countries. The new organization had a sizeable
impact on TM users’ by improving traveling conditions
significantly. In addition, congestion, pollution and traffic
accidents plummeted in TM corridors. However, the type of
transition adopted for the remaining transport corridors not
covered by TM caused unforeseen negative spillovers, as a
consequence of slow scrapping rates and bus and routes relocation.
Consequently, although the CBA for the first phase of the
corridors covered by TM is positive, once these additional
measures are taken into consideration, the net effect is negative
due primarily to increases in travel time for passengers using
the traditional transport system. In order to minimize the
negative spillovers during the full implementation of TM,
expected to last until 2015, integration of the traditional and
new systems should be carried on, and strict regulation of the
traditional public transport system should be crafted.
Keywords: urban transport
JEL: R41
Date: 2004-08-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000581&r=all
106. DOES VIOLENCE REDUCE INVESTMENT IN EDUCATION?: A
THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL APPROACH
Felipe Barrera
Ana Maria Ibanez
The paper develops a dynamic theoretical model and presents
empirical evidence about the relationship between violence and
education investments. Although some papers have estimated
regressions to link educational outcomes and violence, no formal
models have been developed yet. A theoretical model is crucial to
understand the different channels through which violence affects
education. Three channels are identified. First, violence can
affect directly the utility of households and, therefore, it may
modify the consumption of education. Second, extreme violence can
destroy physical capital and create uncertainty, which will lower
investment and production. In the long run, destruction of
physical assets and drop in investment impact the income of
households who in turn must reduce consumption and cutback
investments in education. Third, violence can modify the rates of
return of education, and therefore, can change the investment on
education. We find violence indeed exerts a toll on education.
School enrollment is less in Colombian municipalities with
homicide rates above the national median. Moreover, the
likelihood of school enrollment decreases as homicide rates rise
for all group ages. The impact of homicide rates is larger than
transferences from the national government to the local
government earmarked for investment in education and health.
Keywords: Theory of Education
JEL: I21
Date: 2004-07-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000582&r=all
107. INEFICIENCIAS ECONOMICAS EN LA PROVISION PRIVADA DE
VEHICULOS PARA EL TRANSPORTE URBANO PUBLICO EN COLOMBIA
Luis Carlos Hillon
La provision privada de vehiculos para el transporte urbano
publico en Colombia presenta ineficiencias economicas y/o
externalidades por el tipo de regimen de propiedad en el que se
encuentra. Este articulo usa modelos microeconomicos de diseno
de contratos para analizar esta problematica, con los cuales se
determina que existen incentivos a la sobrecapitalizacion del
sector. Tambien se advierte que la demanda observada por cada
vehiculo tiene un comportamiento con respecto al capital,
similar al registrado en la explotacion de algunos recursos
naturales.
Keywords: Ineficiencias economicas
JEL: H42
Date: 2004-07-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000583&r=all
108. UNA APROXIMACION A LOS EFECTOS DEL ALCA SOBRE LAS
IMPORTACIONES DE COLOMBIA
Ricardo Rocha
Ricardo Perilla
Una estimacion de los efectos que se derivarian del ALCA con
una eventual eliminacion del AEC sobre los precios y cantidades
de las importaciones de Venezuela y los Estados Unidos. Empleando
la econometria de panel para el periodo 1994-2002 se estimaron
modelos competencia a la Bertrand y Cournot para las
importaciones de ambos paises, en funcion de los respectivos
aranceles, tasas de cambio, costos de produccion y la demanda de
Colombia. Los resultados permiten estimar un efecto neto positivo
sobre el valor de las importaciones provenientes de ambos paises
por US 159 millones anuales, es decir, un 3,3%, debido al efecto
conjunto de repunte en el valor de las importaciones de los EEUU
y al menor valor de las compras a Venezuela. La mayor parte de
los efectos corresponden a ajustes en cantidades y se concentran
en las importaciones destinadas a la industria como materias
primas y bienes de capital, como resultado de las elasticidades
estimadas y de la estructura de comercio.
Keywords: ALCA
JEL: F13
Date: 2004-06-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000584&r=all
109. IMPUNIDAD PENAL: MITOS Y REALIDADES
Elvira Maria Restrepo
Mariana Martinez
El tema de la impunidad se ha manejado tradicionalmente en
Colombia a traves de cifras que provienen de encuestas de
percepcion que sugieren niveles de impunidad del orden del 90% a
99%. Estas cifras son mitos pues como se mostrara en este
documento, hoy por hoy es casi imposible saber cual es la
verdadera magnitud de este fenomeno, de ahi que sean mitos.
Ademas son cifras peligrosas, por que en ultimas generan mas
impunidad dado que alejan a las personas de acudir a la justicia
y colaborar con ella. Finalmente, confunden diferentes tipos de
impunidades, algunas de ellas que no dependen del sistema penal.
Si se analizan los estudios sobre impunidad realizados por
expertos en las ultimas dos decadas se observa que dependiendo
de la metodologia utilizada esta oscila entre 32% y 99%. Dada la
gran varianza de impunidades este documento busca precisar de que
impunidades se esta hablando y partir de las estadisticas
oficiales crear indicadores sobre la impunidad que es
responsabilidad de la justicia penal. Para ello proponemos una
metodologia clara para la Fiscalia y los juzgados que busca
unificar criterios de lo que debe entenderse por impunidad penal
y asi mejorar el entendimiento de este fenomeno de manera que
se puedan tomar medidas y crear politicas que ataquen las
verdaderas causas de este fenomeno.
Keywords: Justicia penal
JEL: H11
Date: 2004-06-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000585&r=all
110. ACCESO A TIERRAS Y DESPLAZAMIENTO FORZADO EN COLOMBIA
Ana Maria Ibanez
Pablo Querubin
El desplazamiento forzado en Colombia, consecuencia del
conflicto armado, ha conllevado a una crisis humanitaria sin
precedentes para el Estado Colombiano. El objetivo de este
trabajo es, por un lado, identificar las causas municipales del
desplazamiento en Colombia y, por otro lado, estimar los
determinantes del deseo de retorno de la poblacion desplazada.
Las estimaciones municipales indican que: (i) hay un vinculo
estrecho entre el desplazamiento forzado y la concentracion de
la tierra; (ii) la accion de los grupos armados promueve el
desplazamiento; y (iii) una fuerte presencia institucional asi
como una amplia oferta de servicios estatales mitigan el
desplazamiento. La investigacion encuentra que la tenencia de la
tierra y las oportunidades economicas en el lugar de origen son
incentivos importantes para retornar. De otro lado, el estudio
identifica que los hogares uniparentales, con jefatura femenina o
pertenecientes a minorias etnicas manifiestan un menor deseo de
retorno. Por ultimo, se encontro que la cohesion social y la
accion colectiva parece producir una percepcion de seguridad y
proteccion contra la accion de los grupos armados y, por lo
tanto, la participacion en organizaciones y la propiedad
colectiva de tierras inducen una mayor disposicion a retornar.
La inclusion de datos municipales en las regresiones sugiere que
al controlar por la violencia, desaparece el efecto positivo de
las variables economicas en el origen sobre el deseo de retorno,
con excepcion de la tenencia de tierras. De igual forma, una
mayor inversion social en el municipio de origen esta asociada
a un mayor deseo de retorno al tiempo que elevadas tasas de
homicidios en el municipio receptor, aumentan el deseo de retorno
de los hogares desplazados.
Keywords: Desplazamiento forzoso
JEL: D74
Date: 2004-05-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000586&r=all
111. UN ANALISIS EMPIRICO DEL FONDO DE ESTABILIZACION DE
PRECIOS EN EL MERCADO DE ACEITE DE PALMA COLOMBIANO
Juan Walter Tudela
Ramon Rosales
Henry Samaca
El Fondo de Estabilizacion de Precios para el Palmiste, el
Aceite de Palma y sus Fracciones, FEP, se creo mediante Ley 101
de 1993 y en enero de 1998, el FEP inicio la aplicacion de los
mecanismos de estabilizacion de precios. Usando un Sistema de
Ecuaciones de Simultaneas (SSE) y un Modelo de Vectores
Autoregresivos (VAR), este articulo evalua los impactos del FEP
en el mercado de aceite de palma Colombiano y examina las
implicaciones en el bienestar de una eventual eliminacion de
esta politica. Se encontro que la demanda y la oferta de aceite
de palma son inelasticas, mostrando mayor sensibilidad la oferta
a las variaciones en los precios, siendo de esta manera la mas
afectada por la eliminacion del FEP. Los resultados de los
modelos econometricos indican que el FEP genero un aumento de
las exportaciones de aceite de palma entre 26,55% y 39,05%
durante 1998:1-2003:4. Una eventual eliminacion del FEP
generaria una ganancia neta de bienestar de US$67.324
trimestrales para los consumidores que implica un aumento en el
consumo de 2,84% y una perdida neta de bienestar de US$175.665
trimestrales para los productores que implica una caida del 5,
89% en la produccion, el aumento en el consumo junto a la
disminucion en la produccion reducirian las exportaciones en
28,42%.
Keywords: Aceite de Palma
JEL: D6
Date: 2004-09-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000682&r=all
112. ECONOMIA DE LA PRODUCCION DE BIENES AGRICOLAS
Ramon Rosales
Edson Apaza
Jorge Alexander Bonilla Londono
El documento tiene como objetivo principal mostrar el marco
teorico y operativo de la economia de la produccion de los
bienes agricolas. En el marco teorico se desarrollan los
principios microeconomicos relacionados con la produccion y los
costos de los bienes agricolas, asi como las leyes que soportan
la teoria de la dualidad. La parte empirica o aplicada del
documento se centra en la estimacion de modelos econometricos
de las funciones de produccion mas utilizadas en la agricultura.
A partir de los modelos estimados se derivan y se representan
graficamente los conceptos mas importantes que se tienen en
cuenta en el analisis economico de la produccion agricola.
Las bases de datos se han construido a partir de experimentos
agricolas llevados a cabo en los centros de investigacion
agropecuaria de Colombia y Mexico. Finalmente, el presente
documento pretende contribuir al inicio de una serie de
publicaciones en las que se muestre los resultados de distintos
estudios llevados a cabo en el area de economia agricola del
Programa de Maestria en Economia del Medio Ambiente y Recursos
Naturales – PEMAR de la Facultad de Economia de la Universidad
de los Andes.
Keywords: economia agricola
JEL: E23
Date: 2004-09-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000683&r=all
113. INSTITUTIONS AS THE FUNDAMENTAL CAUSE OF LONG-RUN GROWTH
Daron Acemoglu
Simon Johnson
James Robinson
This paper develops the empirical and theoretical case that
differences in economic institutions are the fundamental cause of
differences in economic development. We first document the
empirical importance of institutions by focusing on two “quasi-
natural experiments” in history, the division of Korea into two
parts with very different economic institutions and the
colonization of much of the world by European powers starting in
the fifteenth century. We then develop the basic outline of a
framework for thinking about why economic institutions differ
across countries. Economic institutions determine the incentives
of and the constraints on economic actors, and shape economic
outcomes. As such, they are social decisions, chosen for their
consequences. Because different groups and individuals typically
benefit from different economic institutions, there is generally
a conflict over these social choices, ultimately resolved in
favor of groups with greater political power. The distribution of
political power in society is in turn determined by political
institutions and the distribution of resources. Political
institutions allocate de jure political power, while groups with
greater economic might typically possess greater de facto
political power. We therefore view the appropriate theoretical
framework as a dynamic one with political institutions and the
distribution of resources as the state variables. These variables
themselves change over time because prevailing economic
institutions affect the distribution of resources, and because
groups with de facto political power today strive to change
political institutions in order to increase their de jure
political power in the future. Economic institutions encouraging
economic growth emerge when political institutions allocate power
to groups with interests in broad-based property rights
enforcement, when they create effective constraints on power-
holders, and when there are relatively few rents to be captured
by power holders. We illustrate the assumptions, the workings and
the implications of this framework using a number of historical
examples.
Keywords: development
JEL: N11
Date: 2004-09-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000684&r=all
114. LA ORGANIZACION DE LA SEGURIDAD SOCIAL EN SOCIEDADES
AVANZADAS
Meinhard Miegel
En los ultimos tiempos se puede observar, sobre todo en las
sociedades mas desarrolladas, que se ha llevado a cabo un cambio
sustancial en la organizacion del sistema pensional, de un
sistema de transferencias publicas a uno basado en patrimonios
privados. La razon fundamental para este cambio es la profunda
transformacion demografica de los paises industrializados.
Dado que el numero de personas de edad ha crecido aceleradamente,
tambien han aumentado sustancialmente los gastos en las
transferencias publicas. Hace 30 anos, Alemania dedicaba una
quinta parte del Producto Interno Bruto para cubrirlas; hoy en
dia dedica, una tercera parte, y, si no se producen reformas
sustanciales del sistema de seguridad social, dentro de 30 anos
se llegaria a la mitad del PIB. Por esta razon es posible
pensar que la futura generacion economicamente activa se pueda
negar a aceptar esa deuda. Por esta causa los sistemas de
seguridad social deben ser transformados ahora. Sin embargo aun
existe resistencia politica ante esto, pues no todos quieren
aceptar los cambios ocasionados por tales transformaciones. Este
trabajo expone como una sociedad cuyos miembros participan en la
produccion de riqueza de manera sustancial a traves de
patrimonios privados, tiene una estructura y una comprension de
si misma muy distinta de aquella que depende de las
transferencias publicas.
Keywords: Seguridad social
JEL: D33
Date: 2004-09-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000685&r=all
115. SOBRE LA RELACION POSITIVA ENTRE EL CAPITAL SOCIAL Y LA
VIOLENCIA URBANA: UN ANALISIS TEORICO Y EMPIRICO
Maria Carolina Latorre Lopez
En Colombia se han caracterizado diversos tipos de violencia a
lo largo del tiempo y se ha discutido ampliamente las formas en
las que la comunidad puede hacer frente a estos conflictos en
conjunto con las acciones del Gobierno, la presencia de las
Fuerzas Armadas y los factores economicos. En esta linea, el
Capital Social adquiere importancia en su papel de producto
necesario para estimular la cooperacion mutua, establecer
mejores redes de comunicacion y promover una mayor cohesion
entre los miembros de la localidad; de esta manera, la inversion
de los agentes en dicho Capital ayudaria a enfrentar fallas de
mercado propiciados en su comunidad por factores como la
violencia. No obstante, se ha planteado la idea de Capital Social
“Perverso” dada la relacion positiva entre Capital Social y
Violencia encontrada para algunas comunidades, arguyendo que los
lazos generados entre los individuos ayudan a propiciar la
delincuencia. Este trabajo tiene como principales objetivos
plantear la relacion entre Violencia y Capital Social a traves
del comportamiento de dos individuos que enfrentan decisiones
diferentes y corroborar las hipotesis empiricamente. En un caso
tomamos el agente generador de violencia que observa externamente
las condiciones de Capital Social de la comunidad y decide si
atacar o no de acuerdo con el beneficio o perjuicio que esas
caracteristicas le ocasionen, y en el otro caso se representa al
agente perteneciente a la comunidad que decide si invertir o no
en Capital Social de acuerdo con el nivel de violencia de su
localidad. De acuerdo con los resultados, podemos constatar que
la relacion positiva entre Capital Social y Violencia no es
necesariamente generada por la idea de Capital Social Perverso,
sino por otros elementos relacionados con el nivel de
acumulacion de Capital Social y las variables que inciden en la
decision del agente violento.
Keywords: violencia urbana
JEL: C33
Date: 2004-09-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000733&r=all
116. REGULACIONES Y NORMAS EN LO PUBLICO Y LO COLECTIVO:
EXPLORACIONES DESDE EL LABORATORIO ECONOMICO
Juan Camilo Cardenas
La internalizacion de las externalidades de grupo derivadas del
dilema entre el interes individual y el interes social
requieren el diseno de instituciones a traves del mercado, el
estado o de formas auto-gobernadas que generen en los agentes un
cambio en los incentivos pecuniarios o no materiales que los
lleven a tomar decisiones que sean socialmente deseables. El
enfoque economico convencional en el analisis de la ejecucion
o aplicacion de las leyes (enforcement) se basa principalmente
en los trabajos de Becker en donde se propone que quienes optan
por incumplir las leyes estan percibiendo un beneficio mas alto
que el costo esperado de la regulacion por parte del estado, es
decir la sancion para el infractor multiplicada por la
probabilidad de deteccion. A traves de una serie de
experimentos economicos se explora esta hipotesis para el caso
de un problema tipico de bienes publicos o de extraccion de
recursos en donde se presenta una externalidad de grupo y una
regulacion que es parcialmente monitoreada y sancionada. Los
resultados sugieren que la respuesta estrategica de los
individuos a los diferentes costos esperados de la regulacion
confirma solo parcialmente la hipotesis en la medida en que las
diferencias son menos que proporcionales a los valores estimados
del costo esperado de la regulacion para los agentes. Mas aun,
cuando se comparan estos resultados con replicas exactas de
estos experimentos aplicadas en campo a comunidades rurales en
donde se vive cotidianamente este problema, las diferencias en
las decisiones individuales entre los costos esperados
practicamente desaparecen. Se propone al final que en
conjuncion con los costos materiales del incumplimiento, los
individuos incorporan elementos adicionales en su proceso
cognitivo que son consistentes con hallazgos de la economia
experimental, y la economia del comportamiento.
Keywords: economia experimental
JEL: C92
Date: 2004-09-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000734&r=all
117. EVALUACION ECONOMICA DEL COMPONENTE EDUCATIVO DEL
PROGRAMA FAMILIAS EN ACCION DEL PLAN COLOMBIA
Rocio Andrea Barrero R.
Clara Johanna Velez R.
Ivan Castro
Ramon Rosales
El presente articulo desarrolla una metodologia para evaluar
proyectos de educacion formal mediante la cuantificacion del
ingreso promedio de un individuo, de acuerdo a los niveles de
escolaridad alcanzados, la experiencia y el genero. Esto con el
fin de obtener una estimacion confiable del retorno promedio de
la educacion y determinar los beneficios economicos esperados
por inversiones de este tipo. Los efectos de los subsidios por
educacion del Programa Familias en Accion en la poblacion
beneficiaria, son evaluados y analizados en el presente estudio a
traves del enfoque de la teoria del capital humano. Esta
teoria parte del supuesto de que existe una relacion directa
entre los niveles de educacion de los individuos y sus niveles
de productividad, en este sentido, individuos con niveles altos
de preparacion y por ende con mayor productividad devengaran
ingresos mas altos. De acuerdo a lo anterior, a traves de una
funcion de ingresos minceriana y con base en la informacion de
la Encuesta Nacional de Hogares para el ano 2002, se estimo una
tasa de retorno promedio de la educacion del 12.71% para dicho
ano.
Keywords: Funcion de ingresos minceriana
JEL: H31
Date: 2004-10-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000736&r=all
118. ANALISIS ECONOMICO DE LOS SERVICIOS PUBLICOS EN LA
PRODUCTIVIDAD DE LOS HOGARES COLOMBIANOS
Luz Adriana Giraldo Balcazar
Ramon Rosales
Este articulo desarrolla un modelo de productividad de los
hogares basado en la Nueva Economia de la Familia (NEF), tomando
que estas no solo son agentes consumidores sino tambien agentes
productores de bienes y servicios domesticos. Se parte del
supuesto de que el acceso a los servicios publicos es la
principal fuente de variabilidad en las productividades de los
hogares. Por medio de tecnicas parametricas y no parametricas (
Propensity Scores Matching Estimators) se determina las
diferencias en productividad de las actividades del hogar,
utilizando informacion de la ENH desde 1988 hasta 2000. Se
encuentra que en promedio existe un diferencial de productividad
entre hogares de $21.640 de 1998.
Keywords: economia de la familia
JEL: H31
Date: 2004-10-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000737&r=all
119. MODELO DE ACUMULACION CON SALTO PELIGROSO
Samuel Jaramillo
En este trabajo se propone un modelo basico de acumulacion
capitalista que incorpore algunos de los rasgos fundamentales de
la Teoria del Valor Trabajo Abstracto de Marx que usualmente no
se tienen en cuenta en las formalizaciones de diversas
tradiciones teoricas. En particular se trata de introducir la
intuicion de Marx referida al hecho de que el valor se conforma
de manera simultanea en la produccion y en la circulacion (y
no solamente en uno de estos campos), y que la dimension
monetaria, su forma mas desarrollada, es consubstancial a su
operacion. Esto involucra la nocion de “separacion” de la
que habla Marx, segun la cual el productor individual nunca
tiene la certeza absoluta de que sus decisiones van a ser
validadas por el mercado de manera identica a sus planes: es el
“salto peligroso” de la circulacion en que el trabajo
concreto se convierte (o no) en trabajo abstracto. Se sigue y se
intenta desarrollar una intuicion propuesta por Carlo Benetti y
Jean Cartelier en que se modela de tal manera que las decisiones
individuales de los agentes generan demandas endogenas que no
son necesariamente identicas a las decisiones tomadas por ellos
como productores: la confrontacion en el mercado de ofertas y
demandas de corto plazo hace emerger “precios ex post” que
pueden variar con respecto a los “precios exante” con que se
han tomado las decisiones. Con ello se pretende capturar una
nocion central sobre la socializacion del mercado capitalista:
los agentes toman decisiones descentralizadas y no coordinadas de
antemano, que generan fenomenos de conjunto que los afectan y
que no coinciden necesariamente con sus previsiones unilaterales.
En el modelo se procura hacer algunos desarrollos y variantes con
respecto a la formalizacion de Benetti y Cartelier: en primer
lugar se plantea una economia de caracter capitalista, con
empresarios y asalariados; en segundo lugar, se da la posibilidad
de que tambien existan desajustes en las cantidades producidas y
realizadas, y no solamente posibles desfases entre precios ex
ante y expost; finalmente se explora la posibilidad de darle una
dimension iterativa que capture el caracter dinamico de la
economia, entre otros aspectos. La convergencia de estos rasgos
tiene algunas implicaciones teorico–metodologicas, entre las
que destaca el hecho de que no se reflexiona en terminos de
equilibrio, y que la atencion se centra precisamente en los
ajustes, cuyos efectos no se dan por sentados, sino que estos
ultimos son precisamente los interrogantes que se pretenden
dilucidar. Lo que se presenta es una version basica y elemental
del modelo con el fin de introducir la linea de reflexion y de
modelizacion, y se sugieren senderos de ampliacion y de
formalizacion ulteriores. Para ilustracion de la forma como
opera el modelo, y de sus alcances y limitaciones, se presenta
como anexo una corrida de el a partir de cifras arbitrarias.
Keywords: teoria del valor
JEL: B51
Date: 2004-10-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000738&r=all
120. PRECIOS INMOBILIARIOS EN EL MERCADO DE VIVIENDA EN BOGOTA
1970-2004
Samuel Jaramillo
Este trabajo consiste en la construccion de diferentes series
de precios referidas al mercado de la vivienda en Bogota en un
periodo que se extiende desde 1970 hasta 2004. Se presenta
inicialmente una serie atinente a la evolucion del canon de
alquiler a partir de las cifras construidas por el DANE para
calcular el Indice de Precios al Consumidor. Como complemento y
punto de contraste con esta serie, que es un Indice, se
construyen cifras sobre el alquiler a partir de las ofertas
publicadas en los periodicos, lo cual permite ademas, tener
magnitudes absolutas de precios. Con una metodologia similar se
construyen dos series de precios de compraventa de vivienda usada
y de vivienda nueva. Finalmente, se adaptan cifras producidas por
la Lonja de Propiedad Raiz de Bogota, referidas al precio de la
tierra destinada a vivienda, de tal manera que sean comparables
con las cifras anteriores. Este conjunto de series tienen la
ventaja de ser congruentes entre si, lo que abre la posibilidad
de realizar diferentes analisis. Un calculo en este sentido que
tiene gran relevancia y que se desarrolla en el texto, es una
estimacion de la evolucion de la rentabilidad de la inversion
en alquiler de vivienda. Las series tienen una expresion
agregada y una desagregacion ulterior en tres estratos de
ingreso. Hasta 1984 son de frecuencia anual, y a partir de alli
se tienen cifras semestrales. Entre los principales rasgos que
pueden extraerse de una mirada preliminar de estas cifras se
pueden destacar las siguientes: los diferentes precios de la
vivienda muestran una tendencia de largo plazo a la baja en
terminos reales bastante pronunciada. En contraste, los precios
del suelo muestran un crecimiento positivo y muy acentuado. A
pesar de esta disparidad los distintos mercados parecen estar muy
conectados, pues las oscilaciones de los precios sobre sus
respectivas tendencias son muy convergentes. La proporcion del
alquiler con respecto al precio de los inmuebles tiende a
contraerse con el tiempo. Esto, y el hecho de que en anos
recientes se ha vivido una fase de depresion de precios
particularmente profunda y prolongada, determina que la
rentabilidad de la inversion en alquiler en la ultima decada
ha sido muy baja, incluso inferior al rendimiento de las opciones
financieras mas pasivas. Comienza a observarse una tendencia a
la recuperacion en los precios, aunque un poco desigual en los
distintos estratos: mas pronunciada en el submercado de altos
ingresos, incipiente en los ingresos medios y mas debil en los
ingresos bajos.
Keywords: vivienda
JEL: R31
Date: 2004-10-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000739&r=all
121. CRECIMIENTO DEPARTAMENTALY VIOLENCIA CRIMINAL EN COLOMBIA
Pablo Querubin Borrero
El comportamiento de la economia colombiana en los ultimos
anos ha sido decepcionante. Existen diversas hipotesis sobre
las posibles causas de dicho desempeno. En particular, el
comportamiento poco satisfactorio del crecimiento economico ha
coincidido con un recrudecimiento de diversas manifestaciones de
violencia y con el fortalecimiento de los grupos armados con la
financiacion del narcotrafico. Asi, ademas de las
explicaciones convencionales al pobre desempeno de la economia
colombiana, algunos han especulado sobre el posible rol de la
violencia en la explicacion del comportamiento economico. Sin
embargo, y a pesar de la dinamica regional del conflicto,
ningun trabajo ha explorado hasta el momento el impacto de
diferentes manifestaciones de violencia sobre el crecimiento
economico departamental. Este trabajo reexamina la relacion
entre crecimiento departamental y criminalidad encontrada por
algunos trabajos para Colombia, y utiliza una metodologia de
diferencias en diferencias que permite superar algunos problemas
presentes en las regresiones de crecimiento tradicionales. Los
resultados revelan que las diferentes manifestaciones de
violencia asociadas al conflicto armado, el narcotrafico y la
delincuencia comun han desacelerado significativamente el
crecimiento economico de los departamentos en la decada de los
noventa.
Keywords: Crecimiento departamental
JEL: D74
Date: 2004-04-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000814&r=all
122. DEMAND FOR CHILD CARE AND FEMALE EMPLOYMENT IN COLOMBIA
Ximena Pena-Parga
Amanda Glassman
Due to the increase in labor force attachment of mothers of
young children in the last decade, child care policies have a
renewed importance. This paper uses Colombian data to perform a
characterization of the child care market, generating stylized
facts to inform the debate. The main trends are: highly informal
market, high participation and employment rates of mothers of
young children, relatively little “unmet need” for child care
services and the poor facing constraints to access the market for
child care, both in quantity and price. This study analyzes how
Colombian families make their child care decisions,
simultaneously choosing whether the mother works, whether to pay
for care and what mode to use. The estimations performed suggest
that there is a strong positive effect of child care choice on
the mother’s working decision, and that this effect is much
higher for low-income families. As children grow the availability
of formal care modes becomes determinant to enable the mother’s
labor force attachment.
Keywords: Childcare
JEL: J13
Date: 2004-11-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000907&r=all
123. DETERMINANTES, EFECTOS Y COSTOS DE LA VIOLENCIA
INTRAFAMILIAR EN COLOMBIA
Rocio Ribero
Fabio Sanchez
En este articulo se analizan los determinantes de la violencia
domestica en Colombia y se mide su impacto sobre diversas
variables de la mujer tales como el ingreso, la participacion
laboral, y en variables del hogar en particular el nivel de salud,
la educacion y la nutricion de los ninos. La evidencia
sugiere que entre los determinantes mas relevantes de la
violencia intrafamiliar se encuentran el haber sido victima o
testigo de violencia en el hogar materno, y estar casada o unida
a un hombre que consume alcohol de manera frecuente y elevada. A
traves de la tecnica del estimador de emparejamiento o
“matching estimator”, se estiman la magnitud de los efectos
de las diferentes formas de violencia intrafamiliar. Se encuentra
que si en un hogar existe maltrato severo a menores o agresiones
severas contra la mujer, los ingresos laborales mensuales de la
mujer son inferiores en cerca de 300.000 pesos (-70% menos
aproximadamente) de los que serian si no hubiera violencia
intrafamiliar (VIF). Asi mismo la VIF determina mayor
probabilidad de desempleo para la mujer, asi como peores
indicadores de salud para la mujer y los ninos frente a hogares
que no experimentan VIF. Con la magnitud estimada de los impactos
se procede a cuantificar los costos anuales de la VIF. Los
resultados indican que estos alcanzan cerca del 4% del PIB.
Keywords: Violencia intrafamiliar
JEL: J1
Date: 2004-11-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000908&r=all
124. LEY 789 DE 2002: ?FUNCIONO O NO?
Alejandro Gaviria
Este trabajo presenta una evaluacion de la Ley 789 de 2002,
conocida como la reforma laboral. La evaluacion no solo tiene
en cuenta la evidencia indirecta aportada por las encuestas de
hogares, sino tambien la evidencia directa recopilada por una
encuesta empresarial disenada expresamente para medir los
efectos de la reforma. El analisis muestra que (i) la reforma
tuvo un efecto notable sobre la contratacion de aprendices y
sobre el subempleo por insuficiencia de horas (especialmente en
el sector servicios), (ii) los efectos sobre la generacion de
empleo y sobre la formalizacion del empleo fueron inferiores a
lo esperado, y (iii) los programas de apoyo al desempleado y de
estimulo a la generacion de empleo no han funcionado.
Keywords: reforma laboral
JEL: J21
Date: 2004-11-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000909&r=all
125. LOCAL COMMONS AND CROSS-EFFECTS OF POPULATION AND
INEQUALITY ON THE LOCAL PROVISION OF ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES
Juan Camilo Cardenas
A farm-level and village level models are discussed and tested
empirically using spatial data, for exploring the cross-effects
between population density and land inequality in the “tragedy
of the commons”. Malthus himself argued that “An unfavourable
distribution of produce, by prematurely diminishing the demand
for labour, might retard the increase of food at an early period,
in the same manner as if cultivation and population had been
further advanced;” [Malthus (1830): pp. 239]. By exploring the
farm and village level institutions and incentives for allocating
land and labor to conservation or agriculture, the paper argues
that inequality exacerbates the population pressure over the
provision of environmental services, and that under more equal
distribution of land, more sustainable technological adaptations
may happen in which better farm and land-use practices emerge,
decreasing the level of land degradation.
Keywords: tragedy of the commons
JEL: O12
Date: 2004-12-15
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000910&r=all
126. COLOCAR MENOS CARTERA E INVERTIR EN TES: ?UNA DECISION
OPTIMA?. ANALISIS DE LAS INVERSIONES EN
Romel Rodriguez Hernandez
El tamano de los activos en las hojas de balance de los Bancos
Colombianos ha sufrido una importante recomposicion durante los
ultimos anos. El deterioro en la calidad de la cartera durante
la crisis economica de finales de los Noventa junto con el
notable incremento en la oferta de TES (Titulos de Tesoreria)
en el mercado primario, fue aprovechado por los Bancos para
cambiar su estrategia de inversion en procura de mayores
retornos. Este trabajo estudia la estrategia de inversion de los
Bancos Colombianos a partir de la Teoria de Portafolio, basada
en tres pilares fundamentales. Primero, la construccion de
Fronteras Eficientes y su correspondiente analisis de retorno
– riesgo; segundo, el uso de metodos parametricos para
modelar la distribucion estadistica de las perdidas asociadas
con la inversion en cartera o en TES; tercero, la construccion
de modelos econometricos de heterocedasticidad condicional (
GARCH) que estiman la volatilidad de la inversion en TES. Los
resultados obtenidos para el periodo considerado (1995 – 2003)
evidencian un incremento en la perdida esperada por colocacion
de cartera, independientemente del nivel de diversificacion, y
un menor Valor en Riesgo (VAR) en los portafolios de inversion
que incrementan la participacion en TES disminuyendo la de
cartera. Sin embargo, la creciente volatilidad observada en el
Mercado de TES, especialmente los de largo plazo, que son los de
mayor liquidez en el mercado de capitales nacional, ha
contribuido al aumento en el VAR de las inversiones de los bancos,
en particular, si abandona el supuesto de normalidad en la
distribucion de las perdidas y se consideran distribuciones
estadisticas de valor extremo. El aporte de este trabajo es
haber demostrado que la estrategia de inversion aplicada por los
Bancos, enfocada hacia la maximizacion de los retornos y la
minimizacion de riesgos es optima solo si son impuestas
restricciones al porcentaje de los activos que pueden ser
invertidos en Cartera y TES, de acuerdo con el comportamiento
estadistico de los retornos y las perdidas que se infiere de la
base de datos.
Keywords: TES
JEL: C32
Date: 2005-01-15
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000911&r=all
127. DEL CAMPO A LA CIUDAD EN COLOMBIA. LA INFILTRACION URBANA
DE LOS SENORES DE LA GUERRA
Gustavo Duncan
Para sorpresa de la opinion en Colombia, la mafia en el sentido
de la definicion tradicional de ‘empresarios de la
proteccion’, asociada a la imagen de los mafiosos sicilianos,
rusos o los japoneses de la yakuza, es un fenomeno muy reciente
en la historia de las ciudades del pais. Mas de una decada
posterior al apogeo de Pablo Escobar y el Cartel de Medellin. Su
principal objetivo es el logro del monopolio de la coercion y la
proteccion de una serie de actividades susceptibles al control
del crimen organizado como los mercados de abastos, la extorsion,
el narcotrafico, y como logro de un nivel superior, la
apropiacion del poder politico en las ciudades. El siguiente
documento es una descripcion de lo que ha sido el proceso
evolutivo de la mafia en Colombia, de carteles de
narcotraficantes a redes de crimen organizado que basan su mayor
o menor grado de poder en la capacidad de regular violentamente
una serie de transacciones de alto valor estrategico en las
ciudades. La tesis central del documento es que la irrupcion
masiva de redes mafiosas en las ciudades solo ha sido posible
por el apoyo logistico, militar y financiero recibido por los
jefes de las autodefensas desde el campo. Las consecuencias de la
infiltracion urbana de la mafia rebasan el tema de la crisis de
seguridad y se enmarcan en transformaciones estructurales del
Estado. Tras los intereses de una nueva elite de senores de la
guerra esta la tension entre fuerzas urbanas que pretenden
construir una sociedad regida por principios democraticos con un
capitalismo moderno versus fuerzas rurales que quieren dispersar
el poder del Estado para construir gobiernos regionales basados
en la inmunidad de empresas criminales. En el nuevo contexto de
la disputa por la configuracion del Estado, la connotacion de
lo del campo deja de estar vinculada a la imagen tradicional de
economias y sociedades campesinas. Ahora se trata de las areas
de influencia de municipios e incluso ciudades intermedias que de
la mano de su historia rural han experimentado procesos de
urbanizacion y terciarizacion de la economia, en gran parte
gracias a los excedentes del narcotrafico.
Keywords: crimen organizado
JEL: D74
Date: 2005-01-15
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000912&r=all
128. AIR POLLUTION MANAGEMENT IN TWO COLOMBIAN CITIES:
Eduardo Uribe
This document is a case study that focuses on the air pollution
problems of Bogota and Medellin. These are the largest; most
populated and industrialized cities of Colombia. The document
presents a brief description of the evolution of relevant
institutional aspects. It describes the pollution problems of
these cities, their sources, their effects on health and the
measures to control and to prevent them. Following the framework
of the WDR 2003 , this document analyzes how society becomes
aware of air pollution problems and the mechanisms that have
generated the decision to undertake air pollution control
strategies. It also discusses the mechanisms which have been in
place to balance legitimate, competing social interests, and the
means by which the adopted solutions are executed. Finally, the
document presents a series of lessons and recommendations.
Keywords: air pollution
JEL: N5
Date: 2005-01-15
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000913&r=all
129. THE EVOLUTION OF COLOMBIAN ENVIRONMENTAL INSTITUTIONS: 1971
2004
Eduardo Uribe
This document presents an analytical description of the
processes by which Colombian environmental institutions and
regulations evolved between 1971 and 2004. The methodology used
was based on the analytical framework of the 2003 World Bank
Development Report: “Sustainable Development in a Dynamic World:
Transforming Institutions, Growth, and Quality of Life”. For
this analysis, the recent history of environmental management in
Colombia is divided in four periods. The first period begins in
1971 and ends with the approval of the Constitution of 1991. The
second period begins in 1991 and ends in 1993 with the approval
of Law 99. The third period extents from 1994 to 2002; during
this period the environmental institutions and regulations
created by Law 99 of 1993 were developed. The last period begins
in year 2002 when new reforms to the institutional environmental
framework were proposed and implemented by the government. For
each of those four periods the document analyzes the means by
which society became aware of environmental problems; the
mechanisms that generated social demand for their solution; and
the mechanisms to balance legitimate, competing social interests
and by which adopted solutions were executed. Finally, the
document includes a list of conclusions.
Keywords: environment
JEL: N5
Date: 2005-01-15
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000914&r=all
130. THE POLICY FOR THE SOCIAL PARTICIPATION IN CONSERVATION:
CASE STUDY
Eduardo Uribe
Colombia is one the world’s richest countries in biological
resources. To protect them, Colombian Law created the National
Parks in 1959. Further regulations for their creation and
administration were approved during the seventies. However, they
did not include mechanisms to balance conservation interests with
other economic and social development priorities. Presently, the
ample majority of the National Parks overlap with the traditional
territories of indigenous, black and campesino communities. This
affects their economies and imposes restrictions on the
traditional uses of natural resources. In 2002 the national
government approved the Policy for the Social Participation in
Conservation which seeks to promote the implementation of
conservation strategies with the participation of local
stakeholders. To illustrate the effects of this Policy, and
following the analytical framework of the WDR 2003 , the
processes of declaration of two national parks are compared:
Corales del Rosario National Park, and Alto Fagua Indiwasi
National Park. Finally, the document presents a series of lessons
and recommendations.
Keywords: conservation
JEL: N5
Date: 2005-01-15
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000915&r=all
131. THE ALLOCATION OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE BOGOTA ALLOCATION
OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE BOGOTA SAVANNA REGION: CASE STUDY
Eduardo Uribe
The Bogota Savanna is a fertile Andean plateau located in the
central region of Colombia. It is an important agricultural
region, and the most industrialized and densely populated area of
the country. In this region, human consumption demands most of
the available water; the development of the agricultural, energy,
and industry sectors is highly dependent on water availability.
Water scarcity is prevalent in some rural areas of the region and
becomes more severe during the months of January, February, July
and August. Therefore, decisions related to water allocation are
of the large economic importance. Since the sixties, a series of
regulations and institutional arrangements were devised to
allocate water among the different users in this region. However,
the efficiency, transparency and equity of those institutional
mechanisms and regulations leave much to be desired. This is case
study illustrates this situation by applying the analytical
framework of the World Development Report (WDR) 2003
Keywords: water
JEL: N5
Date: 2005-01-15
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000916&r=all
132. NATURAL RESOURCE CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT IN THE SIERRA
NEVADA OF SANTA MARTA: CASE STUDY
Eduardo Uribe
The Sierra Nevada of Santa Marta of Colombia is a region of
immense cultural, historical, ecological and biological value.
However, external interventions have caused serious cultural,
social and environmental damage. This case study illustrates how
the development of a constitutional, legal and policy framework,
which recognized the cultural and territorial rights of the
indigenous communities of the Sierra Nevada, facilitated the
building of coordination mechanisms for the design of
conservation strategies. It also shows how there still are
important challenges to secure the effectiveness and equity of
these strategies. Following the analytical framework of the World
Development Report (WDR) 2003 , this case study analyzes how
society and institutions became aware of the values and problems
of the Sierra Nevada of Santa Marta, the mechanisms that have
generated decisions to undertake action, the mechanisms which
have been in place to balance legitimate and competing social
interests, and the means by which the adopted solutions have been
executed. Finally, this document presents some lessons and
recommendations.
Keywords: conservation
JEL: N5
Date: 2005-01-12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000917&r=all
133. THE WATER TREATMENT PLANTS OF THE BOGOTA RIVER: CASE STUDY
Eduardo Uribe
Since de early seventies a number of technical sanitation
alternatives were proposed to clean the wastewaters of the
Bogota River. However, mainly for economic reasons, they were
not implemented. It was only until the early nineties that the
administration of the city of Bogota decided to adopt a strategy
for the sanitation of the River, and a concession contract for
the construction and operation of a series of treatment plants
was signed in 1994. However, the decision was not the result of
judicious analysis and it ignored the results of previous
technical studies and evaluations. The treatment plants began
operations at the end of 2000. In 2003 the city’s
administration decided, at a high cost for the city, to terminate
that concession contract. This decision was justified based on
the limited benefits and high costs of the sanitation project.
This case study analyses how this project which was financially
and technically indefensible was eventually be implemented. For
this purpose the analytical framework of the WDR 2003 is used.
Keywords: water pollution
JEL: N5
Date: 2005-01-15
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000918&r=all
134. DETERMINANTES DE LA CALIDAD DE LOS NINOS EN TERMINOS DE
SALUD Y EDUCACION EN COLOMBIA
Ana Cristina Gonzalez
Rocio Ribero
El objetivo de este trabajo es establecer los determinantes de
la calidad de los ninos en Colombia. Se estimo un modelo que
determina la fecundidad y otro que determina el estado marital de
las mujeres. Variables como la educacion de la madre y el
indicador de riqueza del hogar mostraron una relacion negativa
con la fecundidad. En cuanto a las variables exogenas a la madre,
se comprobo la relacion negativa entre el uso de metodos de
planificacion en la region y la fecundidad. Se consideraron la
talla y el peso y la educacion de los menores como indicadores
de calidad. Se comprobo la interaccion existente entre cantidad
y calidad para todos los indicadores. Cuando se estimaron los
modelos con la variable estado civil, como proxy de la estructura
familiar se encontraron relaciones positivas entre la calidad y
el estar casada. El que las tendencias indiquen que las uniones
consensuales y los divorcios aumentan, puede ser preocupante,
pues como se muestra, este tipo de estructura puede afectar la
calidad de los ninos.
Keywords: fecundidad
JEL: J1
Date: 2005-01-15
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000919&r=all
135. POLITICAS DE CONTROL DE OFERTA DE COCA: “LA ZANAHORIA”
Y “EL GARROTE”
Elizabeth Tabares
Ramon Rosales
El interes por evaluar la efectividad de las politicas de
erradicacion y desarrollo alternativo en el control de la
produccion de hoja de coca en Colombia ha sido creciente,
principalmente porque no existe evidencia cuantitativa sobre el
efecto de la gran inversion de recursos para la aplicacion de
las mismas. En este trabajo, se estimaron simultaneamente los
efectos del desarrollo alternativo y la erradicacion aerea
usando datos a nivel municipal en el periodo 1998-2002 en un
modelo de asignacion de areas entre cultivos, considerando el
comportamiento de los productores frente al riesgo de la
actividad. Los resultados muestran que la inversion en
desarrollo alternativo tiene un efecto pequeno, aunque
estadisticamente significativo, en la reduccion del area de
coca cultivada. Un incremento de US $ 1,000 en proyectos de
desarrollo alternativo reduce 0.169 hectareas de coca. La
erradicacion no tiene un efecto estadisticamente significativo
en las expectativas de los productores al considerar las
variables area erradicada y frecuencia de erradicacion. Un
incremento de US $ 1,000 en los esfuerzos de erradicacion reduce
0128 hectareas de coca, las cuales se supone seran resembradas
o compensadas en otra parte dentro o fuera del municipio.
Keywords: produccion de coca
JEL: D81
Date: 2005-02-15
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000920&r=all
136. NO-LINEALIDADES EN LA DEMANADA DE EFECTIVO EN COLOMBIA: LAS
REDES NEURONALES COMO HERRAMIENTA DE PRONOSTICO
MARTHA ALICIA MISAS ARANGO
ENRIQUE ANTONIO LOPEZ ENCISO
CARLOS ARANGO
JUAN NICOLAS HERNANDEZ
Forecasting the demand for cash in Colombia has become a true
challenge in the recent past. The last decade witnessed strong
changes in the variables that determine the demand for money:
Inflation and, hence, interest rates, fall substantially,
technological progress was strong in the Colombian Payment System
and distorting Tobin-like taxes to financial transactions were
imposed. These changes are of special relevance when the demand
for money is a non-linear function of its determinants. In this
paper we exploit the flexibility of artificial neural networks (
ANN) to explore the existence of nonlinearity in the demand for
cash. The results show that the ANN models outperform those of
linear nature in terms of forecast errors. Furthermore,
significant evidence is found of non-linearity in the dynamics of
the demand for cash.
Keywords: DEMAND FOR MONEY,
JEL: C45
Date: 2004-12-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000140:000941&r=all
137. CUENTA CORRIENTE Y RESTRICCION PRESUPUESTARIA INTERTEMPORAL:
UN CONTRASTE DE LA VIABILIDAD DEL FINANCIEAMIENTO EXTERNO.
JUAN CARLOS VARGAS BERDUGO
This paper proposes an econometrical specification to contrast
the external financing viability, derived from the intertemporal
current account approach and the non-stationary time series
analysis. Specifically, it discusses an strategy that allows to
overcome the eventual inconsistency of cointegration analysis
amongst processes I(1) in presence of multicointegration. The
proposed methodology exceeds precedent works (Leachman and
Francis, 2000) since it relaxes the stationarity assumption of
the commercial balance and incorporates the net foreign assets
dynamics into the discussion around the empirical validity of the
intertemporal budget constraint.
Keywords: MULTICOINTEGRATION,
JEL: C52
Date: 2004-12-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000140:000942&r=all
138. EFFICIENT POLICY RULE FOR INFLATION TARGETING IN COLOMBIA
MARTHA ROSALBA LOPEZ PINEROS
Utilizando un modelo macroeconomico de pequena escala para la
economia colombiana, se investiga el problema de seleccionar una
regla de politica simple; una regla que utilice un conjunto
reducido de informacion, que sea consistente con un regimen de
inflacion objetivo. A pesar de que las reglas de politica
simples no son tan eficientes como lo serian las reglas de
politica optimas, en la literatura se ha mostrado que algunas
reglas simples pueden aproximarlas muy bien. Se explican las
caracteristicas de los parametros de reaccion y de producto en
reglas simples de Taylor e IFB, asi como el horizonte optimo de
pronostico para inflacion objetivo. Mediante el uso de
simulaciones estocasticas del modelo se encuentra que, como se
esperaba, las reglas simples que utilizan proyecciones de la
inflacion en lugar de la inflacion contemporanea tienen
mejores propiedades de estabilizacion.
Keywords: INFLACION OBJETIVO,
JEL: C45
Date: 2004-12-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000140:000943&r=all
139. TRADE BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND EAST ASIA: AN ANALYSIS USING A
CGE MODEL
MARIA TERESA RAMIREZ GIRALDO
ANA MARIA IREGUI BOHORQUEZ
MARIA DEL PILAR ESGUERRA U
Este articulo presenta un analisis empirico de la
integracion comercial de Colombia y Asia del Este utilizando un
modelo de equilibrio general computable, en el cual se evaluan
los efectos de varios escenarios de liberalizacion comercial
sobre los flujos de comercio y el bienestar. Los resultados
muestran que existe un potencial importante para el desarrollo de
las exportaciones colombianas de productos quimicos,
confecciones, textiles y otras cosechas como flores, semillas de
frutas, cafe, entre otros. Este resultado no se deriva de la
firma de un tratado de libre comercio, sino de la eliminacion
unilateral de aranceles en ambas regiones
Keywords: MODELOS DE EQUILIBRIO GENERAL COMPUTABLES,
JEL: C68
Date: 2004-12-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000140:000944&r=all
140. SOBRE LOS EFECTOS DE LA POLITICA MONETARIA EN COLOMBIA
ALVARO RIASCOS
LUIS FERNANDO MELO VELANDIA
En este documento estudiamos algunos canales, mecanismos de
ampli- ficacion y los efectos cuantitativos de la politica
monetaria en Colombia. Adicionalmente, sugerimos una metodologia
completa, consistente teoricamente con la teoria del Equilibrio
General y practica para el analisis de politica y pronosticos
de variables economicas de interes.
Keywords: MONETARY POLICY,
Date: 2004-12-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000140:000945&r=all
141. TIPOLOGIA Y TASA NATURAL DEL DESEMPLEO PARA EL MERCADO
LABORAL DEL AREA METROPOLITANA DECALI: 1988-2000
LINA MARITZA GOMEZ RIVERA
El objetivo de este documento es ademas de estimar la tasa de
desempleo de equilibrio (para lo que se empleara la Curva de
Phillips Salarial), llegar a un acercamiento a su tipologia,
empleando la metodologia propuesta por Layard et al (1991),
identificando asi, la proporcion que ocupan en el desempleo de
equilibrio el nivel estructural y el friccional, con el fin de
aproximarse a los factores que ocasionan tales magnitudes para el
Area Metropolitana de Cali durante el periodo 1988:1-2000:4.
Keywords: Desempleo
Date: 2004-07-21
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000141:000604&r=all
142. DETERMINANTES DE LA PROBABILIDAD DE ESTAR DESEMPLEADO EN EL
AREA METROPOLITANA DE CALI: EVIDENCIAS MICRO Y
MACROECONOMICAS EN EL PERIODO 198
MARIBEL CASTILLO CAICEDO
En este documento se hara primeramente una revision de las
diferentes corrientes economicas que han estudiado la tasa de
desempleo, para determinar como el estudio macroeconomico, ha
ido dando paso al estudio de este problema en terminos
microeconomicos; de la misma manera se mostrara como se ha
utilizado el modelo de busqueda y su analisis en terminos
micro y macroeconomicos. En el segundo punto se planteara la
teoria de la busqueda como pilar fundamental para el analisis
microeconomico de la probabilidad de estar desempleado. En un
tercer punto se esboza el estado del arte en Colombia, en un
cuarto y quinto punto algunas consideraciones del estado del arte
en Colombia con relacion a los determinantes de la probabilidad
de estar desempleado y un cuadro sinoptico sobre el mismo.
Cerrando el trabajo se presenta la metodologia, los resultados y
las conclusiones.
Keywords: Desempleo
Date: 2004-07-21
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000141:000610&r=all
143. DETERMINANTES DE LA TASA DE ENTRADA AL DESEMPLEO PARA EL
AREA METROPOLITANA DE CALI 1988 - 2000
OLGA LUCIA BRINEZ GAVIRIA
Este documento describe la evolucion de la tasa de entrada al
desempleo en el Area Metropolitana de Cali durante el periodo
1988-2000 con el objetivo de identificar sus determinantes. Se
trata de observar si sus movimientos estan relacionados con la
predominancia de los cesantes, asociados a la influencia del
ritmo de actividad economica sobre el desempleo, o si existe
predominancia de los aspirantes, quienes reflejan los
desequilibrios relacionados con el crecimiento poblacional y el
sistema educativo, asi como las inflexibilidades del aparato
productivo. Para verificar lo anterior, se presenta evidencia
sobre el cumplimiento de algunas propiedades de las series de
tiempo que se incluyen en el modelo de regresion tales como la
tasa de entrada, de cesantes y de aspirantes. Se concluye que las
series son estacionarias en tendencia y entonces los parametros
del modelo se pueden estimar por MCO, obteniendose como
resultado que las entradas al desempleo han estado mas
influenciadas por los cesantes. Este resultado es consistente con
las politicas de despido, producto de la reestructuracion
implementada en varios sectores economicos de la ciudad para
adecuarse a la apertura economica, y que se hizo mas evidente
durante la recesion economica de los noventa.
Keywords: Mercado Laboral
Date: 2004-07-21
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000141:000611&r=all
144. PRESENTE, PEDAGOGIA Y FUTURO DE LA ECONOMETRIA
Carlos Enrique Castellar Palma
El objetivo de este pequeno documento es argumentar a favor de
una docencia mas profunda con un grado de diversidad entre el
formalismo matematico y los procedimientos. Igualmente se
sustentara los beneficios de iniciar desde el modelo ingenuo. A
continuacion se muestra que desde dicho modelo hay interaccion
con la Teoria Economica; en la siguiente seccion se esboza la
propuesta pedagogica; la quinta seccion sugiere los caminos
futuros de la Econometria; conclusiones, referencias
bibliograficas y listados de computador completan el texto.
Keywords: Econometria
Date: 2004-06-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000141:000612&r=all
145. ANALISIS ECONOMICO DEL RIESGO DE EXTINCION DE LAS
ESPECIES DE FAUNA EN COLOMBIA: REPTILES Y PECES
DULCEACUICOLAS
FABIO ALBERTO ARIAS ARBELAEZ
El riesgo de extincion de una especie se estima por la
evaluacion del estado de deterioro de la poblacion. Una especie
silvestre y no extinta puede ser evaluada y clasificada como: En
Peligro Critico, En Peligro, Vulnerable, Cuasiamenazada, de
Preocupacion Menor. En Colombia se ha realizado esta
clasificacion para algunos grupos de fauna y flora. En este
trabajo se utiliza la informacion de la Serie Libros Rojos de
Especies Amenazadas de Colombia (Reptiles, Peces dulceacuicolas)
para calcular el cambio en la probabilidad del riesgo de
extincion ante variaciones de variable economicas que describen
algun tipo de presion por explotacion directa del recurso o
modificacion del habitat. La herramienta cuantitativa para el
analisis de la informacion es un modelo de variable dependiente
discreta ordenada.
Keywords: Riesgo de Extincion de las Especies
Date: 2004-01-20
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000141:000622&r=all
146. INDUSTRIALIZACION, INFORMALIDAD Y COMERCIO INTERNACIONAL
CARLOS HUMBERTO ORTIZ QUEVEDO
JOSE IGNACIO URIBE GARCIA
En este trabajo se recrea un modelo de la economia mundial que
se caracteriza por industrializacion marginal con una creciente
integracion tecnologica anterior. El sector industrial tiene
altos costos de entrada, demanda trabajo calificado, y
experimenta rendimientos constantes a escala en insumos y trabajo
calificado. La productividad manufacturera en su conjunto aumenta
con la diversificacion industrial. Por otra parte, los servicios
demandan trabajo no calificado y los costos de entrada son nulos.
Los bienes manufactureros son (internacionalmente) transables;
los servicios no lo son. La gente ofrece trabajo inelasticamente
para salarios por encima del nivel de subsistencia. Existe por
otra parte una abundante oferta de trabajo no calificado. Con
estos supuestos se genera un sector informal de bajos salarios
relacionado con las actividades de servicios. En la economia
mundial integrada por el comercio internacional se puede generar
una brecha de ingresos entre los paises del Norte y los del Sur
si el diferencial en diversificacion industrial excede cierto
umbral; para este resultado es necesario suponer fuertes
restricciones a la migracion internacional. Finalmente, se
considera el caso de una economia subdesarrollada que se abre al
comercio internacional. Si el pais se abre antes (despues) de
alcanzar un cierto umbral de industrializacion se especializa en
actividades de baja (alta) diversificacion industrial y su
ingreso converge al bajo (alto) nivel de los paises del Sur (
Norte); este es el caso de los paises recientemente
desindustrializados (industrializados). El modelo propone la
necesidad de una politica de diversificacion industrial y de
educacion de la poblacion.
Keywords: Industrializacion
Date: 2004-09-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000141:000670&r=all
147. UNA PROPUESTA DE CONCEPTUALIZACION Y MEDICION DEL SECTOR
INFORMAL
Jose Ignacio Uribe Garcia
Carlos Humberto Ortiz Quevedo
En este documento se exponen los tres enfoques analiticos mas
importantes sobre la informalidad laboral en los paises
subdesarrollados. El enfoque estructuralista, que le da prioridad
en la explicacion al escaso desarrollo del sector moderno de la
economia; el enfoque de los mercados de trabajo segmentados, que
parte de la vision anterior pero plantea la importancia de las
instituciones laborales en el interior de las empresas modernas (
mercados internos de trabajo) para explicar las limitaciones a la
movilidad del trabajo entre los sectores y las diferencias en
ingresos; y finalmente, el enfoque institucionalista, que
enfatiza en los costos de transaccion y de permanencia en el
sector formal como elemento esencial en la escogencia de
permanecer al margen de la legalidad. Dado que la informalidad
como conjunto de analisis abarca a un grupo heterogeneo de
agentes, se postula que cada una de las teorias planteadas sobre
este tema contribuye a explicar el fenomeno que intentan
analizar. Ademas, en este trabajo se plantea que las diferentes
teorias mencionadas podrian complementarse alrededor de la
hipotesis de la existencia de rendimientos crecientes a escala
en capital fisico y humano. Lo que no se considera adecuado de
ninguna forma es abandonar el concepto de informalidad y
referirse solo a sus caracteristicas, como lo propone el BID (
2004). La ausencia de teoria no contribuye a entender las
interrelaciones entre los elementos que componen la estructura de
la informalidad ni sus causas.
Keywords: Informalidad Laboral
Date: 2004-10-20
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000141:000722&r=all
148. CANALES DE BUSQUEDA DE EMPLEO EN EL MERCADO LABORAL
COLOMBIANO 2003
Jose Ignacio Uribe Garcia
Lina Maritza Gomez R.
En este documento se estudian los canales de informacion mas
utilizados en el mercado laboral colombiano. Se inicia esbozando
la teoria de la informacion y su relacion con la busqueda de
empleo. Continua con el analisis de la relacion entre la
busqueda de empleo y las redes o canales de informacion.
Enseguida se exponen algunos modelos clasicos de busqueda.
Posteriormente se le da sustento empirico a lo planteado
estudiando los canales concretos de busqueda que utilizan los
trabajadores colombianos. Se utiliza la informacion de la
Encuesta de Calidad de Vida (ECV) del DANE, aplicada en el ano
2003. Se encontro que el canal mas utilizado para conseguir
empleo en el mercado laboral colombiano es pedir ayuda a
familiares, amigos o colegas, lo cual le da mayor relevancia al
uso de los canales informales frente a los formales. Este
predominio de los canales informales muestra que nuestro mercado
laboral no se ha institucionalizado suficientemente, razon por
la cual se encuentran grandes deficiencias en el proceso de
intermediacion laboral. El CIE del SENA constituye el canal
formal que menor tiempo de busqueda medio reporta, lo cual
sugiere que es un mecanismo eficaz como intermediador del mercado
laboral colombiano dado que su politica de seguimiento de casos
permite reducir efectivamente la asimetria de informacion,
tanto por el lado de la oferta como de la demanda.
Keywords: Busqueda de Empleo
Date: 2004-12-20
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000141:000869&r=all
149. ?QUE TAN SEGMENTADO ERA EL MERCADO LABORAL COLOMBIANO EN
LA DECADA DE LOS NOVENTA?
Jose Ignacio Uribe Garcia
Javier Andres Castro H.
Carlos Humberto Ortiz Quevedo
En este documento se analiza la cuestion de la segmentacion en
el mercado laboral para Colombia en la decada de los noventa.
Segmentacion que se puede observar dentro de una clasificacion
teniendo en cuenta una aproximacion del factor capital humano y
capital fisico a traves de las regresiones mincerianas tipicas.
Se encuentra que con mayor nivel educativo se tiene mejores
condiciones laborales y satisfaccion con el puesto de trabajo,
de la misma forma que se han identificado barreras no economicas
a la movilidad entre segmentos. Igualmente, se observa que los
elementos institucionales no presentan el mismo efecto en la
segmentacion del mercado.
Keywords: Segmentacion
Date: 2004-12-20
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000141:000870&r=all
150. DETERMINANTES DE LAS DECISIONES EN EL MERCADO LABORAL: LA
DECISION DE SER INFORMAL EN COLOMBIA 1988-2000
Jose Ignacio Uribe Garcia
Carlos Humberto Ortiz Quevedo
Juan Byron Correa Fonnegra
El proposito de este trabajo es examinar como se toman las
decisiones en el mercado laboral con enfasis en la decision de
ser informal. Inicialmente se supone que las decisiones de los
agentes se toman en forma secuencial. Bajo este supuesto, se
examina en primer lugar la decision de participar o no en el
mercado laboral. Posteriormente se examina la decision de
emplearse o seguir buscando. Finalmente, una vez que el agente ha
decidido emplearse, se examina su decision sobre la calidad del
empleo que aceptara (formal o informal). En esta primera
estrategia analitica se utiliza la estimacion bivariada o
binomial. En una segunda instancia, y en consideracion a los
posibles sesgos de estimacion que resultan del supuesto de
secuencialidad –cuando posiblemente la decision es simultanea-
se realiza una estimacion multinomial, la cual, como dice su
nombre, presupone multiples alternativas de eleccion de forma
simultanea.
Keywords: Mercado laboral
Date: 2004-12-20
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000141:000871&r=all
151. CARACTERISTICAS DE LA INFORMALIDAD URBANA EN LAS DIEZ
PRINCIPALES AREAS METROPOLITANAS DE COLOMBIA: 1988-2000
Carlos Humberto Ortiz Quevedo
Jose Ignacio Uribe Garcia
En este trabajo se realiza una descripcion analitica del
mercado laboral con enfasis en el sector informal de las diez
principales ciudades de Colombia. Esta exploracion se realiza
con base en diferentes perspectivas teoricas sobre la
informalidad laboral. En primer lugar, se examina al sector
informal, tal como lo clasifica el DANE, desde la perspectiva
estructuralista; en esta vision, el sector informal se explica
fundamentalmente por la estrechez interna del sector moderno, lo
cual genera actividades secundarias con menores remuneraciones y
con condiciones de trabajo inferiores. Posteriormente se examina
al mismo sector informal desde la perspectiva institucionalista;
o sea, se examina basicamente el grado de cumplimiento de la
normatividad institucional por parte de los trabajadores y de las
empresas en las cuales laboran. Finalmente, con base en la
hipotesis de que las empresas experimentan rendimientos a escala
en capital fisico y humano, se desagrega al mercado laboral por
tamano de planta: trabajadores unipersonales no profesionales ni
tecnicos; famiempresas (2 a 5 trabajadores); microempresas (6 a
10 trabajadores); sector informal pequeno (empresas con hasta
diez trabajadores en las cuales laboran profesionales o tecnicos)
y sector formal grande (mas de diez trabajadores).
Keywords: Informalidad
Date: 2004-12-20
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000141:000872&r=all
152. GUERRA IRREGULAR, INTERACCION ESTRATEGICA Y CONJETURAS:
?QUE ESPERAN EJERCITOS Y CIVILES?
Maria del Pilar Castillo Valencia
Boris Salazar Trujillo
En un contexto de guerra irregular, organizaciones armadas
combaten por el control territorial, y la poblacion civil
establece preferencias con respecto a situaciones definidas por
las oportunidades economicas disponibles y por la probabilidad
de supervivencia asociada a permanecer en un territorio
especifico. Proponemos dos modelos. En un modelo de interaccion
estrategica, las organizaciones armadas tratan de maximizar su
control territorial. Los territorios se caracterizan por su
estado: o estan bajo el control de una organizacion (o
coalicion de ellas), o estan en disputa. Las organizaciones
armadas deben elegir un nivel de accion (una estrategia completa)
que sea mejor respuesta frente a la eleccion de su rival. Los
estados de los territorios cambian o permanecen estables de
acuerdo a la evolucion de la guerra. Un segundo modelo analiza
las elecciones de los civiles con respecto a su supervivencia. En
la medida en que la disputa territorial conduce a una
probabilidad de supervivencia decreciente, los civiles deciden
desplazarse para mejorar sus probabilidades de sobrevivir.
Elegiran lugares que minimicen su perdida economica y social y
aumenten su probabilidad de supervivencia. Como los civiles saben
lo que hicieron en el pasado y lo que deberian esperar de la
organizacion armada que intenta disputar o reconquistar un
territorio, construimos un sistema de conjeturas que es el puente
racional entre el nuevo orden de preferencias y la probabilidad
de supervivencia. Siguiendo el trabajo de Morris y Kayii (1995)
conjeturamos que la probabilidad de supervivencia es p-belief
para los civiles que deben decidir si abandonan o no un
territorio en disputa. El papel de las redes sociales es crucial
para asegurar la convergencia de las decisiones de los civiles
con un minimo costo de deliberacion.
Keywords: Conjeturas
JEL: C70
Date: 2004-12-20
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000141:000873&r=all
153. DETERMINANTES DEL ESTADO DE SALUD DE LA POBLACION
COLOMBIANA
Luis Miguel Tovar Cuevas
Fabio Alberto Arias Arbelaez
En este articulo se establecen y evaluan los factores
determinantes del estado de salud de los colombianos a partir de
los datos obtenidos en la Encuesta Nacional de Calidad de Vida,
realizada por el DANE en el ano 2003. Para el analisis de la
informacion se utiliza un modelo de respuesta multiple ordenado.
Los resultados confirman las predicciones del modelo estandar
de demanda por salud para Colombia en el 2003 pero ademas se
avanza en la mejor descripcion de la inequidad en los regimenes
de seguridad en salud. Abstracts: this article establishes and
evaluates the determinant factors of the Colombians state of
health, from the data obtained in the quality of life national
survey, carried out by DANE in the year 2003. It uses an ordered
multiple answer model as a quantitative tool for the analysis of
the information. The results confirm the prediction of the health
demand standard model for Colombia in the year 2003, moreover, it
advances in a better description of the inequity in the health
security regimes.
Keywords: Demanda de salud
Date: 2005-02-20
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000141:000927&r=all
154. THE WELFARE EFFECTS OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION: EVIDENCE FROM
THE CAR INDUSTRY IN COLOMBIA
Jorge Tovar
In this paper I examine the effects of trade liberalization on
firms’ performance and consumers’ welfare. Using product
level data, I study firms’ performance in the Colombian
automobile industry. Given my disaggregated data I can estimate
pre and post-reform price-cost margins, as well as calculate the
results by origin of production. Before the reforms were
implemented, imported cars had prohibitively high tariffs, on
average 200%, and were essentially unavailable. After the reforms
such tariffs were reduced to 38% on average. I find that as the
industry restructured prior to the liberalization process, price-
cost margins dropped from 33% to 24%. After the reforms, margins
increased because of the associated lower costs, but then again
started to fall, reaching a low 23% for domestic cars. The
behavior of price-cost margins is explained by increasing
domestic competition prior to the reforms, the associated
decrease in costs after the reforms and the relatively unchanged
market structure. On the consumer side, the approach I follow
allows me to estimate the monetary gains due to the
liberalization process. I find the post-reform gains in
consumers’ welfare to be, as a consequence of declining prices
and increased variety, over three thousand dollars per purchaser.
A counterfactual simulation, where it is assumed that no foreign
cars were available after the reforms, suggests that the gains
achieved by consumers are due, for the most part, to increased
variety rather than to price competition.
Keywords: Trade Liberalization
JEL: D43
Date: 2004-08-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000145:000579&r=all
155. THE ECONOMICS OF TRANSMILENIO, A MASS TRANSIT SYSTEM FOR
BOGOTA
Juan Carlos Echeverry
Ana Maria Ibanez
Luis Carlos Hillon
By the end of the 1990s, inefficiency, excess supply and low
service quality characterized the mass transit system of Bogota.
The average travel time to work was one hour and ten minutes,
obsolete buses provided public transport, traffic generated 70
percent of air pollution and there were frequent traffic
accidents. To address all of these issues, the municipal and
national governments designed and put in place a new mass transit
system named TransMilenio (TM), which came into operation in
January 2001. The purpose of this paper is to analyze Bogota’s
mass transit system before and after TM, study the political
economy of its adoption process and conduct a cost-benefit
analysis (CBA) of the first phase of the system. The new transit
system is a hybrid model that combines public planning of the
network structure, route tendering conditions, regulation and
supervision, as well as private operation of the separated
functions of revenue collection and transport service. The
adoption of this new model needed to resolve delicate political
economy issues that characterized private transport systems in
many developing countries. The new organization had a sizeable
impact on TM users’ by improving traveling conditions
significantly. In addition, congestion, pollution and traffic
accidents plummeted in TM corridors. However, the type of
transition adopted for the remaining transport corridors not
covered by TM caused unforeseen negative spillovers, as a
consequence of slow scrapping rates and bus and routes relocation.
Consequently, although the CBA for the first phase of the
corridors covered by TM is positive, once these additional
measures are taken into consideration, the net effect is negative
due primarily to increases in travel time for passengers using
the traditional transport system. In order to minimize the
negative spillovers during the full implementation of TM,
expected to last until 2015, integration of the traditional and
new systems should be carried on, and strict regulation of the
traditional public transport system should be crafted.
Keywords: urban transport
JEL: R41
Date: 2004-08-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000145:000581&r=all
156. DOES VIOLENCE REDUCE INVESTMENT IN EDUCATION?: A
THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL APPROACH
Felipe Barrera
Ana Maria Ibanez
The paper develops a dynamic theoretical model and presents
empirical evidence about the relationship between violence and
education investments. Although some papers have estimated
regressions to link educational outcomes and violence, no formal
models have been developed yet. A theoretical model is crucial to
understand the different channels through which violence affects
education. Three channels are identified. First, violence can
affect directly the utility of households and, therefore, it may
modify the consumption of education. Second, extreme violence can
destroy physical capital and create uncertainty, which will lower
investment and production. In the long run, destruction of
physical assets and drop in investment impact the income of
households who in turn must reduce consumption and cutback
investments in education. Third, violence can modify the rates of
return of education, and therefore, can change the investment on
education. We find violence indeed exerts a toll on education.
School enrollment is less in Colombian municipalities with
homicide rates above the national median. Moreover, the
likelihood of school enrollment decreases as homicide rates rise
for all group ages. The impact of homicide rates is larger than
transferences from the national government to the local
government earmarked for investment in education and health.
Keywords: Theory of Education
JEL: I21
Date: 2004-07-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000145:000582&r=all
157. UNA APROXIMACION A LOS EFECTOS DEL ALCA SOBRE LAS
IMPORTACIONES DE COLOMBIA
Ricardo Rocha
Ricardo Perilla
Una estimacion de los efectos que se derivarian del ALCA con
una eventual eliminacion del AEC sobre los precios y cantidades
de las importaciones de Venezuela y los Estados Unidos. Empleando
la econometria de panel para el periodo 1994-2002 se estimaron
modelos competencia a la Bertrand y Cournot para las
importaciones de ambos paises, en funcion de los respectivos
aranceles, tasas de cambio, costos de produccion y la demanda de
Colombia. Los resultados permiten estimar un efecto neto positivo
sobre el valor de las importaciones provenientes de ambos paises
por US 159 millones anuales, es decir, un 3,3%, debido al efecto
conjunto de repunte en el valor de las importaciones de los EEUU
y al menor valor de las compras a Venezuela. La mayor parte de
los efectos corresponden a ajustes en cantidades y se concentran
en las importaciones destinadas a la industria como materias
primas y bienes de capital, como resultado de las elasticidades
estimadas y de la estructura de comercio.
Keywords: ALCA
JEL: F13
Date: 2004-06-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000145:000584&r=all
158. THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF LABOR REFORM IN COLOMBIA
Juan Carlos Echeverry
Mauricio Santamaria
This paper analyzes the entire reformist effort that spans from
1990 until 2002, emphasizing the second wave that ended with the
issuing of a new labor code in 2002. A successful reform has to
surpass a set of “deals” along the streamline of design,
consensus building within civil society, submission to Congress
and parliamentary debate, before it gets approved. The paper
presents the story of two failed attempts for producing these
“deals” within the government, along with labor unions and
private sector firm confederations, before the 2002 labor reform
was finally enacted. It shows what economic and social
considerations created the need for reform, describes the actual
policy changes implemented and evaluates their impact. The paper
delves deep into the political aspects of the reform effort.
Public officials of two governments pursued different lines of
reform, discussion strategies and mechanisms for creating
consensus, before the initiative gained momentum and circumvented
key obstacles. The text of the 2002 reform proposal changed
little during five years, but received important additions in the
floor of Congress, with little technical support. Finally, an
interesting dispute between lawyers and economists is presented
regarding the role of the labor code for job creation and its
function in the economic cycle. In the case of this reform,
economists believed more on the computed elasticities, while
lawyers believed more in the stability of established rules and
in the limited role of norms. Economists should pay more
attention to the workings of the political economy of reform and
to the “life cycle of government”, both of them critical for
success.
Keywords: labor reform
JEL: J23
Date: 2004-04-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000145:000587&r=all
159. DEL ROMANTICISMO AL REALISMO SOCIAL: LECCIONES DE LA
DECADA DEL 90
Alejandro Gaviria
Este ensayo hace un analisis critico de las principales
reformas sociales implantadas en la decada anterior. Se hace
enfasis en el contraste entre las intenciones iniciales de los
reformadores y los efectos finales de las reformas. En muchos
casos, las restricciones politicas e institucionales impidieron
que se cumplieran los objetivos propuestos. Y en algunos casos,
los resultados fueron opuestos a los esperados. En todos los
casos, las buenas intenciones se vieron frustradas por los malos
incentivos.
Keywords: politica social
JEL: I18
Date: 2004-04-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000145:000617&r=all
160. VISA USA: FORTUNAS Y EXTRAVIOS DE LOS EMIGRANTES
COLOMBIANOS EN LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS
Alejandro Gaviria
Este articulo intenta responder tres preguntas sobre los
emigrantes colombianos en los Estados Unidos, a saber: ?Cuantos
son y cuando llegaron?, ?cual es su perfil socioeconomico?, y
?que tan grandes son las diferencias salariales respecto a los
residentes en Colombia con similar educacion y experiencia? Los
resultados muestran que la poblacion emigrante esta por debajo
del millon de habitantes (a pesar de la aceleracion reciente de
los flujos migratorios), que los emigrantes tienen al menos tres
anos mas de educacion que los residentes en Colombia, y que
sus ingresos laborales son al menos dos veces mayores. Los
resultados muestran, de otro lado, que la emigracion hacia
Estados Unidos es una alternativa viable para hogares de clase
media en dificultades, no para hogares pobres en busca de mejores
oportunidades.
Keywords: migracion
JEL: J24
Date: 2004-03-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000145:000623&r=all
161. DINAMICA Y DETERMINANTES DE LA VIOLENCIA DURNATE LA
VIOLENCIA EN COLOMBIA
Mario Chacon
Durante el periodo comprendido entre 1946 y 1966, Colombia fue
el escenario de un agudo conflicto interno conocido como la
Violencia, en el cual se estima que mas de 190,000 personas
perdieron la vida. La evolucion de la Violencia nos plantea
diversas preguntas ya que su aparicion e intensidad es diferente
para cada region del pais, indicando que esta no siguio un
patron uniforme. Este trabajo busca encontrar las
caracteristicas municipales que determinaron la presencia e
intensidad de la violencia, durante los periodos de Violencia
“temprana” (1946-1950) y de Violencia “tardia” (1958-
1963). Para este objetivo, se utilizaron tecnicas de
econometria espacial. La evidencia sugiere que en ambos periodos,
la violencia presenta difusion espacial y persistencia en el
tiempo. Las variables politicas incluidas en el modelo, nos
sugieren una logica de la violencia, en la cual esta se usa
como herramienta de intimidacion, principalmente en municipios
con polarizacion politica. Los resultados muestran como
factores locales, previos a la Violencia, ya sean economicos,
geograficos, espaciales, o politicos, influenciaron la
violencia y su intensidad durante el periodo.
Keywords: Violencia
JEL: R12
Date: 2004-03-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000145:000624&r=all
162. INSTITUTIONS AS THE FUNDAMENTAL CAUSE OF LONG-RUN GROWTH
Daron Acemoglu
Simon Johnson
James Robinson
This paper develops the empirical and theoretical case that
differences in economic institutions are the fundamental cause of
differences in economic development. We first document the
empirical importance of institutions by focusing on two “quasi-
natural experiments” in history, the division of Korea into two
parts with very different economic institutions and the
colonization of much of the world by European powers starting in
the fifteenth century. We then develop the basic outline of a
framework for thinking about why economic institutions differ
across countries. Economic institutions determine the incentives
of and the constraints on economic actors, and shape economic
outcomes. As such, they are social decisions, chosen for their
consequences. Because different groups and individuals typically
benefit from different economic institutions, there is generally
a conflict over these social choices, ultimately resolved in
favor of groups with greater political power. The distribution of
political power in society is in turn determined by political
institutions and the distribution of resources. Political
institutions allocate de jure political power, while groups with
greater economic might typically possess greater de facto
political power. We therefore view the appropriate theoretical
framework as a dynamic one with political institutions and the
distribution of resources as the state variables. These variables
themselves change over time because prevailing economic
institutions affect the distribution of resources, and because
groups with de facto political power today strive to change
political institutions in order to increase their de jure
political power in the future. Economic institutions encouraging
economic growth emerge when political institutions allocate power
to groups with interests in broad-based property rights
enforcement, when they create effective constraints on power-
holders, and when there are relatively few rents to be captured
by power holders. We illustrate the assumptions, the workings and
the implications of this framework using a number of historical
examples.
Keywords: development
JEL: N11
Date: 2004-09-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000145:000684&r=all
163. REGULACIONES Y NORMAS EN LO PUBLICO Y LO COLECTIVO:
EXPLORACIONES DESDE EL LABORATORIO ECONOMICO
Juan Camilo Cardenas
La internalizacion de las externalidades de grupo derivadas del
dilema entre el interes individual y el interes social
requieren el diseno de instituciones a traves del mercado, el
estado o de formas auto-gobernadas que generen en los agentes un
cambio en los incentivos pecuniarios o no materiales que los
lleven a tomar decisiones que sean socialmente deseables. El
enfoque economico convencional en el analisis de la ejecucion
o aplicacion de las leyes (enforcement) se basa principalmente
en los trabajos de Becker en donde se propone que quienes optan
por incumplir las leyes estan percibiendo un beneficio mas alto
que el costo esperado de la regulacion por parte del estado, es
decir la sancion para el infractor multiplicada por la
probabilidad de deteccion. A traves de una serie de
experimentos economicos se explora esta hipotesis para el caso
de un problema tipico de bienes publicos o de extraccion de
recursos en donde se presenta una externalidad de grupo y una
regulacion que es parcialmente monitoreada y sancionada. Los
resultados sugieren que la respuesta estrategica de los
individuos a los diferentes costos esperados de la regulacion
confirma solo parcialmente la hipotesis en la medida en que las
diferencias son menos que proporcionales a los valores estimados
del costo esperado de la regulacion para los agentes. Mas aun,
cuando se comparan estos resultados con replicas exactas de
estos experimentos aplicadas en campo a comunidades rurales en
donde se vive cotidianamente este problema, las diferencias en
las decisiones individuales entre los costos esperados
practicamente desaparecen. Se propone al final que en
conjuncion con los costos materiales del incumplimiento, los
individuos incorporan elementos adicionales en su proceso
cognitivo que son consistentes con hallazgos de la economia
experimental, y la economia del comportamiento.
Keywords: economia experimental
JEL: C92
Date: 2004-09-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000145:000734&r=all
164. DETERMINANTES, EFECTOS Y COSTOS DE LA VIOLENCIA
INTRAFAMILIAR EN COLOMBIA
Rocio Ribero
Fabio Sanchez
En este articulo se analizan los determinantes de la violencia
domestica en Colombia y se mide su impacto sobre diversas
variables de la mujer tales como el ingreso, la participacion
laboral, y en variables del hogar en particular el nivel de salud,
la educacion y la nutricion de los ninos. La evidencia
sugiere que entre los determinantes mas relevantes de la
violencia intrafamiliar se encuentran el haber sido victima o
testigo de violencia en el hogar materno, y estar casada o unida
a un hombre que consume alcohol de manera frecuente y elevada. A
traves de la tecnica del estimador de emparejamiento o
“matching estimator”, se estiman la magnitud de los efectos
de las diferentes formas de violencia intrafamiliar. Se encuentra
que si en un hogar existe maltrato severo a menores o agresiones
severas contra la mujer, los ingresos laborales mensuales de la
mujer son inferiores en cerca de 300.000 pesos (-70% menos
aproximadamente) de los que serian si no hubiera violencia
intrafamiliar (VIF). Asi mismo la VIF determina mayor
probabilidad de desempleo para la mujer, asi como peores
indicadores de salud para la mujer y los ninos frente a hogares
que no experimentan VIF. Con la magnitud estimada de los impactos
se procede a cuantificar los costos anuales de la VIF. Los
resultados indican que estos alcanzan cerca del 4% del PIB.
Keywords: Violencia intrafamiliar
JEL: J1
Date: 2004-11-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000145:000908&r=all
165. LEY 789 DE 2002: ?FUNCIONO O NO?
Alejandro Gaviria
Este trabajo presenta una evaluacion de la Ley 789 de 2002,
conocida como la reforma laboral. La evaluacion no solo tiene
en cuenta la evidencia indirecta aportada por las encuestas de
hogares, sino tambien la evidencia directa recopilada por una
encuesta empresarial disenada expresamente para medir los
efectos de la reforma. El analisis muestra que (i) la reforma
tuvo un efecto notable sobre la contratacion de aprendices y
sobre el subempleo por insuficiencia de horas (especialmente en
el sector servicios), (ii) los efectos sobre la generacion de
empleo y sobre la formalizacion del empleo fueron inferiores a
lo esperado, y (iii) los programas de apoyo al desempleado y de
estimulo a la generacion de empleo no han funcionado.
Keywords: reforma laboral
JEL: J21
Date: 2004-11-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000145:000909&r=all
166. COLOCAR MENOS CARTERA E INVERTIR EN TES: ?UNA DECISION
OPTIMA?. ANALISIS DE LAS INVERSIONES EN
Romel Rodriguez Hernandez
El tamano de los activos en las hojas de balance de los Bancos
Colombianos ha sufrido una importante recomposicion durante los
ultimos anos. El deterioro en la calidad de la cartera durante
la crisis economica de finales de los Noventa junto con el
notable incremento en la oferta de TES (Titulos de Tesoreria)
en el mercado primario, fue aprovechado por los Bancos para
cambiar su estrategia de inversion en procura de mayores
retornos. Este trabajo estudia la estrategia de inversion de los
Bancos Colombianos a partir de la Teoria de Portafolio, basada
en tres pilares fundamentales. Primero, la construccion de
Fronteras Eficientes y su correspondiente analisis de retorno
– riesgo; segundo, el uso de metodos parametricos para
modelar la distribucion estadistica de las perdidas asociadas
con la inversion en cartera o en TES; tercero, la construccion
de modelos econometricos de heterocedasticidad condicional (
GARCH) que estiman la volatilidad de la inversion en TES. Los
resultados obtenidos para el periodo considerado (1995 – 2003)
evidencian un incremento en la perdida esperada por colocacion
de cartera, independientemente del nivel de diversificacion, y
un menor Valor en Riesgo (VAR) en los portafolios de inversion
que incrementan la participacion en TES disminuyendo la de
cartera. Sin embargo, la creciente volatilidad observada en el
Mercado de TES, especialmente los de largo plazo, que son los de
mayor liquidez en el mercado de capitales nacional, ha
contribuido al aumento en el VAR de las inversiones de los bancos,
en particular, si abandona el supuesto de normalidad en la
distribucion de las perdidas y se consideran distribuciones
estadisticas de valor extremo. El aporte de este trabajo es
haber demostrado que la estrategia de inversion aplicada por los
Bancos, enfocada hacia la maximizacion de los retornos y la
minimizacion de riesgos es optima solo si son impuestas
restricciones al porcentaje de los activos que pueden ser
invertidos en Cartera y TES, de acuerdo con el comportamiento
estadistico de los retornos y las perdidas que se infiere de la
base de datos.
Keywords: TES
JEL: C32
Date: 2005-01-15
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000145:000911&r=all
167. Las Remesas en Colombia: costos de transaccion y lavado de
dinero
Ximena Cadena Ordonez
Mauricio Cardenas Santa Maria
Resumen Las remesas que entran a Colombia han aumentado
sustancialmente en los ultimos anos como reflejo del incremento
en el flujo migratorio que vivio el pais a finales de la
decada de los noventa. En 2003 se convirtieron en la segunda
fuente de divisas del pais. Ademas de mejorar el bienestar de
los hogares receptores, pueden ser utilizadas para lavar dinero
proveniente de actividades ilegales. Por ello, Colombia ha
desarrollado una regulacion intensiva en prevenir el lavado de
activos, cuyo costo ha sido asumido por los operadores en el
mercado a traves de la reduccion en la rentabilidad y los
margenes. El control al lavado de activos debe fortalecerse
entre los Cambistas Profesionales, que son numerosos y poco
vigilados. Abstract In line with migration flows, workers
remittances have increased substantially in recent years in
Colombia. Although remittances have improved living standards of
recipient households, the possibility of use as a vehicle for
money laundering is a major risk. Colombia heavily regulates
these transfers, which do not seem to be more costly than in
other Latin American countries due to competition between
intermediaries. Controls on money laundering should focus on
'cambistas profesionales', which are numerous and weakly
regulated and supervised. Keywords: International Migration,
Financial Regulation, Financial Institutions and Services, Market
Structure and Prices.
Keywords: Migracion internacional
JEL: F22
Date: 2004-10-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000147:000810&r=all
168. El modelo gravitacional y el TLC entre Colombia y Estados
Unidos
Mauricio Cardenas Santa Maria
Camilo Garcia Jimeno
El modelo de gravitacional es una conocida herramienta para
predecir los flujos de comercio entre paises. A partir de datos
anuales de comercio entre 178 paises para el periodo 1948-1999,
este trabajo estima que un TLC entre Colombia y Estados Unidos
incrementaria el comercio bilateral en 40%. Sin embargo, el
comercio caeria en 58% de no firmarse el tratado y perderse las
preferencias arancelarias del ATPDEA. Otras estimaciones usan
datos de importaciones de EEUU por sector economico y encuentran
efectos mayores. Ademas, esta base de datos incluye una
medicion de los costos de transporte. La elasticidad de las
importaciones con respecto a esta variable es de -0.5, lo que
implica grandes ganancias de las mejoras en regulacion e
infraestructura. Abstract The gravity model is a well-known tool
in order to predict international trade patterns. Based on annual
trade data for 178 countries between 1948 and 1999, the paper
estimates that a FTA between Colombia and the U.S. would raise
bilateral trade by 40%. However, trade would fall by 58% if no
such agreement is signed, and the unilateral trade preferences
granted under ATPDEA are lifted. Another set of estimations uses
US imports by sector and finds a much larger effect. In addition,
in this database transport costs can be measured. The estimated
elasticity of imports with respect to these costs is -0.5,
implying large gains from improvements in regulation and
infrastructure.
Keywords: Modelo Gravitacional
JEL: F02
Date: 2004-10-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000147:000816&r=all
169. Embarazo y fecundidad adolescente
Felipe Barrera Osorio
Lucas Higuera Jaramillo
Este documento intenta identificar los factores que inciden en
el embarazo y la maternidad adolescente, y sus efectos sobre el
capital humano. En particular se estudia la relacion entre
embarazo y maternidad adolescente y asistencia escolar y oferta
laboral. El centro de analisis son las variables individuales y
del hogar como determinantes de la fecundidad adolescente.
Mediante modelos probabilisticos se encuentra que hay
diferencias en los determinantes entre el embarazo y la
maternidad adolescente, pero que estos, individualmente y en
conjunto, inducen a desercion estudiantil; no se encuentra
evidencia de efectos de la fecundidad adolescente sobre la
participacion laboral. Abstract This paper intends to identify
the determinants of parenthood and pregnancy in teenagers, and
the effect of these on human capital acumulation. More precisely,
the relationship between teenage parenthood/pregnancy and school
enrollment and labor force is analized. The relevant variables as
determinants of teenage parenthood/pregnancy include individual
and household variables. Using binary models we found that the
determinants of teenage parenthood and of teenage pregnancy are
different in between, but teenage parenthood/pregancy effectively
reduce the probability of school enrollment. No evidence is found
of effects of teenage parenthood/pregnancy on labor force.
Keywords: Fecundidad
JEL: J13
Date: 2004-06-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000147:000817&r=all
170. Dynamics and causes of crime in Colombia
Felipe Barrera Osorio
Abstract This paper adds to previous research on the causes of
crime in Colombia by using a new dataset and better econometric
estimations. The paper is a “meta” study on the past
empirical research on crime. Based on microeconomic foundations,
it tests several hypotheses on crime in Colombia. In concrete,
the first finding is that drug crimes are highly correlated with
other crimes. As some theories suggest, drug activities affect
the judiciary system and as a by-product, are correlated with
other crimes. Also, the dynamics of drug trade suggest the use of
criminal activities to enforce their own operations (e.g.
homicides to enforce the law of silence). Second, guerrilla
activity is correlated with several types of crimes, including
drug crimes, homicides, kidnappings and bank robberies;
paramilitary activity is correlated with kidnappings and drug
crimes. The article explores in a systematic way the relationship
between the penal code and crime. In order to do this, an
important effort is done in quantifying the legal code. The paper
finds that the legal codes respond to criminal activity, but that
laws have an impact on only few crime rates, such as kidnappings
and terrorist attacks.
Keywords: Violencia
JEL: A14
Date: 2004-05-14
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000147:000819&r=all
171. Los ciclos ganaderos en Colombia, 1950--2001
Gerson Javier Perez V
El comportamiento ciclico del sector ganadero en Colombia es
uno de los hechos mas evidentes en la economia. En este trabajo
se presenta un modelo que describe el proceso por el cual los
ganaderos toman la decision de destinar al animal para consumo (
sacrificio) o para capitalizacion (crianza), y que lleva al
comportamiento ciclico en el sector. De esta manera se ofrece
una forma alternativa para realizar proyecciones futuras sobre
algunas de las mas importantes variables. El sistema inicial de
ecuaciones permitio expresar el modelo teorico en terminos de
modelos ARMA para el inventario, el sacrifico y la crianza. Los
resultados obtenidos fueron bastante favorables en dos aspectos:
el primero es que los valores estimados de los parametros
aproximan muy de cerca los valores teoricos; en segundo lugar,
las proyecciones realizadas lograron capturar las variaciones
ciclicas de las variables y sus magnitudes, de tal manera que es
posible utilizarlos para realizar pronosticos confiables de las
variable
Keywords: Ciclo ganadero,
JEL: C52
Date: 2004-06-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:000477&r=all
172. Politicas economicas regionales: cuatro estudios de caso
Gerson Javier Perez V
Peter Rowland
Este documento presenta el estudio de cuatro casos con
politicas regionales bien desarrolladas, que incluyen a la
Union Europea, Espana, Italia y Brasil. Estos fueron
seleccionados debido a su relevancia para el analisis de
problemas regionales en Colombia. En todos ellos, las politicas
regionales han tenido resultados relativamente limitados, pues
las disparidades regionales no han disminuido en forma
significativa. No obstante, podria afirmarse que dichas
disparidades hubieran sido mayores en ausencia de tales
iniciativas de politica. Por lo tanto, los resultados ponen en
evidencia las dificultades de desarrollar politicas regionales
exitosas.
Keywords: Economia regional,
JEL: R11
Date: 2004-07-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:000608&r=all
173. La Mojana: riqueza natural y potencial economico
Maria M. Aguilera Diaz
La Mojana es una subregion ubicada en la parte norte de
Colombia, caracterizada por ser una zona de humedales productivos,
perteneciente a la Depresion Momposina, con la funcion
ambiental de regular los cauces de los rios Magdalena, Cauca y
San Jorge, amortiguar las inundaciones y facilitar la
decantacion y acumulacion de sus sedimentos. La dinamica de
sus aguas y la biodiversidad de las especies de fauna y flora,
que ahi encuentran su habitat, proveen seguridad alimenticia y
generan ingresos a sus pobladores. El objetivo de este estudio es
contribuir al conocimiento de los aspectos economicos,
ambientales, sociales, e identificar el potencial economico que
le permita un desarrollo sostenible. Los resultados del estudio
indican que La Mojana tiene limitantes en el uso de sus tierras
por los riesgos ambientales y la funcion natural que desempena.
Su poblacion presenta altos indices de pobreza y alta
dependencia de la explotacion de los recursos naturales del
suelo y el agua. Sin embargo, posee una oferta ambiental que al
desarrollarla en forma integral y planificada puede potenciar el
desarrollo economico, social y cultural de la region.
Keywords: La Mojana,
JEL: Q10
Date: 2004-10-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:000726&r=all
174. La economia de Cienaga despues del banano
Adolfo Meisel Roca
Desde hace varias decadas, el municipio de Cienaga, Magdalena,
ha vivido la transicion de una economia que se sustento en el
auge de las exportaciones de banano, hacia otra con una base mas
diversificada. En este trabajo se estudia como fue su economia
antes del auge bananero, durante ese auge y como es en la
actualidad. En el analisis de la estructura actual se enfatiza
el tema de las finanzas publicas, ya que de su correcta
orientacion dependera en buena medida que se pueda lograr una
mayor dinamica local y, sobre todo, mejorar el nivel de vida de
sus habitantes. En particular las regalias que recibira en los
proximos anos, por ser puerto carbonero, puede ser la fuente
para financiar dos areas prioritarias para su futuro: la
elevacion del capital humano de sus habitantes por medio de la
educacion formal y el mejoramiento del equipamiento urbano de la
ciudad.
Keywords: Municipio de Cienaga,
JEL: Q10
Date: 2004-11-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:000775&r=all
175. Consideraciones para una politica economica regional en
Colombia
Juan David Baron
Gerson Javier Perez
Este trabajo propone un marco de trabajo para una politica
economica regional en Colombia. Se estudian las caracteristicas
regionales y se muestra que las disparidades regionales son
significativas y persistentes en el tiempo. Por ello, se hace
necesario llevar a cabo una politica economica que promueva el
desarrollo de las regiones mas pobres de pais. Este estudio
aprovecha lecciones de otros casos de politica de economia
regional y propone un marco de trabajo basado en una iniciativa
de politica regional que actualmente se esta aplicando en
Brasil.
Keywords: Economia Regional,
JEL: R23
Date: 2004-11-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:000780&r=all
176. Descentralizacion fiscal y disparidades en el ingreso
regional: la experiencia colombiana
Jaime Bonet
Utilizando la experiencia colombiana, este trabajo presenta una
nueva evidencia empirica acerca de la relacion entre la
descentralizacion fiscal y la disparidad de los ingresos
regionales. el estudio ha logrado algunos avances en el analisis
empirico de esta relacion. Primero se introduce una
aproximacion de datos panel con el fin de detectar la dinamica
de ajuste involucrada en una politica de descentralizacion
fiscal. Segundo, el analisis se basa en la experiencia de un
pais y no en el analisis transversal de varios paises, de tal
manera que los efectos de la descentralizacion fiscal son
estimados de forma mas objetiva que en investigaciones
anteriores que exhiben una mayor variacion cultural, historia e
institucional. Finalmente, este trabajo supera otras limitaciones
observadas en estudios anteriores como la ausencia de analisis
de dependencia espacial y la sensibilidad de las conclusiones a
las medidas de descentralizacion fiscal consideradas.
Keywords: Descentralizacion Fiscal,
JEL: H77
Date: 2004-11-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:000783&r=all
177. La economia del departamento de Cordoba: ganaderia y
mineria como sectores claves
Joaquin Viloria De La Hoz
En esta investigacion se indaga sobre que elementos han
obstaculizado el desenvolvimiento economico de Cordoba. Es
tradicion afirmar que el departamento cuenta con suelos de gran
fertilidad, pero en el documento se analiza la calidad de la
tierra no solo en funcion de la capa vegetal, sino tambien en
los niveles de precipitacion y recurso hidrico. Este ultimo
genera sequias e inundaciones, que caracterizan gran parte de la
geografia cordobesa, representando elevados costos en la
geografia cordobesa, que deben pagar los pobladores asentados en
zonas bajas cerca de los rios, los agricultores, ganaderos y el
gobierno. Estos factores climaticos afectan la productividad
agricola del departamento del Cordoba, inferior a la media
nacional. De igual manera, las deficiencias en la educacion y el
manejo inadecuado de las finanzas publicas territoriales
tambien inciden negativamente en es escaso desarrollo
departamental.
Keywords: Economia Regional,
JEL: R10
Date: 2004-11-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:000785&r=all
178. Eficiencia Tecnica Relativa de la ganaderia doble
proposito en la Costa Caribe
Jose Gamarra
Utilizando el analisis de la envolvente de datos (DEA, por sus
siglas en ingles) se realizo una medicion de la eficiencia
tecnica relativa para una muestra de 71 fincas doble proposito
en la Costa Caribe. Si bien son muchos los estudios realizados
con esta metodologia en otros paises, en Colombia no se habian
elaborado estimaciones de este estilo para este sector. La
implementacion de esta metodologia, ademas de la utilizacion
de regresiones con datos censurados, permitio identificar las
practicas asociadas a un uso eficiente de los recursos. Se
encontro un promedio de puntajes de eficiencia de 59.7% para el
modelo orientado a los insumos y 60.03% para el modelo orientado
a los productos. Ademas, se encontro que solo el 8% de las
fincas operan en una escala eficiente. El estudio tambien
concluye que para lograr una mayor eficiencia en las fincas doble
proposito de la Costa Caribe, se debe hacer especial enfasis en
la calidad del pie de cria del hato, asi como tambien en los
criterios para su seleccion y continuo mejoramiento.
Keywords: Ganaderia doble proposito,
JEL: Q12
Date: 2004-12-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:000829&r=all
179. Dimension espacial de la pobreza en Colombia
Gerson Javier Perez
Con base en los indicadores de necesidades basicas
insatisfechas (NBI) y de calidad de vida (ICV), se realiza un
analisis espacial de la pobreza en Colombia. El documento
pretende establecer si existen evidencias acerca de dependencia
espacial en las medidas de la pobreza en los departamentos y
municipios del pais. Esto se realiza a traves del calculo del
estadistico I de Moran a nivel global y local. La metodologia
permite ademas ubicar clusters de pobreza, asi como detectar si
existio algun proceso de difusion de la pobreza. Los
resultados muestran evidencias significativas de dependencia
espacial tanto a nivel departamental como municipal, indicando
que la ubicacion geografica es importante como determinante de
la pobreza en el pais. Es decir, que el hecho de que cada
municipio tenga los vecinos que tiene es determinante fundamental
para explicar la pobreza. Se encontraron clusters y procesos de
difusion en algunos municipios y departamentos. Se destaca que
en la mayoria de los casos los municipios pobres estan rodeados
de otros municipios pobres, y que los municipios ricos estan
rodeados de ricos. Esto podria ser el resultado tanto de
correlaciones en las dotaciones naturales de factores, de
externalidades o una combinacion de ambas.
Keywords: Pobreza,
JEL: R00
Date: 2005-01-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:000861&r=all
180. ?Se comportan igual las tasas de desempleo de las siete
principales ciudades colombianas?
Jose R. Gamarra V.
Partiendo de las tasas de desempleo de las siete principales
ciudades colombianas se calcula un indice de dispersion,
ademas se utiliza la prueba de cointegracion de Johansen para
examinar las diferencias y relaciones de largo plazo de estas
series. A partir del calculo de los indices de dispersion se
encontro un movimiento prociclico del movimiento de las tasas y
su dispersion. Cuando las ciudades estan en la etapa favorable
del ciclo, con bajas tasas de desempleo, las desigualdades
aumentan. Por otro lado, cuando las tasas de desempleo estan en
niveles relativamente bajos, las desigualdades, medidas por los
indices de dispersion, disminuyen. Por ultimo, se evaluo la
cointegracion de las series. Se realizaron seis modelos, una
evaluando la cointegracion de cinco ciudades con el
comportamiento promedio y un ultimo modelo examinando la
cointegracion del grupo de cinco ciudades. En general, se
encontro que cada una de las cinco series estaban cointegradas
con el comportamiento del grupo. Ademas, se encontro la
presencia de tres vectores de cointegracion al considerar el
conjunto de las cinco ciudades.
Keywords: Desempleo,
JEL: J64
Date: 2005-02-28
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:000894&r=all
181. Inequidad espacial en la dotacion educativa regional en
Colombia
Jaime Bonet
Este articulo estudia los cambios en la inequidad de la
dotacion educativa en Colombia entre 1968 y 2000 en terminos de
desigualdades intra e inter regionales. Se introducen recientes
tecnicas analiticas para examinar las consecuencias de los
efectos espaciales en la evolucion de la desigualdad.
Adicionalmente, se analiza la relacion existente entre los
regimenes administrativos intergubernamentales y las inequidades.
Los resultados indican que los efectos espaciales incrementan
las desigualdades en la dotacion educativa entre regiones y al
interior de las mismas. Mientras que la descentralizacion esta
asociada con tasas de crecimiento altas en la dotacion educativa,
las medidas de desigualdad registran una mayor disminucion
durante los periodos de administracion centralizada. Debido a
que actualmente la educacion opera bajo un esquema
descentralizado y a que el malestar social aun persisten en
Colombia, la adopcion de un componente redistributivo y la
incorporacion de una dimension espacial deben ser prioritarias
en la modificacion de las politicas disenadas para reducir las
disparidades en la dotacion educativa regional.
Keywords: inequidad,
JEL: I28
Date: 2005-02-28
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:000906&r=all
182. Entre Cadiz y Cartagena de Indias: La red familiar de los
Amador, del comercio a la lucha por la independencia
americana
Adolfo Meisel Roca
En este trabajo se estudia la actividad comercial del
comerciante gaditano Esteban Baltasar Amador y sus hijos en
Cartagena de Indias en las decadas finales del siglo XVIII y a
comienzos del XIX. La familia Amador Rodriguez y sus allegados,
como los Arrazola y los Pombo, ocuparon una posicion central en
el comercio con Espana y la actividad del Consulado de Cartagena.
El hecho de haber tenido diez hijos que llegaron a una edad
adulta le permitio a Esteban Baltazar Amador establecer una
extensa red familiar con conexiones en Cadiz, La Guaira,
Maracaibo, Santa Fe de Bogota y Guayaquil. Durante la lucha por
la independencia de Cartagena de Indias los hermanos Amador
Rodriguez ocuparon un papel prominente entre las filas patriotas,
habiendo sido participes en la firma del Acta de Declaracion de
Independencia y de la Constitucion, asi como en la defensa de
la ciudad durante el sitio de Morillo. Despues de la
independencia esta familia dejo de tener una posicion economica
y una influencia politica destacada, especialmente despues de
la muerte de Juan de Dios Amador, el mas ilustre de los hijos de
Esteban Baltazar.
Date: 2004-07-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000123:000465&r=all
183. Los estudios sobre historia economica de Colombia a partir
de 1990: Principales tematicas y aportes
Adolfo Meisel Roca
El proposito de este trabajo es hacer un analisis de los
avances en la investigacion acerca de la historia economica de
Colombia a partir de 1990. Para ello se profundizara en seis
areas en las cuales se han producido las contribuciones mas
significativas: la historia monetaria, fiscal y bancaria, la
historia del transporte, la historia de la calidad de vida y la
distribucion del ingreso, los analisis economicos globales y
sectoriales, la historia regional y la historia empresarial.
Date: 2005-03-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000123:000932&r=all
184. HISTORIA DEL BANCO DE LA REPUBLICA EN CARTAGENA, 1923-2005:
Fomento productivo, proyectos culturales y estudios
economicos
Joaquin Viloria De La Hoz
El objetivo del presente trabajo es conocer la incidencia que
tuvieron las actividades del Banco de la Republica en la vida
economica de Cartagena y su area de influencia. La historia del
Banco sintetiza en buena medida la historia economica y
empresarial de Cartagena durante el siglo XX. La independencia y
buena gestion administrativa del Banco de la Republica sirvio
en ocasiones de justificacion para que el Gobierno Nacional y el
Congreso de la Republica le encomendaran nuevas funciones al
Emisor, algunas de escasa relacion con los fines de la banca
central. El Decreto-Ley 444 de 1967 genero un cambio
significativo en la evolucion del Banco de la Republica, con la
creacion del Fondo de Promocion de Exportaciones (Proexpo). A
nivel local, el apoyo financiero del Banco de la Republica y
Proexpo permitio la construccion de importantes obras en
Cartagena, que ayudaron a modernizar la infraestructura
turistica y cultural de la ciudad. Luego de la Constitucion
Politica de 1991, el Banco de la Republica se desvinculo de
las actividades de fomento productivo. A partir de la segunda
mitad de los decada de 1990, la Gerencia General apoyo el
fortalecimiento de las actividades culturales en la Sucursal
Cartagena, asi como la conformacion de un grupo de
investigaciones economicas regionales, el primero de este tipo
dentro del Banco de la Republica.
Keywords: Banco de la Republica,
JEL: N00
Date: 2005-05-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000123:000933&r=all
185. El Turismo en el Eje Cafetero
Alberto Gomez Ramirez
Gonzalo Restrepo Quintero
Pablo Emilio Gonzalez Gomez
La actividad turistica en los departamentos de Caldas, Quindio
y Risaralda, se sustento por muchos anos en eventos como la
Feria de Manizales, fiestas locales de trascendencia nacional,
sitios naturales, donde se destacaron el Nevado del Ruiz y los
Termales de Santa Rosa, y atracciones como el Zoologico
Matecana. Pero solo fue hasta finales de los anos ochenta y
principios de los noventa, que se registro una mayor actividad,
gracias a la respuesta que un grupo de caficultores dio a la
crisis generada en el sector cafetero, al iniciar la explotacion
del turismo rural; esta modalidad estuvo soportada en una red de
alojamientos que incorporaba a las fincas cafeteras y la
infraestructura de servicios basicos existente, a lo que
adicionalmente contribuyo la variedad paisajistica de la
region y su arraigada cultura cafetera. La anterior
circunstancia fue complementada con la vision empresarial de
algunos particulares, que apoyados por distintos estamentos
gubernamentales establecieron los primeros parques tematicos en
el departamento del Quindio, sitios que por sus caracteristicas
se convirtieron en pioneros a nivel nacional, y por consiguiente
en el mayor atractivo de la zona. Como consecuencia de lo
anterior, El Eje Cafetero ha logrado un posicionamiento destacado
en los ultimos anos, a punto de convertirse en el segundo
destino turistico a nivel nacional despues de la Costa
Atlantica, especialmente en epocas de temporada alta. Para
efectos de describir la evolucion de este sector en la region,
en el presente trabajo se hace inicialmente un recuento de
algunas condiciones generales que deben cumplir las zonas
turisticas, enmarcadas en ciertos lineamientos internacionales,
permitiendo identificar los logros que sobre este tema se han
alcanzado en los departamentos analizados. Seguidamente, se
esbozan las estrategias turisticas mas importantes
desarrolladas en la zona, tanto a nivel publico como privado.
Posteriormente, se realiza una lectura de las cifras
estadisticas recopiladas para el estudio, para finalmente emitir
una serie de conclusiones sobre el sector turistico del Eje
Cafetero.
Date: 2004-06-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000124:000606&r=all
186. Finanzas Publicas Territoriales: Nota Metodologica
Finanzas Publicas Medellin
Las estadisticas de Finanzas Publicas son fundamentales para
el analisis fiscal y cumplen una funcion primordial tanto en el
seguimiento y supervision de la actividad economica, como en
las decisiones de politica macroeconomica. Esta nota
metodologica proporciona un marco conceptual y contable que
permite dar cuenta de de como el Banco de la Republica compila,
procesa y reproduce las operaciones que se suceden en las
entidades pertenecientes a los diferentes niveles institucionales
del Sector Publico no Financiero Territorial, tomando para ello
una muestra representativa. Para tal fin, parte de las
ejecuciones presupuestales y estados financieros complementarios
de las diferentes entidades, y se procede a contabilizar los
ingresos, por lo efectivamente recaudado, y los gastos, por los
giros mas los compromisos; atendiendo a las directrices del
Manual de Estadisticas de Finanzas Publicas Revisado del Fondo
Monetario Internacional y las normas presupuestales contempladas
en el Estatuto Organico del Presupuesto Colombiano.
Keywords: Finanzas publicas territoriales,
Date: 2004-08-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000124:000724&r=all
187. La industria en el Eje Cafetero y los Departamentos de
Bolivar, Santander y Tolima 1985 - 2001
Alberto Gomez Ramirez
Gonzalo Restrepo Quintero
Pablo Emilio Gonzalez Gomez
Fernando A. Chalarca Gonzalez
Entre 1985 y finales de siglo el sector industrial en Colombia
observo una participacion cercana al 15.0% del Producto Interno
Bruto -PIB-. En este periodo, el sector fue uno de los mayores
generadores de empleo aunque con una tendencia descendente a lo
largo de la serie. Para el caso de los departamentos del Eje
Cafetero, integrado por Caldas, Quindio y Risaralda, ademas de
Bolivar, Santander y Tolima, analizados en este documento, el
comportamiento fue similar al nacional, puesto que en Bolivar,
Santander y Risaralda los aportes al PIB de cada region se
acercaron a tasas del 20%, 16% y 15%, respectivamente. Por su
parte, en Caldas, Tolima y Quindio se registro una menor
participacion, en su orden del 13%, 9% y 5% aproximadamente,
debido al mayor peso relativo del sector agricola. La estructura
industrial de Colombia no ha presentado cambios significativos
durante los ultimos anos, puesto que la produccion bruta ha
estado basada en el consumo no durable y los bienes intermedios,
los cuales representaron en conjunto un poco mas del 60% del
total. En cambio, en los departamentos considerados se
registraron modificaciones importantes, como es el caso de Caldas
donde los bienes de capital ganaron cerca de cuatro puntos
porcentuales; en Santander y Bolivar el grupo de derivados del
petroleo paso a ser el principal componente al finalizar el
periodo; en Tolima los bienes intermedios aumentaron su
participacion en 16.3%; en el Quindio no se registraron
variaciones, al estar supeditada la produccion a los bienes de
consumo durable y no durable en mas del 90% en el promedio de
todos los periodos. La evolucion de la produccion industrial
de Colombia en estos 16 anos presento un crecimiento promedio
importante en los periodos 1985-1990 y 1990-1995 del 5.5% y 7.2%
en su orden, mientras que en el lapso 1995-2000 senalo un
aumento promedio del 1.1%, como efecto de la crisis por la que
atraveso el pais en los anos de 1998 y 1999. El balance para
los seis departamentos fue destacado aun en el periodo 1995-2000,
con excepcion de Caldas y Risaralda, que en este periodo solo
aumentaron 2.4% y 1.1%, en su orden.
Date: 2004-08-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000124:000787&r=all
188. El turismo como alternativa de desarrollo para
Villavicencio y el Departamento del Meta
Hernando Gonzalez Bottia
Actualmente el Meta se ha venido constituyendo como uno de los
departamentos con mas dinamismo de Colombia. Su desarrollo
economico tiene como base economica los sectores agricola,
ganadero, minero, agroindustria, comercio y servicios. Dentro de
este ultimo, han comenzado a desarrollarse nuevos frentes de
trabajo y diversificacion productiva, como es el turismo, en sus
modalidades de agroturismo y ecoturismo, dadas las
caracteristicas propias que posee esta region, basado en la
importancia que ha tomado el departamento con la construccion de
la nueva via al llano por su cercania a la capital del pais.
En este campo, el desarrollo del sector turismo resulta de
trascendental importancia para la economia del departamento, si
se tienen en cuenta algunos elementos estructurales de la
actividad y los desarrollos coyunturales en materia de desarrollo
en infraestructura vial y hotelera fundamentalmente. Sobre la
importancia del sector basta resaltar su dinamico papel como
agente multiplicador de otras actividades economicas
complementarias. Los desarrollos viales, en los que se destaca la
construccion y modernizacion de la carretera Villavicencio –
Bogota, asi como el crecimiento de condominios habitacionales y
turisticos en las areas rurales del departamento por parte de
inversionistas privados y de algunas Cajas de Compensacion
Familiar de Bogota, y la constitucion y adaptacion de fincas
para el desarrollo del agroturismo y ecoturismo, proyectan al
departamento del Meta como un destino turistico apetecido por
sus factores de novedad, cercania y clima, entre otros.
Keywords: Turismo,
Date: 2004-09-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000124:000792&r=all
189. ?Por que el Valle siempre esta en rojo?
Julio Esbobar
Jose Vicente Romero Chamorro
Historicamente el departamento del Valle del Cauca ha
presentado un deficit permanente en su balanza comercial. Sin
embargo, este resultado es mas una consecuencia de la estructura
productiva del departamento que del hecho de estar consumiendo
por encima de su capacidad productiva. La configuracion
industrial del Valle hace que este sea un importador neto de
bienes intermedios, mientras que los saldos comerciales de bienes
de consumo no duradero son positivos. Para demostrar esta
hipotesis se generaron las series de comercio exterior de
acuerdo a la clasificacion CUODE con el fin de observar la
configuracion del comercio regional segun origen y destino
economico. Igualmente se realizan pruebas de cointegracion y
causalidad entre el PIB y el deficit comercial del Valle del
Cauca, para observar si efectivamente el deficit comercial es
una consecuencia de la estructura productiva departamental y por
lo tanto del PIB regional. Finalmente, se exponen algunos
planteamientos sobre los retos comerciales que tiene el
departamento del Valle, tales como el deterioro economico de
Venezuela, la reestructuracion productiva y el desarrollo de las
exportaciones no tradicionales.
Keywords: Balanza comercial,
Date: 2004-05-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000124:000795&r=all
190. Analisis del nuevo acuerdo de capitales de Basilea (BIS-II)
PYME-risk, country-risk y operational-risk
Mariano Gonzalez
trabajo analiza el Nuevo Acuerdo de Capitales del Banco
Internacional de Pagos de Basilea, conocido como BIS-II, en lo
relativo al riesgo de credito con Pymes, riesgo pais y riesgo
operacional. Estudia los conceptos, clasificaciones y metodos de
estimacion propuesto por la norma, asi como las ventajas e
inconvenientes de cada una de las opciones. Presenta ademas,
para cada uno de los tres riesgos estudiados, una propuesta de
rating basada en el estudio de muestras diferentes para cada caso,
Pymes espanolas, informacion sobre paises suministrada por el
Banco Mundial y entidades financieras espanolas. Finalmente,
recoge un modelo econometrico que cumple las exigencias de BIS-
II para modelos avanzados en los respectivos riesgos estudiados,
y que permite incluir tanto efectos aleatorios como correlacion,
espacial y temporal. Todo ello se acompana con una abundante y
actualizada bibliografia sobre los temas tratados.
Keywords: Basel-II, Credit risk, Country risk, Operational risk,
rating, Dynamic Ordered probit, Simulated Maximum
Likelihood.
JEL: C15 C23 C25 C61 E22 F34 G21 G33 H
Date: 2004-07-29
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000136:000498&r=all
191. Las opciones reales: ?hacia un nuevo paradigma en
valuacion?
Guillermo Lopez Dumrauf
Muchos gerentes no estan satisfechos con las reglas
convencionales para la evaluacion de proyectos. A veces,
incorporan el juicio personal para realizar consideraciones
estrategicas. • Ellos arguyen que la tecnica DCF no reconoce
el valor de la flexibilidad gerencial • En lugar de DCF,
proponen utilizar tecnicas como Montecarlo o DTA (decision tree
analysis) para reconocer la posibilidad de diferentes decisiones
operativas para futuros eventos y de esta forma captar el valor
de la flexibilidad. Las opciones representan el derecho (pero no
la obligacion) de llevar a cabo una accion (pagando una prima,
llamada precio de ejercicio) durante un periodo de tiempo,
pagando un precio determinado para un activo especificado.
Keywords: Opciones reales, valor de la felxibilidad
JEL: G31
Date: 2004-07-29
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000136:000499&r=all
192. Estructura temporal de las tasas de interes: curva cupon
cero
Ramiro Chacon
El desarrollo de los mercados de capitales, y en especial el de
deuda publica, en nuestra economia, que inicia peraciones a
mediados de la decada del 90, al iniciar la captacion de
recursos por parte del Estado en buena proporcion, e
intercambiar la deuda de externa a interna, hace necesario
implementar medidas especiales para manejar, desarrollar y
controlar el mercado, al igual que proteger a los inversionistas.
Es por esta razon, en especial, que los organismos ncargados de
vigilar y desarrollar el mercado, ha reglamentado su
organizacion y establece por medio de resoluciones emitidas por
las autoridades competentes la necesidad de crear y estructurar
mecanismos que permitan proteger los inversores y dictar reglas
claras para el buen funcionamiento del mercado. En este documento
pretendemos mostrar la evolucion de las metodologias, y su
aplicacion al mercado colombiano para la estructuracion de las
tasas de interes y en especial en lo referente a la
construccion de la CURVA CUPON CERO, para los portafolios en el
mercado. La construccion de los modelos utilizados y su
desarrollo son ampliamente conocidos por los expertos en la
materia y no son del alcance de este documento.
Keywords: Curva cupon cero, deuda publica
Date: 2004-07-29
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000136:000716&r=all
193. Medicion de Indicadores Betas del Capital Propio a Traves
de Informacion Contable
Edinson Caicedo
En Colombia se han realizado diferentes trabajos para tratar de
medir la relacion rentabilidad riesgo con el proposito de
estimar el costo del capital propio de la inversion ( Mora (1996)
Burbano(1997), Herrara y Mora (1998), Superintendencia de
Valores (1995, 1996 y 1997)); sin embargo, el problema de medir
dicha relacion en el pais, se agrava cuando por las
caracteristicas de un mercado emergente como el colombiano, la
estabilidad de la politica economica del pais, puede incidir
en los precios de las acciones generando problemas de volatilidad
que hacen que cada vez se busquen tecnicas que contribuyan a
calcular con mejor precision la relacion rentabilidad riesgo de
companias colombianas. En Colombia es muy poca la
investigacion que sobre el tema se ha publicado (Mora(1996),
Burbano (1997), Herrera y Mora(1998)). El proposito de este
documento es contribuir a subsanar este deficit de informacion
y en este sentido tratara de resolver las siguientes preguntas:
como han sido las relaciones riesgo rentabilidad en el mercado
accionario colombiano en el periodo 1984 - 1994 ?, que
dificultad presenta la edicion de los diferentes indicadores de
riesgo sugeridos por la teoria financiera y que indicadores
parecerian ser utiles para el periodo 1984-1994?, cual es la
relacion entre algunos indicadores del mercado de capitales y
algunos indicadores contables para la medicion de la relacion
riesgo-rendimiento en Colombia? Para responder las anteriores
preguntas, en este estudio partio de dos hipotesis: 1) que los
inversionistas en acciones en Colombia son aversos al riesgo y
que ellos toman decisiones basados en el valor esperado y la
varianza (Markowitz (1959)) de los rendimientos de sus acciones y
que por lo tanto existe una relacion positiva entre en riesgo y
el rendimiento de la inversion en el mercado accionario
colombiano; por esta razon el modelo de equilibrio de los
activos financieros (CAPM) de Sharpe (1964, 1970)2 es apropiado
para medir dicha relacion durante el periodo 1984 – 1994 ; 2)
que para las empresas inscritas en las Bolsas de Valores del
Pais durante 1984-1994, existio una correlacion entre las
medidas de riesgo alculadas con la informacion de precios de
acciones y las medidas de riesgo obtenidas con la informacion
contable.
Keywords: Rentabilidad capital propio
Date: 2004-07-29
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000136:000717&r=all
194. ?Se ha desarrollado el mercado secundario de acciones
colombiano durante el periodo 1988-2002?
Humberto Bernal Castro
Byron Ortega Gaitan
Este trabajo busca analizar el desarrollo del mercado secundario
de acciones para Colombia desde 1988 hasta 2002. Para ello se
toman cuatro variables: tamano, liquidez, concentracion e
integracion internacional. Esta investigacion complementa
trabajos anteriores sobre el mercado de acciones, como el de
Demirguc-Kunt y Levine (1995), a nivel internacional, y el de
Arbelaez, Zuluaga y Guerra (2002) entre otros, a nivel nacional.
De igual forma, aporta la importancia de cada uno de los
indicadores para medir las variables y amplia el periodo de
analisis.
Keywords: Mercado bursatil
JEL: E44
Date: 2004-06-15
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000139:000597&r=all
195. Valoracion de primas de reaseguro para enfermedades
catastroficas utilizando el modelo de Black-Scholes
Liliana Chicaiza
Las primas de reaseguro para enfermedades catastroficas en el
sistema de salud colombiano han sido tradicionalmente estimadas a
partir de metodos actuariales. Este articulo presenta la
equivalencia entre las opciones call europeas y el funcionamiento
del reaseguro en Colombia y concluye que la cobertura
proporcionada por el reaseguro de enfermedades de alto costo se
puede ser replicar a traves de la adquisicion de opciones. Se
utiliza el modelo de Black-Scholes para hacer la valoracion
utilizando informacion de una de las firmas que operan el sector
obteniendose una prima que se encuentra dentro del rango
establecido a traves del metodo actuarial.
Keywords: Black-Scholes
JEL: D43
Date: 2005-02-15
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000139:000925&r=all
196. Movilidad social en el asentamiento subnormal de Ranchos
del Inat 2004
Rosaura Arrieta
Aura Garcia
Elsa Doria
En este documento se cuantifico la movilidad social educativa
en el asentamiento subnormal de Ranchos del Inat, entre padres e
hijos, por dos metodos. Primero se determinaron las
probabilidades que tienen los hijos de superar la educacion de
sus padres, a partir del nivel educativo alcanzado por ellos.
Segundo se construyeron matrices de transicion por medio de un
modelo probit ordenado con un nivel de confianza del 95%. Una vez
establecida esta matriz se empleo la metodologia de Shorrocks
para calcular el indice de movilidad social intergeneracional
educativa. Finalmente, para correlacionar los niveles
educacionales con la ocupacion tanto de padres como de hijos, se
utilizo la metodologia de analisis multivariado con graficas
de asociacion. Los resultados muestran que en esta comunidad
existe una alta movilidad social educativa (0,7675), como la
movilidad se presenta en los niveles mas bajos de educacion,
esto no significa que las posibilidades de los hijos de salir de
la pobreza sean altas. Se encontro que existe una correlacion
entre los niveles educativos mas bajos con ocupaciones poco
productivas, lo que permite concluir que la comunidad de Ranchos
del Inat se encuentra inmersa en la trampa de la pobreza.
Keywords: movilidad intergeneracional
JEL: I29
Date: 2005-03-10
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000139:000926&r=all
197. Evolucion de la productividad multifactorial, ciclos y
comportamiento de la actividad economica en Cundinamarca
Alvaro Hernando Chavez Castro
Se ofrece una estimacion y analisis de los determinantes de la
productividad total de los factores para la economia de
Cundinamarca a nivel agregado y para los sectores agricola e
industrial, durante el periodo 1960-2000. Los resultados
empiricos revelan un comportamiento prociclico de la
productividad y un pobre desempeno de la misma durante el
periodo de apertura economica. La estimacion econometrica de
los determinantes de la productividad evidencia que la
infraestructura se combina con los factores privados bajo el
supuesto de rendimientos constantes a escala y que la
aceleracion de la inflacion ha tenido un efecto negativo sobre
el desempeno de la misma durante el periodo de analisis. El
analisis de los ciclos economicos para esta region permite
concluir que las reformas de tipo estructural implementadas en la
epoca de apertura suscitaron un aumento en la amplitud de los
ciclos en todos los niveles. Antes de 1996, Cundinamarca tenia
ciclos que fluctuaban entre seis y siete anos, durante los
cuales tres o cuatro anos fueron de recesion y tres o cuatro
anos de auge.
Keywords: Cundinamarca
JEL: C13
Date: 2005-05-03
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000139:000969&r=all
198. Pobreza: Una Propuesta de Analisis Sistemico
Alberto Alvarado Acevedo
Alejandro Vivas Benites
Los Autores Abordan el tema de la Pobreza, desde el punto de
vista de la Sociologia y la Economia, en dos partes: En la
primera, hacen una revision de las teorias sobre "Pobreza" que
les permite aproximarse al estado del arte en los ambitos
nacional e internacional.
En la segunda parte formulan
una propuesta de analisis sistemico para establecer causas de
la pobreza y para proponer vias de solucion. La vision global
del fenomeno de la pobreza implica que su solucion sea
igualmente global -esto es, que involucra a todos los actores y
grupos de la sociedad-. Plantean que en Sociedades como la
Colombianano solamente existen grupos grandes de pobres, sino que
EL CONJUNTO DE LA SOCIEDAD ES POBRE (atrasado), incluyendo en
este conjunto a los estratos socioeconomicos medios y tambien a
la poblacion mas rica. Es el sistema social, economico,
politico y cultural el generador de POBREZA. Establecen que la
POBREZA DE LA SOCIEDAD ES MULTIDIMENSIONAL. Resultado de esta
Pobreza es una sociedad que vive en conmocion y con una
gobernabilidad insuficiente y un estado desarticulado que tendra
que reestructurarse. En otros terminos, se obtiene una sociedad
pobre toda ella. Es la pobreza humana de toda la sociedad, no
solo la pobreza economica. El trabajo Finaliza planteando cuatro
RETOS y las acciones correspondientes para lograr la solucion
global de la pobreza: 1. Reforma del Estado. 2. Mejoramiento
sustancial de la Administracion Publica. 3. Desarrollo de la
cultura dinamica. 4. Creacion de un modelo integral de
Desarrollo Humano
Keywords: Pobreza
JEL: A14
Date: 2004-04-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000143:000702&r=all
199. POBREZA Y VIOLECIA EN COLOMBIA: AGENDA DE DIAGNOSTICOS Y
SOLUCIONES
Alejandro Vivas
?Podemos plantear problemas que permitan despejar soluciones
concretas a realidades como pobreza y desigualdad; violencias;
desempleo; narcotrafico; clientelismo politico; corrupcion e
impunidad? Para lograrlo, en el planteamiento de los problemas
deben aparecer, por una parte, los actores sociales involucrados
y los objetivos sobre variables de interes para ellos y, por
otra parte, las restricciones efectivas y las fortalezas que
tienen los actores sobre dichas variables de interes.
Imprescindiblemente, los planteamientos tambien deben recoger
las acciones de la sociedad internacional, que afectan a Colombia
positivamente en unos casos, negativamente en otros.
El
diagnostico plantea la operacion de cinco procesos
interactuantes de Bloqueos en la sociedad, cuya capacidad esta
referida al numero de personas que involucran y a sus dotaciones
iniciales de riqueza y poder. Los Bloqueos hacen que la economia
opere en condiciones de ineficiencia tecnica, empresarial y
social y crezca a tasas bajas y que al tiempo haya niveles altos
de desigualdad en la distribucion de la riqueza.
Se
definen tres reformas basicas, dirigidas al sistema economico,
al sistema educativo y al sistema de resolucion de conflictos
economicos, y dos ejes que proporcionan el entorno necesario
para las tres reformas: uno de re-institucionalizacion del pais
y otro de “mundializacion”.
Keywords: Violencia
JEL: A13
Date: 2004-04-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000143:000719&r=all
200. CAPITAL SOCIAL Y CALIDAD DE VIDA
Alberto Alvarado Acevedo
Alejandro Vivas Benitez
La formacion de Capital social es un factor clave para el
desarrollo de programas y proyectos dirigidos a la superacion de
la pobreza. La investigacion hace explicitos los factores
asociados a la generacion de capital social en un proyecto de
desarrollo llevado a cabo en un barrio pobre de la ciudad de
Bogota, al tiempo que mide el aporte tanto global como de cada
uno de sus componentes a la Calidad de Vida de la poblacion
afiliada y no afiliada al Proyecto.
Por otra parte,
investigacion ofrece resultados importantes para ser utilizados
en otras experiencias similares, al tiempo que orienta sobre la
formulacion de politicas e incentivos institucionales para
promover proyectos de desarrollo semejantes y sugerir estrategias
para incorporar este tipo de experiencias en programas y
proyectos tendientes a aliviar la pobreza en las poblaciones
economicamente menos favorecidas.
Keywords: Pobreza
JEL: A13
Date: 2004-10-11
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000144:000704&r=all
201. ISH: Hacia una Medida de la Satisfaccion de los Hogares
desde el Punto de Vista de la Oferta de Trabajo
Darwin Marcelo
Juan Miguel Villa
El estudio de las preferencias es uno de los temas menos
tratados por la econometria aplicada. En el presente articulo
se pretende realizar una aproximacion translogaritimica de las
preferencias por medio de la construccion de un Indice de Satisfaccion de los Hogares (ISH)
con base al modulo de condiciones del hogar de la
Encuesta de calidad de Vida realizada por el DANE en abril de
2003.
El ISH es utilizado para observar como son las
disposiciones de oferta de trabajo de los hogares desde el punto
de vista de la teoria neoclasica. Se discriminan los hogares
segun estrato socioeconomico en una muestra para la ciudad de
Bogota. Al final se puede concluir que los hogares que tienen
mas disposicion a trabajar son los pertenecientes al estrato
alto. Las causas de lo anterior son estudiadas a fondo realizando
una revision teorica y una justificacion segun los datos de
la mencionada encuesta.
Keywords: preferencias
JEL: C21
Date: 2004-10-10
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000144:000718&r=all
202. Una aproximacion empirica a la relacion entre las tasas
de interes de los TES de tasa fija y el tipo de cambio en
Colombia (2001-2004)
Alvaro Andres Camaro Suarez
Arnoldo Casas Henao
Edgar Ricardo Jimenez Mendez
El presente trabajo tiene como finalidad, analizar la evolucion
de las relaciones entre las tasas de interes del mercado de
deuda publica colombiano y el tipo de cambio nominal peso dolar,
asi como observar las repercusiones que pudo tener la crisis de
los TES del 2002 en sus relaciones dinamicas. Para tal efecto se
utilizo la serie historica de la tasa representativa del
mercado (TRM) como medida de la evolucion del tipo de cambio y
se construyo un indice representativo del mercado de TES ante
la ausencia de un titulo permanente y representativo de liquidez,
durante el periodo enero del 2001 a mayo del 2004. Se
realizaron contrastes multivariantes de cointegracion y
causalidad sobre modelos VAR y VECM que mostraron como
conclusion principal la existencia de una relacion de largo
plazo entre el tipo de cambio y las tasas de interes de la deuda
publica.
*********************************************************** This
paper studies the relationship between public debt fixed income
interest rates TES Tasa Fija and the exchange rate in Colombia
during the period 2001-2004 using VECM, Granger Causality and
impulse response function techniques. Some of the findings
suggest the existence of a long-term relationship between the
variables and bi-directional Granger Causality. The empirical
results show a negative short-run effect under devaluation in the
TES Tasa Fija market reverted in the long-run due to the
existence of cointegrating vectors. On the other hand, there is
evidence of short-run negative effect in the peso-dollar market
under appreciation of the TES TF reverted in the long run. The
results controvert some traditional market assumptions about the
relationship between this variables and puts some new issues into
the agendas of portfolio and risk managers.
Keywords: Cointegracion,
Date: 2004-10-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000146:000764&r=all
203. Movimientos de la curva de rendimientos de TES tasa fija en
Colombia
Alvaro Andres Camaro Suarez
Arnoldo Casas Henao
Edgar Ricardo Jimenez Mendez
El presente documento tiene como objetivo principal, describir
los diferentes patrones que se encuentran presentes en las
fluctuaciones de la curva de rendimientos de TES tasa fija para
el mercado de deuda publica colombiano, tomando como periodo de
referencia septiembre del 2003 a julio del 2004. Para tal efecto
se emplean las cotizaciones de titulos con vencimiento entre el
2005 y el 2012; mediante un analisis de componentes principales
se concluye que de los tres factores que comunmente se toman
como referencia para explicar los movimientos de las curvas de
rendimientos, el nivel, la pendiente y la curvatura, el primero
de estos es el que mayor porcentaje de la varianza del sistema
abarca con un 87,6%. Por su parte la pendiente explica un 11,48%
de la variabilidad y la curvatura un 0,7%, resultando
despreciables los demas componentes.
*********************************************************** The
paper explores the movements of zero coupon bond yield curve for
TES TF and TES UVR markets in Colombia applying principal
components analysis (PCA). For this purpose yields of 2005-2012
maturities nodes from the Bolsa de Valores de Colombia (BVC) zero
coupon bond yield curve are used. The results exert that 87.6% of
the movements are explained by the level of the curve whereas the
slope and curvature account for 11.48% and 0.7% of total variance.
Date: 2004-10-31
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000146:000765&r=all
204. THE THEORY OF FIRM: APPROACH AND PERSPECTIVES
Alexander Cotte
During the last years a new economic theory to address business
problems has been strengthening. The analysis of the several
different theoretical approaches of the firm indicate that
transaction complexity inside the company and the indetermination
inherent to unbalance in repeated interaction between the firms
cast doubt both about traditional models and their outcomes. The
work specially emphasizes the fact that the companies are
institutions, with a category tantamount to that of the market.
In this regard, the paper looks into the new theory of the firm
and the relation existing between the several different
approaches. Along the theoretical dimension the newest
breakthroughs in this field are analyzed and the link between
game theory, information economy, contract theory, modeling and
the different manner to perform empirical application is
explained.
Keywords: Theory of the Firm,
JEL: L2
Date: 2004-08-14
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000148:000930&r=all
205. Vertical separation of the energy-distribution industry
Machiel Mulder
Victoria Shestalova
Marc Lijesen
The Dutch Minister of Economic Affairs has proposed to replace
the currently implemented structure of legal unbundling of the
energy distribution industry by ownership unbundling. In this
study we analyse costs and benefits of this proposal, compared to
the current situation, and to two alternative options that
strengthen legal unbundling. We identify four mutually-related
categories of benefits: better performance of networks, more
efficient regulation, improved effectiveness of competition, and
benefits of privatisation; and three categories of costs: one-off
transaction costs, loss of economies of scope and the risk of
less investment in generation. The analysis highlights that the
benefits depend on the future development in small-scale
generation and on allocation of the management of transmission
networks. Mainly because of the uncertainty about the future role
of small-scale generation and the uncertainty about the magnitude
of the one-off transaction costs related to cross-border leases,
the net welfare effect of ownership unbundling at the
distribution level is ambiguous. We identify an alternative route
for achieving some of the benefits considered.
Keywords: network industries, electricity market, industrial
organisation, unbundling, regulation
JEL: L51 Q40 Q48
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:docmnt:84&r=all
206. Competitive environments and protective behaviour
Borm,Peter
Estevez-Fernandez,Arantza
Fiestras-Janeiro,M. Gloria (Tilburg University, Center for
Economic Research)
The class of two-person competition games is introduced and
analyzed. For any game in this class the set of Nash equilibria
is convex, equilibrium strategies are exchangeable, and all Nash
equilibria lead to the same payoff vector. Competition games are
compared to other competitive environments such as unilaterally
competitive games and rivalry games. Moreover, protective
behaviour within competitive environments is analyzed. For matrix
games it is known that protective strategies pro?les exactly
correspond to proper equilibria. It is shown that this result can
be extended to the class of unilaterally competitive games.
JEL: C72
Date: 2005
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:kubcen:200550&r=all
207. Growth with perfect capital movements in CES: US Debt
Dynamics and model estimation
Ziesemer,Thomas (MERIT)
We derive the central differential equation of the neoclassical
growth model for the case of a CES (constant elasticity of
substitution) production function with perfect capital movement
in terms of the debt/GDP ratio and estimate it in several ways
for the United States and in a later step the whole model. Debt
data are derived from the accumulation of differences between
investment and we show that then valuation effects play a minor
role. The result is that the US debt/GDP ratio follows the
pattern of a stable differential equation, which will lead to a
long-run debtor position. The debt/GDP ratio will approach a
value between 50% and 60% (depending on the specification used)
unless a structural break increases the world interest rates or,
similarly, US spreads reduce the US demand for foreign debt. A
value of 50% will be achieved around 2040. We also find short-run
deviations from this long-run path, which are characterized by
non-sustainable explosive debt growth. These phases are
characterized by high interest rates and followed by devaluations
of the dollar. Our simple method allows detecting such phases
early on. The estimation of the whole model yields an elasticity
of substitution for capital and labour of .155 with
autocorrelation correction (and 1/3 without), a growth rate of
labour-augmenting technical change of 1.65% (1.5%) and a
corresponding initial level of labour productivity as of 1959 of
about 350 (320).
Keywords: international economics and trade ;
Date: 2005
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:umamer:2005012&r=all
208. Socially Efficient Managerial Dishonesty
Besancenot, Damien (University of Paris 2 and LEM (
Laboratoire d'economie mathematique))
Vranceanu, Radu (ESSEC Business School)
As a reaction to the corporate scandals of the early 2000s, the
US Administration dramatically tightened sanctions against
managers who disclose misleading financial information. This
paper argues that such a reform might come with some unpleasant
macroeconomic effects. The model is cast as a game between the
manager of a publicly listed company and the supplier of an
essential input, under asymmetric information about the type of
the firm. The analysis focuses on the Hybrid Bayesian Equilibrium
where at least some managers choose to communicate a false
information about the true type of the firm. We show that by
dissuading "virtuous lies", whereby a manager strives to win time
for a financially distressed company, a tougher sanction brings
about a higher frequency of default.
Keywords: Financial distress; Disclosure; Honesty; Corporate
regulation; Hybrid Bayesian Equilibrium
JEL: D82 G33 G38
Date: 2005-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:essewp:dr-05005&r=all
209. La prima de riesgo del mercado (market risk premium)
Fernandez, Pablo (IESE Business School)
En este documento se resalta que el termino "prima de riesgo de
mercado" (market risk premium) se utiliza para definir tres
conceptos distintos: a) la rentabilidad incremental que un
inversor exige a las acciones por encima de la renta fija sin
riesgo (prima de riesgo del mercado, required market risk premium
o market risk premium en sentido estricto); b) la diferencia
entre la rentabilidad historica de la bolsa (de un indice
bursatil) y la rentabilidad historica de la renta fija (
rentabilidad diferencial o historical market risk premium), y c)
el valor esperado de la diferencia entre la rentabilidad futura
de la bolsa y la rentabilidad futura de la renta fija (
expectativa de la rentabilidad diferencial o expected market risk
premium). Muchos autores y muchos profesionales de las finanzas
suponen que esta expectativa es igual a la rentabilidad
diferencial y a la prima de riesgo del mercado. Posteriormente se
analizan los metodos propuestos por la literatura financiera
para medirlo y se analiza la rentabilidad diferencial historica
de Espana y Estados Unidos. La conclusion principal del
articulo es que es imposible determinar la prima de riesgo "del
mercado", porque tal numero no existe debido a las heterogeneas
expectativas de los inversores.
Keywords: prima de riesgo de mercado; prima de riesgo de mercado
historica; prima de riesgo esperada;
JEL: G12 G31 G32
Date: 2005-03-10
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:iesewp:d-0585&r=all
210. Ethical aspects of e-commerce: data subjects and content
Sison, Alejo J. (University of Navarra)
Fontrodona, Joan (IESE Business School)
This paper reflects on the ethical challenges posed by Internet
commerce, with special emphasis on those involving the content
and the users of the information. The paper discusses the main
ethical issues in e-commerce, including security, privacy,
identity and nonrefutability of transactions. It proposes
measures which both governments and the private sector could
adopt to address those issues on different levels. Finally, the
paper reflects on the creation of value by leveraging trust and
proposes two universal principles to be upheld in Internet
commerce: online-offline consistency and technological neutrality.
Keywords: Security; privacy; identity; nonrefutability; e-
commerce ethics;
Date: 2005-03-20
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:iesewp:d-0586&r=all
211. Rentabilidad y creacion de valor para los accionistas de
las empresas espanolas y del Ibex 35. 1992-2004
Fernandez, Pablo (IESE Business School)
Villanueva, Alvaro (IESE Business School)
En este trabajo se analiza la evolucion del IBEX y de las 75
empresas espanolas que cotizaron en bolsa (en el mercado
continuo) desde diciembre de 1992 hasta diciembre de 2004. Los
datos de 2004 se presentan en los Anexos. Las definiciones que se
utilizan se toman del libro "Valoracion de Empresas", y son: 1)
capitalizacion: valor de todas las acciones de la empresa; 2)
aumento del valor para los accionistas; 3) rentabilidad para los
accionistas; 4) la rentabilidad exigida a las acciones, y 5)
creacion de valor para los accionistas.
Keywords: Valor mercado de la empresa; valor anadido para los
accionistas; rentabilidad del accionista; rentabilidad
requerida recursos propios;
JEL: G12 G31 M21
Date: 2005-03-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:iesewp:d-0587&r=all
212. M&AS performance in the European financial industry
Campa, Jose M. (IESE Business School)
Hernando, Ignacio (Banco de Espana)
This paper looks at the performance record of M&As that took
place in the European Union financial industry in the period 1998-
2002. First, the paper reports evidence on shareholder returns
from mergers. Merger announcements brought positive excess
returns to the shareholders of the target company around the date
of the announcement, with a slight positive excess return in the
3-month period prior to announcement. Returns to shareholders of
the acquiring firms were essentially zero around announcement.
One year after the announcement, excess returns were not
significantly different from zero for either targets or acquirers.
The paper also provides evidence on changes in operating
performance for the subsample of mergers involving banks. M&As
usually involved targets with lower-than-average operating
performance for their sector. The transactions resulted in
significant improvements in the target banks' performance,
beginning on average two years after the transaction was
completed. Return on equity of the target companies increased by
an average of 7%, and the same firms also experienced efficiency
improvements.
Keywords: mergers and acquisitions; financial industry;
Date: 2005-04-10
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:iesewp:d-0588&r=all
213. The Survival of New Ventures in Dynamic versus Static
Markets
Andrew Burke
Holger Gorg
Aoife Hanley
The paper uses a unique dataset comprise almost the population
of 179,306 new ventures who enter the UK market in 1998. The
central hypothesis is that the survival function of new ventures
has a different specification in dynamic compared to static
markets. Estimation of a hazard function supports this hypothesis.
In dynamic markets the survival of new ventures is positively
related to industry concentration and negatively related to
industry growth. The opposite is found to be true for static
markets. The results shed new insights into the competitive
dynamics of new ventures, optimal strategies for firm survival
and also highlight some important effects for competition policy.
Keywords: new firms, start-ups, survival, turbulence, dynamic
markets
JEL: L11 M13
Date: 2005-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esi:egpdis:2005-12&r=all
214. The Impact of Intellectual Property Rights on International
Self-Employed Rates
Andrew Burke
Stuart Fraser
The importance of IPR regimes for large firm innovation is well
documented but less is known about their impact on typically less
innovative self-employed entrepreneurship. The paper estimates
the net effect of the various elements that comprise an IPR
regime including the political system, the laws, conventions and
institutions as well as a general familiarity with and respect
for IPR related products. Cumulatively, the analysis indicates
that a well developed IPR regime raises self-employment rates
significantly; by as much as 31% among males and 13% among
females. Since the self-employed sector is possibly the only
segment of the enterprise base where IPRs may be expected (and
frequently assumed) to have a negative effect the research
finding of a positive effect provides a useful contribution to
our empirical understanding of the welfare effects of IPRs on the
entrepreneurial economy more widely. The research also indicates
that the formulation of effective enterprise policy which
attempts to stimulate the less innovative self-employed sector of
the entrepreneurial economy- particularly in developing countries
may need to look beyond the usual focus on industrial policy
and consider wider political economy IPR determinants of self-
employment activity.
Keywords: self-employment, intellectual property rights,
imitation
JEL: L2 O33 O34 L2
Date: 2005-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esi:egpdis:2005-13&r=all
215. Nascent entrepreneurship and the level of economic
development
Sander Wennekers
Andre van Stel
Roy Thurik
Paul Reynolds
Based upon two strands of literature, this paper hypothesizes a
U-shaped relationship between a country's rate of entrepreneurial
dynamics and its level of economic development. This would imply
a different scope for entrepreneurship policy across subsequent
stages of development. Regressing GEM's 2002 data for nascent
entrepreneurship in 36 countries on the level of economic
development as measured either by per capita income or by an
index for innovative capacity, we find support for a U-shaped
relationship. Testing our results against several control
variables, evidence is again found for this relationship with
economic development, in addition to significant effects of the
business ownership rate (+), social security expenditure (-),
aggregate taxes (+) and population growth (+). The results
suggest that a 'natural rate' of nascent entrepreneurship is to
some extent governed by 'laws' related to the level of economic
development. For the most advanced nations, improving incentive
structures for business start-ups and promoting the commercial
exploitation of scientific findings offer the most promising
approach for public policy. Developing nations, however, may be
better off pursuing the exploitation of scale economies,
fostering foreign direct investment and promoting management
education.
Keywords: Nascent entrepreneurship, economic development
JEL: J23 L16 M13 O11
Date: 2005-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esi:egpdis:2005-14&r=all
216. Pass-Through of Exchange Rate Changes and Macroeconomic
Shocks to Domestic Inflation in East Asian Countries
Takatoshi Ito
Yuri N. Sasaki
Kiyotaka Sato
We examine the pass-through effects of exchange rate changes on
the domestic prices among the East Asian countries using the
conventional pass-through equation and a VAR analysis. First,
dynamics of pass-through from the exchange rate to import prices
and consumer prices is analyzed using the conventional model of
pass-through based on the micro-foundations of the exporter's
pricing behavior. Both the short-run and long-run elasticities of
the exchange rate pass-through are estimated. Second, a vector
autoregression (VAR) technique is applied to the pass-through
analysis. A Choleski decomposition is used to identify structural
shocks and to examine the pass-through of each shock to domestic
price inflation by the impulse response function and variance
decomposition analyses. Both the conventional analysis and VAR
analysis show that while the degree of exchange rate pass-through
to import prices is quite high in the crisis-hit countries, the
pass-through to CPI is generally low, with a notable exception of
Indonesia. The VAR analysis shows that the size of the pass-
through of monetary shocks is even larger in Indonesia. Thus, it
was Indonesia's accommodative monetary policy as well as the high
degree of the CPI responsiveness to exchange rates that
contributed to high domestic price inflation, resulting in the
loss of its export competitiveness, even when the currency
depreciated sharply in nominal terms in 1997-98.
Date: 2005-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:05020&r=all
217. Robust Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection
Cedric Perret-Gentil (Union Bancaire Privee)
Maria-Pia Victoria-Feser (HEC,University of Geneva)
This paper investigates model risk issues in the context of mean-
variance portfolio selection. We analytically and numerically
show that, under model misspecification, the use of statistically
robust estimates instead of the widely used classical sample mean
and covariance is highly beneficial for the stability properties
of the mean-variance optimal portfolios. Moreover, we perform
simulations leading to the conclusion that, under classical
estimation, model risk bias dominates estimation risk bias.
Finally, we suggest a diagnostic tool to warn the analyst of the
presence of extreme returns that have an abnormally large
influence on the optimization results.
Keywords: Mean-variance e .cient frontier; Outliers; Model risk;
Robust es-timation
JEL: C13 C51 G11
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fam:rpseri:rp140&r=all
218. Understanding Default Risk Through Nonparametric Intensity
Estimation
Fabien Couderc (University of Geneva and FAME)
This paper investigates instantaneous probabilities of default
implied by rating and default events. We propose and apply an
alternative measurement approach to standard cohort and
homogenous hazard estimators. Our estimator is a smooth
nonparametric estimator of intensities, free of bias and
unambiguously more accurate. It also avoids the Markovian
framework and takes care of censoring. Using Standard & Poor’s
ratings database we then show that intensities vary both with
respect to calendar time and ageing time. We deeper investigate
the behaviour of through-the-cycle default probabilities, update
and complement knowledge on documented non Markovian patterns.
Results do not support associated timeliness problems but
indicate a low reactivity of ratings in terms of magnitude.
Because of their target horizon, they indeed integrate the mean
reverting feature of default intensities.
Keywords: default intensity; hazard estimation; censored
duration; non Markovian framework; through-the-cycle
ratings
JEL: C14 C41 G20 G33
Date: 2005-03
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fam:rpseri:rp141&r=all
219. Times-To-Default:Life Cycle, Global and Industry Cycle
Impact
Fabien Couderc (University of Geneva & FAME)
Olivier Renault (Warwick Business School,UK)
This paper studies times-to-default of individual firms across
risk classes. Using Standard & Poor’s ratings database we
investigate common drivers of default probabilities and address
two shortcomings of many papers in the credit literature. First,
we identify relevant determinants of default intensities using
business cycle and credit market proxies in addition to financial
markets indicators, and reveal the time-span of their impacts. We
show that misspecifications of financial based factor models are
largely corrected by non financial information. Second, we show
that past economic conditions are of prime importance in
explaining probability changes: current shocks and long term
trends jointly determine default probabilities. Finally, we
exhibit industry contagion indicators which might be helpful to
capture leading and persistency patterns of the default cycle.
Keywords: censored durations; proportional hazard; business
cycle; credit cycle; default determinants; default
prediction
JEL: C14 C41 G20 G33
Date: 2005-03
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fam:rpseri:rp142&r=all
220. Was ist und was braucht ein bedeutender Finanzplatz?
Reinhard H. Schmidt
Michael Grote
In this paper, we first discuss the notion of „important
financial centres“ and the socio-economic and political
conditions which need to be fulfilled for such a centre to exist.
We then address the issue of the so-called “end of geography”
which has attracted a lot of attention recently. Under this
suggestive title some authors have recently advances the
proposition that specific locations lose their role as economic
centres and are more and more replaced by so-called virtual
centres. We do not suscribe to this view since, as we argue in
our paper, we do not agree that proximity has lost much of its
importance in the financial business. However, the provocative
proposition rightly directs attention to the really important
question of how competition plays out in this area. We therefore
analyse which kind of competition is relevant in the case of
financial centres and how it affects the position of Frankfurt in
the international hierarchy of financial centres. Our proposition
is that “horizontal competition” such as that between
Frankfurt and Paris is not really relevant, and much less
relevant than “vertical competition” between Frankfurt and
London as the main centre in Europe on the one hand, and
Frankfurt and different local subcentres in Germany on the other.
That is, Frankfurt must fear to lose business to London and/or to
the We conclude with a set of observations on how the role of
Frankfurt as a financial centre can be strengthened.
JEL: G15 R11
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fra:franaf:150&r=all
221. Der Handel von Kreditrisiken: Eine neue Dimension des
Kapitalmarktes
Jan Pieter Krahnen
This paper makes an attempt to present the economics of credit
securitisation in a non-technical way, starting from the
description and the analysis of a typical securitisation
transaction. The paper sketches a theoretical explanation for why
tranching, or nonproportional risk sharing, which is at the heart
of securitisation transactions, may allow commercial banks to
maximize their shareholder value. However, the analysis makes
also clear that the conditions under which credit securitisation
enhances welfare, are fairly restrictive, and require not only an
active role of the banking supervisory authorities, but also a
price tag on the implicit insurance currently provided by the
lender of last resort.
JEL: D82 G21 D74
Date: 2005-02
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fra:franaf:152&r=all
222. Multinationals, intra-firm trade and FDI: A simple model
Theresa Carpenter (IUHEI, The Graduate Institute of
International Studies, Geneva)
This paper models trade and FDI in a world consisting of two
symmetric countries. Using a monopolistic competition model of
international trade which includes positive trade costs and
endogenous multinational firms, we introduce an intermediate good
and allow firms to fragment production internationally. The
result is that under certain conditions, identical countries
engage in both intra-industry FDI and intra-industry, intra-firm
trade. This result provides a theoretical explanation for a well-
observed but little explained phenomenon in the overlap between
the theory of international trade and the theory of multinational
enterprises. Examination of welfare demonstrates that firms make
location choices that happen to maximise consumer welfare.
Keywords: Multinationals; FDI; Intra-firm trade
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heiwp01-2005&r=all
223. Foreign Direct Investment, Absorptive Capacity and Growth
in the Arab World
Signe Krogstrup (IUHEI, The Graduate Institute of
International Studies, Geneva)
Linda Matar (UN-ESCWA, Beirut)
Arab countries have been performing very poorly in attracting
FDI inflows relative to other developing countries since the
early 1990s. Arab countries might hence be missing out on growth
and development, if FDI is associated with positive externalities.
The recent empirical literature on FDI and growth shows, however,
that the latter is not always the case, and that FDI is more
likely to have positive externalities in countries with a certain
level of absorptive capacity for FDI. This paper looks at FDI and
growth through absorptive capacity in the Arab world, given the
available data on four different aspects of absorptive capacity:
the technology gap, the level of workforce education, financial
development and institutional quality. The results turn out to be
highly sensitive to the specific measure of absorptive capacity
used, but one conclusion is unambiguous. It is unlikely that the
average Arab country currently stands to gain from FDI. As a
consequence, costly financial incentives to attract more FDI
might hence be wasteful, if not welfare reducing in Arab
countries.
Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment; Growth; Regional
Integration; Middle East; Arab Countries
Date: 2005-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heiwp02-2005&r=all
224. Does the Home Market Effect Arise in a Three-Country Model?
Jens Sudekum
It is uncertain whether the fundamental “home market effect”
HME) generalizes from a two-country model to a more realistic
setting with multiple countries. We present a three-country
version of the seminal model by Krugman (1980) and analyse under
which circumstances the HME is present once third country effects
are taken into account. We show that both expenditure shifts and
exogenous enlargements among foreign countries can rule out the
HME.
Keywords: New trade theory, home market effect, hub effect
JEL: F12 F14 R12
Date: 2005-05-09
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:cegedp:42&r=all
225. Land use mix and daily mobility. The case of Bordeaux (In
French)
Guillaume POUYANNE (IERSO, IFReDE-GRES)
The question of the urban form-daily mobility interaction was
recently renewed. The model of the Compact City aims at
increasing densities to decrease the use of the automobile.
However, the density-mobility interaction is questioned in the
polycentric city : on one’s hand, suburban employment centers
produce original kinds of travel, such as cross-commuting or
multi-prupose travelling ; on the other hand, they facilitate co-
location of jobs and housing. That’s why the reflexion on the
urban form-mobility interaction goes through the quantitative
aspects of urban form (density) to qualitative ones : the
diversity of land use. The idea is that land use mix brings the
origin and the destination of the trips closer. In this paper, we
make a distinction between two types of diversity : the
functional one (i.e. the jobs-housing balance) and the economic
one. Both may have an impact on daily mobility. We apply this
question to the case of the metropolitan area of Bordeaux. In a
first step, we test a general urban form model : we notice a
significant impact of the degree of diversity on travel behaviour.
Thus we are led to question about the influence of the type of
diversity on travel patterns. We comment these results thanks to
the location behaviour of the firms according to their activity.
Keywords: Urban form, travel patterns, functional diversity,
economic specialization
JEL: R12 R14 R41
Date: 2005
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grs:wpegrs:2005-08&r=all
226. Proximities, industries and territories (In French)
Jean-Pierre GILLY (LEREPS-GRES)
Yannick LUNG (E3i, IFReDE-GRES)
The paper compares the research agendas of two different
approaches of a meso-analysis which could combine industrial and
spatial dynamics: the economics of proximity approach on one side,
the regulation theory on the other side. Their specificities and
divergences are identified in the first part, considering the
parallel trajectories of the two French research groups
developing these approaches during the last years, “Dynamiques
de proximite” and “Regulation-Secteur-Territoire”
respectively. The second part discusses their possible
convergence.
Keywords: Industry, meso-analysis, post fordism, proximity,
regulation theory, spatial dynamics
JEL: B52 D21 L10 R11 R30
Date: 2005
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grs:wpegrs:2005-09&r=all
227. Optimal Paternalism: Sin Taxes and Health Subsidies
Aronsson, Thomas (Department of Economics, Umea University)
Thunstrom, Linda (Department of Economics, Umea University)
The starting point for this paper is the potential self-control
problem underlying the consumption of unhealthy food. The purpose
is to analyze public policies, which are designed to correct for
the welfare loss associated with such behavior. Contrary to
previous studies, our analysis suggests that subsidies on wealth
and health capital are part of the policy package, which can be
used to implement a socially optimal resource allocation.
Keywords: Health; Quasi-Hyperbolic Discounting; Taxes; Subsidies
JEL: D61 D62 H21 I18
Date: 2005-05-11
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:umnees:0662&r=all
228. Madonna and the Music Miracle The genesis and evolution of
a globally competitive cluster
Braunerhjelm, Pontus (CESIS - Centre of Excellence for
Science and Innovation Studies, Royal Institute of
Technology)
The issue addressed in this paper concerns the emergence and
dynamics of a regional cluster in the music industry. Whereas
mainstream economic geography models explain agglomeration of
existing economic activities, an evolutionary approach is
necessary to understand the emergence of genuinely new clusters.
Based on an empirical analysis of the major Swedish music cluster,
it is shown how cognitive features, the institutional and
organizational framework, as well as economic incentives, were
interlinked in the process of cluster emergence. A multitude of
forces thus coincided in time and space to support the emerging
music cluster. A latent knowledge base, language skill and path-
dependence all played a significant role. It is also shown how
mobile and densely located agents, displaying a high degree of
connectivity, together with external impulses through immigrants,
contributed to the dynamics and re-vitalization of the Stockholm
music cluster.
Keywords: genesis; evolution; dynamics; heterogeneity
JEL: D83 L22 Z11
Date: 2005-05-09
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0029&r=all
229. The trade-off between agglomeration forces and relative
costs: EU versus the “world” Evidence from firm-level
location data 1974-1998
Braunerhjelm, Pontus (CESIS - Centre of Excellence for
Science and Innovation Studies, Royal Institute of
Technology)
Thulin, Per (The Center for Business and Policy Studies,
Stockholm, and Linkoping University)
The theoretical prediction of a trade-off between production
costs and agglomeration economies advanced in recent “new
economic” geography models has – despite its important policy
implications – not been exposed to empirical testing. Based on
a standard model where labor mobility is assumed to differ
between two regions - the “European Union” (EU) and the
“world” - the empirical analysis shows that a ten percent
increase in relative wages decreases entry by MNCs by
approximately nine percent in EU, but only by three percent in
the “world.” Or, put differently, a ten percent increase in
relative wages in EU requires an increase by 26 percent in
agglomeration to keep production levels unaltered. To our
knowledge, this is the first attempt to empirically estimate this
trade-off.
Keywords: FDI; agglomeration; relative costs
JEL: F15 F20 F23
Date: 2005-05-09
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0030&r=all
230. Firm Location, Corporate Structure, R&D Investment,
Innovation and Productivity
Johansson, Borje (CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science
and Innovation Studies, Royal Institute of Technology)
Loof, Hans (CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and
Innovation Studies, Royal Institute of Technology)
Rader Olsson, Amy (CEFIN)
This study elucidates how firm location and corporate structure
influence R&D-intensity, external collaboration on innovation,
return on R&D and economic performance. The study, based on 1,907
firm level observations, essentially compare a functional region
with four other regional areas in Sweden. In this context, the
Stockholm region is assumed as an integrated functional urban
region with innovation-proximity characteristics. The paper
examines systematically the influence of location versus various
firm characteristics. The econometric results suggest the
following: First, a typical Stockholm firm has a significantly
larger likelihood than other firms of being engaged in innovation
activities. Second, among innovative firms, the R&D intensity and
global collaboration on innovation is primarily determined by its
corporate structure, not geographic location. Third, the
embeddedness in regional and national scientific and vertical
innovation systems is relatively more intense outside Stockholm.
Finally, the advantage of being located within Sweden’s most
strongest concentration of R&D spending, universities, human
capital and multinational enterprises with their global networks
is reflected by a superior return on R&D investments and higher
productivity, when controlling for firm size, human capital,
physical capital, R&D-intensity, market orientation and sector
classification.
Keywords: Regional economy; multinational companies; R&D;
innovation; innovation system
JEL: C21 G34 L22 O33
Date: 2005-05-09
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0031&r=all
231. Regional Productivity and Accessibility to Knowledge and
Dense Markets
Karlsson, Charlie (CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science
and Innovation Studies, Royal Institute of Technology)
Pettersson, Lars (Jonkoping International Business School)
Accessibility to knowledge and local service markets can be
assumed to explain regional growth performance. The role of
regional supply of services and educated labour with respect to
regional development are stressed by many researchers. In this
paper we make an empirical analysis using panel data for Swedish
municipalities. The purpose is to analyse the relationship
between regional productivity measures as gross regional product
per square kilometre and accessibility to educated labour. We
also acknowledge the extension of the regional economy in terms
of functionality and access to population as a measure of
accessibility to labour and to purchasing power. We estimate
first a cross-section model by using OLS. Second we employ a
panel data model, using time distance access to population and
the share local labour force with longer higher education as
explanatory variables. In the analysis we compare the results for
Sweden from the different models with other studies in this field.
We find that local externalities for increasing returns are very
important in the Swedish economy. Our estimated models yields a
high level of goodness of fit, and the results indicates that the
elasticity for longer higher education and population density are
around unity in the Swedish economy with respect to performance
of regional gross domestic product per square kilometre
Keywords: Agglomeration; Productivity; Sweden; Spatial; Regional;
accessibility
JEL: D24 J24 O47 R11 R23 R40
Date: 2005-05-09
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0032&r=all
232. The Extent and History of Foreign Direct Investment in Japan
Ralph Paprzycki
Kyoji Fukao
The past few decades have seen a significant rise in foreign
direct investment(FDI) worldwide. While Japanese companies have
actively contributed to this trend, FDI in Japan continues to be
much lower than in other countries. This paper explores the
history of both outward and inward FDI in Japan, looking in
particular at the reasons for the low levels of inward FDI. New
calculations for this paper - based on data from the
Establishment and Enterprise Census - show that foreign firms'
role in the Japanese economy may be substantially larger than the
most frequently cited published statistics suggest. In some
industries (motor vehicles and electrical machinery in particular)
inward FDI penetration, as measured by the share of employment
accounted for by foreign affiliates, in Japan in fact is on par
with the United States. However, a large number of "sanctuaries"
with almost no foreign involvement remain, so that FDI
penetration overall is still very low. While to some extent, this
can be explained by Japan's relatively isolated geographic
location, historical factors play an important role. Throughout
the centuries and until quite recently, Japan's rulers have
viewed foreign involvement in the economy as a threat and
consequently erected various barriers to FDI, which are discussed
in detail.
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hst:hstdps:d05-84&r=all
233. Implications of Product Patents : Lessons from Japan
Reiko Aoki
Tomoko Saiki
Product (material) patents were introduced to Japan in 1976. We
examine data prior to 1976 and years immediately following to
determine the law's effect on domestic pharmaceutical market,
innovation by pharmaceutical firms, and relationship of the
Japanese market to the rest of the world. There is evidence that
the domestic market became more concentrated and quality of
pharmaceutical innovation changed after the introduction. This is
because introduction of product patents is different from simple
strengthening of existing technology protection such as
increasing breadth.
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hst:hstdps:d05-85&r=all
234. Is Academic Science Raising Innovative Productivity? Theory
and Evidence from Firm-Level Data
Lee Branstetter
Reiko Aoki
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hst:hstdps:d05-86&r=all
235. Do Non-Profit Operators Provide Higher Quality of Care?
Evidence from Micro-Level Data for Japan's Long-term Care
Industry
Haruko Noguchi
Satoshi Shimizutani
Along with the introduction of the long-term care insurance
scheme, the Japanese government in 2000 for the first time
allowed for-profit operators to compete head-on with non-profit
operators in the provision of at-home care services. This study
examines quality differentials between the nonprofit and the for-
profit sector in Japan's elderly care industry, concentrating on
home helpers and staff nurses. Taking advantage of a unique and
rich micro-level survey, the study finds that although nonprofit
operators provide higher quality of care, as measured by simple
averages of workers' characteristics, the advantage of nonprofits
disappears once their higher wage is corrected for. This finding
confirms that the seemingly higher quality of care provided by
nonprofit operators is due to the nonprofit wage premium,
resulting from their preferential status which provides non-
distributional constraints and favorable tax treatment.
Keywords: Japanese long-term care insurance, long-term care,
nursing homes, home helpers, staff nurses, nonprofit
wage premium, quality of care, treatment effect approach
JEL: I11
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hst:hstdps:d05-87&r=all
236. Group-lending with sequential financing, joint liability
and social capital
Prabal Roy Chowdhury (Indian Statistical Institute, New
Delhi)
We examine group-lending under sequential financing. In a model
with moral hazard, social capital and endogenous group formation,
we identify conditions such that sequential financing with joint
liability leads to positive assortative matching between
borrowers with and without social capital and, moreover, `bad'
borrowers are partially screened out, thus resolving the moral
hazard problem to some extent. Further, if the later loans are
not too delayed, then under these conditions the expected payoff
of the bank is greater compared to that under joint liability
lending. Positive assortative matching or sequential financing (
specially in the absence of joint liability) are no panacea
though.
Keywords: Group-lending; sequential financing; joint liability;
social capital; assortative matching; endogenous group
formation
JEL: G2 O1 O2
Date: 2004-10
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:isipdp:04-23&r=all
237. Efficiency and distribution in contract farming:The case of
Indian poultry growers
Bharat Ramaswami (Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi)
Pratap Singh Birthal (National Centre for Agricultural
Economics and Policy Research)
P.K. Joshi (International Food Policy Research Institute)
This paper is an empirical analysis of the gains from contract
farming in the case of poultry production in the state of Andhra
Pradesh in India. The paper finds that contract production is
more efficient than noncontract production. The efficiency
surplus is largely appropriated by the processor. Despite this,
contract growers still gain appreciably from contracting in terms
of lower risk and higher expected returns. Improved technology
and production practices as well as the way in which the
processor selects growers is what makes these outcomes possible.
In terms of observed and unobserved characteristics, contract
growers have relatively poor prospects as independent growers.
With contract production, these growers achieve incomes
comparable to that of independent growers
Keywords: Contract Farming, Contracting, Poultry, Vertical
Integration
JEL: L23 L24 Q13
Date: 2005-02
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:isipdp:05-01&r=all
238. Do security deposit rates matter: Evidence from a secondary
market
Susumu Imai (Concordia University)
Kala Krishna (Pennsylvania State University)
Abhiroop Mukhopadhyay (Indian Statistical Institute, New
Delhi)
In the recent past, many economies, attempting to become more
open, have adopted policies fostering a less restrictive trade
regime. In their attempts to become more open, policy makers can,
with the best of intentions, adopt policies that have unforeseen
and often undesirable side effects. In the 1980s, Australia was
in the process of converting quotas to tariffs. In the process
they auctioned off import quota licenses in order to use the
submitted bids to calculate equivalent tariff rates. A security
deposit was charged to prevent frivolous bidding. The collection
of security deposits may be seen as a harmless policy with the
only discernable cost being the opportunity cost of the funds
while they are on deposit. We argue that, at least in the
Australian context, this is not so. Using data from a middleman
in the secondary market for these licenses, we show that the
policy may have led to welfare losses in the secondary market.
Date: 2004-12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:isipdp:05-02&r=all
239. Education and growth in the presence of capital flight
Debajyoti Chakrabarty (University of Sydney)
Areendam Chanda (Louisiana State University)
Chetan Ghate (Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi)
We study the effect of capital controls on the level of
investment in human capital and the resulting growth path of an
economy. The economy consists of two groups of agents based on
the ownership of factors of production. One type of agents -
called workers - own human capital and bequeath education to
their offsprings. The other group of agents - called capitalists -
own and bequeath physical capital. The workers have the
political power to tax capital income. The capitalists, based on
the tax rate imposed by the workers and the capital control
regime in place, decide to invest part or all of their capital
abroad. We characterize the optimal tax behavior of the workers.
We find that higher capital controls are beneficial for
investment in education whenever there is capital flight in a
steady state equilibrium. However, higher capital controls are
shown to have no effect on the tax rate on capital income imposed
by workers: rather, they act as a disincentive for capital flight
by lowering the return from foreign investment. We show that
lowering capital controls can lead to higher growth only when
there is no capital flight in the steady state. Importantly, to
prevent capital flight in the long run, human capital
accumulation must not show decreasing returns with respect to
education and the economy must be sufficiently developed.
Date: 2005-02
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:isipdp:05-03&r=all
240. Does decentralization work? Forest conservation in the
Himalayas
E. Somanathan (Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi)
R. Prabhakar (Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and
Environment)
Bhupendra Singh Mehta (Foundation for Ecological Security)
This paper studies the effect of decentralization of management
and control on forest conservation in the central Himalayas. The
density of forest cover (measured with satellite images and field
surveys) in forests managed by village councils is compared with
that in state-managed forests and in unmanaged village commons.
Geographic proximity and historical and ecological information
are used to identify the effects of the three types of management
regimes. Village council management does no worse, and possibly
better, at conservation than state management and costs an order
of magnitude less per unit area. Relative to unmanaged commons,
village council management raises crown cover in broadleaved
forests (the type of forest that may provide the most benefits to
villagers under the rules) but not in pine forests.
Date: 2005-02
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:isipdp:05-04&r=all
241. Patents and R & D: The tournament effect
Prabal Roy Chowdhury (Indian Statistical Institute, New
Delhi)
We identify a new route through which patent protection may
affect R&D incentives, the tournament effect. It may decrease
R\&D incentives, in which case patent protection may either
adversely affect the level of R&D, or may discourage licensing.
In either case welfare may fall.
Keywords: Patents, R&D incentive, Tournament effect, Licensing
JEL: O31 O34 O38
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:isipdp:05-05&r=all
242. Optimal Choice of Monetary Instruments in an Economy with
Real and Liquidity Shocks
Bhattacharya, Joydeep
Singh, Rajesh
Poole (1970) using a stochastic IS-LM model presented the first
formal treatment of the classic question: how should a monetary
authority decide whether to use the money stock or the interest
rate as the policy instrument? We update the seminal work of
Poole in a microfounded flexible-price general equilibrium model
of money using explicit welfare criteria. Specifically, we study
the optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a
overlapping-generations economy where limited communication and
stochastic relocation creates an endogenous transactions role for
fiat money. We characterize stationary welfare maximizing
monetary and inflation targets for settings in which the economy
is separately hit with i.i.d endowment and liquidity shocks. Our
analysis suggests that the central insight of Poole survives:
when the shocks are real, welfare is higher under money growth
targeting; when the shocks are nominal and not large, welfare is
higher under inflation rate targeting.
JEL: E0
Date: 2005-05-10
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genres:12355&r=all
243. Optimal Wage Taxation when the Choice to Work Depends on
Accumulated Human Capital
Kreider, Brent
This paper studies how optimal wage tax conclusions from the
classic life-cycle model of endogenous human capital accumulation
are affected by relaxing a standard assumption that everyone
works. In the standard model, the optimal wage tax is zero when
wages are nonstochastic regardless of the impact of human capital
on the future wage rate or the wage elasticity of labor hours.
After allowing human capital accumulation to affect the extensive
margin decision to work as well as the intensive number of labor
hours to supply, distortionary wage taxation becomes desirable
even with nonstochastic wages. In the absence of a corrective
policy, young individuals underinvest in human capital from a
social perspective because tax premiums for transfers to
nonworkers are not actuarially adjusted downward for human
capital attainment. To restore proper price signals, wage taxes
should be negatively correlated with age. Results from previous
models hold when the decision to work is treated as exogenous or
premiums for transfers are actuarially tailored to human capital
choices. Calibrating the model using data from the 2000 Current
Population Survey, numerical simulations suggest that even modest
extensive margin employment elasticities can be sufficient to
substantially impact the magnitudes -- and even change the signs -
of optimal wage tax rates on prime-age workers.
JEL: H2 H3 J2
Date: 2005-05-11
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genres:12358&r=all
244. A Structural Analysis of the Correlated Random Coefficient
Wage Regression Model with an Application to the OLS-IV
Puzzle
Christian Belzil (CNRS-GATE, CIRANO, CIREQ and IZA Bonn)
Jorgen Hansen (Concordia University, CEPR, CIRANO, CIREQ
and IZA Bonn)
We estimate a finite mixture dynamic programming model of
schooling decisions in which the log wage regression function is
set within a correlated random coefficient model and we use the
structural estimates to perform counterfactual experiments. We
show that the estimates of the dynamic programming model with a
rich heterogeneity specification, along with simulated
schooling/wage histories, may be used to obtain estimates of the
average treatment effects (ATE), the average treatment effects
for the treated and the untreated (ATT/ATU), the marginal
treatment effect (MTE) and, finally, the local average treatment
effects (LATE). The model is implemented on a panel of white
males taken from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY)
from 1979 until 1994. We find that the average return to
experience upon entering the labor market (0.059) exceeds the
average return to schooling in the population (0.043). The
importance of selectivity based on individual specific returns to
schooling is illustrated by the difference between the average
returns for those who have not attended college (0.0321) and
those who attended college (0.0645). Our estimate of the MTE (0.
0573) lies between the ATU and ATT and exceeds the average return
in the population. Interestingly, the low average wage return is
compatible with the occurrence of very high returns to schooling
in some subpopulation (the highest type specific return is 0.13)
and the simulated IV estimates (around 0.10) are comparable to
those very high estimates often reported in the literature. The
high estimates are explained by the positive correlation between
the returns to schooling and the individual specific reactions.
Moreover, they are not solely attributable to those individuals
who are at the margin, but also to those individuals who would
achieve a higher grade level no matter what. The structural
dynamic programming model with multi-dimensional heterogeneity is
therefore capable of explaining the well known OLS/IV puzzle.
Keywords: random coefficient, returns to schooling, treatment
effects, dynamic programming, dynamic self-selection
JEL: J2 J3
Date: 2005-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1585&r=all
245. Wage Growth and Job Mobility in the U.K. and Germany
Christian Dustmann (University College London and IZA Bonn)
Sonia C. Pereira (University College London and Yale
University)
This paper investigates job mobility and estimates the returns
to tenure and experience in the United Kingdom and Germany. We
show evidence that job mobility is higher in the UK than in
Germany, and that job movers may be negatively selected in
Germany, but not in the UK. Our findings suggest that returns to
experience are substantially higher in the UK. According to our
estimates, ten years of labour market experience are associated
with average wage returns of around 70 percent in the UK and 30
percent in Germany. Separate estimates for different
qualification groups show that in Germany, it is the group of
workers with apprenticeship training that is driving the low
returns to labour market experience, while wages growth due to
labour market experience is similar between the two countries for
the other skill groups. Furthermore, returns to tenure are close
to zero in both countries, while wage growth due to the macro
trend is markedly higher in Germany.
Keywords: returns to seniority, job mobility, asymmetric
information
JEL: J24 J31
Date: 2005-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1586&r=all
246. Privatization Discontent and Its Determinants: Evidence
from Latin America
Jorge Carrera (University of La Plata)
Daniele Checchi (University of Milan and IZA Bonn)
Massimo Florio (University of Milan)
Privatization policy faces increasing popular opposition in
Latin America. We test for the determinants of this discontent.
We use the results of Latinobarometro (2002), a survey of a
representative sample of 18522 individuals in 17 countries as our
dependent variable of perception, and a privatization dataset on
the same countries, including sectoral disaggregation of
divestitures, time profiles, proceeds, and other variables for
each country. We use as well a set of macroeconomic variables as
controls.. Our main finding is that disagreement with
privatization is more likely when the respondent is poor,
privatization was large and quick, involved a high proportion of
public services as water and electricity, the country suffered
adverse macroeconomic shocks, and there is high inequality of
incomes. The more the respondent is educated, the more adverse to
privatization he or she is. We suggest that these results depict
a broadly consistent picture of privatization discontent that
points to distributional issues, probably because of tariff
rebalancing not adequately addressed by policy makers and
regulators, as suggested by earlier empirical papers. Further
research is needed on the relationship between perceptions and
actual welfare changes.
Keywords: privatization, Latin America, distributive impact,
panel survey data, social attitudes
JEL: H32 G14 L33
Date: 2005-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1587&r=all
247. Some Practical Guidance for the Implementation of
Propensity Score Matching
Marco Caliendo (DIW Berlin and IZA Bonn)
Sabine Kopeinig (University of Cologne)
Propensity Score Matching (PSM) has become a popular approach to
estimate causal treatment effects. It is widely applied when
evaluating labour market policies, but empirical examples can be
found in very diverse fields of study. Once the researcher has
decided to use PSM, he is confronted with a lot of questions
regarding its implementation. To begin with, a first decision has
to be made concerning the estimation of the propensity score.
Following that one has to decide which matching algorithm to
choose and determine the region of common support. Subsequently,
the matching quality has to be assessed and treatment effects and
their standard errors have to be estimated. Furthermore,
questions like "what to do if there is choice-based sampling?" or
"when to measure effects?" can be important in empirical studies.
Finally, one might also want to test the sensitivity of estimated
treatment effects with respect to unobserved heterogeneity or
failure of the common support condition. Each implementation step
involves a lot of decisions and different approaches can be
thought of. The aim of this paper is to discuss these
implementation issues and give some guidance to researchers who
want to use PSM for evaluation purposes.
Keywords: propensity score matching, implementation, evaluation,
sensitivity
JEL: C40 H43
Date: 2005-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1588&r=all
248. The Impact of Tax and Transfer Systems on Children in the
European Union
Miles Corak (UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre and IZA Bonn)
Christine Lietz (University of Cambridge)
Holly Sutherland (ISER, University of Essex)
The objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of fiscal
policy on the economic resources available to children, and on
the child poverty rate. A static microsimulation model
specifically designed for the purposes of comparative fiscal
analysis in the European Union, EUROMOD, is used to study the age
incidence of government taxes and transfers in 2001 in 15 EU
countries. Three related questions are addressed. First, what
priorities are currently embodied in government budgets across
age groups, and in particular to what degree do cash transfer and
tax systems benefit children relative to older groups? Second,
what fractions of the needs of children are supported by elements
of the tax and transfer systems directed explicitly to them? And
third, what impact do measures of public resources for children
have on child poverty rates?
Keywords: poverty, children, social policy
JEL: I30 I32 I38
Date: 2005-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1589&r=all
249. Order Aggressiveness and Order Book Dynamics
Anthony D. Hall (School of Finance and Economics, University
of Technology, Sidney)
Nikolaus Hautsch (Institute of Economics, University of
Copenhagen)
In this paper, we study the determinants of order aggressiveness
and traders' order submission strategy in an open limit order
book market. Using order book data from the Australian Stock
Exchange, we model traders' aggressiveness in market trading,
limit order trading as well as in order cancellations on both
sides of the market using a six-dimensional autoregressive
intensity model. The information revealed by the open order book
plays an important role in explaining the degree of order
aggressiveness in the individual processes. Moreover, evidence
for significant dynamic interdependencies between the individual
processes confirms the usefulness of the multivariate setting.
Overall, our empirical results confirm theoretical findings on
limit order book trading and show that a trader's decision of
when and which order to submit is significantly influenced by the
queued volume, the market depth, the inside spread, recent
volatility, as well as recent changes in both the order flow and
the price.
Keywords: order aggressiveness; multivariate intensity; open
limit order book; order book dynamics
JEL: G14 C32 C41
Date: 2004-12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kuiefr:200504&r=all
250. The Impact of Labour Turnover: Theory and Evidence from UK
Micro-Data
Gaia Garino
Christopher Martin
We analyse the impact of labour turnover on profits. We extend
the efficiency wage model of Salop (1979) by separating incumbent
and newly hired workers in the production function. We show that
an exogenous increase in the turnover rate can increase profits,
but only where firms do not choose the wage. This effect of
turnover varies across firms as it depends on turnover costs, the
substitutability of incumbents and new hires and other factors.
We test our model on UK cross-sectional establishment-level data.
We find that the data are consistent with our predictions.
Keywords: Labour Turnover; Turnover Costs; Optimal Turnover
JEL: J21 J23 E3 F4
Date: 2005-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lec:leecon:05/10&r=all
251. Mortgages and Financial Expectations: A Household Level
Analysis
Sarah Brown
Gaia Garino
Karl Taylor
We contribute to the literature on household mortgage demand by
focusing on one particular influence on the decision to acquire
increasing levels of mortgage debt at the household level, namely
the financial expectations of the individuals within the
household. Our theoretical model predicts a positive association
between the quantity of mortgage debt undertaken and optimistic
financial expectations. Our empirical findings based on household
level data provide convincing support for our theoretical priors
in that optimistic financial expectations impact positively on
the level of outstanding mortgage debt.
Keywords: Mortgage Debt; Financial Expectations; Inter-temporal
Consumption; Random Effects; Tobit Estimator
JEL: D18 D84 D91
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lec:leecon:05/9&r=all
252. Demand for Environmental Quality: A Spatial Hedonic Approach
David M. Brasington
Diane Hite
We first estimate the relationship between house prices and
environmental disamenities using spatial statistics, confirming
that nearby point-source pollutants depress house price. We then
calculate implicit prices of environmental quality and related
characteristics from the house price hedonics to estimate a
demand curve for environmental quality, finding a price
elasticity of demand of ?0.12. We find evidence of significant
spatial effects in both the hedonic and demand estimations. We
find that environmental quality and school quality are purchased
together (elasticity =-0.80), environmental quality and house
size are substitutes (elasticity=0.91), and environmental quality
and lot size are not related goods.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsu:lsuwpp:2005-08&r=all
253. Public and Private School Competition: The Spatial
Education Production Function
David M. Brasington
School vouchers may increase the competition public school
districts face. Greater competition may spur public schools to
improve student outcomes, which reliably predict labor market
productivity and earnings. Previous school competition studies do
not use spatial statistics; they fail to incorporate spillovers
and the effect of omitted variables into their education
production functions. Significant spatial effects are found in
all regressions, and spatial statistics improves adjusted R-
squared. There seems to be no consistent association between
private school attendance rates and public school achievement, or
between the number of public school districts in a county and
public school performance. Competitive effects, which seem
plausible in non-spatial regressions, dissipate when spatial
statistics is used. When school inputs appeared statistically
significant in non-spatial regressions, the spatial regressions
generally made the significance disappear. Poverty appeared to
depress reading and writing passage rates, but this effect
disappeared in the spatial models.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsu:lsuwpp:2005-09&r=all
254. Trade Liberalisation, Growth and Poverty in Senegal: a
Dynamic Microsimulation CGE Model Analysis
Nabil Annabi
Fatou Cisse
John Cockburn
Bernard Decaluwe
Much current debate focuses on the role of growth in alleviating
poverty. However, the majority of computable general equilibrium (
CGE) models used in poverty and inequality analysis are static in
nature. The inability of this kind of model to account for growth
accumulation) effects makes them inadequate for long run
analysis of the poverty and inequality impacts of economic
policies. They exclude accumulation effects and do not allow the
study of the transition path of the economy where short run
policy impacts are likely to be different from those of the long
run. To overcome this limitation we use a sequential dynamic CGE
microsimulation model that takes into account accumulation
effects and makes it possible to study poverty and inequality
through time. Changes in poverty are then decomposed into growth
and distribution components in order to examine whether de-
protection and factor accumulation are pro-poor or not. The model
is applied to Senegalese data using a 1996 social accounting
matrix and a 1995 survey of 3278 households. The main findings of
this study are that trade liberalisation induces small increases
in poverty and inequality in the short run as well as
contractions in the initially protected agriculture and
industrial sectors. In the long run, it enhances capital
accumulation, particularly in the service and industrial sectors,
and brings substantial decreases in poverty. However, a
decomposition of poverty changes shows that income distribution
worsens, with greater gains among urban dwellers and the non-poor.
Keywords: Dynamic CGE model, trade liberalisation, poverty,
inequality, Senegal
JEL: D33 D58 E27 F17 I32 O15 O55
Date: 2005
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:lacicr:0512&r=all
255. Trade Reform and Poverty in the Philippines: a Computable
General Equilibrium Microsimulation Analysis
Caesar B. Cororaton
John Cockburn
The paper employs an integrated CGE-microsimulation approach to
analyze the poverty effects of tariff reduction. The results
indicate that the tariff cuts implemented between 1994 and 2000
were generally poverty-reducing, primarily through the
substantial reduction in consumer prices they engendered. However,
the reduction is much greater in the National Capital Region (
NCR), where poverty incidence is already lowest, than in other
areas, especially rural, where poverty incidence is highest.
Tariff cuts lower the cost of local production and bring about
real exchange rate depreciation. Since the non-food manufacturing
sector dominates exports in terms of export share and export
intensity, the general equilibrium effects of tariff reduction is
an expansion of this sector and a contraction in the agricultural
sector. This, in turn, leads to an increase in the relative
returns to factors, such as capital, used intensively in the non-
food manufacturing sector and a fall in returns to unskilled
labor. As rural households depend more on unskilled labor income,
income inequality worsens as a result.
Keywords: Dynamic CGE model, trade liberalisation, poverty,
inequality, Senegal
JEL: D33 D58 E27 F13 F14 I32 O15 O53
Date: 2005
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:lacicr:0513&r=all
256. Nominal wage rigidity in Europe: estimates and
institutional caus es
Orietta DESSY
In this paper we construct and compare different measures of
nomi nal wage rigidity for the EU countries using the 1994-2000
waves of the European Community Household Panel. The observed
distribut ions of nominal wage changes show a relevant percentage
of nomina l wage cuts and freezes across countries. When
measurement error is taken into account in an econometric model
of wage changes app ropriately estimated, it explains almost the
totality of wage cut s observed. Therefore the extent of nominal
wage rigidity is quit e high in Europe. Institutional causes of
wage rigidity are inves tigated, finding an ''hump-shaped''
relationship between nominal wage flexibility and both employment
protection legislation and c oordination. On the other hand, an
''u-shaped'' impact of union c overage on measures of downward
wage rigidity is found
Keywords: Nominal wage rigidity, measurement error, intercountry
comparison, institutions in labor markets
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mil:wpdepa:2005-09&r=all
257. An Analysis of Watermove Water Markets
Robert Brooks
Edwyna Harris
This paper conducts an analysis of the water markets in Victoria
covered by Watermove. The analysis in this paper examines the
weekly trading activity across trading zones. For the majority of
trading zones there is little trading activity that occurs. There
are three trading zones in which the markets for temporary water
rights are reasonably active and liquid on a weekly basis, and
for these zones an analysis is conducted of their demand and
supply elasticities and consumer and producer surplus. The
results of this analysis suggest a stronger relationship on the
supply side between prices, volumes, elasticity and producer
surplus.
Keywords: Water, Water markets, Elasticities, Consumer and
Producer Surplus
JEL: Q25
Date: 2005-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msh:ebswps:2005-10&r=all
258. Non-Market Values and Intra-Household Gender Gap in
Healthcare: The Case of Rural China
Mengtao Gao (CCER - China Center for Economic Research)
Yang Yao (CCER - China Center for Economic Research)
This paper studies the age structure of the gender gap in
household health care allocation by using survey data coillected
on 1428 rural households (8414 persons) in 8 Chinese provinces.
The primary concerns are rthe treatment rate and expenditure
conditional on reported 2-week illnesses. To avoid the potential
bias in self-reported illness, in particular, the bias arising
from wome's tendency to report more illnesses than men,
conditional probit and OLS analyses are adopted. in addition, to
take care the possibility that some illnesses have different
impacts on men and women, we suppplement the study by looking at
people's responses to two specific illnesses, cold and diarrhoea,
that do not have gender implications. We employ several sets of
variables measuring a person's work capability, occupation,
political affiliation, and education to control his potential
market values. Our results show that girls under age 13 do get
significantly less medical care than boys of the same age, but
prime-age wives get more than the husbands, and old-age wives get
less than old-age husbands. While the results for the children
agree with other studies, the pattern for prime-age and old-age
adults is new and consistent with the considerations proposed
above.
Keywords: China, health care allocation, gender, rural
JEL: I31 I38
Date: 2004-10
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:develo:295&r=all
259. Regional vs. Global Risk Sharing in East Asia
Soyuong Kim (Korea University)
Sunghyun H. Kim (Tufts University)
Yunjong Wang (Korea Institute for International Economic
Policy)
This paper estimates the degree of risk sharing in 10 East Asian
countries within the region and with OECD countries by using
cross-country consumption correlation and formal regression
analysis. Estimation results reveal that the degree of risk
sharing is far from complete and even quite low for most
countries in the region. Among individual countries, Taiwan and
Singapore have the highest risk sharing, while Indonesia and
Malaysia the lowest (and significantly negative) risk sharing. We
find no consistent differences in the degree of risk sharing
within East Asia and with OECD countries and the degree of risk
sharing does not increase over time in most countries. We also
measure potential welfare gains from complete risk sharing. The
results show that for less developed countries in the region,
potential risk sharing gains with OECD countries are larger than
those within East Asia.
Keywords: Consumption correlation, East Asia, financial
integration, risk sharing, welfare gains
JEL: F02 F36 F41
Date: 2004-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:financ:316&r=all
260. Impacts of Exchange Rates on Employment in Three Asian
Countries: Korea, Malaysia, and the Philippines
Wanjoong Kim (Korea Institute for International Economic
Policy)
Terrence Kinal (Korea Institute for International Economic
Policy)
Exchange rate fluctuations provide a source of movements in
employment both within and across industries. Previous studies
focus on only developed countries such as OECD countries. But
country and industry characteristics in developing countries are
different form those developed countries, so that the effects of
fluctuations in real exchange rates on employment in developing
countries may be different form those in developed countries.
This paper examines the relationship between exchange rates and
employment using a panel of 28 industries in three developing
countries (Korea, Malaysia, and the Philippines) from 1970 to the
1990s using a panel VAR model. The impulse response functions
show that Korean and Malaysian employment responds positively
only after 1985. Compared to e the developed countries over the
same period, the developing countries show a larger response to
exchange rate shocks.
Keywords: Exchange rates, employment, East Asian Countries,
Panal VAR
JEL: F31 F3 F4 E24
Date: 2004-11
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:macroe:315&r=all
261. On Bounded Dominance Criteria
Erwin Ooghe (Catholic University of Leuven)
Peter J. Lambert (University of Oregon Economics Department)
A well-known criterion to make heterogeneous welfare comparisons
is Atkinson and Bourguignon’s (1987) sequential generalized
Lorenz dominance (SGLD) criterion. Recently, Fleurbaey, Hagnere
and Trannoy (2003) convincingly argue that it contains
unreasonable household utility profiles and suggest to put (lower
and upper) bounds on the needs of the different household types.
First, we generalize Atkinson and Bourguignon’s SGLD criterion,
by introducing lower bounds in the household utility profiles.
Second, we propose a new SGLD criterion by introducing upper
bounds in a similar way. Third, we impose lower and upper bounds
simultaneously and obtain a criterion which is intermediate
between Ebert’s (1999) equivalence scale weighted approach and
Atkinson and Bourguignon’s (1987) SGLD approach.
Keywords: sequential dominance, welfare, equivalence scales
JEL: D63
Date: 2005-05-01
Date: 2005-05-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2005-6&r=all
262. Testing for Neglected Nonlinearity in Long Memory Models
Richard T. Baillie (Queen Mary, University of London)
George Kapetanios (Queen Mary, University of London)
This paper constructs tests for the presence of nonlinearity of
unknown form in addition to a fractionally integrated, long
memory component in a time series process. The tests are based on
artificial neural network structures and do not restrict the
parametric form of the nonlinearity. The tests only require a
consistent estimate of the long memory parameter. Some
theoretical results for the new tests are obtained and detailed
simulation evidence is also presented on the power of the tests.
The new methodology is then applied to a wide variety of economic
and financial time series.
Keywords: Long memory, Non-linearity, Artificial neural networks,
Realized volatility, Absolute returns, Real exchange
rates, Unemployment.
JEL: C22 C12 F31
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp528&r=all
263. Orthogonality Conditions for Non-Dyadic Wavelet Analysis
Stephen Pollock (Queen Mary, University of London)
Iolanda Lo Cascio (Queen Mary, University of London)
The conventional dyadic multiresolution analysis constructs a
succession of frequency intervals in the form of (? /
2 j, ? / 2 j-1);
j = 1, 2, . . . , n of which the bandwidths are
halved repeatedly in the descent from high frequencies to low
frequencies. Whereas this scheme provides an excellent framework
for encoding and transmitting signals with a high degree of data
compression, it is less appropriate to the purposes of
statistical data analysis.
A non-dyadic mixed-radix
wavelet analysis is described that allows the wave bands to be
defined more flexibly than in the case of a conventional dyadic
analysis. The wavelets that form the basis vectors for the wave
bands are derived from the Fourier transforms of a variety of
functions that specify the frequency responses of the filters
corresponding to the sequences of wavelet coefficients.
Keywords: Wavelets, Non-dyadic analysis, Fourier analysis.
JEL: C22
Date: 2005-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp529&r=all
264. Econometric Methods of Signal Extraction
Stephen Pollock (Queen Mary, University of London)
The Wiener–Kolmogorov signal extraction filters, which are
widely used in econometric analysis, are constructed on the basis
of statistical models of the processes generating the data. In
this paper, such models are used mainly as heuristic devices that
are to be specified in whichever ways are appropriate to ensure
that the filters have the desired characteristics. The digital
Butterworth filters, which are described and illustrated in the
paper, are specified in this way. The components of an
econometric time series often give rise to spectral structures
that fall within well-defined frequency bands that are isolated
from each other by spectral dead spaces. We find that the finite-
sample Wiener–Kolmogorov formulation lends itself readily to a
specialisation that is appropriate for dealing with band-limited
components.
Keywords: Signal extraction, Linear filtering, Frequency-domain
analysis, Trend estimation.
JEL: C22
Date: 2005-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp530&r=all
265. On the Non-emptiness of the Fuzzy Core
Nizar Allouch (Queen Mary, University of London)
Arkadi Predtetchinski (Maastricht University)
The seminal contribution of Debreu-Scarf (1963) connects the two
concepts of core and competitive equilibrium in exchange
economies. In effect, their core-equilibrium equivalence result
states that, when the set of economic agents is replicated, the
set of core allocations of the replica economy shrinks to the set
of competitive allocations. Florenzano (1989) defines the fuzzy
core as the set of allocations which cannot be blocked by any
coalition with an arbitrary rate of participation and then shows
the asymptotic limit of cores of replica economics coincides with
the fuzzy core. In this note, we provide an elementary proof of
the non-emptiness of the fuzzy core for an exchange economy.
Unlike the classical Debreu-Scarf limit theorem and its numerous
extensions our result does not require any asymptotic
intersection -or limit- of the set of core allocations of replica
economies.
Keywords: Fuzzy core, Payoff-dependent balancedness, Exchange
economies.
JEL: D51 C71
Date: 2005-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp531&r=all
266. Property Owners in Australia: A Snapshot
Marion Kohler (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Anthony Rossiter (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Property represents more than half of all household assets in
Australia and its share has been rising in recent years. Since
most property purchases require debt financing because of the
size of the purchase, property makes up a large part of both
sides of households’ balance sheets. This paper uses household-
level data to examine what determines the ownership of
residential property and the holding of property debt by
households in Australia. We examine these decisions for both
owner-occupied and investment property. The results suggest that
the household’s age, composition, income and wealth are
important factors determining property ownership and gearing
decisions. Income and wealth are found to be more influential in
determining the value of property owned, while the household’s
age is more influential in determining the gearing. Household
composition is important for decisions on owner-occupied property,
but has a limited influence on investment property decisions.
Keywords: home ownership, investment property, gearing
JEL: D12 R21
Date: 2005-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2005-03&r=all
267. Structural Spurious Regressions and A Hausman-type
Cointegration Test
Chi-Young Choi (University of New Hampshire)
Ling Hu (Ohio State University)
Masao Ogaki (Ohio State University)
This paper proposes two estimators based on asymptotic theory to
estimate structural parameters with spurious regressions
involving unit-root nonstationary variables. This approach
motivates a Hausman-type test for the null hypothesis of
cointegration for dynamic Ordinary Least Squares estimation using
one of our estimators for spurious regressions. We apply our
estimation and testing methods to four applications: (i) long-run
money demand in the U.S.; (ii) long-run implications of the
consumption-leisure choice; (iii) output convergence among
industrial and developing countries; (iv) Purchasing Power Parity
for traded and non-traded goods.
Keywords: Spurious regression, GLS correction method, Dynamic
regression, Test for cointegration.
JEL: C10 C15
Date: 2005-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:roc:rocher:517&r=all
268. Reversal in the Trend of Global Anthropogenic Sulfur
Emissions
David I. Stern (Department of Economics, Rensselaer
Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY 12180-3590, USA)
Global anthropogenic sulfur emissions increased until the late
1980s. Existing estimates for 1995 and 2000 show a moderate
decline from 1990 to 1995 or relative stability throughout the
decade. This paper combines previously published data and new
econometric estimates to show a 25% decline over the decade to a
level not seen since the early 1960s. The decline is evident in
North America, Western and Eastern Europe and in the last few
years in East and South Asia. If this new trend is maintained
local air pollution problems will be ameliorated but global
warming may be somewhat exacerbated.
JEL: Q53 Q54 Q56
Date: 2005-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rpi:rpiwpe:00504&r=all
269. Characterizing the Production Process: A Disaggregated
Analysis of Italian Manufacturing Firms
Giulio Bottazzi
Marco Grazzi
Angelo Secchi
This paper provides a description of the production process by
comparing different frameworks in which to analyze the relations
between inputs and output. The analysis is performed on a
representative sample of Italian manufacturing firms. We employ
both parametric and non-parametric analysis. The last allows to
detect presence of heterogeneity in the way the production is
carried out within each sector. We review some traditional issues
in the econometrics of production function estimation and explain
how some of them can be solved exploiting the cross-sectional
time-series nature of data. Results of the econometric analysis
show that coefficients estimates tend to be robust with respect
to different models employed. Analysis of levels of labor
productivity confirms presence of significant intra-sector
heterogeneity which persists over time.
Keywords: Input and output relation, Panel data, Returns to
scale .
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2004/24&r=all
270. Animal Spirits, Lumpy Investment, and Endogenous Business
Cycles
Giovanni Dosi
Giorgio Fagiolo
Andrea Roventini
In this paper, we present an evolutionary model of industry
dynamics yielding en- dogenous business cycles with 'Keynesian'
features. The model describes an economy composed of firms and
consumers/workers. Firms belong to two industries. The first one
performs R&D and produces heterogeneous machine tools. Firms in
the second industry invest in new machines and produce a
homogenous consumption good. Consumers sell their labor and fully
consume their income. In line with the empirical literature on
investment patterns, we assume that the investment decisions by
firms are lumpy and constrained by their financial structures.
Moreover, drawing from behavioral theories of the firm, we assume
boundedly rational expectation formation. Simulation results show
that the model is able to deliver self-sustaining patterns of
growth characterized by the presence of endogenous business
cycles. The model can also replicate the most important stylized
facts concerning micro- and macro-economic dynamics. Indeed, we
find that investment is more volatile than GDP; consumption is
less volatile than GDP; investment, consumption and change in
stocks are procyclical and coincident variables; employment is
procyclical; unemployment rate is countercyclical; firm size
distributions are skewed but depart from log-normality; firm
growth distributions are tent-shaped.
Keywords: Evolutionary Dynamics, Agent-Based Computational
Economics, Animal Spirits, Lumpy Investment, Output
Fluctuations, Endogenous Business Cycles.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2005/04&r=all
271. A Note on Equilibrium Selection in Polya-Urn Coordination
Games
Giorgio Fagiolo
We study equilibrium selection in coordination games played by a
population whose size increases over time. In each time period, a
new player enters the economy, observes current strategy shares
and irreversibly chooses a strategy on the basis of expected
payoffs. We employ a simple Polya-Urn scheme to discuss the
efficiency of long-run equilibria under alternative individual
decision rules (e.g. best-reply, logit, etc.). We show that the
system delivers a predictable outcome only when agents employ
either a linear or a logit probability rule. If agents employ
deterministic best-reply rules, Pareto-efficient coordination can
occur, but the actual outcome depends on initial conditions and
chance. In all other cases, coexistence of strategies
characterizes equilibrium configurations.
Keywords: Coordination Games, Equilibrium Selection, Pareto-
Efficient vs. Risk- Dominant Equilibrium, Polya-Urn
Schemes.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2005/05&r=all
272. Price and Wealth Dynamics in a Speculative Market with an
Arbitrary Number of Generic Technical Traders
Mikhail Anufriev
Giulio Bottazzi
We consider a simple pure exchange economy with two assets, one
riskless, yielding a constant return, and one risky, paying a
stochastic dividend, and we assume trading to take place in
discrete time inside an endogenous price formation setting.
Traders demand for the risky asset is expressed as a fraction of
their individual wealth and is based on future prices forecast
obtained on the basis of past market history. The general case is
studied in which an arbitrary large number of heterogeneous
traders operates in the market and any smooth function which maps
the infinite information set to the present investment choice is
allowed as agent's trading behavior. A complete characterization
of equilibria is given and their stability conditions are derived.
We find that this economy can only possess isolated generic
equilibria where a single agent dominates the market and
continuous manifolds of non-generic equilibria where many agents
hold finite wealth shares. We show that irrespectively of agents
number and of their behavior, all possible equilibria belong to a
one dimensional "Equilibria Market Line". Finally we discuss the
relative performances of different strategies and the selection
principle governing market dynamics.
Keywords: Asset Pricing Model, CRRA Framework, Equilibria Market
Line, Market Selection Principle.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2005/06&r=all
273. Common Currencies and FDI Flows
Stefano Schiavo
The paper investigates the impact of EMU on foreign direct
investment flows. Using the option value approach to investment
decisions, it is possible to show how exchange rate uncertainty
hinders cross-border investment flows. By permanently fixing
bilateral exchange rates, a currency union can then be expected
to spur international investment. Results from a gravity model on
a sample of OECD countries confirm the hypothesis that currency
unions have a positive impact on FDI; moreover, adopting the same
currency appears to do more than merely eliminating exchange rate
volatility. These findings closely resemble those recently
obtained in the trade literature.
Keywords: EMU, Currency Union, FDI, Uncertainty, Investment.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2005/07&r=all
274. Commercialisation Strategies of Technology based European
SMEs: Markets for Technology vs. Markets for Products
Paola Giuri
Alessandra Luzzi
This paper focuses on European small-medium "serial innovators"
at the beginning of the 1990s and provides an empirical basis to
answer the following questions: who are the upstream specialized
small-medium technology producers? How are they distributed
across countries? Are there technologies in which they show a
relative advantage? By focusing on firms? history, activities,
and the description of events obtained by different data sources,
we also investigates if technology based SMEs choose to implement
a strategy based on the commercialisation of their technologies
or if they invest in the complementary assets of production,
marketing and distribution becoming micro-chandlerian firms.
Through this analysis we are able to propose a taxonomy of
technology based SMEs? strategies in the market for technology,
in the market for embedded technologies and in the market for
products.
Keywords: SMEs, Technology Strategies, Licensing.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2005/08&r=all
275. Does Spatial Disaggregation Matter in Job Creation and
Destruction Flows?
Elena Cefis
Roberto Gabriele
The paper investigates the changes in job creation and
destruction flows considering a very disaggregate level of
analysis. If institutional setup plays a more important role
compared to other factors, than at lower levels of aggregation we
should observe that job flows regularities are in line with
national ones. We explore the issue using a unique database on
the population of firms in Trentino (a North-Eastern Province of
Italy) from 1991 to 2001. We find that: (a) job flows show a
”fractal” nature, i.e. many regularities appear to be scale
invariant (magnitude of flows and their persistence). In
particular job flows magnitude is in line with the average values
for Italy; (b) there are some qualifications to ”fractality”:
entrant firms’ contribution to job creation process is lower
than the corresponding contribution at national level, whereas
the job destruction share accounted for by exit firms is around
30%, in line with stylized facts; (c) size and age shape the job
flows; (d) shifts of jobs between macro sectors are rare.
Keywords: Labour Reallocation, Job Flows, Sample Selection, Two-
Stage Heckman Estimator.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2005/09&r=all
276. Intellectual Property Rights and Market Dynamics
Fabrizio Cesaroni
Paola Giuri
Two opposite models are currently operating in the modern
economy, the strong intellectual property rights (IPR) model, and
the open source/open science model. They have traditionally been
applied to alternative institutional contexts. The strong IPR
model has been associated to the business environment, while the
open science model has been associated to the academic or
research system. More recently, a strengthening of the IPR system
has occurred in the public research system, and open science
models have been adopted in private sectors like the open source
software. This paper discusses these different models and their
implications on the innovative activity of firms and economies,
and the market dynamics. One of the main benefits deriving from a
strong IPR system is that it encourages the entry of new
technology-based firms and the commercialisation of technologies
in markets for technologies. At the same time, an increased
patent protection is also associated to potential costs, such as
those arising from a excessive fragmentation of property rights,
an abuse of patent protection for strategic reasons (sleeping and
blocking patents), and an increase in litigation costs.
Keywords: Intellectual Property Rights, Patents, Patent Policy,
Open Science, Open Source Software, Technology
Commercialisation and Diffusion
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2005/10&r=all
277. ICT, Skills and Organisational Change: Evidence from a
Panel of Italian Manufacturing Firms
Paola Giuri
Salvatore Torrisi
Natalia Zinovyeva
This paper explores the complementarity between skills,
organizational change and investments in information and
communication technology (ICT). Our work contributes to the
literature on the effects of ICT by testing the hypothesis of
complementarity in a panel of 540 Italian manufacturing firms
during the period 1995-2000. Our analysis provides strong support
to the hypothesis of complementarity between skills and ICT (
which is at the core of the skill-biased technical change theory).
We also find some evidence in favour of the skill-biased
organizational change hypothesis. The results obtained by drawing
on different statistical methods suggest that interactions among
ICT, skills and organizational change are complex and non-linear
and difficult to explain.
Keywords: Organisational Change, ICT Investment, Workplace
Organization, Human Capital, Productivity
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2005/11&r=all
278. Conditional Nonparametric Frontier Models for Convex and
Non Convex Technologies: a Unifying Approach
Cinzia Daraio
Leopold Simar
The explanation of productivity differentials is very important
to identify the economic conditions that create inefficiency and
to improve managerial performance. In literature two main
approaches have been developed: one-stage approaches and two-
stage approaches. Daraio and Simar (2003) propose a full
nonparametric methodology based on conditional FDH and
conditional order-m frontiers without any convexity assumption on
the technology. On the one hand, convexity has always been
assumed in mainstream production theory and general equilibrium.
On the other hand, in many empirical applications, the convexity
assumption can be reasonable and sometimes natural. Leading by
these considerations, in this paper we propose a unifying
approach to introduce external-environmental variables in
nonparametric frontier models for convex and non convex
technologies. Developing further the work done in Daraio and
Simar (2003) we introduce a conditional DEA estimator, i.e., an
estimator of production frontier of DEA type conditioned to some
external-environmental variables which are neither inputs nor
outputs under the control of the producer. A robust version of
this conditional estimator is also proposed. These various
measures of efficiency provide also indicators of convexity.
Illustrations through simulated and real data (mutual funds)
examples are reported.
Keywords: Convexity, External-Environmental Factors, Production
Frontier, Nonparametric Estimation, Robust Estimation.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2005/12&r=all
279. "Industrial structure in the era of Japan's Industrial
Revolution" (in Japanese)
Haruhito Takeda (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)
In this paper I set out my reasons for opposing Professor
Takafusa Nakamura's view of "the era of balanced growth from the
Meiji Restoration to World War I". For this purpose, this paper
explores the change of Japan's industrial structure in 1890-1910,
using the growth rate of individual industry. It is well known
that cotton spinning industry was the leading-sector. However the
growth rate of cotton industry apparently showed slow-down in the
1900's. In contrast, heavy industry such as machine tool,
shipbuilding and iron & steel showed high speed growth. It
follows from that the leading-sector among industries changed in
the 1900's. Moreover, the slow-down of growth rate of cotton
spinning, cotton weaving and other traditional goods
manufacturings, which are most important part of Nakamura's
argument suggests 'the imbalanced growth' is the characteristic
of the era before WWI.
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:jseres:2005cj128&r=all
280. Factores determinantes de la estrategia de diversificacion
relacionada: una aplicacion a las empresas industriales
espanolas
Jose Emilio Navas Lopez (Departamento de Organizacion de
Empresas.Universidad Complutense de Madrid.)
Patricia Huerta Riveros (Departamento de Administracion y
Auditoria. Universidad Complutense de Madrid.)
El objetivo de este articulo es analizar los factores
determinantes de la estrategia de diversificacion relacionada.
Para ello, se ha realizado una revision de la literatura
especializada descubriendo que son dos las teorias que con mayor
potencial justifican dicha estrategia: la Economia Industrial y
la Teoria de Recursos y Capacidades. A partir de estas teorias
se disena el modelo teorico de analisis. Para contrastar el
modelo se utiliza la base de datos de la Encuesta sobre
Estrategias Empresariales (ESEE), para el periodo 1991-2002. Se
aplica la regresion logistica binomial a un panel incompleto y
completo de observaciones de empresas diversificadas. Los
resultados del estudio sugieren que la concentracion industrial,
la rentabilidad industrial, los activos fisicos e intangibles y
el tamano de las empresas son factores que determinan que la
empresa siga una estrategia de diversificacion relacionada.
Date: 2005
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doctra:05-03&r=all
281. Structural changes and competitiveness in Spanish
manufacturing industry: Analysis of some relationships
Antonio Fonfria (Universidad Complutense de Madrid.
Facultad de Ciencias Economicas y Empresariales. Dpto.
Economia aplicada.)
Isabel Alvarez (Universidad Complutense de Madrid. Facultad
de Ciencias Economicas y Empresariales. Dpto. Economia
aplicada.)
Carlos Diaz de la Guardia (Universidad Complutense de
Madrid. Facultad de Ciencias Economicas y Empresariales.
Dpto. Economia aplicada.)
This paper analyses the main changes occurred in the productive
structure of Spanish manufacturing industry in the last years, by
relating them to variations in economic results observed therein
and their realtionships. The analysis was carried out to three
figures on the NACE and registers variables relative to the
economic structure and performance of sectors.
Date: 2005
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doctra:05-04&r=all
282. Food Protection for Sale
Rigoberto A. Lopez (University of Connecticut)
Xenia Matschke (University of Connecticut)
This article tests the Protection for Sale (PFS) model using
detailed data from U.S. food processing industries from 1978 to
1992 under alternative import demand specifications. All
empirical results support the PFS model predictions and previous
empirical work qualitatively. Although welfare weights are very
sensitive to import demand specification, a surprising result is
that we obtain weights between 2.6 and 3.6 for domestic welfare
using import slopes or elasticities derived from domestic demand
and supply functions. In contrast, results based on import slopes
or elasticities from directly specified import demands (including
the Armington model) yield the usual, unrealistically large
estimates for the domestic welfare weight. We contend that the
latter empirical paradox arises mainly because the explanatory
variables tend to be extremely large for industries with low
import ratios and/or low estimated elasticities or slopes
resulting from relatively volatile import prices. The results
with derived import parameters point to a much stronger role of
campaign contributions within the PFS model than previously found.
They also suggest that the commonly-used Armington estimates may
not be appropriate for estimating the PFS model.
Keywords: Trade protection, tariffs, lobbying, political economy,
food manufacturing
JEL: F13 F1 L66 C12
Date: 2005-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2005-13&r=all
283. The Contractionary Short-Run Effects of a Devaluation in
Developing Countries: Some Neglected Nuances
Arslan Razmi (University of Massachusetts Amherst)
This paper extends the framework developed by Krugman and Taylor
1978) to take into account nuances related to the evolving
structure of international trade. In particular, the increasing
presence of transnational production chains and differential
pricing behavior of de- veloping country exports destined for
industrial and developing countries are accommodated. Individual
country and panel data pass-through estimates are then provided
to justify the va- lidity of the latter extension. The
theoretical likelihood of contractionary short-run effects of
nominal devaluations is shown to be positively related to the
proportion of a country's exports destined for other developing
countries. The policy implications emerging from the extended
framework underline the need to take into account these nuances
of international trade while designing exchange rate policies.
JEL Categories: F12, F14, F23, F41
Keywords: Nominal devaluations, differential pass-through
elasticities, contractionary deval- uations, income
effects, transnational corporations.
Date: 2005-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ums:papers:2005-09&r=all
284. Tracing the dynamics of competition: Evidence from company
profits
Jesus Crespo Cuaresma
Adelina Gschwandtner
This paper proposes a simple approach to analyzing pro?t dynam-
ics which allows for time-varying persistence of pro?ts. The
time se- ries model is a simple autoregressive process where the
dynamics of the persistence parameter follow an autoregressive or
random walk pro- cess. Using the longest time series available on
pro?ts for six US ?rms (Archer-Daniels-Midland , Avon, Coca
Cola, Johnson & Johnson, WHX Corporation andWrigley), we analyze
the dynamics of pro?t persistence for the second half of the
twentieth century.
JEL: L00 C22
Date: 2005-03
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vie:viennp:0504&r=all
285. European integration: the third step
Bowen, H.
Sleuwaegen, L.
A perception of declining EU competitiveness has intensified
calls for structural reforms within the EU. This paper examines
recent evidence on changes in relative EU competitiveness and
considers the observed changes in relation to the evolving
competitive environment facing EU firms during the past two
decades. Our analysis suggests that recent declines in EU
competitiveness reflect an adjustment (or lack thereof) within
the EU in response to an evolutionary aˆ?Third Stepaˆ in
the process of EU integration: global market integration. We find
that, starting from the mid-1990s, the EU began to face
unprecedented increases in external sources of competition. The
rising competition from external sources has created pressures
for EU firms to alter their organizational and product market
strategies to meet the challenge of a globally integrating market.
While many leading EU firms are found to have responded to this
challenge, EU firms remain hampered by anachronistic EU product
and labor market regulations. The growing calls for structural
reform therefore reflect the increased external competitive
pressure on EU firms as they attempt to respond to growing global
competition and to thereby strengthen their global
competitiveness.
Keywords: Competitiveness, European Integration, Foreign
Competition, Globalization
JEL: D21 F02 F23 L10 O40
Date: 2004-10-23
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vlg:vlgwps:2004-19a&r=all
286. Private equity investments and disclosure policy
Beuselinck, C.
Deloof, M.
Manigart,S.
We investigate whether a firm’s disclosure policy is affected
by the changing corporate setting and intensified corporate
governance associated with private equity (PE) investments. For a
unique sample of unquoted PE backed firms we observe a
significant switch to increased financial disclosure in the pre-
investment year, consistent with the hypothesis that
entrepreneurs attempt to reduce information asymmetries inherent
to the PE application by increasing their disclosure levels.
Further, we document that the governance and professionalization
impact of PE investors affects their portfolio firms’ financial
disclosure positively. Finally, differentiating on investor type (
government versus non-government related) reveals no overall
effect on disclosure, both in the pre- as in the post-investment
years. Results are robust to various sensitivity checks.
Keywords: Disclosure, private equity, unlisted firms, monitoring,
corporate governance Note
JEL: G30 M10 M41
Date: 2005-02-14
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vlg:vlgwps:2005-1&r=all
287. Benchmarking the competitiveness of nations: non-uniform
weighting and non-economic dimensions
Bowen, Harry P.
Moesen, W.
This paper addresses two methodological issues concerning the
construction of a composite indicator of national competitiveness.
The first is the choice of weights to be used to aggregate the
underlying primitive data. Most composite indicators use
predetermined fixed weight values that are then applied uniformly
to all countries. However, such uniform weighting fails to
recognize that countries may have different policy priorities
with respect to the different primitive dimensions used to form a
given index. To the extent a country’s mix of priorities
differs from that represented by the imposed weight pattern, the
use of uniform weighting may bias measurement, and hence
inferences, of relative competitiveness. We propose in this paper
a procedure that allows weights to be endogenously determined and
that are applied individually to each country. These country
specific weights explicitly take account of a country’s own
choices and performance across primitive dimensions. We
illustrate our procedure by applying it to examine the widely
cited Growth Competitiveness Index developed by the World
Economic Forum. The second issue we address is the conceptual
scope of national competitiveness indicators. Such indicators
often consider only the “economic” domain when assessing
relative performance. This singular focus may also bias
inferences about relative performance since it ignores other
national goals or priorities. We therefore broaden the scope for
evaluating relative performance by combining a traditional index
of competitiveness with two additional dimensions that may
impinge on a country’s performance: environmental
sustainability and governance. The resulting Composite Inclusive
Index is formed using weights that allow that countries may
choose different combinations of the three dimensions but still
achieve the same level of overall performance. A performance
ranking across countries is then presented based on values of the
Composite Inclusive Index.
Keywords: Note
Date: 2005-03-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vlg:vlgwps:2005-2&r=all
288. Performance improvement through supply chain collaboration:
conventional wisdom versus empirical findings
Vereecke, Ann
Muylle, Steve
Supply chain collaboration is claimed to yield significant
improvements in multiple performance areas: it is believed to
reduce costs, to increase quality, to improve delivery, to
augment flexibility, to cut procurement cost and lead time, and
to stimulate innovativeness. Yet empirical support for the
relationship between supply chain collaboration and performance
improvement is scarce. Our research adds to this emerging stream
of research by providing empirical evidence from the
engineering/assembly industries, based on data collected through
the International Manufacturing Strategy Survey (IMSS) in Europe.
The study reveals that supply chain collaboration is no guarantee
for success: performance improvement is only weakly related to
the extent of collaboration with customers or suppliers. However,
strong improvers in multiple performance areas are found to be
heavily engaged in collaboration projects with customers and
suppliers, through extensive information exchange and higher
levels of structural coordination.
Keywords: supply chain management, collaboration, performance
improvement Note
Date: 2005-03-11
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vlg:vlgwps:2005-3&r=all
289. In search for the heffalump: an exploration of the
cognitive style profiles among entrepreneurs
Bouckenooghe, Dave
Van den Broeck, Herman
Cools,Eva
Vanderheyden, Karlien
n this article we reopen the search for those features that
distinguish entrepreneurs from non-entrepreneurs. Because the
trait psychology approach failed to fulfill this promise the
cognitive psychology approach was adopted. The exploration of
cognitive styles among 497 entrepreneurs and 521 non-
entrepreneurs in Flanders distinguishes six profiles: omnipotent
thinkers, lazy thinkers, pacesetters, experts, inventors, and
implementors. A comparison of both groups yields differences in
the prevalence of inventors and implementors. We find
significantly more inventors in the group of entrepreneurs and
significantly more implementors in the group of non-entrepreneurs.
Finally, the results of this study also indicate that
entrepreneurs may differ in the cognitive style profiles they
hold.
Keywords: cognitive styles, entrepreneurs, non-entrepreneurs,
cluster analysis Note
Date: 2005-05-09
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vlg:vlgwps:2005-4&r=all
290. The role of the psychological contract in retention
management: Confronting HR-managers’ and employees’
views on retention factors and the relationship with
employees’ intentions to stay
De Vos, Ans
Meganck, Annelies
Buyens, Dirk
This article examines HR managers’ and employees’ views on
the factors affecting employee retention. This is done by
integrating findings from the literature on retention management
with the theoretical framework of the psychological contract. In
a first study a sample of HR managers from a diverse group of
public and private firms described the factors they believed to
affect employee retention and the retention practices set up in
their organization. In a second study, a large and diverse sample
of employees reported on the importance attached to five types of
employer inducements commonly regarded as retention factors. They
also evaluated their employers’ delivery of these inducements
and provided information on their loyalty, intentions to stay and
job search behaviors. The results of both studies are discussed
and implications for HR managers are highlighted.
Keywords: Note
Date: 2005-05-10
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vlg:vlgwps:2005-5&r=all
291. Corporate international diversification: the impact of
foreign competition, industry globalization and product
diversification
Wiersema,Margarethe
Bowen, Harry P.
Significant reductions in barriers to international commerce
since the mid-1970s have resulted in markets and industries
becoming increasingly integrated across nations. A key
consequence of industry globalization has been substantially
increased levels of foreign competition in the markets of most
nations, and in particular in the U.S. marketplace. The changes
in competitive conditions facing firms as markets and industries
become more globalized are significant economic phenomena that
can be expected to impact corporate strategy in general, and
corporate international diversification strategy in particular.
Despite increasing global economic integration, the impact of
industry globalization on corporate strategy is a question that
has been largely overlooked in both the strategic management and
international business literatures. This paper seeks to fill this
important gap by examining the role of both environmental and
firm specific factors in shaping a firm’s international
diversification strategy. Specifically, we develop a theoretical
framework for understanding how industry globalization, foreign
competition, and firm product diversification would be expected
to influence a firm’s strategic choice of its level of
international diversification. We then empirically examine for
the predicted impact and importance of these factors in a panel
data set of U.S. firms from 1987 to 1993. Our study provides the
first empirical examination and evidence that industry
globalization and foreign-based competition are statistically
significant factors explaining the increased international
diversification of U.S. firms.
Keywords: Corporate Strategy, Globalization, International
Diversification Note
Date: 2005-05-11
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vlg:vlgwps:2005-6&r=all
292. Optimal Unemployment Insurance and Voting
Andreas Pollak (University of Freiburg)
The framework of a general equilibrium heterogeneous agent model
is used to study the optimal design of an unemployment insurance (
UI) scheme and the voting behaviour on unemployment policy
reforms. In a first step, the optimal defined benefit and defined
replacement ratio UI systems are obtained in simulations. Then,
the question whether switching to such an optimal system from the
status quo would be approved by a majority of the voters is
explored. Finally, the transitional dynamics following a policy
change are analysed. Accounting for this transition has an
important influence on the voting outcome.
Keywords: insurance, heterogeneous agents, job search, voting,
human capital
JEL: C61 D58 D78 E24 E61 J64 J65
Date: 2005-05-12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpco:0505002&r=all
293. Solow and the Native Americans: Technological Residuals and
the Economic Performance of U.S. Native American Economies
Voxi Heinrich Amavilah (REEPS & Glendale College)
This paper decomposes the large regression residuals of income
across 84 U.S. Native American economies (USNAEs) into Solow and
Solow-like parts. Decomposition is accomplished algebraically.
The calculations find a weak to negative correlation between
income and Solow residuals, and a strong correlation between
income and Solow-like residuals, especially those associated with
human capital and external technology. It also finds that
technological residuals are skewed towards high income USNAEs.
The reason seems to be that high income USNAEs are better able to
build human capital which supports the Nelson-Phelps channel for
transmitting technology from external sources.
Keywords: performance, Solow-Solow-like technological residuals,
U.S. Native American economies (USNAEs), infrastructure,
superstructure, growth
JEL: O47 R30 F43 D24 C31 P47 O51
Date: 2005-05-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0505008&r=all
294. Technological Specialization and Convergence of Small
Countries: The Case of the Late-industrializing Asian NIEs
Poh-Kam Wong (Entrepreneurship Centre, National University
of Singapore)
Annette Singh (Entrepreneurship Centre, National University
of Singapore)
This paper examines the changing pattern of technological
specialization of the four small, newly industrializing economies
NIEs) from East Asia as they move up the economic development
ladder. In addition, the paper also investigates whether there is
convergence or divergence between these NIEs and two reference
groups of advanced economies -- eight small, advanced European
countries and the G7. We find that the East Asian NIEs had a
higher degree of technological concentration than both the group
of 8 advanced small European economies and the group of G7
countries, although the differences had narrowed over time. The
East Asian NIEs’ technological specialization pattern has also
been diverging from those of the small advanced European
countries, while converging among themselves (as well as towards
the G7 until recently).
Keywords: Technological Specialization; Innovation; Patent
Statistics; Newly Industrialized Economies
JEL: O P
Date: 2005-05-11
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0505011&r=all
295. The Large Sample Behaviour of the Generalized Method of
Moments Estimator in Misspecified Models
Alastair R. Hall (North Carolina State University)
Atsushi Inoue (North Carolina State University)
This paper presents the limiting distribution theory for the GMM
estimator when the estimation is based on a population moment
condition which is subject to non--local (or fixed)
misspecification. It is shown that if the parameter vector is
overidentified then the weighting matrix plays a far more
fundamental role than it does in the corresponding analysis for
correctly specified models. Specifically, the rate of convergence
of the estimator depends on the rate of convergence of the
weighting matrix to its probability limit. The analysis is
presented for four particular choices of weighting matrix which
are commonly used in practice. In each case the limiting
distribution theory is different, and also different from the
limiting distribution in a correctly specified model. Statistics
are proposed which allow the researcher to test hypotheses about
the parameters in misspecified models.
Keywords: Misspecification, Generalized Method of Moments,
Asymptotic Distribution Theory
JEL: C10 C32
Date: 2005-05-10
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0505002&r=all
296. ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF BUSINESS TELECOMMUNICATIONS DEMAND
USING RETINA AND FINITE MIXTURES
Massimiliano Marinucci (Universidad Complutense Madrid)
Teodosio Perez-Amaral (Universidad Complutense Madrid)
We estimate the business telecommunications demands for local,
intra- LATA and inter-LATA services, using US telecommunications
data from a Bill Harvesting (R) survey carried out during 1997.
We model heterogeneity, which is present among firms due to a
variety of different business telecommunication needs, by
estimating heteroskedastic normal mixture regression models for
each demand. The results show that a three components mixture
model fits well the demand for local services while a two
components structure is used to model intra-LATA and inter-LATA
demand. We describe the groups in terms of their difference among
the coefficient regressors, and then use Retina to perform
automatic model selection over a new expanded candidate regressor
set which includes heterogeneity parameters as well as
transformation of the original variables. Our results show that
obtained models improve substantially the in-sample as well the
out-of-sample predictive ability over alternative candidate
models. Retina suggests that the final demand specification
should include also interaction terms between telephone equipment
variables which are found to be negative. On the other side the
output of the firm, as well as its physical extension, have
second order, yet significant effects on the demand for
telecommunication services. Estimated elasticities are different
for the three demands but always positive for access form (single-
line or private network), while the effects of other variables is
secondary.
Keywords: Telecommunication Demand Models, Local calls, inter-
LATA calls, intra-LATA calls, Retina, Flexible
Functional Forms, Heterogeneity, Finite Mixtures.
JEL: C21 C51 C87
Date: 2005-05-10
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0505003&r=all
297. Long-Run Cash-Flow and Discount-Rate Risks in the Cross-
Section of US Returns
Michail Koubouros (University of Peloponnese)
Dimitrios Malliaropulos (University of Piraeus & National
Bank of Greece)
Ekaterini Panopoulou (National University of Ireland,
Maynooth)
This paper decomposes the overall market (CAPM) risk into parts
reflecting uncertainty related to the long-run dynamics of
portfolio- specific and market cash flows and discount rates. We
decompose market betas into four sub-betas (associated with
assets' and market's cash- flows and discount-rates) and we
employ a discrete time version of the I-CAPM to derive a four-
beta model. The model performs well in pricing average returns on
single- and double-sorted portfolios according to size, book-to-
market, dividend-price ratios and past risk, by producing high
estimates for the explained cross-sectional variation in average
returns and economically and statistically acceptable estimates
for the coefficient of relative risk aversion.
Keywords: CAPM, cash-flow risk, discount-rate risk, VAR-GARCH,
BEKK, asset pricing
JEL: G
Date: 2005-05-08
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0505009&r=all
298. How Ownership Structure Affects Capital Structure and Firm
Performance? Recent Evidence from East Asia
Nigel Driffield (Aston Business School)
Vidya Mahambare (Cardiff Business School)
Sarmistha Pal (Brunel University)
Despite the seminal work of Claessens et al. (2002), who
highlighted the role of ownership structure on firm performance
in East Asia, the relationship between capital structure and
ownership remains much unexplored. This is important, given
recent empirical and theoretical work linking capital structure
and performance. The novelty of the present paper is that in
examining the effects of ownership concentration on capital
structure and firm performance, it not only allows for
simultaneity between capital structure and firm performance, but
also controls for one possible source of moral hazard related to
the higher voting rights relative to cash flow rights. The paper
clearly establishes that results are rather country-specific and
the effects of ownership structure on firm performance cannot be
delineated from its effects on leverage. More interestingly,
these results highlight that higher voting rights could pose some
moral hazard problem if there is a controlling manager
shareholder called Cronyman in our analysis. Evidently family
ownership could mitigate some of these moral hazard problems,
though it could exacerbate the problem of over-lending. As such,
the results presented here confirm and extend the essential
findings of Claessens et al. (2002).
Keywords: Asian Crisis, Corporate Governance, Capital structure,
Firm performance, Expropriation of minority
shareholders, Moral hazard, 3SLS estimates,
Simultaneity bias, Non-linearity.
JEL: G32
Date: 2005-05-09
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0505010&r=all
299. Dynamic Adjustment of Corporate Leverage: Is there a lesson
to learn from the Recent Asian Crisis?
Nigel Driffield (Aston Business School, Birmingham, UK)
Vidya Mahambare (Cardiff Business School, Cardiff UK)
Sarmistha Pal (Department of Economics & Finance, Brunel
University, UK)
While the aggregate macroeconomic analysis of the recent Asian
Crisis highlights the moral hazard problem of bad loans in poorly
supervised and regulated East Asian economies, there is very
little firm-level analysis to characterize it. The present paper
attempts to fill in this gap of the literature and focuses on the
process of dynamic adjustment of the actual leverage towards the
optimum. Our results based on the Worldscope firm-level panel
data indicate a close correspondence between excess leverage and
excess capital stock and also reveal signs of corporate inertia.
This inertia has been evident not only among firms with excess
capital stock, but also among those with larger share of short-
term debt in the worst affected countries, especially during the
pre-crisis and crisis periods; the adjustment process was however
speeded up in the post-crisis period. One possible way out of
this problem of bad loans would be to develop the equity market
and induce the firms to rely more on equity finance.
Keywords: Moral hazard, Over-lending and over-investment, Speed
of adjustment, Inertia, Generalised Methods of Moments
JEL: G32
Date: 2005-05-09
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0505011&r=all
300. A Stronger Case for Transitive Preferences
Theodore Turocy (Texas A&M University)
The assumption that preferences are transitive, or, equivalently,
that choice behavior satisfies the Weak Axiom of Revealed
Preference, is at the core of most economic theory. While this is
a natural assumption, one could ask the degree to which it is
restrictive: are there objectives that could not be attained by
such behavior that could be attained by choices violating the
assumption? It is argued that the answer to this question is no
in one setting of choice under random budget sets.
Keywords: transitivity
JEL: C7 D8
Date: 2005-05-10
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpga:0505004&r=all
301. A new approach to solve old problems
Alexander Harin (Modern Humanitarian Academy)
Arrangements (agreements, contracts, regulations, bargains, etc.)
are widespread economic events and are the fundamental concept
of the economic theory. Infringements (breaches, modifications,
deviations, changes, etc.) of arrangements are common and have a
significant importance for the economic theory. For many years
now the arrangement infringements have lacked appropriate
attention in the economic theory. This fact caused a number of
theoretical and practical problems. In order to solve them a new
approach is proposed, which considers the possibility of
arrangement infringements. This article gives a simple example
and a new result of the approach application.
Keywords: risk investment insurance
JEL: D8 D81 C D E
Date: 2005-05-10
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpga:0505005&r=all
302. Dynamic Stability and Reform of Political Institutions
Roger Lagunoff (Georgetown University)
This paper studies dynamic, endogenous institutional change. We
introduce the class of dynamic political games (DPGs), dynamic
games in which future political aggregation rules are decided
under current ones, and the resulting institutional choices do
not affect payoffs or technology directly. A companion paper (
Lagunoff (2005b)) establishes existence of Markov Perfect
equilibria of dynamic political games. The present paper examines
issues of stability and reform when such equilibria exist. Which
environments tend toward institutional stability? Which tend
toward reform? We show that when political rules are dynamically
consistent and private sector decisions areinessential,reform
never occurs: all political rules are stable. Roughly,private
sector decisions are inessential if any feasible ``social'
continuation payoff can achieved by public sector decisions alone.
More generally, we identify sufficient conditions for stability
and reform in terms of recursive self selection and recursive
self denial,incentive compatibility concepts that treat the rules
themselves as ``players' who can strategically delegate future
policy-making authority to different institutional types. These
ideas are illustrated in an example of dynamic public goods
provision.
Keywords: Recursive, dynamic political games, institutional
reform, stability, dynamically consistent rules,
inessential, recursive self selection.
JEL: C73 D72 D74
Date: 2005-05-12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpga:0505006&r=all
303. Beyond Linearity Critique: The Knife-Edge Assumption of
Steady State Growth
Jakub Growiec (Warsaw School of Economics Szko?a G?owna
Handlowa w Warszawie)
The 'linearity critique' of endogenous growth models is
presented in a general context of an arbitrary growth model and
reassessed. It is argued, that presence of linearities is not a
valid criterion for rejecting growth models, since the presence
of exponential steady state growth is itself a knife-edge
condition, which is not satisfied by typical parameter values.
Hence, it is fragile and sensitive to smallest disturbances in
parameter values. Adding higher order differential equations to a
model does not change the knife-edge character of exponential
steady state growth.
Keywords: exponential steady state economic growth, knife-edge
condition, linearity critique, ordinary differential
equation
JEL: C61 C62 O41
Date: 2005-05-09
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpge:0505003&r=all
304. The Physician-Patient Relationship Revisited - the
Patient's View
Udo Schneider (University of Bayreuth)
Volker Ulrich (University of Bayreuth)
The importance of the physician-patient relationship for the
health care market is beyond controversy. Most theoretical work
is done in a principal-agent framework, dealing with moral hazard
problems. Recent work emphasizes a two-sided asymmetric
information relationship between physician and patient (double
moral hazard). In contrast to most work looking only at the
physician's perspectives, our paper concentrates on the patient's
view. Estimation results using panel data support the hypotheses
that physician consultation and health-relevant behavior are not
stochastically independent. This means that health care demand is
determined by the patient and not only by the physician. In the
recursive bivariate probit model, the patient’s health-relevant
behavior has a significant positive influence on the probability
of a physician visit. This should be taken into account in the
discussion that primary care physicians should function as
gatekeepers.
Keywords: physician-patient relationship, health behavior,
bivariate probit
JEL: I11 C33 D82
Date: 2005-05-12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwphe:0505001&r=all
305. Investment-Saving Comovement and Capital Mobility: Evidence
from Century Long U.S. Time Series
Daniel Levy (Emory University)
This paper makes three contributions: First, I construct annual
time series of gross domestic investment and national saving in
the U.S. for the 1897–1949 period using historical component
series. I compare the qualitative and quantitative properties of
the newly constructed series with the properties of four existing
alternative series constructed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Commerce Department, Kuznets, and Kendrick. Second, I combine
the newly constructed data with the Bureau of Economic
Analysis’ 1929–89 period data, and the resulting time series
are used to re-examine and document the long-run bivariate
relationship between the time series of investment and saving.
Third, I also examine the short-run as well as the cyclical
relationships between the time series of investment and saving.
The results reported in this paper indicate that there is a
strong long-run and cyclical relationship between investment and
saving, and this relationship seems to be independent of the time
period considered. Furthermore, I find that during the postwar
period the investment-saving comovement is strong and significant
also in the short run. However, this is not true during the
prewar period. Quantitatively, I find that the investment-saving
relationship is stronger during the postwar period than the
prewar period. Feldstein and his coauthors have argued that the
high investment-saving correlation reflects imperfect capital
mobility. This view, however, is hard to reconcile with the
finding that the correlation increased during a period in which
it is largely believed that capital markets have become more open
and integrated. I conclude, therefore, that long-term capital
mobility tests based on investment- saving correlation analysis
are not likely to provide an accurate measure of capital mobility.
Keywords: Investment-Saving Correlation, Investment-Saving
Comovement, Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle, Capital Mobility,
Short-Run Capital Mobility, Long-Run Capital Mobility,
Business Cycle, Cointegration, Unit Root, Stationary
Series, Frequency Domain Analysis, Spectral Analysis,
Zero- Frequency, Coherence, Gain, Phase, Newly
Constructed Time Series, Historical Time Series,
Cyclical, Intertemporal Budget Constraint
JEL: F21 F32 F41 E21 E22
Date: 2005-05-12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0505006&r=all
306. Hellenic Export Prices and European Monetary Integration,
1970- 1995.
Theodoros V. Stamatopoulos (TEI of Crete & University of
Piraeus, Greece. C.E.F.I. Universite d'Aix Marseille II)
We aim to explain the variability of the Hellenic Export Index
Unit Value, during the period 1970-1995. The Hellenic index of
unit labour cost, an effective index of unit value of European
competitors’ exports and the effective exchange rate of the
Greek Drachma (GRD) are used as explanatory variables, suggested
by the literature and much more by the consequences of the
Hellenic accession into the EEC. We found evidence with regards
to the sample’s split in the accession’s year 1981 and the
equilibrium relationship between Hellenic export prices and
exchange rate of GRD during the second subperiod. In addition, in
spite of the small size of the Hellenic economy we detected the
Greek exporters’ discreet pricing policy, for the first sub-
period, this was possible due to the diversification of their
destination markets and for the second, the sliding rate policy
of the Bank of Greece. The latter policy combined with the
European competitors’ pricing policy re-established their
margins, with at the most a year lag, whenever the Hellenic
labour cost was increased.
Keywords: Decomposition Approach; Export Prices Equations;
Discreet Pricing Policy; Inconsistent triad; European
Monetary Integration; Integration and Co-integration
Analysis.
JEL: F3 F4
Date: 2005-05-12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0505007&r=all
307. European football: Back to the 1950s
Loek Groot (Utrecht School of Economics)
The point of departure in this paper is the diagnosis of Hoehn
and Szymanski (1999) that the interlocking system of European
football creates an unbalanced system. To secure competitive
balance at both the European and the national level, they
recommend to reform European football into a closed superleague
American-style. In this paper I argue for a radically different
route. Instead of giving up dominant traditions of European
football, like promotion-relegation and the interlocking system,
it is possible to maintain the defining characteristics of
European football by returning to the state of affairs in the
1950s, before the commercialisation of football through the media
started. This requires the free of charge distribution of
football matches on TV, which can be justified by standard
economic welfare analysis.
Keywords: interlocking system; of European football;
commercialization; Americanization; broadcasting rights
JEL: D42 D60 L41 L83
Date: 2005-05-12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpio:0505003&r=all
308. Survival in a Declining Industry: The Case of Baseball Cards
Arthur Zillante (ICES, George Mason University)
The baseball card industry provides a case study of survival in
a declining industry. The case study shows how manufacturers have
varied their strategic behavior in response to changes that have
occurred within the industry in the last 20 years. This is in
stark contrast to most of the existing theoretical literature on
behavior in declining industries, which assumes that behavior
remains constant throughout the decline phase of an industry.
Keywords: Declining industry, case study, baseball cards
JEL: L
Date: 2005-05-12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpio:0505004&r=all
309. FDI in India
Vidya Mahambare (Cardiff Business School)
V. N. Balasubramanyam (Lancaster University)
JEL: F1 F2
Date: 2005-05-09
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0505007&r=all
310. Is More Mobility Good? Firm Mobility and the Low Wage-Low
Productivity Trap
Stephanie Seguino
This paper explores the possibility that unregulated FDI flows
are causally implicated in the decline in labor productivity
growth in semi- industrialized economies. These effects are
hypothesized to operate through the negative impact of firm
mobility on worker bargaining power and thus affecting wages.
Downward pressure on wages can reduce the pressure on firms to
raise productivity in defense of profits, contributing to a low
wage–low productivity trap. This paper presents empirical
evidence, based on panel data fixed effects and GMM estimation
for 37 semi-industrialized economies, that supports the causal
link between increased firm mobility and lower wages, as well as
slower productivity growth over the period 1970–2000.
Keywords: Foreign direct investment, productivity, capital
mobility.
JEL: F2 F16 O3
Date: 2005-05-10
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0505008&r=all
311. Export Promotion Policies and the Crowding Out Effect in
Developing Countries
Gairuzazmi Ghani (University of Southern California)
Critics of export promotion policies have pointed to the fallacy
of composition hypothesis, where what is viable for one small
country acting in isolation may not be viable when pursued by a
group of countries simultaneously. This paper analyzes the
crowding out effect of the fallacy of composition- whether
developing countries that specialize in the export of
manufactured products compete and crowd out each other's exports.
Panel estimates suggest that developing countries are not
crowding out each other exports. Instead, developing countries
are crowding out the Western European countries' exports of
manufactured products.
Keywords: Fallacy of Composition, Crowding Out Effect,
Immiserizing Growth
JEL: F43 F42 O5
Date: 2005-05-12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0505009&r=all
312. O Trabalho Infantil na Ukrania
Manuela Magalhaes
As criancas fazem parte da vida economica das sociedades. A
evidencia historica mostra que o contributo das criancas para
o rendimento das familias e consistentemente significativo. O
trabalho infantil e, ainda nos dias de hoje, um fenomeno
expressivo, quer nas sociedades menos desenvolvidas, quer nas
mais desenvolvidas. Este estudo analisa os factores determinantes
na decisao das familias, relativamente a afectacao do tempo
das criancas entre a escola; a escola e o trabalho, o trabalho
ou o lazer. O modelo logit multinomial e o modelo utilizado para
identificar as caracteristicas pessoais, familiares, locais e
sazonais que influenciam a decisao das familias Ukranianas. Os
resultados mostram que todos estes factores sao considerados
pelas familias nas suas decisoes. Assim, politicas que
promovam o desenvolvimento economico, a reducao do agregado
familiar e alternativas a escola no terceiro trimestre, podem
contribuir significativamente para a reducao do trabalho
infantil na Ukrania
Keywords: Trabalho Infantil, Logit Multinomial
JEL: J
Date: 2005-05-12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpla:0505008&r=all
313. Modeling the Choice of Telecommuting 2: A Case of the
Preferred Impossible Alternative
Patricia Mokhtarian (University of California, Davis)
Ilan Salomon (Hebrew University)
A conceptual model of the choice to telecommute was advanced in
an earlier paper (Mokhtarian and Salomon, 1994). In this paper,
we present empirical data from a non-representative sample of 628
City of San Diego employees on key variables and relationships in
that model. The relationships among possibility, preference, and
choice are examined. A key finding is the existence of a large
group of people (57% of the sample) for whom telecommuting is a
Preferred Impossible Alternative. Dichotomous and continuous
constraints are distinguished, and three dichotomous constraints
are defined. Lack of awareness is active for 4%, job
unsuitability for 44%, and manager disapproval for 51% of the
sample. For 68% of the sample, at least one of these constraints
is active. Even among those for whom none of the dichotomous
constraints is in force, most people do not choose telecommuting
due to the presence of active continuous constraints. For only
11% of the entire sample, telecommuting is possible, preferred,
and chosen. The potential impacts of self-selection bias are
estimated, and sampling bias is qualitatively assessed. This
analysis provides a crude but useful estimate of the potential of
telecommuting in the population, and more specifically, the
relative share of potential telecommuters who are prevented by
key dichotomous constraints from choosing that option.
Keywords: telecommuting, teleworking
JEL: J
Date: 2005-05-12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpla:0505009&r=all
314. Modeling the Choice of Telecommuting 3: Identifying the
Choice Set and Estimating Binary Choice Models for
Technology-Based Alternatives
Patricia Mokhtarian (University of California, Davis)
Ilan Salomon (University of California, Davis)
Previous papers in this series have presented a conceptual model
of the individual decision to telecommute and explored
relationships among constraints, preference, and choice. A
related paper has developed a binary model of the preference for
home-based telecommuting. Noting that there is a wide gap between
preferring to telecommute (88% of the sample) and actually
telecommuting (13%), this paper develops binary logit models of
telecommuting adoption. Two approaches to dealing with
constraints are compared: incorporating them directly into the
utility function, and using them to define the choice set. Models
using the first approach appear to be statistically superior in
this analysis, explaining 63-64% of the information in the data.
Variables significant to choice include those relating to work
and travel drives, and awareness, manager support, job
suitability, technology, and discipline constraints. The best
model was used to analyze the impact of relaxing three key
constraints on the 355 people in the sample for whom
telecommuting was previously identified to be a Preferred
Impossible Alternative. When unawareness, lack of manager support,
and job unsuitability constraints are relaxed, 28% of the people
in the PIA category would be expected to adopt telecommuting. The
importance of behavioral models to accurately forecasting
telecommuting adoption is emphasized and is suggested to have
wider implications for predicting technology-based activity
changes.
Keywords: telecommuting, teleworking, discrete choice, choice set
JEL: J
Date: 2005-05-12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpla:0505010&r=all
315. UK Monetary Policy under Inflation Forecast Targeting: Is
evidence of Asymmetry an Illusion?
Naveen Srinivasan (Cardiff Business School)
Vidya Mahambare (Cardiff Business School)
M Ramachandran (Institute for Social & Economic Change)
This paper examines how the Bank of England conducts monetary
policy in practice and assesses whether the pursued policy is
consistent with its mandate. Our empirical results using
quarterly as well as monthly ex post (or model generated)
forecast suggest that monetary policy in the UK can be
characterised by a nonlinear policy reaction function.
Specifically, the Bank has tended to adjust its policy instrument
when model generated inflation forecast is above its inflation
target, but the response has been much less vigorous when it has
been below the target. These results are however, not robust to
the use of the Bank’s own ex ante forecasts which we argue is a
better way of assessing its objectives. Overall this paper has
sought to demonstrate that the way to identify and indeed to
quantify the policy authorities’ objectives is to examine their
ex ante forecasts.
JEL: E52 E58
Date: 2005-05-09
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0505005&r=all
316. Banking Sector Crises and Related New Regulations in Turkey
Aykut Kibritcioglu (Ankara University)
In Turkey, the financial sector is traditionally dominated by
banking activities, and the banking sector experienced several
systemic crises since late 1970s. This paper reviews and
summarizes the major banking sector problems in the country. It
also outlines the latest regulations and reform attempts in
Turkey, with particular reference to Turkey's future EU
membership.
Keywords: Banking sector, financial fragility, banking crises,
banking regulations, Turkey
JEL: E44 G21
Date: 2005-05-11
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0505006&r=all
317. Menu Costs, Posted Prices, and Multiproduct Retailers
Shantanu Dutta (University of Southern California)
Mark Bergen (University of Minnesota)
Daniel Levy (Emory University)
Robert Venable (Robert W. Baird, Co.)
We use a unique store-level data set to directly measure menu
costs and to study the price change process at a large U.S.
drugstore chain. We compare and contrast the magnitude of these
measures with similar measures from 4 large U.S. supermarket
chains. We find that (1) the actual magnitude of menu costs as a
share of revenues, (2) menu costs per price change, (3) the
frequent use of promotional pricing, and (4) the use of weekly
pricing rules, are similar across both retail formats. Given that
the main common features of these two types of retail formats are
that (i) they both use posted prices, and (ii) both are
multiproduct retailers selling a large number of products, our
findings suggest that the magnitude of the menu cost components
we measure, and the price change practices we document, may be
generalizable across retail formats with these two features.
Keywords: Menu Cost, Posted Prices, Multiproduct Retailer, Price
Rigidity, Sticky Prices, Cost of Price Adjustment, Time
Dependent Pricing
JEL: E31 E12
Date: 2005-05-12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0505007&r=all
318. Sigma-Convergence Versus Beta-Convergence: Evidence from U.
S. County-Level Data
Andrew Young (Emory University)
Matthew Higgins (Emory University)
Daniel Levy (Bar-Ilan University)
In this paper we outline (i) why o-convergence may not
accompany a- convergence, (ii)cite evidence of a-convergence in
the U.S., (iii) and use USA county-level data containing over 3,
000 cross-sectional observations to demonstrate that o-
convergence does not hold across the U.S., or within the vast
majority of the individual U.S. states.
Keywords: Economic Growth, Convergence, o-convergence, sigma
convergence, a-convergence, beta convergence, US
County Level Data
JEL: O40 O11 O18 R11
Date: 2005-05-12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0505008&r=all
319. Growth and Convergence across the US: Evidence from County-
Level Data
Matthew Higgins (Georgia State University)
Daniel Levy (Bar- Ilan University)
Andrew Young (University of Mississippi)
We use county data with 3,058 observations to study growth and
convergence in the US. We assess the effect of 40 conditioning
variables on the counties’ balanced growth paths. Using OLS and
3SLS-IV, the later yielding consistent estimates, we report
estimates for the full sample and for metro, non-metro, and five
regional samples. We find that (1) OLS yields convergence rates
around 2 percent, but 3SLS yields 6–8 percent; (2) convergence
rates vary across the U.S. E.g., Southern counties converge 2?
times faster than Northeastern counties; (3) government size at
all levels (federal, state and local) is negatively correlated
with growth; (4) the relation between educational attainment and
growth is nonlinear; and (5) large finance, insurance and real
estate industry, and entertainment industry is positively
correlated with growth but the population share employed in
education is negatively correlated with growth.
Keywords: Economic Growth, Convergence, Conditional Convergence,
County- Level Data, 3SLS Instrumental Variables
Estimate, Balanced Growth Path, Public Sector, Industry
Composition, Educational Attainment
JEL: O40 O11 O18 O51 R11 H50 H70
Date: 2005-05-12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0505009&r=all
320. On Stock Market Dynamics through Ultrametricity of Minimum
Spanning Tree
Hokky Situngkir (Bandung Fe Institute)
Yohanes Surya (Surya Research International)
We analyze the evolving price °uctuations by using ultrametric
distance of minimally spanning ?nancial tree of stocks traded in
Jakarta Stock Exchange 2000-2004. Ultrametricity is derived from
transformation of correlation coe±cients into the distances
among stocks. Our analysis evaluates the performance of ups and
downs of stock prices and discovers the evolution towards the
?nancial and economic stabilization in Indonesia. This is partly
recognized by mapping the hierarchical trees upon the realization
of liquid and illiquid stocks. We remind that the methodology is
useful in two terms: the evaluation of spectral market movements
and intuitively understanding for portfolio management purposes.
Keywords: ultrametricity, minimum spanning tree, liquidity,
Jakarta Stock Exchange.
JEL: E
Date: 2005-05-12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0505010&r=all
321. Rent-seeking with scarce talent: a model of preemptive
hiring
Sami Dakhlia (University of Alabama)
Paul Pecorino (University of Alabama)
In the standard model of a rent-seeking contest, firms optimally
employ resources in an attempt to win the contest and obtain the
rent. Typically, it is assumed that these resources may be hired
at any desired level at some fixed, exogenous per-unit cost. In
many real-world rent-seeking contests, however, these resources
consist of scarce, talented individuals. We model a rentseeking
contest in which the talent available for employment is scarce
and in which the rent obtained from winning the contest may also
differ from participant to participant. Talent scarcity leads to
preemptive hiring by the player receiving the larger rent. In the
traditional analysis, as the size of the rents converges, the
levels of effort and the probability of winning also converge. By
contrast, when talent is scarce, the player receiving the larger
rent hires it all and wins the contest with probability 1. This
is true even if the difference in rents is small. Interestingly,
this outcome may be Pareto-inferior to the outcome associated
with the interior Nash equilibrium. We also characterize the
condition under which talent ceases to be scarce. For a simple
rentseeking game, this requires at least 50% more talent than is
employed at the interior Nash equilibrium.
Keywords: rent-seeking, scarce talent, labor market, lobbying,
preemptive hiring
JEL: D44 D72 J4
Date: 2005-05-12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpmi:0505002&r=all
322. The Role of R&D Technology in Asymmetric Research Joint
Ventures
Sami Dakhlia (University of Alabama)
Flavio M. Menezes (Australian National University & EPGE/FGV)
Akram Temimi (University of Alabama)
We characterize asymmetric equilibria in two-stage process
innovation games and show that they are prevalent in the
different models of R&D technology considered in the literature.
Indeed, cooperation in R&D may be accompanied by high
concentration in the product market. We show that while such an
increase may be profitable, it may be socially inefficient.
Keywords: Research and Development, Research Joint Ventures,
Process Innovation Games
JEL: D43 L1 O32
Date: 2005-05-12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpmi:0505003&r=all
323. Shattering the Myth of Costless Price Changes: Emerging
Perspectives on Dynamic Pricing
Mark Bergen (University of Minnesota)
Mark Ritson (London Business School)
Shantanu Dutta (University of Sourthern California)
Daniel Levy (Bar-Ilan University)
Mark Zbaracki (University of Pennsylvania)
In this paper we argue that pricing is all about price changes,
and that the costs of price changes are often simultaneously
subtle and substantial. We discuss a framework to deal with the
dynamics of changing prices. This framework incorporates customer
interpretations of price changes, an awareness of the
organizational costs of price changes, investments in future
pricing processes, and an understanding of the role that supply
chains play in price change strategy. The framework can be used
at the tactical level to improve the specific price changes
chosen and made, at the managerial level to decide whether or not
to make a particular price change at all, and at the strategic
level to determine what price adjustment processes should be
invested in to improve pricing effectiveness in the future.
Keywords: Menu Cost, Myth, Costly Price Change, Cost of Price
Adjustment, Dynamic Pricing, Customer Cost of Price
Adjustment, Organizational Cost of Price Adjustment,
Managerial Cost of Price Adjustment, Supply Chain,
Investment in Pricing Processes, Price Change Tactic,
Price Change Strategy, Pricing Tactics, Pricing
Strategy, Pricing Effectiveness
JEL: M31 M10 M20 L11 L16 E31 D40 D20
Date: 2005-05-12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpot:0505006&r=all
324. Agenda Networks and Farsightedly Stable Agenda Formation
Sami Dakhlia (University of Alabama)
Frank H. Page Jr. (University of Alabama)
We model the agenda formation process as a network. In an agenda
network, nodes represent agendas while arcs represent coalition
preferences over agendas and coalitional moves from one agenda to
another. We show that all agenda networks have agenda nodes which
are farsightedly consistent. These nodes represent agendas which
are likely to emerge and persist if agents behave farsightedly in
forming agendas. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach by
computing the farsightedly consistent agendas for three examples
of agenda networks.
Keywords: directed networks, farsighted stability
JEL: D7
Date: 2005-05-12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwppe:0505003&r=all
325. Central Place Theory
Marcus Berliant (Washington University in St. Louis)
This is a short dictionary entry. Central place theory is a
descriptive theory of market area in a spatial context. Its
definition, history, and relation to modern microeconomic theory
are provided.
Keywords: Market Area, City Hierarchy, Hexagonal Structure,
Spatial General Equilibrium Theory, Transport Cost,
Increasing Returns to Scale
JEL: R12
Date: 2005-05-12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0505001&r=all
326. The International Drivers of Domestic Airline Mergers in
Twenty Nations: Integrating Industrial Organization and
International Business
Joseph A. Clougherty
The domestic airline merger phenomenon of the late 1980s and
early 1990s sparked a great deal of Industrial Organization (IO)
literature; yet, that literature neglected non-US domestic
mergers and potential for international competitive gains. Using
an International Business perspective to complement an IO
analysis, I argue that factoring international competitive
incentives helps explain domestic airline merger activity. A
Cournot model of airline competition illustrates that domestic
mergers, via enhanced domestic networks and reduced domestic
competition, generate international competitive gains. Further,
empirical tests - using a structural-equations approach on panel
data covering international city-pair market segments - support
domestic mergers improving international competitiveness.
ZUSAMMENFASSUNG - (Was die inlandischen Fluglinien in 20
Landern zur Fusion getrieben hat. Eine integrierte
industrieokonomische und betriebswirtschaftliche Analyse des
internationalen Wettbewerbs)
In der Industrieokonomik hat
das Phanomen von Fusionen inlandischer Fluggesellschaften in
den spaten 1980er und fruhen 1990er Jahren viel
wissenschaftliche Literatur angeregt. Die einschlagigen
Forschungsarbeiten behandeln jedoch ausschlie?lich inlandische
Fusionen in den U.S.A. und lassen damit den Aspekt des
internationalen Wettbewerbs au?er Acht. In dieser Untersuchung,
die die industrieokonomische Analyse um die Perspektive der
internationalen Betriebswirtschaft erganzt, wird gezeigt, dass
die Anreize des internationalen Wettbewerb in das
Erklarungsmodell fur nationale Fusionen von Fluglinien
integriert werden konnen. Anhand eines Cournot-Modells des
Wettbewerbs zwischen Fluggesellschaften kann dargelegt werden,
wie Fusionen zu einem erweiterten inlandischen Netz an
Flugverbindungen und verminderten Konkurrenzdruck im Inland
fuhren und so die Position der fusionierten Fluglinie im
internationalen Wettbewerb starken. Dieses Ergebnis wird von
empirischen Tests, die eine Struckturvergleichsmethode fur
Paneldaten uber einen internationalen Stadtevergleich der
Marktsegmente verwenden, gestutzt.
Keywords: airline-mergers, imperfect-competition, international-
determinants
JEL: L13 F14 L93
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wzb:wzebiv:spii2005-06&r=all
327. Merger Failures
Albert Banal-Estanol
Jo Seldeslachts
This paper proposes an explanation as to why some mergers fail,
based on the interaction between the pre-merger gathering of
information and the postmerger integration processes. Rational
managers acting in the interest of shareholders may still lead
their firms into unsuccessfully integrated companies. Firms may
agree to merge and may abstain from putting forth integration
efforts, counting on the partners to adapt. We explain why
mergers among partners with closer corporate cultures can have a
lower success rate and why failures should be more frequent
during economic booms, consistent with the empirical evidence.
Our setup is a global game (integration process) in which players
decide whether to participate (merger decision). We show that
private signals need to be noisy enough in order to ensure
equilibrium uniqueness.
ZUSAMMENFASSUNG - (
Gescheiterte Fusionen)
In dieser Arbeit wird eine Erklarung
vorgestellt fur das Scheitern von Fusionen. Sie beruht auf einem
Modell, das das Verhalten der fusionierenden Firmen vor der
Fusion, wenn Erkundungen uber den Partner eingeholt werden, und
nach der Fusion, wenn sich die Unternehmensteile integrieren
mussen, in den Mittelpunkt stellt. Manager konnen nach diesem
Modell durch rationales Verhalten die fusionierte Firma in
Verluste und schlechte Aktienwerte fuhren, obwohl sie eigentlich
das Interesse der Aktionare im Blick haben. Die Firmen stimmen
einer Fusion zu, halten sich aber beim Voranbringen der
Integrationsbemuhungen zuruck, da sie darauf zahlen, dass sich
die Partner anpassen. Wir erklaren, warum Fusionen zwischen
Partnern mit ahnlichen Unternehmenskulturen eine geringere
Erfolgsrate haben konnen und warum Misserfolge haufiger
wahrend eines wirtschaftlichen Booms auftreten. Dies ist
konsistent mit empirischen Ergebnissen. Unser Ausgangspunkt ist
ein globales Spiel, in dem der Integrationsprozess dargestellt
wird und die Spieler entscheiden, ob sie sich am Spiel beteiligen,
d.h. der Fusion zustimmen. Wir zeigen, dass ein eindeutiges
Gleichgewicht nur garantiert werden kann, wenn die privaten
Informationen der fusionierenden Firmen, die dem Fusionspartner
nicht bekannt sind, genugend unprazise sind.
Keywords: mergers, synergies, information, uncertainty,
organizational culture.
JEL: D74 D82 L20 M14
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wzb:wzebiv:spii2005-09&r=all
328. Price-setting behaviour in Belgium: what can be learned
from an ad hoc survey ?
Luc Aucremanne (National Bank of Belgium, Research
Department)
Martine Druant (National Bank of Belgium, Research
Department)
This paper reports the results of an ad hoc survey on price-
setting behaviour conducted in February 2004 among 2,000 Belgian
firms. The reported results clearly deviate from a situation of
perfect competition and show that firms have some market power.
Pricing-to-market is applied by a majority of industrial firms.
Prices are rather sticky. The average duration between two
consecutive price reviews is 10 months, whereas it amounts to 13
months between two consecutive price changes. Most firms adopt
time-dependent price-reviewing under normal circumstances.
However, when specific events occur, the majority will adopt a
state-dependent behaviour. Evidence is found in favour of both
nominal (mainly implicit and explicit contracts) and real
rigidities (including flat marginal costs and counter-cyclical
movements in desired mark-ups). The survey results point to a non-
negligible degree of non-optimal price-setting.
Keywords: price-setting behaviour, price rigidity, nominal
rigidity, real rigidity, survey, time-dependent pricing,
state-dependent pricing, pricing-to-market
JEL: D40 E31 L11
Date: 2005-03
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200503-1&r=all
329. Time-dependent versus State-dependent Pricing: A Panel Data
Approach to the Determinants of Belgian Consumer Price
Changes
Luc Aucremanne (National Bank of Belgium, Research
Department)
Emmanuel Dhyne (National Bank of Belgium, Research
Department)
Using Logistic Normal regressions, we model the price-setting
behaviour for a large sample of Belgian consumer prices over the
January 1989 - January 2001 period. Our results indicate that
time-dependent features are very important, particularly an
infinite mixture of Calvo pricing rules and truncation at
specific horizons. Truncation is mainly a characteristic of
pricing in the service sector where it mostly takes the form of
annual Taylor contracts typically renewed at the end of December.
Several other variables, including some that can be considered as
state variables, are also found to be statistically significant.
This is particularly so for accumulated sectoral inflation since
the last price change. Once heterogeneity and the role of
accumulated inflation are acknowledged, hazard functions become
mildly upward-sloping, even in a low inflation regime. The
contribution of the state-dependent variables to the pseudo-R?
of our equations is, however, not particularly important.
Keywords: consumer prices, time-dependent pricing, state-
dependent pricing, Calvo model, Truncated Calvo model,
Taylor contracts
JEL: C23 C25 D40 E31
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200504-1&r=all
330. Discounting and policy options for sustainable management
of the Murray-Darling River System
John Quiggin (Department of Economics, University of
Queensland)
Management of the Murray-Darling river system involves a large
number of users with imprecisely defined rights, and an aggregate
rate of resource use that is environmentally unsustainable. One
possible policy response is to make formal or informal contracts
with users, under which users receive current benefits in return
for a commitment to forgo usage rights in future. In this paper,
this issue is explored with specific reference to the possibility
of repurchasing the renewal rights for irrigation licenses.
Keywords: Discounting, property rights, Murray-Darling
JEL: Q2
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:murray:m04_1&r=all
331. Water Rights for Variable Supplies
John Quiggin (Department of Economics, University of
Queensland)
John Freebairn (University of Melbourne)
The relative merits of different property right systems to
allocate water among different extractive uses where variability
of supply is important are evaluated. Three systems of property
rights are considered. In the first, variable supply is dealt
with through the use of water rights defined as shares of the
total quantity available. In the second, there are two types of
water rights, one for water with a high security of supply and
the other a low-security right for the residual supply. The third
is a system of state-contingent claims. With zero transaction
costs, all systems are efficient. In the realistic situation
where transaction costs matter, the state-contingent claims
system is globally optimal, and the system with high-security and
low-security rights is preferable to the system with share
allocations.
Keywords: Uncertainty, property rights, Murray-Darling
JEL: D8 Q2
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:murray:m04_2&r=all
332. Sustainable Management of the Great Artesian Basin: an
analysis based on Environmental Economics and Law
John Quiggin (Department of Economics, University of
Queensland)
Poh-Ling Tan (Queensland University of Technology)
The purpose of this article is to provide a framework for
discussion of the current policy issues surrounding management of
the Great Artesian Basin, with reference to the historical
development of existing legislation and institutions. Of
particular interest is the applicability of lessons learned from
the debate over management of the Murray-Darling Basin.
Keywords: property rights, sustainable management
JEL: Q2
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:murray:m04_3&r=all
333. Optimal Timber Utilisation Strategies for Wik People on
Cape York Peninsula
Tyron Venn (Risk and Sustainable Management Group,
University of Queensland)
A forestry industry based on the native Darwin stringybark
forests of Cape York Peninsula has been identified as a potential
generator of employment and income for Wik people. Information
appropriate for examining potential Wik timber utilisation
strategies is scarce, necessitating primary data collection
activities in north Queensland. A mixed-integer, single-period
goal program is developed to produce a suite of ‘optimal’
timber utilisation strategies from the perspective of Wik people.
Optimal forestry strategies predicted by the goal programming
model are financially viable and suggest, in general, that
relatively low-technology forestry activities are likely to best
satisfy Wik forestry objectives
JEL: L73
Date: 2004-08
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:murray:m04_4&r=all
334. Portable Sawmilling Costs for Landholders in Western
Queensland
Tyron Venn (Risk and Sustainable Management Group,
University of Queensland)
Robbie McGavin (NA)
William W. Leggate (NA)
Portable sawmilling trials with Acacia aneura (mulga) and A.
cambagei (gidgee) have been undertaken to estimate the private
landholder costs associated with small-scale timber production
from woodlands in western Queensland, Australia. A time study of
harvesting and milling operations facilitated estimation of
landholder labour input requirements. The scarcity and small size
of millable logs, coupled with the prevalence of timber defects,
make harvesting and portable sawmilling of western Queensland
acacias an expensive undertaking for landholders. The cost of
producing sawn timber that meets the High Feature (HF) grade of
Australian Standard AS2796 is estimated at between A$3,000-m3 and
A$3,400/m3 of HF timber.
JEL: L73
Date: 2004-08
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:murray:m04_5&r=all
335. Designing, Developing and Testing Financial Models for Non-
industrial Private Forestry
Steve Harrison (University of Queensland)
John Herbohn (University of Queensland)
Nick Emtage (University of Queensland)
Tyron Venn (Risk and Sustainable Management Group,
University of Queensland)
This paper describes experiences in the development and testing
of three distinct financial models to support farm forestry
decisions involving non-traditional tree species in northern
Australia and in the Philippines. A variety of options were
examined with respect to model design, yield prediction,
computing platform, forestry performance criteria and other
features. Two of the models focus on the forestry enterprise in
isolation, while the third evaluates forestry within the context
of the overall farm business. It is found that choice of model
design depends on the particular type of application intended and
availability of financial data for this application. Some
complementarities were gained in replicating features when
progressing from one model to the next. Model construction and
testing were challenging tasks requiring considerable funds and
for two of the models proceeding over a number of years.
Validation involved the gradual gaining of confidence in a model
as it progressed through various versions. For the more complex
models, greater effort in development of the user interface was
found to be warranted. The models have proved more suitable for
use by extension agents than individual landholders. Even with
major resource inputs into model development, a number of
desirable additional features can be identified.
JEL: L73
Date: 2004-08
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:murray:m04_6&r=all
336. A Wik Forestry Industry on Cape York Peninsula: Visions and
Realities
Tyron Venn (Risk and Sustainable Management Group,
University of Queensland)
The large, unutilised native forest timber resource on
traditional Wik land on Cape York Peninsula, Australia, could be
managed for timber production to contribute to Wik socio-economic
objectives. Wik elders have a set of forestry objectives and
envisage that these will be best achieved by a timber industry
selling unprocessed logs and woodchips. On the other hand,
Balkanu Cape York Development Corporation, an indigenous
community development organisation, anticipate that an industry
utilising high-technology equipment and producing dried and
dressed finished products including strip-flooring will best
satisfy Wik forestry objectives. The Wilderness Society envisages
small-scale, Ocommunity developmentO activities such as
portable sawmilling and niche market furniture manufacture as
being appropriate types of forestry activities on Wik land. Goal
programming analysis of forest use opportunities indicates that
Wik forestry objectives are unlikely to be best satisfied by
adopting the timber utilisation opportunities espoused by any one
of the stakeholders.
JEL: L73
Date: 2004-11
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:murray:m04_7&r=all
337. Modelling basin level allocation of water in the Murray
Darling Basin in a world of uncertainty
David Adamson (Risk and Sustainable Management Group,
University of Queensland)
Thilak Mallawaarachchi (Risk and Sustainable Management
Group, University of Queensland)
John Quiggin (Risk & Sustainable Management Group, School of
Economics, University of Queensland)
The Murray-Darling Basin comprises over 1 million km2; it lies
within four states and one territory; and over 12, 800 GL of
irrigation water is used to produce over 40% of the nation's
gross value of agricultural production. This production is used
by a diverse collection of some-times mutually exclusive
commodities (e.g. pasture; stone fruit; grapes; cotton and field
crops). The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic
and policy uncertainty. Variable inflows mean that water property
rights do not provide a guaranteed supply. With increasing public
scrutiny and environmental issues facing irrigators, greater
pressure is being placed on this finite resource. The uncertainty
of the water supply, water quality (salinity), combined with
where water is utilised, while attempting to maximising return
for investment makes for an interesting research field. The
utilisation and comparison of a GAMS and Excel based modelling
approach has been used to ask: where should we allocate water?;
amongst what commodities?; and how does this affect both the
quantity of water and the quality of water along the Murray-
Darling river system?
Keywords: Water, Uncertainty, Salinity, GAMS v EXCEL &
Optimisation
JEL: Q25
Date: 2005-02
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:murray:m05_1&r=all
338. Commercial Forestry: An Economic Development Opportunity
Consistent with the Property Rights of Wik People to Natural
Resources
Tyron Venn (Risk and Sustainable Management Group,
University of Queensland)
Wik people on Cape York Peninsula, Queensland, aspire to
economic independence. Commercial processing of native forest
timbers is seen by Wik people as a culturally appropriate engine
for economic development; however, much uncertainty surrounds
their property rights to native forest timber. The granting of
native title over some traditional Wik land in 2000 and 2004 was
seen as a coup by Wik people, but some economists have argued
that the inalienable and communal nature of native title is an
obstacle to development in indigenous communities. An assessment
of Wik property rights to timber resources reveals that a
commercial forestry industry is consistent with their rights. In
comparison with social and cultural factors, the inalienable and
communal characteristics of native title are second-order
development constraints for Wik people. \
Keywords: native title, native forest management, Aurukun
community, Cape York Peninsula.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:murray:m05_2&r=all
339. The precautionary principle in environmental policy and the
theory of choice under uncertainty
John Quiggin (Risk & Sustainable Management Group, School of
Economics, University of Queensland)
The precautionary principle, presented as a guide to
environmental policy decisions in the presence of uncertainty,
has been the subject of vigorous debate. However, the has
generally not been discussed in relation to formal theories of
choice under uncertainty developed as generalizations of the
expected utility model. In this paper, it is argued that a formal
basis for the precautionary principle may be found in an
incompleteness hypothesis regarding formal models of choice under
uncertainty. The incompleteness hypothesis states that estimates
derived from formal models of choice under uncertainty will
generally be over-optimistic and that the errors will be greater,
the less well-understood is the problem in question.
Keywords: precautionary principle, generalized expected utility
theory
JEL: D81 Q2
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:murray:m05_3&r=all
340. Risk and water management in the Murray-Darling Basin
John Quiggin (Risk & Sustainable Management Group, School of
Economics, University of Queensland)
Most settled parts of Australia, notably including the Murray-
Darling Basin, experience low and highly variable rainfall levels.
Both medium-term cycles such as the Southern Oscillation and
longer term climate change contribute uncertainty in additional
to that arising from seasonal fluctuations. It follows that
uncertainty is an inherent feature of water management in
Australia. In addition, the policy process itself generates
uncertainty. As new knowledge about water systems emerges and new
demands, such as increased concerns about environmental flows,
arise, policies must adjust. The adjustment process inevitably
creates uncertainty for both new and existing water users. It
follows that the allocation of risk and uncertainty is a crucial
problem in the design of institutions for water management in
Australia.
JEL: D81 Q25
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:murray:m05_4&r=all
341. Information and the Risk-Averse Firm
Robert G. Chambers (Dept of Agricultural and Resource
Economics, University of Maryland, College Park)
John Quiggin (Department of Economics, University of
Queensland)
This paper has two goals. First,we demonstrate that standard
arguments and methods from production and duality analysis can be
used to provide a comprehensive and general treatment of the
value of information for a risk-averse firm with expected-utility
linear-in-probabilities) preferences and a general stochastic
technology. Second, we place bounds on the value of information
for a risk-averse firm and relate these bounds to characteristics
of the technology and the producer's preferences. A particularly
striking observation that emerges from this representation is
that the most common representation of production uncertainty
corresponds to a polar case that trivializes the role that
information can play in economic decisionmaking under risk.
Keywords: state-contingent production, value of information
JEL: D8
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:riskun:r03_2&r=all
342. Narrowing the No-Arbitrage Bounds
Robert G. Chambers (Dept of Agricultural and Resource
Economics, University of Maryland, College Park)
John Quiggin (Department of Economics, University of
Queensland)
The broadness of no-arbitrage bounds on asset prices has led to
a number of suggestions on how to narrow them. This paper points
out that another, apparently unexploited, opportunity exists for
narrowing the no-arbitrage bounds, using information on the
production technology. The key analytic concept is that of the
derivative-cost function, which is used to define a notion of
arbitrage that encompasses both the basis assets and stochastic
production opportunities.
Keywords: arbitrage, state-contingent production
JEL: D81 G12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:riskun:r03_3&r=all
343. Output Price Subsidies in a Stochastic World
Robert G. Chambers (Dept of Agricultural and Resource
Economics, University of Maryland, College Park)
John Quiggin (Department of Economics, University of
Queensland)
This paper develops an analytically tractable approach to the
comparative statics of output subsidies for firms, with monotonic
preferences over costs and returns, that face price and
production uncertainty. We derive comparative static results for
input demand and output supply.
Keywords: state-contingent production, price subsides
JEL: D81 Q15
Date: 2004-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:riskun:r04_1&r=all
344. Supermodularity and Risk Aversion
John Quiggin (Department of Economics, University of
Queensland)
Robert G. Chambers (Dept of Agricultural and Resource
Economics, University of Maryland, College Park)
In this paper, we consider the relationship between
supermodularity and risk aversion. We show that supermodularity
of the certainty equivalent implies that the certainty equivalent
of any random variable is less than its mean. We also derive
conditions under which supermodularity of the certainty
equivalent is equivalent to aversion to mean-preserving spreads
in the sense of Rothschild and Stiglitz.
Keywords: risk aversion, Schur concavity, supermodularity
JEL: D81
Date: 2004-03
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:riskun:r04_2&r=all
345. Linear-Risk-Tolerant, Invariant Risk Preferences
Robert G. Chambers (Dept of Agricultural and Resource
Economics, University of Maryland, College Park)
John Quiggin (Department of Economics, University of
Queensland)
Quiggin and Chambers have introduced the notion of invariant
preferences, and shown that the only invariant expected-utility
functionals are those associated with a quadratic utility
function. This note identifies the class of preferences which
simultaneously satisfy invariance, two-fund portfolio separation,
and linear risk tolerance to determine if there exist meaningful
classes of preferences, which inherit much of the quadratic
family's theoretical and empirical tractability, but do not
necessarily inherit its more unattractive properties when
regarded as preferences over wealth.
Keywords: invariance
JEL: D81
Date: 2004-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:riskun:r04_3&r=all
346. Increasing Uncertainty: A Definition
Simon Grant (Department of Economics, Rice University)
John Quiggin (Department of Economics, University of
Queensland)
We present a definition of increasing uncertainty, in which an
elementary increase in the uncertainty of any act corresponds to
the addition of an `elementary bet' that increases consumption by
a fixed amount in (relatively) `good' states and decreases
consumption by a fixed (and possibly different) amount in (
relatively) `bad' states. This definition naturally gives rise to
a dual definition of comparative aversion to uncertainty. We
characterize this definition for a popular class of generalized
models of choice under uncertainty.
Keywords: uncertainty, ambiguity, risk, non-expected utility
JEL: C72 D81
Date: 2004-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:riskun:r04_4&r=all
347. Supermodularity and the comparative statics of risk
John Quiggin (Department of Economics, University of
Queensland)
Robert G. Chambers (Dept of Agricultural and Resource
Economics, University of Maryland, College Park)
In this paper, it is shown that a wide range of comparative
statics results from expected utility theory can be extended to
generalized expected utility models using the tools of
supermodularity theory.
Keywords: isk aversion, Schur concavity, supermodularity
JEL: D81
Date: 2004-06
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:riskun:r04_5&r=all
348. Fixed wages and bonuses in agency contracts: the case of a
continuous state space
Maria Racionero (Australian National University)
John Quiggin (Department of Economics, University of
Queensland)
In this paper, we extend the state-contingent production
approach to principal-agent problems to the case where the state
space is an atomless continuum. The approach is modelled on the
treatment of optimal tax problems. The central observation is
that, under reasonable conditions, the optimal contract may
involve a fixed wage with a bonus for above-normal performance.
This is analogous to the phenomenon of `bunching' at the bottom
in the optimal tax literature.
Keywords: state-contingent production, moral hazard
JEL: D21 D82
Date: 2004-06
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:riskun:r04_6&r=all
349. Games without Rules
Flavio Menezes (Australian National University)
John Quiggin (Department of Economics, University of
Queensland)
We introduce the notion of an outcome space, in which strategic
interactions are embedded. This allows us to investigate the idea
that one strategic interaction might be an expanded version of
another interaction. We then characterize the Nash equilibria
arising in such extensions and demonstrate a folk-type theorem
stating that any individually rational element of the outcome
space is a Nash equilibrium.
Keywords: game theory
JEL: C71
Date: 2004-07
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:riskun:r04_7&r=all
350. Illegal Immigration: Optimal Enforcement and Capital
Mobility
Subhayu Bandyopadhyay (Department of Economics, West
Virginia University)
Sudeshna C. Bandyopadhyay (Department of Economics, West
Virginia University)
This paper analyzes the effectiveness of enforcement in
controlling illegal immigration in two scenarios, capital
mobility and capital immobility in the host nation (for illigal
immigrants). The source nation is assumed thoughout to have
immobility of capital. We show that the net enforcement
expenditure is higher (lower) in the presence of capital mobility
if the host nation is an importer (exporter) of capital at the
target immigration level. Furthermore, we show that if the host
nation is an exporter of capital at the point of zero enforcement
unrestricted immigration), it must have lower enforcement
expenditure (compared to capital immobility) for any illegal
immigration targtet. If it is an importer of capital at zero
enforcement, there is some ambiguity. National income must be
higher (lower) under capital mobility (compared to immobility) if
the host nation is an importer (exporter) of capital at the
target immigration level. The analysis is extended to consider
endogenous determination of optimal immigration level. Under
capital mobility, for a capital exporting nation, the optimal
enforcement and the national income levels are higher, while the
optimal immigration level is lower.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wvu:wpaper:05-02&r=all
351. Trade and Child Labor: A General Equilibrium Analysis
Subhayu Bandyopadhyay (Department of Economics, West
Virginia University)
Sudeshna C. Bandyopadhyay (Department of Economics, West
Virginia University)
This paper augments the existing literature on trade and child
labor by exploring the effects of terms of trade changes in the
context of a three good general equilibrium model, where one of
the goods is a non-traded good. We find that under quasi-linear
preferences the effect of the terms of trade on child labor
depends critically on the pattern of substitutability (or
complementarity) in the excess demand functions between the
export good and the non-traded good. We extend the analysis to
the case of homothetic preferences and find that the basic result
is somewhat modified in a context where the marginal utility of
income is affected by the terms of trade. We also extend the
analysis to the case where factors move freely between the three
goods as in a Heckscher-Ohlin type framework. Finally, we show
that a balanced budget policy of taxing the education of skilled
families and subsidizing the education of unskilled families must
reduce child labor without any impact on aggregate welfare.
Keywords: Child Labor; Non-traded Goods; Substitutability or
Complementarity; Terms of Trade
JEL: F1 O19
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wvu:wpaper:05-03&r=all
352. Trade Policy and Illegal Immigration
Subhayu Bandyopadhyay (Department of Economics, West
Virginia University)
Ryo Takashima (Department of Economics, West Virginia
University)
We use a version of the Meade model to consider the effects of
interdependent import tariffs in the presence illegal immigration.
First, we consider the small union case and derive the Nash
tariff equilibrium for two potential members of a Preferential
Trade Agreement (PTA). We analyze conditions under which a
movement from the Nash equilibrium to complete intra-bloc tariff
elimination (FTA) is likely to be welfare augmenting. The paper
also considers how reduction of the external tariff may impact
the Nash equilibrium tariffs of the potential bloc members. The
analysis is extended to the large union case to consider the
conditions under which terms of trade of bloc members improve
with respect to the non-member nation(s).
Keywords: Preferential Trade Agreement, illegal immigration,
optimal tariff
JEL: F11 F22
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wvu:wpaper:05-04&r=all
353. Productivity-Based Asset Pricing: Theory and Evidence
Ronald J. Balvers (Division of Economics and Finance, West
Virginia University)
Dayong Huang (Division of Economics and Finance, West
Virginia University)
This paper considers asset pricing from the production side. It
differs from earlier approaches to production-based asset pricing
in that the pricing kernel is derived by replacing the marginal
rate of intertemporal substitution with an amended version of the
marginal rate of intertemporal transformation in a complete
markets economy. Relying on a general version of the traditional
Real Business Cycle macro model we find that the variables
determining the mean returns of all financial assets are the
productivity shock as the sole factor together with the capital
stock and lagged Solow residual (productivity level) as
conditioning variables. Standard GMM estimation finds that our
model improves on the complementary consumption-based and market-
based approaches and is competitive with the Fama-French three-
factor model. The model explains the size premium from
differences in the unconditional sensitivity to productivity
shocks—small firms are more sensitive to productivity
shocks—and explains the value premium from differences in the
conditional sensitivity to productivity shocks—growth stocks
are more sensitive to productivity shocks in good states when the
risk premium is low.
Keywords: Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing; Productivity; Macro
Factors; Production-Based Asset Pricing
JEL: G12 E44
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wvu:wpaper:05-05&r=all
354. Evaluation of Linear Asset Pricing Models by Implied
Portfolio Performance
Ronald J. Balvers (Division of Economics and Finance, West
Virginia University)
Dayong Huang (Division of Economics and Finance, West
Virginia University)
To evaluate linear asset pricing models we develop a measure
previously considered by Kandel and Stambaugh (1995). The “KS-
ratio” criterion rates a model’s usefulness based on the mean
portfolio return, for any given variance choice, obtained by a
mean-variance decision maker using the model for optimal
portfolio decisions. It is shown to be equivalent to a maximum
cross-sectional GLS Rsquare criterion and a criterion measuring
the minimal standardized distance of the factor portfolio
variance to the asset frontier for given mean. The KS-ratio
together with the HJ-distance and several ad hoc evaluation
criteria are applied to nine prominent asset pricing models. We
find that it is necessary to correct for the number of factors
and that this correction makes a substantial difference for model
rankings. While rankings on the ad hoc criteria are variable,
rankings based on the KSratio and HJ-distance are quite
consistent. After correction for the number of factors, both a
theoretical productivity-based model and the Chen-Roll-Ross model
beat the Fama-French three factor model.
Keywords: Linear Asset Pricing Models, Model Evaluation,
Portfolio Performance
JEL: G12 C52 G11
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wvu:wpaper:05-06&r=all
355. Fascismo: organizzazione dello Stato e sistema economico
S. Magagnoli
Il paper analizza il rapporto tra organizzazione dello Stato e
sistema economico, verificando se al processo di costruzione
dello Stato totalitario ne corrisponda uno analogo nel campo
delle politiche e delle istituzioni economiche. La tesi
argomentata suggerisce che la politica economica del regime e la
fusione di strategie gia' presenti in eta' liberale e
dell’adesione al mainstream affermatosi dopo il 1929 in tutta
l’area del capitalismo, che assegna alla presenza dello Stato
in economia un peso crescente. Il paper conclude che, eccettuato
il corporativismo, non e' esistito un progetto originale di
trasformazione ne' delle politiche ne' delle istituzioni
economiche.
Date: 2005
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:par:dipeco:2005-st01&r=all
356. Behavioral Conformity in Games with Many Players
Myrna Wooders (Department of Economics, Vanderbilt
University)
Edward Cartwright (Department of Economics, Keynes College,
University of Kent)
Reinhard Selten (Department of Economics, University of Bonn)
In the literature of psychology and economics it is frequently
observed that individuals tend to conform in their behavior to
the behavior of similar individuals. A fundamental question is
whether the outcome of such behavior can be consistent with self-
interest. We propose that this consistency requires the existence
of a Nash or approximate Nash equilibrium that induces a
partition of the player set into relatively few societies, each
consisting of similar individuals playing the same or similar
strategies. In this paper we introduce a notion of a society and
characterize a family of games admitting the existence of such an
equilibrium. We also introduce the concept of 'crowding types'
into our description of players and distinguish between the
crowding type of a player -- those characteristics of a player
that have direct effects on others -- and his tastes, taken to
directly affect only that player. With the assumptions of 'within
crowding type anonymity' and 'linearity of taste-types' we show
that the number of groups can be uniformly bounded.
Keywords: Behavioral conformity, noncooperative games, pregames,
Nash equilibrium, purification, social norms,
behavioral norms
JEL: C72 Z13
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:van:wpaper:0513&r=all
357. Memetics & Voting: How Nature May Make us Public Spirited
John P. Conley (Department of Economics, Vanderbilt
University)
Myrna Wooders (Department of Economics, Vanderbilt
University)
We consider the classic puzzle of why people turn out for
elections in substantial numbers even though formal analysis
strongly suggests that rational agents would not vote. If one
assumes that voters do not make systematic mistakes, the most
plausible explanation seems to be that agents receive a warm glow
from the act of voting itself. However, this begs the question
of why agents feel a warm glow from participating in the
electoral process in the first place. We approach this question
from an memetic standpoint. More specifically, we consider a
model in which social norms, ideas, values, or more generally,
"memes" influence the behavior of groups of agents, and in turn,
induce a kind of competition between value systems. We show for a
range of situations that groups with a more public-spirited
social norm have an advantage over groups that are not as public-
spirited. We also explore conditions under which the altruistic
behavior resulting from public-spiritedness is disadvantageous.
The details depend on the costs of voting, the extent to which
different types of citizens agree or disagree over the benefits
of various public policies, and the relative proportions of
various preference types in the population. We conclude that
memetic evolution over social norms may be a force that causes
individuals to internalize the benefits that their actions confer
on others.
Keywords: Memetics, evolution, voting, warm glow, civic duty,
free riding, public choice, public goods
JEL: C7 D7
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:van:wpaper:0514&r=all
358. Classes empietantes dans un graphe et application aux
interactions entre proteines
Lucile Denoeud (ENST et CERMSEM)
Irene Charon (ENST)
Alain Guenoche (Institut de Mathematiques de Luminy)
Olivier Hudry (ENST et CERMSEM)
In this paper, we study a method of classification by density in
an unweighted graph. We search some areas with a high density of
edges, that can be overlapping (we don't try to obtain a
partition but some intrinsic classes). The method consists of two
steps ; first we determine the cores of the classes by means of a
local density function and then we extend these cores by their
neighbourhoods following a criterion on the density of the
classes. Finally, the method is applied on a protein-protein
interaction network, with the aim of predicting unknown cellular
functions of some proteins.
Keywords: Bioinformatic, classification, density function,
interaction network
JEL: C69
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:wpsorb:b05032&r=all
359. Increases in risk and demand for risky asset
Alain Chateauneuf (CERMSEM)
Ghizlane Lakhnati (CERMSEM)
In this paper, we examine the effect of a decrease in risk on
the demand for risky asset in the standard portfolio problem. We
introduce a new class of dominance, that we name relative order
and we prove that this class of dominance is consistent both with
central dominance introduced by Gollier [5] and with mean
preserving increase in risk. Finally, we show that some known
classes of dominance are particular cases of our new class of
dominance.
Keywords: EU model, portfolio choice, mean preserving increase
in risk, central dominance, relative simple dominance,
relative dominance
JEL: D80 G11
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:wpsorb:b05033&r=all
360. On the precautionary motive for savings and prudence, in an
EU and a NEU framework
Alain Chateauneuf (CERMSEM)
Ghizlane Lakhnati (CERMSEM)
Eric Langlais (GAME)
In this paper, we deal with the basic two-period consumption
saving problem where the first and second period consumption
utility, respectively v is assumed to be concave as usually.
Considering the usual assumption of identify of u and v, we show
that prudence is fully characterized by the convexity of u' in
the EU model. More interesting we prove that for the RDEU model,
prudence is fully characterized by the convexity of u' and strong
pesimism. The paper ends by showing that for a strong risk averse
RDEU decision maker, strict pessimism allows local weak prudence,
whatever the sign of u.
Keywords: EU model, RDEU model, strong risk aversion, pessimism,
prudence and local weak prudence
JEL: D80 E21
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:wpsorb:b05034&r=all
361. From sure to strong diversification
Alain Chateauneuf (CERMSEM)
Ghizlane Lakhnati (CERMSEM)
This paper presents a characterization of weak risk aversion in
terms of preference for sure diversification. Similarly, we show
that strong risk aversion can be characterized by weakening
preference for diversification, as introduced by Dekel [11], in
what we name preference for strong diversification.
Keywords: Weak risk aversion, strong risk aversion,
diversification
JEL: D80 D81
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:wpsorb:b05035&r=all
362. Convergence en loi de Dirichlet de certaines integrales
stochastiques
Christophe Chorro (CERMSEM)
Recently, Nicolas Bouleau has proposed an extension of the
Donsker's invariance principle in the framework of Dirichlet
forms. He proves that an erroneous random walk of i.i.d random
variables converges in Dirichlet law toward the Ornstein-
Uhlenbeck error structure on the Wiener space [4]. The aim of
this paper is to extend this result to some families of
stochastic integrals.
Keywords: Invariance principle, stochastic integrals, Dirichlet
forms, squared field operator, vectorial domain, errors
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:wpsorb:b05036&r=all
363. Steady state analysis and endogenous fluctuations in a
finance constrained model
Thomas Seegmuller (EUREQua)
The overlapping generations model, like the one studied by
Reichlin (1986) or Cazzavillan (2001), can be interpreted as an
optimal growth economy where consumption is totally constrained
by capital income. In this paper, we analyze steady states and
dynamic properties of an extended version of such framework by
considering that only a share of consumption expenditures is
constrained by capital income. We notably establish that the
steady state is not necessarily unique. Moreover, in contrast to
the intuition, consumer welfare can increase at a steady state
following a raise of the share of consumption constrained by
capital income, i.e. the market imperfection. Concerning dynamics,
we show that endogenous fluctuations (indeterminacy and cycles)
can emerge depending on two parameters : the elasticity of
intertemporal substitution in consumption and the elasticity of
capital-labor substitution. Such fluctuations appear when these
two parameters take values in accordance with empirical studies
and without introducing increasing returns or imperfect
competition.
Keywords: Finance constraint, steady states, indeterminacy,
endogenous cycles
JEL: C62 D91 E32
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:wpsorb:v05029&r=all
364. Endogenous order of speech in expert committee. Who wants
to speak first ?
Nicolas Houy (EUREQua)
Lucie Menager (EUREQua)
We consider a committee made up of informed experts who have to
make a recommendation to a decision maker. We model the preceding
stage of debate, where experts have to reach a consensus on the
recommendation. Before debating, experts have to agree on a
debate rule, namely on a protocol of communication. We assume
that experts communicate along the debate by sending messages,
and that they follow an union-consistent message rule. We first
show that given any protocol, the debate leads to a consensus
where every expert sends the same recommendation. We also show
that this message depends on the communication protocol. We
suppose that experts prefer orders of speech that lead them to be
better informed. We address the issue of wether experts always
reach an agreement on the debate rule. We first show that it can
be common knowledge that all experts prefer the same protocol, as
well as it can be common knowledge that some of them prefer
different protocols. Then we show that in the second case, the
outcome recommendations are the same, so any protocol can be
imposed without consequences.
Keywords: Consensus, common knowledge, endogenous communication
protocol, debate
JEL: D83 D82
Date: 2005-02
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:wpsorb:v05030&r=all
365. Consensus, Communication and Knowledge : an Extension with
Bayesian Agents
Lucie Menager (EUREQua)
We extend the result of Parikh and Krasucki [1990] to the case
where the set of available decisions is arbitrary. We show that
if agents are bayesian and choose the action that maximizes their
expected utility, then word of mouth communication leads to the
equality of all decisions.
Keywords: Consensus, common knowledge, word of mouth
communication
JEL: D82 D83
Date: 2005-02
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:wpsorb:v05031&r=all
366. Rational Participation Revolutionizes Auction Theory
Ronald M. Harstad (Department of Economics, University of
Missouri-Columbia)
Potential bidders respond to a seller's choice of auction
mechanism for a common-value or affiliated-values asset by
endogenous decisions whether to incur a participation cost (and
observe a private signal), or forego competing. Privately
informed participants decide whether to incur a bid-preparation
cost and pay an entry fee, or cease competing. Auction rules and
information flows are quite general; participation decisions may
be simultaneous or sequential. The resulting revenue identity for
any auction mechanism implies that optimal auctions are
allocatively efficient; a nontrivial reserve price is revenue-
inferior for any common-value auction. Characterization of
optimal auctions is otherwise contentless, in that any auction
that sells without reserve is within the setting of one
continuous parameter of an optimal auction; seller's surplus-
extracting tools are now substitutes, not complements. Revenue
comparisons from the exogenous-bidders literature are upheld in a
half-space of parameters, overturned in a half-space. Many
econometric studies of auction markets are seen to be flawed in
their identifcation of the number of bidders.
Keywords: optimal auctions, endegenous bidder participation,
affiliated-values, common-value auctions, surplus-
extracting devices
JEL: D44 D82 C72
Date: 2005-05-10
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umc:wpaper:0504&r=all
367. Regionale Entwicklung mit und ohne raumliche Spillover
Effekte
Hans-Friedrich Eckey
Reinhold Kosfeld (Department of Economics, University of
Kassel)
Matthias Turck (Department of Economics, University of
Kassel)
Der wirtschaftliche Entwicklungsstand von Regionen hangt nicht
nur von ihrer eigenen Leistungsfahigkeit ab, sondern aufgrund
raumlicher Uberschwappeffekte auch von jener angrenzender
Wirtschaftsraume. Positive Spillovers (Lieferverflechtungen,
Nutzung der Infrastruktur in Nachbarregionen u. a.) und negative
Spillovers (z. B. Umwelteffekte) begrunden eine wechselseitige
Beeinflussung des Entwicklungsstands von Wirtschaftsraumen. Die
raumlich-okonometrische Analyse erlaubt eine Simulation von
okonomischen Gro?en mit und ohne Effekte angrenzender Gebiete.
Hier sei die Arbeitsproduktivitat betrachtet, die als Indikator
fur die Leistungsfahigkeit von Wirtschaftsraumen steht. Mit
Hilfe von Eigenvektoren, die die Nachbarschaftseffekte
wiedergeben, wird ein erheblicher Varianzanteil der
Arbeitsproduktivitat erklart. Eine die Grenzen von
Wirtschaftsraumen uberschreitende netzwerkbasierte
Regionalpolitik erscheint damit okonomisch sinnvoll zu sein.
Insbesondere Metropolen beeinflussen in hohem Ma?e die
Arbeitsproduktivitat im Umland. Einige ostdeutsche Regionen in
Brandenburg und Sachsen wurden ohne das schlechte
wirtschaftliche Umfeld eine deutlich uberdurchschnittliche
Arbeitsproduktivitat aufweisen. Andere Regionen, beispielsweise
im Harz und in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, sind aufgrund der dunnen
Besiedlung sowohl mit als auch ohne Berucksichtigung von
Nachbarschaftseffekten unattraktiv.
Keywords: Agglomerationstheorie, raumliche Okonometrie,
raumliche Filterung
JEL: C21 R11 R58
Date: 2005-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kas:wpaper:2005-70&r=all
368. Die Reform der Pflegeversicherung - weniger Kostendruck
durch flexiblere Pflegearrangements?
Jochen Michaelis (Department of Economics, University of
Kassel)
Melanie Arntz (ZEW, Mannheim)
Alexander Spermann (ZEW, Mannheim)
Nach der Einfuhrung der Pflegeversicherung Mitte der neunziger
Jahre haben sich die Pflegearrangements in Westdeutschland
signifikant zu Lasten der informellen Pflege durch Angehorige
verandert, wie erstmals anhand einer deskriptiven SOEP-Analyse
gezeigt wird. Dies steht im Einklang mit den theoretisch
abgeleiteten Hypothesen eines einfachen familienokonomischen
Modells. Im Rahmen der bereits laufenden sozialen Experimente mit
dem so genannten personengebundenen Pflegebudgets wird eine
weitere Leistungsform moglich, die flexiblere Pflegearrangements
erlauben. In diesem Beitrag werden die zu erwartenden
Auswirkungen des Pflegebudgets auf das Pflegearrangement
theoretisch abgeleitet. Eine erste empirische Uberprufung kann
angesichts des Kontrollgruppendesigns noch in diesem Jahr
vorgelegt werden.
Keywords: Pflegeversicherung, Sachleistung, Geldleistung,
Pflegebudget
JEL: H51 I18
Date: 2005-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kas:wpaper:2005-71&r=all
369. From Shareholder Value to CEO Power: the Paradox of the
1990s.
Robert Boyer
Why did CEOs remuneration exploded during the 90s and persisted
to high levels, even after the bursting out of the Internet
bubble? This article surveys the alternative explanations that
have been given of this paradox mainly by various economic
theories with some extension to political science, business
administration, social psychology, moral philosophy, network
analysis. Basically, it is argued that the diffusion of stock-
options and financial market related incentives, that were
supposed to discipline managers, have entitled them to convert
their intrinsic power into remuneration and wealth, both at the
micro and macro levels. This is the outcome of a de facto
alliance of executives with financiers, who have thus exploited
the long run erosion of wage earners'bargaining power. The
article also discusses the possible reforms that could reduce the
probability and the adverse consequences of CEOs and top-managers
opportunism: reputation, business ethic, legal sanctions, public
auditing of companies, or shift from a shareholder to a
stakeholder conception.
Date: 2005
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pse:psecon:2005-10&r=all
370. Les difficultes de la stabilisation economique en Europe :
un revelateur de l'inachevement institutionnel de
l'Union Economique.
Robert Boyer
The difficult implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact (
SGP) during the 2000s can be explained by the low rank of the
policy mix in the general process of European integration.
Actually the coordination between a common monetary policy and a
series of national budgetary policies has emerged rather recently,
whereas the extension and deepening of competition on the single
market has been the key principle governing the European
integration. Since 1999, all the actors have had to readjust
their anticipations and strategies about the consequence of the
euro: they are in the process of learning how to manage a new
policy mix. Various reform proposals of the SGP are presented and
discussed. Finally they are related to the nature of the European
institutional reforms. The agreement of the European council
about the reform of the SGP on March 2005 is interpreted in the
light of some major scenarios analyzing the medium-long term
evolution of competences in the European Union.
Date: 2005
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pse:psecon:2005-11&r=all
371. Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Beratung - Fluch oder Segen
fur die Politik?
Bernd Schips (KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle ETH Zentrum,
Zurich (Swiss Institute of Business Cycle Research ETH
Zentrum, Zurich))
Referat im Rahmen der Verabschiedung Herrn Prof. Dr. rer. pol.
Gunther Poser, gehalten am 14.07.2003 im Georg-Christoph-
Lichtenberg Haus, Darmstadt
Date: 2003-08
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tud:ddpiec:123&r=all
372. Familiale Arbeitsteilung: Determinanten in Theorie und
Empirie
Martina Lauk (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
Susanne Meyer (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
Das Geschlechterverhaltnis, welches in hohem Ma?e durch
geschlechter- spezifische Arbeitsteilung von Erwerbsarbeit und
Hausarbeit gepragt ist, befindet sich im Wandel. Dennoch gilt
Hausarbeit in Deutschland immer noch als typisch weibliche
Aufgabe. Die vorliegende Arbeit uberpruft die empirische
Relevanz dreier theoretischer Modelle zur
geschlechterspezifischen Zeitverwendung fur Hausarbeit aus den
Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften. Die verschiedenen Ansatze
werden anhand des Soziookonomischen Panels (SOEP) fur das Jahr
2000 untersucht. Die Schatzergebnisse implizieren, dass keine
der Theorien einer anderen vorgezogen werden kann. Gangige
Ansatze zur Erklarung familialer Arbeitsteilung sind somit in
gleicher Weise geeignet bzw. ungeeignet die Problematik empirisch
zu erfassen. Die individuelle Hausarbeitszeit wird sowohl durch
okonomische, wie auch ideologische Merkmale einer Person
bestimmt. Im Anschluss daran wird ein Ansatz unter simultaner
Berucksichtigung der individuellen Erwerbsarbeitszeit geschatzt.
Diese integrative Schatzung zeigt, dass das okonomische
Rationalprinzip im Bereich von privaten Haushalten nur
unzureichend anwendbar ist und verweist damit auf eine notwendige
interdisziplinare Behandlung des Themas.
Keywords: Zeitallokation, Familiale Arbeitsteilung, SOEP-Daten
JEL: J22 J16
Date: 2004-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tud:ddpiec:125&r=all
373. What a Difference Immigration Law Makes: PISA results,
migration background, socioeconomic status and social
mobility in Europe and traditional countries of immigration
Horst Entorf (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
Nicoleta Minoiu
The purpose of this article is to evaluate the importance of
social class, migration background and command of national
languages for the PISA school performance of teenagers living in
European countries (France, Finland, Germany, United Kingdom, and
Sweden) and traditional countries of immigration (Australia,
Canada, New Zealand and the US). Econometric results show that
the influence of the socioeconomic background of parents differs
strongly across nations, with the highest impact found for
Germany, the UK and US, whereas social mobility appears to be
more likely in Scandinavian countries and in Canada. Further
empirical results show that for students with a migration
background a key for catching up is the language spoken at home.
We conclude that educational policy should focus on integration
of immigrant children in schools and preschools, with particular
emphasis on language skills at the early stage of childhood.
Date: 2004-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tud:ddpiec:128&r=all
374. Kosten und Nutzen des Strafvollzuges: Grundlagen im Rahmen
einer rationalen Kriminalpolitik
Horst Entorf (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
Susanne Meyer (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
Eine rationale Kriminalpolitik zeichnet sich durch ihre
Orientierung an einem effizienten System zur Vermeidung von
Kriminalitat aus. Effizienz bedeutet dabei die Erzielung eines
gro?tmoglichen Erfolgs unter Berucksichtigung gegebener
Restriktionen. Eine sehr wichtige Rolle spielt in diesem
komplexen System der Bestrafung und der Pravention der Erfolg
des Strafvollzugs. Die Erfolgsmessung eines Strafsystems erweist
sich als fundamental fur die Analyse einer rationalen
Kriminalpolitik. Messbare Erfassung von Erfolg oder Misserfolg
ist Voraussetzung fur die Evaluierung eines bestehenden
Strafvollzugs gegenuber alternativen Strafsystemen, und
Messbarkeit liefert so die praktischen Grundlagen fur eine
effiziente und rationale Gestaltung von Justizreformen. Das
Erfolgsziel besteht fur unseren Strafvollzug in dem maximal
erzielbaren Nutzen fur unsere Gesellschaft im Sinne von Schutz
vor Kriminalitat, Rehabilitation usw. Eine rationale Sichtweise
verlangt, diesem Nutzen die Kosten des Strafvollzugs - betriebs-
wirtschaftlicher und gesellschaftlicher Art - gegenuber zu
stellen. Eine vollstandige Evaluation eines Sanktionssystems
verlangt folglich - in stark verkurzter Form - die Beantwortung
der Frage, ob der Nutzen der Strafma?nahmen (vermiedene
Kriminalitat) die Kosten der Strafma?nahmen uberschreitet oder
nicht. Der folgende Artikel stellt am Beispiel des Strafvollzugs
jene Faktoren vor, die in die in eine Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse
einflie?en sollten und zeigt zum anderen Probleme auf, die bei
der Bestimmung bzw. Erfassung der Kosten-Nutzen-Komponenten
auftreten konnen.
Date: 2004-02
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tud:ddpiec:129&r=all
375. The Demand for Illegal Migration and Market Outcomes
Horst Entorf (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
Jochen Mobert (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
This article summarizes important aspects of illegal immigration.
We analyse incentives of illegal immigrants as well as those of
their employers by applying basic principles of labour economics,
and by customising the workhorse of the economic theory of crime
to suit the labour market for illegals immigrants. In addition,
we describe the economic and social consequences of possible
market outcomes.
JEL: F22 J31
Date: 2004-03
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tud:ddpiec:130&r=all
376. Entscheidungsregeln und ihr Einfluss auf den Aktienkurs
Emanuela Trifan (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
Der vorliegende Beitrag quantifiziert anhand eines
Marktmikrostruktur-Modells mit asymmetrischer Information den
Einfluss der Anwender praktischer Entscheidungsregeln auf die
Aktienkurse. Letztere werden als unvollstandig informierte
Anleger betrachtet. Neben diesen Anlegern agieren auf dem Markt
vollstandig informierte, uninformierte Investoren und ein
kompetitiver Market Maker, welcher periodisch zwei
Transaktionskurse (Ask/Bid) festlegt. Der Einfluss der
unvollstandig informierten Anleger auf die Transaktionskurse
erfolgt einerseits durch die Genauigkeit ihrer Information,
anderseits durch ihren Anteil an der Gesamtheit der Investoren.
Die ermittelte Preisspanne (Spread) ist positiv and weist eine c.
p. positive Abhangigkeit von diesen beiden Faktoren auf. Eine
mogliche Erklarung dafur bietet das Auftreten von Adverse
Selektion
Date: 2004-03
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tud:ddpiec:131&r=all
377. The European Regional Crime Database: Data from the Book
'Crime in Europe'
Horst Entorf (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
Hannes Spengler (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
This paper contains a documentation of the EU regional crime
database (EURCD). The EURCD is the basis of the analyses
presented in our recently published book 'Crime in Europe' which,
in turn, is the result of a research project conducted on behalf
of the EU Commission. The EURCD is a panel dataset containing
information on 12 Interpol crime categories (murder, sex offences,
rape, serious assault, theft, aggravated theft, robbery and
violent theft, breaking and entering, theft of motor cars, fraud,
drug offences and total offences) across eight EU member states (
Denmark, Germany, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, Finland, Sweden
and England & Wales) for the maximal period 1980-1998 (length of
period depends on country and region). The spatial structure of
the EURCD is organised according to Eurostat's NUTS-system,
meaning that it contains data broken down into, for instance,
German 'Kreise', Spanish ' Provincias' and Italian 'Provincias'.
Crime data obtained for countries which, for reasons explained in
the paper, could not (Belgium, Greece, Portugal) or only partly (
England & Wales) be integrated into the analyses is (or will soon
be) provided in country-specific files. There is a lack of data
for Ireland and Luxemburg because regional crime data does not
exist for these countries, and for France and Austria which
refused to participate in the project. In order to allow
multivariate analyses of the causes and consequences of crime the
EURCD also contains a sizeable number of non-crime variables. By
providing this data to the public we hope to enhance empirical
crime research in Europe which until today has been denied
adequate attention by both criminologists and economists.
JEL: K42
Date: 2004-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tud:ddpiec:132&r=all
378. Kompensatorische Lohndifferenziale und der Wert eines
statistischen Lebens in Deutschland
Hannes Spengler (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
Diese Arbeit ist die erste empirische Untersuchung, die den Wert
eines statistischen Lebens (WSL) fur die Bundesrepublik
Deutschland ermittelt. Die Analysen werden auf der Grundlage
eines aus IAB-Beschaftigtenstichprobe und
Arbeitsunfallinformationen der Berufsgenossenschaften
zusammengesetzten Datensatzes durchgefuhrt. Die
Panelschatzungen ergeben einen durchschnittlichen WSL fur
sozialversicherungspflichtige Arbeitnehmer von 1,65 Mio. Euro.
Dieser Wert liegt deutlich unter den zu Vergleichszwecken
durchgefuhrten Querschnitts- untersuchungen (Mittelwert 4,5 Mio.
Euro) und legt nahe, dass (auch) die bisherigen Ergebnisse von US-
Studien (Median 7 Mio. US-Dollar), die fast ausschlie?lich auf
Querschnittsdaten beruhen, aufgrund der fehlenden Kontrolle
unbeobachteter Heterogenitat nach oben verzerrt sind. Die
ermittelten WSL-Ergebnisse konnen in Kosten-Nutzen-Analysen von
Projekten zur Risikoreduktion z.B. in Gesundheits-, Umwelt-,
Verkehrs- und Kriminalpolitik einflie?en.
Keywords: Value of Life, Kompensatorische Lohndifferenziale, IAB-
Beschaftigtenstichprobe, Random Effects Censored
Regression Modell
JEL: J17 J28 H43
Date: 2004-08
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tud:ddpiec:133&r=all
379. What ever happened to Germany? Is the decline of the former
European key currency country caused by structural sclerosis
or macroeconomic mismanagement?
Eckhard Hein (WSI, Hands-Boeckler-Stiftung, Dusseldorf)
Achim Truger (WSI, Hands-Boeckler-Stiftung, Dusseldorf)
This paper challenges the institutional sclerosis view of the
German crisis according to which rigid labour markets and
generous welfare state institutions have driven Germany into its
position as "Europe's sick man". In general, the view is not
convincing, because the underlying hypotheses about the effects
of labour market regulation and welfare state institutions on
employment and growth cannot unambiguously be derived from modern
labour market theory and are at least partially at odds with
accepted empirical findings. In particular, the explanation is
unconvincing, because in international comparison Germany's
labour market and welfare state institutions are simply not as
sclerotic as often supposed. In most of the aggregate indicators
for structural rigidities Germany is not worse than the average
OECD or EU country. Moreover, there is a macroeconomic
explanation focusing on the combined effects of restrictive and
pro-cyclical monetary, fiscal and wage policies in Germany that
is broadly consistent with modern macroeconomic theory and is
supported by empirical data.
Date: 2004-08
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tud:ddpiec:134&r=all
380. Currency Futures and Currency Crises
Andreas Rothig (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
Since financial derivatives are key instruments for risk taking
as well as risk reduction, it is only straightforward to examine
their role in currency crises. This paper addresses this issue by
investigating the impact of currency futures trading on the
underlying exchange rates. After a discussion of trading
mechanisms and trader types, the linkage between futures trading
activity and spot market turbulence is modelled using a VAR-GARCH
approach for the exchange rates of Australia, Canada, Japan,
Korea and Switzerland in terms of the US dollar. The empirical
results indicate that there is a positive relationship between
currency futures trading activity and spot volatility. Moreover,
in the case of four out of the total of five currencies discussed
in this paper, futures trading activity adds significantly to
spot volatility.
Keywords: Currency crises; Exchange rate volatility; Currency
futures trading activity; VAR-GARCH estimation.
JEL: C13 C32 F31 G15
Date: 2004-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tud:ddpiec:136&r=all
381. Koordinierte Makropolitik in der Europaischen Union?
Kilian Bizer (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
Werner Sesselmeier (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
In der Europaischen Union, genauer in den 12 Mitgliedslandern
der Euro-Zone, bestimmt die Europaische Zentralbank die
Geldpolitik, und die zwolf Mitgliedslander legen unabhangig
voneinander die jeweiligen Fiskalpolitiken fest. Wahrend bei den
einen - und dazu zahlt Deutschland - eine bemerkenswert hohe
Preisniveaustabilitat und eine spurbare Wachstumsschwache zu
verzeichnen ist, erfahren andere - wie Irland, Portugal, Spanien -
durchaus zufrieden stellende Wachstumsraten bei hoheren
Preisniveausteigerungen. Die Arbeitslosigkeit ist in der EU
insgesamt relativ hoch. Vor diesem Hintergrund ist die Forderung
erhoben worden, eine koordinierte Makropolitik in der EU zu
betreiben, um entweder mehr Wachstum und Beschaftigung zu
erreichen (Hein 2001, Priewe 2001) oder um zumindest auf
vorubergehende Nachfrageschwachen bei exogenen Schocks zu
reagieren. Im Folgenden geht es darum zu klaren, welcher Beitrag
von der koordinierten Makropolitik zu leisten ist, und welche
institutionellen Voraussetzungen fur eine solche zu erfullen
sind. Die Leitthese lautet, dass ausgehend von einem positiven
Beitrag koordinierter Makropolitik im neu-keynesianischen Modell
momentan nur wenig institutionelles Potential fur eine
Koordination besteht. Einerseits bildet der Stabilitats- und
Wachstumspakt nur eine regelgebundene Obergrenze fur den Einsatz
der Fiskalpolitik zum Schutz der gemeinsamen Geldpolitik,
andererseits reichen die vorhandenen Institutionen nicht aus, um
eine Koordination von Geld- und Fiskalpolitik und moglicherweise
weiteren Politikfeldern zu erreichen. Es ist folglich nach neuen
Institutionen zu suchen, die eine derartige Aufgabe zu losen
Date: 2004-08
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tud:ddpiec:137&r=all
382. Education, Research, and Economic Growth
Volker Caspari (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
Gunther Rehme (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
Jens Rubart (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (Department
of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt (Darmstadt
University of Technology))
It is obvious that the German economy exhibits a significant
decline in economic growth during the last two decades. Although
the German economy has still to overcome the burden of the
reunification in 1990 it is shown that this burden might be only
one reason of this decline. In this study we follow the new
growth theory and develop and com-pare indicators for the
educational and R&D systems of the U.S. and Germany. In this line,
we show that on average the German system can compete with the U.
S. one, but a lack of human capital at very high skill levels
becomes obvious. This lack, particularly leads to a lower
performance of German R&D and could, therefore, possibly explain
the decline of the German growth trend.
Keywords: Human Capital, Research and Development, Efficiency of
Educational Systems; Sources of Economic Growth
JEL: O11 O30
Date: 2004-08
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tud:ddpiec:138&r=all
383. Decision Rules and their Influence on Asset Prices
Emanuela Trifan (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
This paper develops a market microstructure model with
asymmetric information in order to quantify the influence which
practical decision rules have on asset process. The users of
practical decision rules have incomplete information at their
disposal and trade in a market with both fully informed and
uninformed investors, as well as with a competitive market maker.
The users of practical decision rules affect the periodical ask
and bid prices in two ways: by means of the precision of their
information and through their share in the totality of investors,
respectively. The resulting bid-ask spread is positive and
proportional to the c.p. variation of these two influencing
factors and is attributable to the adverse selection costs.
Date: 2004-03
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tud:ddpiec:139&r=all
384. Why Run a Million Regressions? Endogenous Policy and Cross
Country Growth Empirics
Gunther Rehme (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
This paper analyzes the link between growth and public policy
when the latter depends on economically important fundamentals.
When policy is endogenous the measured effects of policy on
growth will generally be biased. Using a widely quoted
theoretical model, the signs of the biases are derived. It is
shown that the usually reported effects on growth of tax rate
variables related to GDP, the ratio of public investment to total
investment and the ratio of redistributive transfers to GDP are
generally biased downwards. Based on these signed biases the
paper discusses some empirical results that seem puzzling from a
theoretical viewpoint.
Keywords: Growth, Public Policy, Cross-Sectional Models
JEL: O4 C2
Date: 2004-11
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tud:ddpiec:140&r=all
385. The Role of Money Demand in a Business Cycle Model with
Staggered Wage Contracts
Rafel Gerke (Ehemalig Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
Jens Rubart (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (Department
of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt (Darmstadt
University of Technology))
The question of the main determinants of persistent responses
due to nominal shocks captures, at least since Chari et al. (2000)
a major part of the recent macroeconomic debate. However, the
question whether sticky wages and/or sticky prices are sufficient
for persistent reactions of key economic variables remains open.
In the present model we allow for nominal rigidities due to
Taylor- like wage setting as well as price adjustment costs.
However, as our analysis illustrates, smoothing marginal costs
seems crucial to derive a contract multiplier, wage staggering
alone is not sufficient. Without considering a more specific
analysis of factor market frictions, we enforce a point made by
Erceg (1997) by analyzing the structure of money demand. In
particular, we analyze a `standard' consumption based money
demand function by varying the interest rate elasticity of money
demand as well as the steady state rate of money holdings. Our
results show that the persistency of the output/price dynamics
can be affected crucially by the form of the implicit money
demand function. In particular, it is shown that staggered wage
contracts have to be accompanied by a sufficiently low interest
rate elasticity, otherwise the model fails to reproduce
reasonable responses of real variables
Keywords: Monetary Policy Shocks, Sticky Prices, Staggered Wages,
Money Demand
JEL: E32 E41
Date: 2005-02
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tud:ddpiec:142&r=all
386. Women, Men and Housework Time Allocation: Theory and
Empirical Results
Martina Lauk (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
Susanne Meyer (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
The gender relationship, characterised to a high degree by the
gender-specific division of labour into paid work and housework,
is in the process of change. In Germany, however, housework
continues to be considered a typically female chore. The present
study considers the empirical relevance of three theoretical
approaches to gender-specific time allocation from the economic
and social sciences. The various models are assessed using the
Socioeconomic Panel (SOEP) for the year 2000. The estimation
results imply that no single theory can be favoured as opposed to
any other. Accordingly, prevalent approaches to the explanation
of household division of labour are at the same time equally
suited and unsuited to grasping the problem empirically. A
person's individual housework time is determined by both economic
and ideological characteristics. Following on from the evaluation
of different theories, an approach is evaluated which
simultaneously takes individual work time and paid work time into
account. This integrative evaluation shows that the economic
rational choice model finds only limited application in the area
of private households, thus pointing to the necessity for an
interdisciplinary treatment of the subject.
Keywords: time allocation, household division of labour, SOEP
data
JEL: J22 J16
Date: 2005-03
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tud:ddpiec:143&r=all
387. Women's Labour Supply after Childbirth: An Empirical
Analysis for Switzerland
Dragana Djurdjevic (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
In this paper, I investigate employment behaviour of women one
year after childbirth. Since the study is based on a sample of
mothers only, a corrective method for selection into motherhood
has been applied. In the empirical work, I use the family sex
composition as an instrument for fertility. The primary focus of
this study is to investigate the regional differences in the
labour supply of women after childbirth. In Switzerland,
childcare policy is an area being the responsibility of cantons
and communes. There are thus considerable geographical,
linguistic and cultural differences in childcare provision within
the country. For instance, childcare policy is more strongly
integrated at the cantonal level in the French and Italian
speaking regions ("Latin part") than in the German speaking
regions ("German part") where communes operate at their own
discretion. The federal structure of Switzerland poses thus
issues of policy coherence. The main results of this paper
indicate that Latin mothers are more likely to return to work and
to report more hours of work than their German counterparts. As a
consequence, a more coherent and more harmonised childcare policy
at the federal level should prove worthwhile. Adopting measures
that increase the availability and the quality of childcare is
important to promote mother's full-time and continuous employment.
Keywords: fertility, labour supply, selectivity, instrumental
variables
JEL: D1 J13 J21
Date: 2005-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tud:ddpiec:144&r=all
388. WComputer Use and the Employment Status of Older Workers -
An Analysis Based on Individual Data
Katrin Schleife (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
This paper analyzes computer use by older male employees and
estimates the impact of computer use on their employment status,
based on individual data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (
GSOEP) for the years 1997 and 2001. In line with previous
research on the diffusion of new technologies, a strong and
negative relationship between the age of workers and computer use
is found. In addition, the impact of occupational status and
hourly wage on computer use is significantly positive. However,
the estimated impact of computer use on the change in employment
status of older workers becomes insignificant when controlling
for individual and firm-specific characteristics.
Keywords: computer use, older workers, employment status
JEL: J14 J26 O33
Date: 2004-09
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tud:ddpiec:145&r=all
389. Sparzwang und Kriminalitatsriskio: Gibt es Zusammenhange?
Offene Fragen und erste Ergebnisse aus einem
Forschungsprojekt
Horst Entorf (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
Susanne Meyer (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
Jochen Mobert (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
Hannes Spengler (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
Der nachhaltige Sparzwang in Zeiten leerer offentlicher Kassen
wird auch zu Einbu?en im Bereich der Kriminalpravention fuhren,
insbesondere im Bereich der Jugend- und der Jugendgerichtshilfe.
Die Folgen konnten einen deutlichen Anstieg der Kriminalitat
bedeuten. Wie dieser Artikel jedoch aufzeigt, sind
quantifizierbare Zusammenhange zwischen (finanziellen und
personellen) Inputs und Erfolgen der Kriminalpolitik unklar. Die
Grunde hierfur sind mannigfaltig. Ein Defizit besteht in den
fehlenden Schatzungen der Kosten in Kriminalitat, ferner nimmt
Deutschland im Vergleich zu anderen Industrielandern an den
regelma?ig durchgefuhrten internationalen Opferstudien nicht
teil. Weitere Mangel bestehen in der fur eine Erfolgskontrolle
unzureichenden Nutzbarkeit bestehender Ruckfallstatistiken sowie
in der fehlenden oder mangelhaften Durchfuhrung der Evaluation
angebotener Ma?nahmen. Der vorliegende Artikel weist auf die
Grunde fur diese Informationsdefizite hin und zeigt anhand von
ersten Forschungsergebnissen des an der TU Darmstadt
durchgefuhrten Forschungsprojektes "Kosten und Nutzen von Haft
und Haftvermeidung", welche Erkenntnisse potentiell weiterhelfen
konnten.
Date: 2005-03
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tud:ddpiec:146&r=all
390. Corporate Currency Hedging and Currency Crises
Andreas Rothig (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Technische Universitat Darmstadt
Darmstadt University of Technology))
Willi Semmler (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Universitat Bielefeld (
University of Bielefeld))
Peter Flaschel (Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre (
Department of Economics), Universitat Bielefeld (
University of Bielefeld))
We examine the impact of corporate currency hedging on economic
stability by introducing hedging activity in a Mundell-Fleming-
Tobin framework for analyzing currency and financial crises. The
ratio between hedged and unhedged firms is modelled depending on
firm size as well as hedging costs. The results indicate that,
with an increasing fraction of hedged firms in an economy, the
magnitude of a crisis decreases and from a specific hedging level
onwards currency crises are ruled out. In order to improve
corporate risk management access to hedging instruments should be
made possible and hedging costs should be reduced.
Keywords: Mundell-Fleming-Tobin model, currency crises, currency
hedging, hedg- ing costs
JEL: E32 E44 F31 F41
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tud:ddpiec:147&r=all
391. The Costs and Benefits of Growth: Lawrence, KS, 1990-2003
Joshua L. Rosenbloom (Department of Economics, The
University of Kansas, NBER)
Since 1990 employment in the city of Lawrence, Kansas has grown
by 34 percent, nearly three times as fast as the state as a whole.
Such rapid growth both creates economic benefits for residents
and increases the cost of city services. This paper shows that
the main beneficiaries of rapid growth were homeowners, who
realized capital gains because of the increasing real estate
values. Local workers experienced little or no improvement in
relative wage levels or reduced chances of unemployment because
job growth resulted in substantial population migration. On the
cost side, city expenditures nearly doubled in real terms since
1990. This rise in spending was financed primarily through
increased sales tax revenues and higher charges for city services.
Thus the burden of increased spending was distributed more
widely than the benefits of rising property values. The extent to
which the rise in city expenditures is directly attributable to
increased population cannot be determined without further
investigation into the changes in the quality of city services
provided.
Date: 2005-05
Date: 2005-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:200514&r=all
392. FDI and Trade - Two Way Linkages?
Joshua Aizenman (Economics, University of California, Santa
Cruz)
Ilan Noy (Economics, University of Hawaii-Manoa)
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the intertemporal
linkages between FDI and disaggregated measures of international
trade. We outline a model exemplifying some of these linkages,
describe several methods for investigating two-way feedbacks
between various categories of trade, and apply them to the recent
experience of developing countries. After controlling for other
macroeconomic and institutional effects, we find that the
strongest feedback between the sub-accounts is between FDI and
manufacturing trade. More precisely, applying Geweke (1982)'s
decomposition method, we find that most of the linear feedback
between trade and FDI (81%) can be accounted for by Granger-
causality from FDI gross flows to trade openness (50%) and from
trade to FDI (31%). The rest of the total linear feedback is
attributable to simultaneous correlation between the two annual
series.
JEL: F15 F21 F36 H21
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ewc:wpaper:wp76&r=all
393. A Note on the Empirical Relationship Between Trade, Growth
and the Environment
Jose Mendez (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Lewis Gale (University of Southern Louisiana)
This note reestimates Grossman and Krueger’s (1993) SO2
emissions regression including regressors to capture the effects
of scale, trade and trade policy. Several new results are
obtained. Increases in economic activity have a negative effect
on the environment separate from changes in per capita income,
whose relation to the environment is now positive and linear not
inverted-U shaped. The trade policy measure is not significant,
but its effect is ambiguous a priori. Finally, in line with
specialization patterns based on traditional sources of
comparative advantage, pollution rises with the capital abundance
of a country (since this favors capital-intensive and generally
dirtier industries) and falls with increases in labor and land
abundance.
JEL: Q2 O1 F1
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2132836&r=all
394. Stationary Temporary Equilibrium in a General Model of
Optimal Accumulation and Trade
Manjira Datta (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
This paper analyzes the movement of market-clearing prices in an
intertemporal general equilibrium framework and, in particular,
proves the existence of a stationary temporary equilibrium. A
model of a competitive economy is developed which consists of
several 'small' countries engaged in consumption, production and
trade. Following Hicks, one way to look at the evolution of an
economic system is to view it as a succession of temporary
competitive equilibria. The aspect of stationarity is interesting
because if the sequence of temporary equilibria converges to a
steady-state, it must converge to a stationary temporary
equilibrium. A linear-logarithmic economy exhibits convergence.
JEL: D51 D52 D90 F10
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2132839&r=all
395. Optimal Accumulation in a Small Open Economy with
Technological Uncertainty
Manjira Datta (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
This paper analyzes the optimal allocation problem of a small
country facing an uncertain technology and trading. It is
involved in production of many commodities. Differentiability
cannot be guaranteed, hence, the Ramsey-Euler condition of
optimality needs to be modified. From the optimality criterion,
we derive a pair of conditions, which does not require
differentiability. If ‘enough’ uncertainty is allowed, the
sequence of the distribution functions of investment expenditure
converges uniformly to a unique invariant measure.
JEL: C61 D90 O41
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2132840&r=all
396. Dynamic Externalities and Policy Coordination
Manjira Datta (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Leonard Mirman (University of Virginia)
We introduce the possibility of trade in dynamic models with
externalities and evaluate the consequences on the capital
accumulation process, the market-clearing prices and policy
making. We consider mixed economies characterized by a blend of
strategic and nonstrategic sectors. An equilibrium exists in the
bilateral monopoly game because the strategic planner
incorporates the future utility of the country and the presence
of a nonstrategic sector in its decision making. Capital
externality is one source of interdependence. Equilibrium price,
a function of both outputs, is another. Policy coordination is
advantageous only when preferences are dissimilar and an
externality is present.
JEL: C73 D90 E61
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2132841&r=all
397. Externalities, Market Power, and Resource Extraction
Manjira Datta (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Leonard Mirman (University of Virginia)
This paper analyzes the effect of market power in a model with
dynamic and biological externalities. When several countries
harvest fish in international waters the evolution of fish
population is affected by their joint action, thus, generating a
biological and a dynamic externality. If there is trade in fish,
the market-clearing prices depend on the harvesting and
consumption decision made in every country. Therefore, market-
clearing prices generate another type of interdependence. The
planners' make their policy decision by taking account of various
externalities.We find a subgame perfect Cournot-Nash equilibrium
and the conditions under which it may be efficient. We also study
the role of different externalities in generating inefficiency.
JEL: C73 D51 D90 F12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2132842&r=all
398. Intertemporal Cournot and Walras Equilibrium: An
Illustration
Manjira Datta (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Tito Cordella (International Monetary Fund)
In an intertemporal general equilibrium framework, we compare a
Cournot equilibrium to the Walras equilibrium. The Cournot agents
trade and invest less than the Walras agents. This generates an
ineffciency which does not vanish as the number of Cournot agents
tends to infinity. A larger number of strategic Cournot agents
implies that the amount of trade (relative to their aggregate
consumption) increases (i.e., moving towards the Walrasian amount)
but their investment (relative to the stock) decreases (i.e.,
moving away from the Walrasian amount).
JEL: C72 C73 D43 D90
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2132843&r=all
399. Existence and Uniqueness of Equilibrium in Distorted
Dynamic Economies with Capital and Labor
Manjira Datta (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Leonard Mirman (University of Virginia)
Kevin Reffett (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
In this paper, we provide a set of sufficient conditions under
which recursive competitive equilibrium exist and are unique for
a large class of distorted dynamic equilibrium models with
capital and elastic labor supply. We develop a monotone map
approach to the problem. The class of economies for which we are
able to obtain our existence result is apparently considerably
larger than those considered in previous work. Additionally
unlike previous work, we are able to also prove that this
equilibrium is unique. We conclude by applying the new results to
some important examples of monetary economies often used in
applied work.
JEL: C62 D51 D90 E10
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2132846&r=all
400. Increased Risk-Bearing with Background Risk
Edward Schlee (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Christian Gollier (No affiliation)
Analyses of risk-bearing often assume that agents face only one
risk when deciding how much risk to bear. Agents however usually
face several risks at the same time and the interaction between
risks can affect the willingness to bear any particular one of
them. We consider how the introduction of uninsurable background
risk affects the comparative statics predictions of distribution
changes in the standard two-asset portfolio model. We show that
such predictions are fairly robust, no matter what the
correlation between the background risk and the risky asset's
return distribution. We consider changes in the conditional
distributions of the risky asset's return (holding the marginal
distribution of the background risk fixed); and changes in the
marginal distribution of the asset's return (holding the
conditional distributions of the background risk fixed). For the
first question, a version of Gollier's (1995) Central Riskiness
order is sufficient and necessary to increase risk-bearing. For
the second question, Monotone Likelihood Ratio improvements are
sufficient and necessary.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2132848&r=all
401. Exchange Rates and FOMC Days
Michael Melvin (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
FOMC meeting days provide a natural laboratory for exploring the
effects of policy uncertainty and learning on exchange rate
determination. Intradaily mark/dollar exchange rates are employed
for 10 FOMC meetings. The meetings examined are the first 10
following the February 1994 change in policy where the meeting
outcome is announced after meetings end. The following hypotheses
motivated by the market microstructure literature are examined: 1)
strategic behavior by informed traders should result in position-
taking prior to meeting end and the revelation of policy and 2)
bid-ask spreads should widen due to adverse selection potential
as the probability of quoting to an informed trader increases. A
markov-switching model is used to estimate the time of informed
position-taking. The data suggest that on most days, there is a
switch to the informed-trading state during the time of the
meeting, well before the end of the meeting. An extensive search
of public news indicates that the informed trading cannot be
explained as the response to public information. An ordered
probit model of the bid-ask spread is estimated as a function of
the probability of being in the informed trading state. The
estimation results indicate that the greater the probability of
being in the informed trading state, the wider spreads. This is
consistent with dealers protecting against adverse selection in
quoting. The evidence indicates that meeting outcomes are
generally anticipated during the meeting. In this sense, the
realization of the meeting outcome is often not news.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2132849&r=all
402. Asymmetric Information and Price Discovery in the FX Market:
Does Tokyo Know More About the Yen?
Michael Melvin (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Vincentiu Covrig (Singapore University)
We identify a period in the foreign exchange market when there
is a high concentration of informed yen/dollar traders active in
Tokyo. We exploit the data during this period to test
implications of market-microstructure theory.
JEL: F3
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2132855&r=all
403. Subgame Perfect Equilibria and Communication in Stage Gamges
Alejandro Manelli (W. P. Carey School of Business Department
of Economics)
Any stage-game with infinite choice sets can be approximated by
finite games obtained as increasingly finer discretizations of
the infinite game. The subgame perfect equilibrium outcomes of
the finite games converge to a limit distribution. We prove that (
i) if the limit distribution is feasible in the limit game, then
it is also a subgame perfect equilibrium outcome of the limit
game; and (ii) if the limit distribution prescribes sufficiently
diffused behavior for first-stage players, then it is a subgame
perfect equilibrium outcome of the limit game. These results are
potentially useful in determining the existence of subgame
perfect equilibria in applications. As an illustration of this
potential, it is shown that the addition of cheap talk to the
games considered restores the existence of subgame perfect
equilibria.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2132859&r=all
404. Two-Sided Search and Perfect Segregation with Fixed Search
Costs
Hector Chade (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
This paper studies a two-sided search model with the following
characteristics: there is a continuum of agents with different
types in each population, match utility is nontransferable, and
there is a fixed search cost that agents incur in each period.
When utility functions are additively separable in types and
strictly increasing in the partner's type, there exists a unique
matching equilibrium that exhibits perfect segregation as in
Smith (1997) and Burdett and Coles (1997); i.e., agents form
clusters and mate only within them. The role of additive
separability and xed search costs is discussed and contrasted
with the discounted case, and an intuitive explanation for the
different results obtained in the literature is provided. Also, a
simple sufficient condition on the match utility function and the
density of types allow us to characterize the duration of the
search for each type of agent.
JEL: D81 D83
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2132861&r=all
405. Taxes and Marriage: A Two-Sided Search Analysis
Hector Chade (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Gustavo Ventura (University of Western Ontario)
This paper studies the effects of differential tax treatment
toward married and single individuals in the US on marriage
formation and composition, divorce and labor supply. We develop a
marriage market model with search frictions and heterogeneous
agents that is sufficiently rich to capture key elements of the
problem under consideration. We then calibrate the model and use
it to evaluate the quantitative effects of a number of tax
reforms aimed at making the tax law neutral with respect to
marital status. We find that reforms can have substantial effects
on the labor supply of married females and on the degree of
assortative mating.
JEL: H2 D1
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2132862&r=all
406. Pricing, Learning, and Strategic Behavior in a Single-Sale
Model
Hector Chade (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Virginia Vera de Serio (Facultad de Ciencias Economicas,
Universidad Nacional)
This paper analyzes an infinite horizon model where a seller,
who owns an indivisible unit of a good for sale, has incomplete
information about the state of the world that determines not only
the demand she faces but also her own valuation for the good.
Over time, she randomly meets potential buyers who may have
incentives to strategically manipulate her learning process. The
Perfect Bayesian Equilibria of the game are characterized, as
well as some interesting limit properties when agents become
almost infinitely patient. Comparative static results regarding
the incentives to experiment are presented, and the expected
number of periods until the seller trades is calculated.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2132863&r=all
407. 'Once-in-a-Generation' Yen Volatility in 1998: Fundamentals,
Intervention, and Order Flow
Jun Cai (City University of Hong Kong)
Yan-Leung Cheung (City University of Hong Kong)
Raymond Lee (City University of Hong Kong)
Michael Melvin (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
The yen provided foreign exchange market participants with 'once-
in-a-generation' volatility movements in 1998. For instance,
after many months of uneven yen depreciation a remarkable period
of yen appreciation was experienced where, in one two-day period,
the U.S. dollar dropped in value by 20 yen, market-makers were
refusing to quote yen/dollar prices for more than $1 million, and
funds with short yen positions incurred massive losses. Not since
the early 1970s has the yen-dollar exchange rate experienced such
shifts. Analysts claimed that the yen reversal was due to order
flow driven by changing tastes for risk and hedge-fund herding on
unwinding yen ‘carry trade’ positions rather than any
fundamentals related to the yen. In this paper, we examine the
high-frequency evidence on the yen/dollar exchange rate in 1998
and provide a detailed characterization of the return volatility.
Evidence of shifting fundamentals is provided by a comprehensive
list of macroeconomic announcements from both the U.S. and Japan.
While macroeconomic announcements and intervention are found to
have significant effects on volatility, our results lead to the
conclusion that order flow played a more important role than news
regarding fundamentals. Evidence regarding the independent effect
of order flow was provided by spot, forward, and futures
positions of major market participants. These position changes
are found to be significant determinants of volatility. Since
such portfolio shifts are revealed to the market through trading,
the results are consistent with order flow playing a significant
role in the revelation of private information and the associated
exchange rate shifts.
JEL: F31 G14 G15 C22
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2132865&r=all
408. The Political Economy of Japan's Big Bang
Takatoshi Ito (Hitotsubashi University)
Michael Melvin (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
A first step in the 'big-bang' deregulation of Japanese
financial markets was the deregulation of the foreign exchange
market on April1, 1998. This paper provides an overview of the
deregulation and then examines the early effects of the foreign
exchange market deregulation. In particular we study how the bid-
ask spread and conditional volatility in the yen/dollar foreign
exchange market changed around the time of the deregulation.
Intra-day data are analyzed with the following results: (1)
Holding constant the effects of volume and volatility, the
deregulation was associated with a convergence of Japanese quoted
spreads toward those of other banks. (2) Modeling the persistence
in volatility reveals that deregulation lowered conditional
volatility.
JEL: F3 G1
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2132866&r=all
409. Multi-Unit Auctions: A Comparison of Static and Dynamic
Mechanisms
Alejandro Manelli (W. P. Carey School of Business Department
of Economics)
Martin Sefton (University of Newcastle)
Benjamin Wilner (LECG/Navigant Consulting)
We compare, experimentally, the Vickrey auction and an ascending-
price auction recently introduced by Ausubel (1997). We evaluate
the relative performance of both auctions in terms of efficiency
and revenue in multi-unit environments where valuations either
have a common-value component or are private information. We find
that the Ausubel auction is less prone to overbidding and may
yield higher revenue than the Vickrey auction. The gain in
revenue seems to be coupled with a loss of efficiency.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2132867&r=all
410. Segmented Risk-Sharing in a Continuous Time Setting
Hector Chade (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Bart Taub (University of Illinois)
In an economy with a continuum of individuals, each individual
has a stochastic, continuously evolving endowment process.
Individuals are risk averse and would therefore like to insure
their endowment processes. It is feasible to obtain insurance by
pooling endowments across individuals because the processes are
mutually independent. We characterize the payoff from an
insurance contracting scheme of this type, and we investigate
whether such scheme would survive as an equilibrium in a
noncooperative setting.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2132868&r=all
411. Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics
Timothy Cogley (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Thomas Sargent (Stanford University and Hoover Institution)
This paper uses a nonlinear stochastic model to describe
inflation-unemployment dynamics in the U.S. after World War II.
The model is a vector autoregression with coefficients that are
random walks with innovations that are arbitrarily correlated
with each other and with innovations to the observables. The
model enables us to detect features that have been emphasized in
theoretical analyses of inflation-unemployment dynamics. Those
analyses involve coefficient drift in essential ways.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2132872&r=all
412. Price Discovery in International Equity Trading
Michael Melvin (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Joachim Grammig (Universite' Catholique de Louvain)
Christian Schlag (University of Frankfurt)
This study addresses two questions: where does price discovery
occur for internationally-traded firms and how do international
stock prices adjust to an exchange rate shock? These questions
are answered by analyzing quotes originating in New York and
Frankfurt for three large German firms, DaimlerChrysler, Deutsche
Telekom, and SAP, during overlapping trading hours. A high-
frequency sample of quotes from both locations along with the
dollar/euro exchange rate yields evidence of one cointegrating
relation among the 3 variables. Vector error correction models
are estimated for each firm and the associated vector moving
average representations are utilized to infer the share of price
discovery coming from the exchange rate, New York, and Frankfurt
quotes. The evidence suggests a structure of the international
equity market that has the home-market largely determining the
random walk component of the international value of a firm along
with an independent role for exchange rate shocks to affect
prices in the U.S. markets. However, there is a significant
information share for New York in the case of DaimlerChrysler and
an even bigger role for New York with respect to SAP. Following a
shock to the exchange rate, we find that almost all of the
adjustment comes through the New York price.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2133299&r=all
413. How Fast Can the New Economy Grow? A Bayesian Analysis of
the Evolution of Trend Growth
Timothy Cogley (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
This paper uses consumption data to estimate the trend growth
rate for the “new economy.'' The analysis starts with the
assumption that a trend break in GDP should be accompanied by a
trend break in consumption. But because consumption is forward
looking and smoother than GDP, it should be easier to detect a
trend break in the former. The forward looking nature of
consumption allows us to incorporate the private expectations of
U.S. households about the new economy. The relative smoothness
makes it easier to separate changes in trend growth from ordinary
cyclical movements. The evidence confirms that there has been an
increase in trend growth over the last 5 years, but the increase
seems rather modest. The new economy is likely to grow more
rapidly than in the 1970s, but not as fast as in the 1950s or
early 1960s.
JEL: C11 C32 C53
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2133301&r=all
414. Informed Principal, Moral Hazard, and the Value of a More
Informative Technology
Hector Chade (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Randolph Silvers (W. P. Carey School of Business Department
of Economics)
We analyze a principal-agent model with moral hazard in which
the principal has private information about the technology, and
the contract offered by her may signal this information to the
agent. We characterize Perfect Bayesian Equilibria of the game
that possess the following properties that do not arise in its
complete information counterpart: first, a principal with a more
informative technology ends up earning less profits than a
principal with a less informative one; second, compared to the
complete information case, the actions implemented by the
privately informed principal can be distorted, and the distortion
can even be in an upward direction (i.e., a higher action is
implemented under incomplete information); third, the agent can
end up being better off when the principal has private
information.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2133302&r=all
415. Risk Aversion, Moral Hazard, and the Principal's Loss
Hector Chade (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Virginia Vera de Serio (Facultad de Ciencias Economicas,
Universidad Nacional)
In their seminal paper on the principal-agent model with moral
hazard, Grossman and Hart (1983) show that the loss to the
principal from being unable to observe the agent’s action is
increasing in the agent’s degree of absolute risk aversion.
Their proof is restricted to the case where the number of
observable outcomes is equal to two, and uses an argument which
is specific to that case. In this note, we provide a different
proof that generalizes their result to any (finite) number of
outcomes.
JEL: D82
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2133303&r=all
416. Stock Options and Managerial Optimal Contracts
Manuel Santos (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Jorge Aseff (No affiliation)
In this paper we are concerned with the performance of stock
option contracts in the provision of managerial incentives. In
our simple framework, we restrict the space of contracts
available to the principal to those conformed by a fixed payment
and a package of call options on the firm's stock. We then offer
a characterization of optimal stock option compensation schemes.
As compared to the fixed payment and the option grant, we find
that the strike price plays an intermediate role in the provision
of insurance and incentives. We also develop some efficient
algorithms for the computation of optimal contracts in which the
observable outcome is drawn from a continuous distribution. These
algorithms are useful to address some important issues such as
the calibration of a principal-agent model, the degree of risk
aversion compatible with current compensation schemes, and the
performance of stock option contracts.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2133304&r=all
417. On Non-Existence of Markov Equilibria in Competitive-Market
Economies
Manuel Santos (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
This paper presents some examples of regular dynamic economies
with externalities and taxes that either lack existence of a
Markov equilibrium or such equilibrium is not continuous. These
examples pose further challenges for the analysis and computation
of these economies. JEL Classification: C10, C62
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2133305&r=all
418. Equilibrium Dynamics in a Two-Sector Model with Taxes
Manuel Santos (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Salvador Ortigueira (Cornell University)
In this paper we are concerned with the equilibrium dynamics of
a two-sector model of endogenous growth with distortionary taxes.
We show that for certain parameters values and tax schemes every
equilibrium orbit--except the steady state solution--is non-
interior; i.e., there are times in which one of the sectors is
inactive. This analysis confirms that in multisector models the
set of easily checkable, universal conditions that can guarantee
the interiority of equilibrium solutions is rather limited.
JEL: D90 E22
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2133332&r=all
419. Inheritance, Equal Division and Rent Seeking
Roger Faith (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Robert Tollison (University of Mississippi)
We examine bequest-sharing rules where wasteful competition for
bequests is possible by children. We show that equal division
minimizes rent-seeking expenditures by siblings. Finally, we
employ a theory of rational social norms in order to discuss the
evolution of bequest norms in the Middle Ages from primogeniture
to partible inheritances in some parts of Western Europe.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2133341&r=all
420. On Some Criteria for the Formulation and Testing of
Economic Growth Models
Manuel Santos (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
This paper presents a methodology for the formulation and
testing of economic growth models. The model selected includes
two production sectors with physical and human capital
accumulation. These capital stocks are associated with spillover
effects in the production of the physical good and in the
accumulation of both factors.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2133359&r=all
421. A Yen is not a Yen: TIBOR/LIBOR and the determinants of the
'Japan Premium'
Michael Melvin (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Vincentiu Covrig (Singapore University)
Buen Low (Nanyang Technological University)
Pricing in the Euroyen market is based on LIBOR, the London
Interbank Offer Rate, set at 11am London time or TIBOR, the Tokyo
Interbank Offer Rate, set at 11am Tokyo time. Since the TIBOR
panel is dominated by Tokyo city banks while the LIBOR panel is
dominated by non-Japanese banks, the changing TIBOR-LIBOR spread
reflects the credit risk associated with Japanese banks or the
'Japan premium.' In this paper, we investigate the determinants
of this 'Japan premium.' The spread is modeled as a function of
determinants of bank default and firm value suggested by a theory
of credit spreads. Our results suggest that systematic variation
in the spread can be explained by interest rate and stock price
effects along with public information flows of good and bad news
regarding Japanese banking, with a separate individual role for
Japanese bank credit downgrades and upgrades.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2133360&r=all
422. Expected Consumer's Surplus as an Approximate Welfare
Measure
Edward Schlee (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Willig (1976) argues that the change in consumeris surplus is
often a good approximation to the willingness to pay for a price
change: if the income elasticity of demand is small, or the price
change is small, then the percentage error from using consumeris
surplus is small. If the price of a good is random, then the
change in (ECS) equals a consumeris willingness to pay for a
change in its distribution if and only if its demand is
independent of income and the consumer is risk neutral over
income gambles. We ask how well the change in ECS approximates
the willingness to pay if these conditions fail. We show that the
di§erence between the change in ECS and willingness to pay is of
higher order than the L1 distance between the distributions if
and only if the indirect utility function is additively separable
in the price and income. If, however, this knife-edge condition
fails, then the percentage error from using ECS can be
arbitrarily large for small changes in the price distribution.
Moreover, we show that the percentage error can be large even if
risk aversion, the goodis income elasticity of demand and its
budget share are all small. Thus, the widespread use of expected
consumeris surplus as a welfare measure under uncertainty cannot
be justified by approximation arguments inspired by those
formulated for nonrandom prices.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2133375&r=all
423. Convergence Properties of Policy Iteration
Manuel Santos (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
John Rust (University of Maryland)
This paper analyzes the asymptotic convergence properties of
policy iteration in a class of stationary, infinite-horizon
Markovian decision problems that arise in optimal growth theory.
These problems have continuous state and control variables, and
must therefore be discretized in order to compute an approximate
solution. The discretization converts a potentially infinite
dimensional fixed-point problem to a finite dimensional problem
defined on a finite grid of points in the state space, and it may
thus render inapplicable known convergence results for policy
iteration such as those of Puterman and Brumelle (1979). Under
certain regularity conditions, we prove that for piecewise linear
interpolation, policy iteration converges quadratically, i.e. the
sequence of errors en = |Vn - V*| (where Vn is an approximate
value function produced from the nth policy iteration step)
satisfies en+1 = Le2n for all n. We show how the constant L
depends on the grid size of the discretization. Also, under more
general conditions we establish that convergence is superlinear.
We illustrate the theoretical results with numerical experiments
that compare the performance of policy iteration and the method
of successive approximations. The quantitative results are
consistent with theoretical predictions.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2133377&r=all
424. Existence and Uniqueness of Equilibrium in Nonoptimal
Unbounded Infinite Horizon Economies with Capital
Kevin Reffett (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Olivier Morand (University of Connecticut)
In applied work in macroeconomics and finance, nonoptimal
infinite horizon economies are often studied in which the state
space is unbounded. Important examples of such economies are
single sector growth models with production externalities, valued
fiat money, monopolistic competition, and/or distortionary
government taxation. Although sufficient conditions for existence
and uniqueness of Markovian equilibrium are well known for the
compact state space case, no similar sufficient conditions exist
for unbounded growth. This paper provides such a set of
sufficient conditions, and also presents a computational
algorithm that will prove asymptotically consistent when
computing Markovian equilibrium.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2133378&r=all
425. Intended and Accidental Bequests in a Life-cycle Economy
Lutz Hendricks (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
This paper studies quantitative importance of accidental versus
intended bequests. Bequests are decomposed into accidental and
intended components by comparing the implications of a standard
life-cycle model under alternative assumptions about bequest
motives. The main finding is that accidental bequests account for
at least half, and perhaps for all of observed bequests. The
paper then examines how assumptions about bequest motives affect
the effects of income tax changes. In contrast to previous
research, I find that bequest motives are not important for the
analysis of capital income taxation. The effects of labor income
taxes are reduced by altruistic bequests, but the role played by
bequests is much weaker than suggested by previous models.
JEL: D64 D91 E21
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2133407&r=all
426. Monotone Methods for Markovian Equilibrium in Dynamic
Economies
Kevin Reffett (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Manjira Datta (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Leonard Mirman (University of Virginia)
Olivier Morand (University of Connecticut)
In this paper, we provide an overview of an emerging class of
"monotone map methods" in analyzing distorted equilibrium in
dynamic economies. In particular, we focus on proving the
existence and characterization of competitive equilibrium in
nonoptimal versions of the optimal growth models. We suggest two
alternative methods: an Euler equation method for a smooth,
strongly concave environment, and a value function method for a
non-smooth supermodular environment. We are able to extend this
analysis to study models that allow for unbounded growth or a
labor-leisure choice.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2133476&r=all
427. An Optimal Auction with Identity-Dependent Externalities
Hector Chade (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Jorge Aseff (No affiliation)
We analyze the problem of a seller who has multiple units of a
good and faces a set of buyers with unit demands, private
information, and identity-dependent externalities. We derive the
seller's optimal mechanism and characterize its main properties.
As an application of the model, we consider the problem of a
shopping center's developer who wants to sell its stores to a set
of potential firms whose willingness to pay depend on the flow of
customers that will visit the mall, which is in turn affected by
the composition of the firms that locate in the center. We show
that a sequential selling procedure commonly used in practice is
an optimal mechanism if externalities are sufficiently large.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2133477&r=all
428. On the Existence and Characterization of Markovian
Equilibrium in Models with Simple Non-paternalistic Altruism
Kevin Reffett (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Olivier Morand (University of Connecticut)
This paper presents results on existence and characterization of
Markov equilibrium for a broad class of models with
intergenerational altruism frequently used in the macroeconomic
literature. In these models, parents are assumed to have a simple
non-paternalistic utility, as each generation derives utility
from its own consumption and the utility of the next generation.
Models with simple nonpaternalistic altruism are widely used (
Barro [1], Barro and Becker[2], Loury [8]), but results
establishing existence and characterizations of equilibrium are
surprisingly few and incomplete. Most important is the seminal
work of Ray [10] demonstrating the existence of an indirect
utility function and a saving policy such that it is optimal for
each generation to follow that particular policy, providing its
descendants use the same policy, and that the indirect utility
function is the same for all generations. In addition, the
optimal saving policy is shown to be an increasing function of
current endowments. Ray[10] focuses on existence, and there is no
characterization of the set of equilibria, no indications on how
to compute them, and no conditions under which the equilibrium
can be shown to be unique. This paper addresses these concerns.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2133478&r=all
429. Income Taxation and Marital Decisions
Hector Chade (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Gustavo Ventura (University of Western Ontario)
Differential tax treatment of married and single people is a key
feature of the tax law in the US and other countries. We develop
a matching model with search frictions to analyze the effects
these tax provisions have on marriage formation and dissolution.
Our main results are the following: (i) although an increase in
the 'marriage tax' reduces the number of marriages, there is a
two-sided search effect that can substantially mitigate its
impact on marriage formation and dissolution; (ii) an increase in
the 'marriage tax' need not make both men and women more
reluctant to marry; (iii) the effects of a given change in the
differential taxation on marital behavior depend on whether it is
implemented via changes in the tax rates that singles face or in
the tax rates that married people face, as well as on the ability
of the spouses to transfer utility between them; (iv) a computed
example reveals that large changes in the marriage tax penalty
can lead to small changes in the number of marriages and divorces,
and that the number of divorces can increase with a reduction in
the 'marriage tax'.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2133479&r=all
430. Search, Heterogeneity, and Noisy Observable Types
Hector Chade (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
This paper analyzes a model with search frictions, heterogeneous
agents, and nontransferable utility, in which each individual
observes only a noisy signal of the type of a potential partner.
We show that an agent's optimal strategy must take into account
not only the realization of the noisy signal observed, but also
the information contained in the event that the agent is accepted.
We show that there exists an equilibrium in strategies that are
increasing in types; the proof is based on the analysis of a
Bayesian game embedded in the model. This equilibrium exhibits a
stochastic form of positive sorting of agents by types: since
agents with higher types are accepted more often, and being
accepted is 'better news' for them than for agents with lower
types, they tend to be more selective in their acceptance
decision, and, therefore, they tend to marry agents with higher
types. We also shed light on whether equilibria in strategies
that are not increasing in types could exist.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2133485&r=all
431. Drifts and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in
the Post WWII US
Timothy Cogley (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Thomas Sargent (Stanford University and Hoover Institution)
For a VAR with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatilities,
we present posterior densities for several objects that are of
interest for designing and evaluating monetary policy. These
include measures of inflation persistence, the natural rate of
unemployment, a core rate of inflation, and ‘activism
coefficients’ for monetary policy rules. Our posteriors imply
substantial variation of all of these objects for post WWII U.S.
data. After adjusting for changes in volatility, persistence of
inflation increases during the 1970s then falls in the 1980s and
1990s. Innovation variances change systematically, being
substantially larger in the late 1970s than during other times.
Measures of uncertainty about core inflation and the degree of
persistence covary positively. We use our posterior distributions
to evaluate the power of several tests that have been used to
test the null of time-invariance of autoregressive coefficients
of VARs against the alternative of timevarying coefficients.
Except for one test, we find that those tests have low power
against the form of time variation captured by our model. That
one test also rejects time invariance in the data.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2133503&r=all
432. Information and the Equity Premium
Edward Schlee (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Christian Gollier (No affiliation)
We consider the effect of information on the average risk-free
rate and the average equity premium in a standard two-period
exchange economy with complete markets and a representative agent.
We show that information always increases the average risk-free
rate. Clearly, perfect information eliminates the equity premium;
moreover, we show that a particular kind of information about the
level of the return to equity always decreases the average equity
premium. Surprisingly, however, information must sometimes raise
the premium, no matter what the preferences of the representative
agent; and information purely about the volatility of the return
always raises the equity premium for a interesting class of
preferences. We use these results to illuminate the equity
premium and risk-free rate puzzles.
JEL: D8 D9 G12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2133505&r=all
433. A Stock Market Boom During a Financial Crisis? ADRs and
capital outflows in Argentina
Michael Melvin (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Beginning in late 2001, Argentina experienced a tumultuous
economic and social crisis including the end of the decade-long
peso peg to the dollar, drastic foreign exchange and capital
controls, violent anti-government demonstrations, social unrest,
and the largest debt default in history. Yet the Argentine stock
market experienced a boom during the early period of the crisis.
This is in contrast to the experience of other countries
undergoing financial crises, where the domestic stock market
experiences sharp declines in value. This paper explains the
surprising Argentine experience as a result of investors using
the stock market to shift funds out of Argentina and into the
United States. This was accomplished via purchases in Argentina
of shares of firms listed in the United States and traded as
American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). These Argentine shares were
converted into ADRs and sold in the U.S. to shift out of pesos in
Argentina into dollars in the United States. While ADRs and
underlying share prices typically trade in a very narrow range,
during the time when ADR conversions were permitted in Argentina,
a large premium on share prices in Argentina relative to ADR
prices existed. This premium reflected the capital loss expected
on peso investments in Argentina and the value of capital control
avoidance. On March 25, 2002, the conversion of Argentine shares
into ADRs was prohibited and the premium of Argentine share
prices over ADR prices once again returned to fluctuate about
zero.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2133524&r=all
434. Estimation by Simulation of Monotone Dynamical Systems
Manuel Santos (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
This paper offers a general proof of consistency for the
simulated moments estimator in a parameterized family of
stochastic models with monotone dynamics. Models with this
monotonicity property are frequently encountered in economic
applications. The proof of consistency of the estimator draws
upon a uniform law of large numbers over a continuum of invariant
distributions indexed by the model’s parameters.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2133542&r=all
435. Designer Path Independent Choice Functions
Mark Johnson (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Richard Dean (California Institute of Technology -
Department of Mathematics)
This paper provides a new characterization result for path
independent choice functions (PICF) on finite domains and uses
that characterization as the basis of an algorithm for the
construction of all PICFs on a finite set of alternatives, V,
designed by an a priori given set I of initial choices as well as
the determination of whether the initial set I is consistent with
path independence. The characterization result identifies two
properties of a partition of the Boolean algebra as necessary and
sufficient for a choice function C to be a PICF: (i): For every
subset A of V the set arc(A) = {B: C (B) = C(A)} is an interval
in the Boolean algebra 2v. (ii): If A/B is an interval in the
Boolean algebra such that C(A) = C(B) and if M/N is an upper
transpose of A/B then C(M) = C(N). The algorithm proceeds by
expanding on the implications of these two properties.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2145927&r=all
436. Measuring Consumer Welfare Using Statistical Demands
Edward Schlee (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
The equivalent or compensating variation for a price increase is
often calculated using the expenditure function from a
statistical (i.e. estimated) demand. If the regression errors are
due to unobserved heterogeneity, then the variation from the
statistical demand does not generally equal the mean variation
for households, resulting in inconsistent estimates. We give
conditions ensuring that the compensating variation from the
statistical demand i) equals the mean compensating variation; ii)
bounds the mean compensating variation; iii) is closer to the
mean compensating variation than the change in consumers' surplus
from the statistical demand. A necessary condition for ii) is
that demands become more dispersed as income rises (for each
class of households with the same demographic characteristics and
income). This plausible necessary condition is not sufficient for
either ii) or iii). If however we can write the indirect utility
function for each household in the class as additively separable
in income and the preference type, then increasing dispersion is
equivalent to ii) and implies iii) if the good is normal. If
household preferences are random, then the indirect (von Neumann-
Morgenstern) utility function must be additive separability in
income and the preference type if the compensating variation from
the mean demand is even a first-order approximation to the ex
ante compensating variation; consumers' surplus can easily be a
better approximation when additive separability fails.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2149162&r=all
437. On the Stability of the Two-Sector Neoclassical Growth
Model with Externalities
Berthold Herrendorf (W. P. Carey School of Business
Department of Economics)
Akos Valentinyi (University of Southampton)
We study a class of two-sector neoclassical growth models, in
which one sector produces consumption goods and the other sector
produces the capital goods for both sectors and in which the
capital–producing sector has sector–specific externalities.
We show analytically that if the capital goods for the two
sectors are imperfect substitutes, then local indeterminacy near
the steady state is impossible for every empirically plausible
specification of the model parameters. More specifically, we show
that a necessary condition for local indeterminacy is an upward-
sloping aggregate labor demand curve in the capital sector, which
requires a counterfactual strength of the externality. We show
numerically that an elasticity of substitution of plausible size
implies determinacy near the steady state for all empirically
plausible specifications of the model parameters. These findings
differ sharply from the standard result that if the two capital
goods are perfect substitutes, then local indeterminacy occurs in
the two-sector model for a wide range of plausible parameter
values.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2167721&r=all
438. How Trade Barriers Affect Technology Adoption and
Productivity
Berthold Herrendorf (W. P. Carey School of Business
Department of Economics)
Arilton Teixeira (No affiliation)
We ask how trade policy affects technology adoption, total
factor productivity (TFP henceforth), and per–capita income. To
answer this question, we construct a dynamic general equilibrium
model of a small open economy in which a coalition of skilled
workers decides whether or not to adopt newly available and more
productive technologies. We obtain three results. First, under
free trade and under a tariff the best technology is used and TFP
and per–capita income are as large as is possible. Second,
under a quota the best technology may or may not be used; in both
cases per–capita income and TFP are smaller than under free
trade and a tariff. Third, average growth rates are the same
across the three trade policy regimes but abandoning a quota
leads to a short–term increase in growth rates.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2167724&r=all
439. Monopoly Rights Can Reduce Income Big Time
Berthold Herrendorf (W. P. Carey School of Business
Department of Economics)
Arilton Teixeira (No affiliation)
We ask for which part of the observed cross–country
differences in the level of per–capita income monopoly rights
can account. We answer this question in a calibrated growth model
with capital. Monopoly rights in the capital–producing sector
shield labor market insiders from the competition by outsiders
and permit coalitions of these insiders to choose inefficient
technologies or working practices. We find that monopoly rights
can reduce the level of per–capita income by quantitatively
substantial amounts that are much larger than previously claimed.
Moreover, the effects of monopoly rights on the price of capital
goods relative to consumption goods and the investment share in
output are quantitatively consistent with the Penn World Tables.
The key to our findings is that monopoly rights in the
capital–producing sector do not only reduce total factor
productivity there but also increase the relative price of
capital. This reduces the capital–labor ratio in the rest of
the economy.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2167726&r=all
440. Simultaneous Search
Hector Chade (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of
Economics)
Lones Smith (University of Michigan)
We introduce and solve a new class of static portfolio choice
problems, where only the best realized alternative matters. A
decision maker must simultaneously choose among independent
ranked options, and the better alternatives have a lower chance
of panning out. Each choice is costly, and just one option may be
exercised.
This often emerges in practice:
• A student must make a costly and simultaneous application to many colleges, and is accepted with smaller chances by the better schools.
• An economics department must decide which of several PhD job candidates to fly out, and the better recruits will be available with smaller probability. We show that such portfolio choice problems quite generally entail maximizing a submodular function of finite sets - which is NP hard in general. Still, we develop a marginal improvement algorithm that produces the optimal set for our binary option structure in a quadratic number of steps. Applying it, we then show that the optimal choices are less risky than the sequentially optimal ones in Weitzman (1979), but riskier than the best singleton college choices. We also give practical rules of thumb, such as: (i) don't insure, choosing a safety school; instead, take risks - unless success rates are positively correlated; (ii) apply to an upwardly diverse portfolio of schools. We also provide comparative statics on the chosen set. URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2168591&r=all 441. Repeated Games with Present-Biased Preferences Hector Chade (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of Economics) Pavlo Prokopovych (University of Michigan) Lones Smith (University of Michigan)
We study infinitely repeated games with observable actions, where players have present-biased (so-called (beta)-(delta)) preferences. We give a two-step procedure to characterize Strotz- Pollak equilibrium payoffs: compute the continuation payoff set using recursive techniques, and use this set to characterize the equilibrium payoff set U(beta,delta). While Strotz-Pollak equilibrium and subgame perfection differ here, the generated paths and payoffs do coincide.
We then explore the cost of the
present-time bias. Fixing the total present value of 1 util flow,
lower (beta) or higher (delta) shrinks the payoff set.
Surprisingly, unless the minimax outcome is a Nash equilibrium of
the stage game, the equilibrium payoff set U(beta, delta) is not
monotonic in (beta) or (delta). While the set U(beta, delta) is
contained in that of a standard repeated game with greater
discount factor, the present-time bias precludes any lower bound
on U(beta, delta) that would easily generalize the (beta) = 1
folk-theorem.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2173938&r=all
442. On a kinetic model for a simple market economy
Stephane Cordier (MAPMO - Laboratoire de Mathematiques et
Applications Physique Mathematique - http://www.univ-
orleans.fr/SCIENCES/MAPMO/ - CNRS : UMR6628 - Universite
d'Orleans)
Lorenzo Pareschi (Center for Modelling Computing and
Statistics, c/o Department of Economy, Institutions and
Territory - Universita degli studi di Ferrara)
Giuseppe Toscani (Department of Mathematics of Pavia -
Universita degli studi di Pavia)
In this paper, we consider a simple kinetic model of economy
involving both exchanges between agents and speculative trading.
We show that the kinetic model admits non trivial quasi-
stationary states with power law tails of Pareto type. In order
to do this we consider a suitable asymptotic limit of the model
yielding a Fokker-Planck equation for the distribution of wealth
among individuals. For this equation the stationary state can be
easily derived and shows a Pareto power law tail. Numerical
results confirm the previous analysis.
Keywords: Econophysics;Boltzmann equation;wealth and income
distributions;Fokker Planck model; Monte Carlo
simulations; Pareto distribution
Date: 2004-12-21
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:ccsd-00003648_v1&r=all
443. Croyances et apprentissage en presence d'ambiguite et de
contingences non anticipees
Jean-Christophe Vergnaud (EUREQUA - Equipe Universitaire de
Recherche en Economie Quantitative - http://eurequa.univ-
paris1.fr/ - CNRS : UMR8594 - Universite Pantheon-
Sorbonne - Paris I)
L'objectif principal du projet etait d'etendre le cadre
Bayesien, modele standard en economie pour la formalisation de
l'incertitude, des croyances, de l'apprentissage, de
l'information…; modele qui conduit a des predictions fortes
et parfois peu realistes en economie theorique. Or ce cadre
Bayesien est extremement restrictif et ne permet pas de prendre
en compte de nombreux comportements observes. Le projet
presente ici, en associant economistes, mathematiciens et
informaticiens, avait pour but de tenter de batir un cadre
formel non - Bayesien coherent en exploitant les points de vue
propres a chaque discipline. Plus particulierement, trois
themes ont ete explores. Dans le theme, formalisation de
l'ambiguite et impact sur les comportements individuels, des
modeles de representation des preferences individuelles dans
l'incertain ont ete developpes, modeles qualitatifs et
quantitatifs. Notamment une « mesure objective de l'ambiguite
» a ete proposee permettant de definir une notion d'aversion
a l'ambiguite faisant le parallele avec l'aversion au risque.
Des applications economiques ont permis de montrer que tenir
compte de cette aversion a l'ambiguite modifiait sensiblement
l'analyse des echanges en situation d'incertitude. Dans le
theme, revision des croyances, qui de facon large abordait les
problemes de sequentialite, des progres sensibles ont ete
obtenus. D'une part, il a ete prouve que des modeles de
decision qualitative se pretaient a la programmation dynamique
au meme titre que le modele Bayesien. D'autre part des regles
de revision des croyances ont ete identifiees qui permettent
d'eviter des comportements irrationnels. Une tentative
operationnelle d'amender la programmation dynamique pour
eliminer le choix de strategies dominees a ete exploree.
Enfin, une theorie de la revision des croyances croisees dans
une situation multi – agents a ete ebauchee. Dans le theme
formalisation des contingences non anticipees et des processus
cognitifs du decideur, des travaux theoriques et des
experiences ont permis de mieux cerner le probleme des
preferences incompletes. L'importation des outils de la
theorie du choix dans l'incertain dans l'analyse multicritere a
permis de proposer de nouvelles techniques d'agregation.
Keywords: Croyances ; ambiguite ; apprentissage ; decision
Date: 2005-01-20
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:ccsd-00003702_v1&r=all
444. Policy framework and systems management of global climate
change
Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur
l'Environnement et le Developpement - http://www.centre-
cired.fr/ - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en
Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Genie Rural des Eaux
et Forets;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussees)
Jean-Charles Hourcade (CIRED - Centre International de
Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Developpement - http:
//www.centre-cired.fr/ - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes
Etudes en Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Genie Rural
des Eaux et Forets;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussees)
Climate change is representative of a general class of
environmental issues where decisions have to be taken under
controversies. The policy framework for these kinds of decisions
is defined by three important traits: scientific ignorance,
mediatization and the need for innovation. Scientific ignorance
is an issue here because decisions must be taken before the end
of scientific controversies about the predictability of future
climate. Mediatization is key because agents can't have a
sensible experience of the global climate change, and some
interest-holders (future generations, distant countries) cannot
participate directly in the decision. Third, the need for
innovation is crucial because today's technology offers the only
alternative between fossil fuels and nuclear power as a main
primary energy source.In the case of climate change, the
institutional context is the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change. The making of global environmental policy is
framed not upon a hypothetical code of international law (there
is no such a thing), but upon a body of doctrine arising from
consistent reference to a given set of principles. The key
principles are sustainability (satisfying the need of present
generations without preventing future generations to satisfy
theirs), precaution (ignorance is not an excuse for inaction),
the common but differentiated responsibility (developed countries
take the lead in action against climate change), and economic
efficiency (which lead to prefer flexible instruments over blind
regulation).Given the scientific controversies and the fuzziness
of guiding principles, no clear-cut demonstration could justify
the choice of a theoretically optimum course of action, even in
the short term. Historically, climate negotiations can be seen as
an oscillation between two regulation modes. On one side is
coordinated policies and measures, where countries adopt an
uniform international rate of carbon tax. On the other side is
emission trading, where a defined emission reduction target is
allocated to each country.
Keywords: changement climatique; Protocole de Kyoto
Date: 2004-02-10
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00001125_v1&r=all
445. The Static and Dynamic Efficiency of Instruments of
Promotion of Renewables
D. Finon (LEPII - Laboratoire d'economie de la production
et de l'integration internationale - http://www.upmf-
grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Universite Pierre
Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
P. Menanteau (LEPII - Laboratoire d'economie de la
production et de l'integration internationale - http://www.
upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Universite
Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
This paper deals with a comparative analysis of the economic and
social efficiency of the instruments used to promote renewable
energy sources (RES), first from a static standpoint and then
using dynamic criteria to assess their ability to stimulate
technological progress and cost reduction. First, the instruments
are analysed in relation to the classical discussion of
environmental policy that opposes price-based instruments versus
quantity-based instruments in an uncertain environment (feed-in
tariffs as price based system on one hand, quotas + green
certificates, competitive bidding as quantity-based instruments
on the other hand). Next, the incentives to invest and innovate
in the context of each framework are analysed in relation to the
sharing of the surplus associated with each of them between
producers/constructors and consumers or the public budget.
Finally, the paper looks at the overall cost-efficiency of the
policies on the basis of each instrument, by referring to factual
evidence in European experiences. It concludes that if social
preference is attached to climate change prevention and reflected
in a high quantitative objective for renewables, sliding scale
feed-in tariffs are a good compromise in order to promote
technical progress and national RES industry also. The
quota/certificate system also presents a number of advantages in
terms of static efficiency, but its ability to stimulate
innovation still has to be confirmed by experience.
Keywords: energies renouvelables;progres technologique;
certificat vert
Date: 2004-03-16
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00001300_v1&r=all
446. The failure of introducing market institutions in a rent
sector into an economy in transition
Catherine Locatelli (LEPII - Laboratoire d'economie de la
production et de l'integration internationale - http://www.
upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Universite
Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
Dominique Finon (LEPII - Laboratoire d'economie de la
production et de l'integration internationale - http://www.
upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Universite
Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
Privatisation is at the heart of the structural reforms for
economies in transition. In theory, the main aim of privatisation
is to change the structures of corporate governance in order to
improve the efficiency of the enterprises and to assure their
long-term future in a competitive environment. The adoption of
formal market institutions would be sufficient to secure the new
property rights, in particular because the new holders of the
rights to control assets would have a great incentive to
encourage the definition of new judicial rules that would
guarantee their rights of ownership. In Russia that didn't happen.
Keywords: privatisation;changement institutionnel;droits de
propriete;industrie gaziere;industrie petroliere
Date: 2004-03-16
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00001302_v1&r=all
447. La motorisation du transport de personnes en Chine : entre
croissance economique et soutenabilite
Julien Allaire (LEPII - Laboratoire d'economie de la
production et de l'integration internationale - http://www.
upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Universite
Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
A la fin des annees 1970, la Chine a amorce une phase de
croissance economique rapide. Celle-ci engendre une forte
demande en terme de transport de passagers. Pour y repondre et
dans l'objectif de porter la croissance economique au niveau de
la production, le gouvernement central chinois a choisi de
developper une industrie automobile. Les voitures particulieres
ont donc commence a apparaitre dans la deuxieme moitie des
annees 1990 dans les grandes villes du pays ou le revenu des
habitants est plus eleve que la moyenne nationale. Bien que ce
processus de motorisation n'en soit qu'a son commencement, les
maux engendres par la motorisation individuelle (Congestion,
pollution et morbidite) se font deja ressentir, tandis que les
risques a plus long terme (dependance energetique,
contribution a l'effet de serre) sont pressentis. Les
possibilites de reaction des pouvoirs publics sont multiples (
technologies, transport en commun, controle de la motorisation,
etc.), mais le processus de substitution de la bicyclette par la
voiture est en marche.
Keywords: chine;transport urbain;industrie automobile;voiture
Date: 2004-03-16
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00001304_v1&r=all
448. L'echec de l'introduction d'institutions de marche dans
une economie en transition : les limites du consensus de
Washington dans un secteur de rente
Catherine Locatelli (LEPII - Laboratoire d'economie de la
production et de l'integration internationale - http://www.
upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Universite
Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
Dominique Finon (LEPII - Laboratoire d'economie de la
production et de l'integration internationale - http://www.
upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Universite
Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
La privatisation est au c?ur des reformes structurelles pour
les economies en transition. En theorie son principal objectif
est de changer les structures de corporate governance dans le but
d'ameliorer l'efficience des entreprises. En theorie,
l'adoption des institutions formelles de marche devrait suffire
a securiser les nouveaux droits de propriete. Cette
hypothese ne s'est pas confirmee en Russie. Le papier discute
de la vision etroite du changement institutionnel sans
consideration de l'environnement anterieur et des institutions
formelles et informelles. Il offre une explication quant aux
effets «inattendus» des reformes dans un secteur de ressource
naturelle, tres intensif en capital. Ce secteur est celui de
l'industrie des hydrocarbures qui se caracterise par
l'opportunite d'extraire de la rente au travers des exportations.
Il demontre l'interet des proprietaires au maintien de la
faiblesse de la rule of law. Il demontre l'incompatibilite de
ces institutions avec les institutions formelles et informelles
initiales ce qui a conduit a des adaptations path dependent sous
la contrainte de preserver un minimum de coherence
interindustrielle.
Keywords: privatisation;changement institutionnel;droits de
propritete;industrie gaziere;industrie petroliere;
institutional change;property rights;hydrocarbon sector
Date: 2004-03-16
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00001306_v1&r=all
449. The viability of deregulation in the russian gas industry
Catherine Locatelli (LEPII - Laboratoire d'economie de la
production et de l'integration internationale - http://www.
upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Universite
Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
Russia is the world's leading gas producer. But reforming the
gas industry is currently one of the major challenges facing the
Russian energy industry in order to pursue its development. Since
1991, the terms of the debate have scarcely changed: what level
of deregulation is required, or can be introduced, in the gas
industry? The reform project, actually discussed, is quite
limited. This aim is to favour the development of competition on
the Russian domestic market by creation of new producers. But it
maintains the production-transport integration of Gazprom, the
actual gas monopoly. Also, Gazprom will retain the monopoly on
exports. So, the first stage of the reform, will only be the
setting-up of a transparent and non-discriminatory transportation
network for Gazprom, with regulated prices, and the creation of
an unregulated market alongside a regulated market. But the issue
of the reform begs a number of questions on the extent to which
it will be accepted by the various actors involved at different
levels.
Keywords: russie;reforme;industrie gaziere;dereglementation;
gas industry;deregulation;russia
Date: 2004-03-16
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00001308_v1&r=all
450. L'integration de la production intermittente dans les
marches electriques liberalises : des surcouts
techniques aux penalites economiques imposees par les
regles de fonctionnement des marches
Philippe Menanteau (LEPII - Laboratoire d'economie de la
production et de l'integration internationale - http://www.
upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Universite
Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
Dominique Finon (LEPII - Laboratoire d'economie de la
production et de l'integration internationale - http://www.
upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Universite
Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
Marie-Laure Lamy (LEPII - Laboratoire d'economie de la
production et de l'integration internationale - http://www.
upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Universite
Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
Les problemes que souleve l'integration de la production
intermittente sont de nature technique (risque de non
disponibilite a la pointe, besoins de reserve supplementaires)
mais les modalites de fonctionnement des marches electriques
lui imposent des penalites economiques qui depassent
largement ces surcouts techniques. Dans ce texte, les auteurs
examinent la nature des problemes techniques poses par
l'intermittence et les surcouts qui en resultent, puis
analysent l'origine des penalites economiques qu'impose le
fonctionnement des marches electriques liberalises, en
prenant notamment l'exemple du marche britannique, le New
Electricity Trading Arrangement (NETA). Il apparait que les
regles de fonctionnement des marches peuvent dans certains cas
entrer en contradiction avec les objectifs de promotion de la
production d'electricite d'origine renouvelable. Deux types de
solutions sont alors envisageables : un amenagement des regles
pour en limiter l'impact sur la production intermittente ou un
traitement collectif de l'ajustement, pour la production
d'origine renouvelable, tel qu'il existe sur le marche nordique
de l'electricite.
Keywords: energie renouvelable;intermittence;eolien;marches
electriques;liberalisation
Date: 2004-03-16
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00001311_v1&r=all
451. Le regime international pour le climat : vers la
consolidation ou l'effondrement ?
Pierre Berthaud (UPMF - UNIVERSITE PIERRE MENDES FRANCE -
Universite Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
Denise Cavard (LEPII - Laboratoire d'economie de la
prospective et de l'integration internationale - http:
//www.upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii - CNRS : FR2664 - Universite
Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
Patrick Criqui (LEPII - Laboratoire d'economie de la
prospective et de l'integration internationale - http:
//www.upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii - CNRS : FR2664 - Universite
Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
Cette contribution traite des modalites de gestion d'un
probleme d'action collective dans le domaine de la negociation
sur le climat, en s'appuyant sur deux des concepts de l'Economie
Politique Internationale (EPI), celui de regime international (
RI), et celui d'hegemonie et/ou de leadership. Le cours suivi
par la negociation internationale entre 1992 (Convention de Rio)
et mars 2001 (rejet par les Etats-Unis du protocole de Kyoto de
1997), conduit a s'interroger sur les conditions d'existence et
la viabilite d'un regime international non hegemonique (
partie 1). On s'interroge ensuite sur les perspectives de
"l'apres-Kyoto". L'examen des preferences des trois acteurs
les plus actifs dans la negociation (Etats-Unis, Europe, G77+
Chine) combine a celui des capacites de leadership qu'ils
possedent permet de differencier trois scenarios d'avenir : i)
l'anarchie, ii) un regime international sous hegemonie
americaine, iii) un regime international sous leadership
europeen (partie 2).
?????
This article deals
with the different modalities that exist to manage a problem of
collective action in the field of climate negotiation. It uses
two concepts of the International Political Economy (IPE) : the
concept of International Regime (IR) and the concept of Hegemony
and / or Leadership. The course the international negotiation has
taken between 1992 (Rio Convention) and march 2001 (the US
rejection of the Kyoto Protocol of 1997) leads us, first, to
question the conditions of existence as well as the viability of
a non-hegemonic International Regime (Part One). Then, we discuss
the perspectives for the "post - Kyoto" era. After having
examined the preferences of the three most active actors in the
negotiation (USA, Europe, G77 + China) combined with the
leadership capacities they possess, we identify three scenarios
for the future: i) anarchy, ii) an international regime under the
American hegemony, iii) an international regime under the
European leadership (Part Two).
Keywords: Changement climatique; regime international
Date: 2004-09-15
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00001362_v2&r=all
452. L'industrie petroliere russe entre gouvernances publique
et privee : les obstacles aux strategies d'entree des
compagnies internationales
Catherine Locatelli (LEPII-EPE - DEPARTEMENT ENERGIE ET
POLITIQUES DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT - http://www.upmf-grenoble.
fr/iepe/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Universite Pierre Mendes-
France - Grenoble II)
La faible implication des compagnies petrolieres
internationales en Russie semble difficilement explicable au
regard des enjeux du developpement de ses ressources et de sa
production. Elle constitue une zone d'autant plus importante pour
les compagnies petrolieres internationales que l'acces aux
ressources des plus grands pays producteurs du Moyen-Orient reste
a ce jour ferme. De nombreuses contraintes et contradictions
issues des specificites de l'environnement institutionnel et
politique de l'industrie petroliere russe au terme de quinze
ans de transition empechent l'integration internationale.
L'analyse des rapports conflictuels existants entre les acteurs
russes, Etat, Regions,compagnies petrolieres privees
demontre que les possibilites d'entree pour les compagnies
petrolieres internationales et leur insertion dans le « jeu
russe » sont aujourd'hui extremement limitee.
Keywords: industrie petroliere;Russie
Date: 2004-06-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00001660_v1&r=all
453. Does the Bush Administration's climate policy mean climate
protection ?
Odile Blanchard (LEPII-EPE - Laboratoire d'economie de la
prospective et de l'integration internationale - http:
//www.upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii-epe - CNRS : FRE2664 -
Universite Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
James F. Perkaus (PERKAUS & ASSOCIATES - Perkaus &
Associates - Perkaus & Associates)
The paper analyzes the two major components of the Bush
Administration's climate policy, namely an emission intensity
target and a technology strategy. The question is whether those
components will generate net emission reductions that will
contribute to the stabilization of the greenhouse gas
concentration at a safe level in the long run. It comes out that
the Bush Administration climate policy does not guarantee any
meaningful contribution to climate protection. The lenient
emission intensity target set by the Administration will most
likely allow near term emissions to grow. In the long run, the
Bush Administration places a big bet on future climate-friendly
technological breakthroughs to cost-effectively compensate for
the current and near term net emission increases. But the
outcomes of those technological developments are uncertain in
terms of emission reduction potential, cost, and timing. The way
towards enhanced climate protection will most likely not come
from the policies of the current Administration, but rather from
the growing concern about the climate issue in Congress and at
the state, corporate and civil society levels. These combined
forces may raise the playing field at the federal level in the
near future.
Keywords: politique environnementale;changement climatique;Etats-
Unis
Date: 2004-06-11
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00001683_v1&r=all
454. The russian oil industry between public and private
governance : obstacles to international oil companies'
investment strategies
Catherine Locatelli (LEPII - Laboratoire d’Economie de la
Production et de l’Integration Internationale - http:
//www.upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 -
Universite Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
The low level of involvement by international oil companies in
Russia seems difficult to explain given what development of its
resources and production has to offer. There are still many
restrictions and contradictions, born of the particular
institutional and political environment of the Russian oil
industry at the end of fifteen years of transition, that act as a
bar to international integration. Three factors currently define
the establishment of relations with foreign investors. First,
because of the many different levels of negotiation with Russian
companies, the State and the Regions, the decisions are based on
complex relations between the various forces. Second, the reforms,
and especially privatisation and the allocation of rights of
ownership to deposits, are considered by sizeable sections of
public opinion and many political classes to be illegitimate,
thus making the issue of international investment and foreign
presence still more complicated. Finally, the State's wish to
take back the oil industry in order to use it to fulfil its
economic and foreign policies is creating further uncertainty.
These three elements seriously restrict the entry of
international oil companies to the Russian market.
Keywords: industrie petroliere;Russie
Date: 2004-07-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00002159_v1&r=all
455. La place de la Russie dans l'approvisionnement gazier
europeen
Catherine Locatelli (LEPII - Laboratoire d’Economie de la
Production et de l’Integration Internationale - http:
//www.upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 -
Universite Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
L'Europe a de tous temps constitue le marche d'exportation
privilegie et unique pour les exportations gazieres russes.
Toutefois, la problematique des echanges gaziers de la Russie
avec l'Europe est susceptible d'etre quelque peu bouleversee ou
tout au moins contrainte par au moins deux facteurs. Il y a
d'abord des contraintes internes. La logique de maximisation de
la production gaziere russe rencontre un certain nombre de
limites qui devraient perdurer en l'absence d'une reforme sur
grande echelle de l'industrie gaziere. Il y a ensuite des «
contraintes exterieures » a la Russie. Son principal marche
d'exportation, le marche europeen, connait de profondes
mutations dans son organisation, ses structures, ses regles, et
ses institutions. Celles-ci supposent des adaptations dans la
strategie de Gazprom qui sont tout a la fois des contraintes
mais aussi des opportunites. Les strategies industrielles de
Gazprom au regard des marches d'Europe orientale et d'Europe du
Sud en sont l'une d'elles. Ces pays sont, ainsi, des zones cles
pour la Russie notamment pour le controle des hydrocarbures de
la Caspienne a destination de l'Europe.
Keywords: marche international;gaz naturel;Russie
Date: 2004-07-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00002160_v1&r=all
456. An abrupt stochastic damage function to analyse climate
policy benefits
Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur
l'Environnement et le Developpement - http://www.centre-
cired.fr - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en
Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Genie Rural des Eaux
et des Forets;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussees)
Dumas Patrice (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur
l'Environnement et le Developpement - http://www.centre-
cired.fr - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en
Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Genie Rural des Eaux
et des Forets;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussees)
This paper studies uncertainty about the non-linearity of
climate change impact. The DIAM 2.3 model is used to compute the
sensitivity of optimal CO2 emissions paths with respect to damage
function parameters. This builds upon results of the EMF-14
uncertainty subgroup study by explicitly allowing for the
possibility of threshold effects and hockey stick damage
functions. It also extends to the cost-benefits framework
previous studies about inertia of energy systems. Results show
that the existence of a threshold in the damage function is
critical to precautionary action. Optimal path are much less
sensitive to uncertainty on the scale of the damages than on the
threshold values.
Date: 2004-08-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00002451_v1&r=all
457. Influence of socioeconomic inertia and uncertainty on
optimal CO2-emission abatement
Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur
l'Environnement et le Developpement - http://www.centre-
cired.fr - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en
Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Genie Rural des Eaux
et des Forets;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussees)
Michael Grubb (EEP - Energy and Environmental Programme -
Royal Institute of International Affairs)
Jean-Charles Hourcade (CIRED - Centre International de
Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Developpement - http:
//www.centre-cired.fr - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes
Etudes en Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Genie Rural
des Eaux et des Forets;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et
Chaussees)
Following the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change [1],
countries will negotiate in Kyoto this December an agreement to
mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Here we examine optimal CO2
policies, given long-term constraints on atmospheric
concentrations. Our analysis highlights the interplay of
uncertainty and socioeconomic inertia. We find that the
‘integrated assessment' models so far applied under-represent
inertia, and we show that higher adjustment costs make it optimal
to spread the effort across generations and increase the costs of
deferring abatement. Balancing the costs of early action against
the potentially higher costs of a more rapid forced subsequent
transition, we show that early attention to the carbon content of
new and replacement investments reduces the exposure of both the
environmental and the economic systems to the risks of costly and
unpleasant surprises. If there is a significant probability of
having to stay below a doubling of atmospheric CO2-equivalent,
deferring abatement may prove costly.
Date: 2004-08-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00002452_v1&r=all
458. Quasi-option value and climate policy choices
Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur
l'Environnement et le Developpement - http://www.centre-
cired.fr - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en
Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Genie Rural des Eaux
et des Forets;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussees)
In the climate change issue, the environmental irreversibility (
risk of an acceleration of mitigation policies if the worse
happen) has to be balanced with the investment irreversibility (
risk of over-cautious policies). To explore this balance, we
define an option value for a precautionary climate policy. Using
the simplest decision-making model, we expose how option value
relates to the expected value of future information. Using
quantitative data from an integrated as sessment model, we find
that most of the times the environmental irreversibility
dominates the investment irreversibility. For all cases explored
here, the order of magnitude of the option value was significant,
about 50% of the opportunity cost.
Keywords: Option value, Climate change, Irreversibility
Date: 2004-08-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00002457_v1&r=all
459. Dynamic consistency problems behind the Kyoto protocol
Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur
l'Environnement et le Developpement - http://www.centre-
cired.fr - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en
Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Genie Rural des Eaux
et des Forets;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussees)
Jean-Charles Hourcade (CIRED - Centre International de
Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Developpement - http:
//www.centre-cired.fr - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes
Etudes en Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Genie Rural
des Eaux et des Forets;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et
Chaussees)
Franck Lecocq (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur
l'Environnement et le Developpement - http://www.centre-
cired.fr - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en
Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Genie Rural des Eaux
et des Forets;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussees)
This paper examines the economic rationale behind both the
quantitative targets and the flexibility mechanisms adopted in
the Kyoto Protocol. It synthesises some theoretical dimensions of
the debate about the so-called "when flexibility" of climate
policies, explaining the importance of the interplay between
uncertainty and technico-economic inertia. Numerical results
shows that the aggregate Kyoto abatement target is consistent
with a stochastic dynamic optimum in which a 450 ppm
concentration ceiling is seriously considered. Turning to the EU-
US debate about the interpretation of the "supplemental to"
condition in Article 3 of the Kyoto Protocol regarding the
articulation between international trading systems and domestic
policies and measures, this text illuminates the risk of dynamic
inconsistencies due to the heterogeneity of capital stocks in the
economy, if price signals do not emerge in due time from GHGs
trading systems because of the ``hot air'' in some countries and
the discovery of low costs abatement potentials in Annex B
countries. Numerical simulations show that a delay of action on
sectors with large inertia of capital stocks and of the
consumption styles may under such circumstances ultimately
undermine the economic viability of climate policies beyond 2012.
Some lessons are derived for the future of climate policies and
negotiations about the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol.
Date: 2004-08-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00002459_v1&r=all
460. L'Organisation mondiale du commerce et l'environnement :
aspects institutionnels et reglementaires
Mehdi Abbas (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production
et de l'Integration Internationale - http://www.upmf-
grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Universite Pierre
Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
Ce travail aborde une des nouvelles thematiques des
negociations commerciales multilaterales: la regulation
environnementale. Il propose de retracer la facon dont l'OMC est
amenee a traiter de l'environnement et les contradictions dans
lesquelles elle se trouve du fait de l'incompatibilite entre
l'objectif de liberalisation commerciale et celui de protection
des ressources environnementales. Le travail met en evidence une
seconde contradiction issue de la nature meme de l'OMC:
organisation fondee sur ses membres. Ces derniers tentent de
repondre a une demande de la societe civile en integrant
l'environnement dans l'architecture commerciale multilaterale.
Mais, l'offre qu'ils presentent, pour des raisons de
competitivite et de concurrence se reduit a une recherche
d'articulation de normes exogenes aux Accords de l'OMC. La
logique est donc au cloisonnement des deux thematiques (
liberalisation commerciales et protection de l'environnement).
Keywords: OMC;negociations commerciales internationales;
environnement
Date: 2004-08-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00002712_v1&r=all
461. De URBAN I a URBAN III : un point de vue economique sur
la politique de cohesion en Europe
Mehdi Abbas (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production
et de l'Integration Internationale - http://www.upmf-
grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Universite Pierre
Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
Fin 2006 s'achevera le programme d'initiative communautaire
Urban destine a soutenir la rehabilitation economique et
sociale des quartiers en crise. Ce programme constitue
l'element majeur de la politique de developpement economique
et de cohesion sociale de la Commission europeenne. Cette
contribution analyse le rapport de Commission relative a la
preparation du programme Urban III (2007-2013). A l'aune des
enseignements de la nouvelle geographie economique, cette
contribution aborde la question de la redistribution spatiale et
urbaine de la croissance dans le contexte de l'elargissement.
L'hypothese retenue considere l'elargissement comme un
renforcement de la concurrence entre sites urbains. Le travail
aborde ensuite, dans une approche d'economie politique, les
consequences socio-economiques de l'integration spatiale
regionale.
Keywords: cohesion sociale;politique urbaine;Union europeenne
Date: 2004-08-30
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00002713_v1&r=all
462. The entry of China to the gas market: constraints and
opportunities
Catherine Locatelli (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la
Production et de l'Integration Internationale - http://www.
upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Universite
Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
China will emerge in the next twenty years as a major importer
of gas and thus shape the energy exchanges and markets in Asia.
But different constraints must be overcome. The increase of
natural gas share in the Chinese energy balance will depend on
the country's capacity to create a unified gas market in place
and instead of the fragmented exchanges. This implies several
economic and institutional reforms (as for example the energy
price reform). One important element that will determine the
growth of the Chinese gas industry concerns the role of
international investors. The growth of the Chinese gas demand
would lead to a radical change in the country's energy policy,
which up until now has been dominated by the search for self-
sufficiency. From this point of view, the question of the choices
of the main gas suppliers is essential concerning the Chinese
energy security. Different countries are in competition. But the
choices of the main suppliers are very linked with the way in
which China perceives its integration at the international level
and in the Asian region.
Keywords: demande;gaz naturel;industrie gaziere;investissement
international;securite energetique; prix;gnl;
pipeline;Chine;Russie;Mer Caspienne;Chinese gas demand;
Chinese gas price reform;International investments;gas
pipeline projects;LNG projects;Energy security;Russia;
Caspian countries
Date: 2004-09-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00002742_v1&r=all
463. Mobilite et effet de serre : l'evolution des villes au
Nord et les perspectives au Sud
Julien Allaire (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la
Production et de l'Integration Internationale - http://www.
upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Universite
Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
Cet article se propose d'etudier d'un point de vue historique
les dynamiques urbaines de deplacements et leur lien avec la
forme urbaine. En s'appuyant sur les travaux de Zahavi et ceux de
Newman et Kenworthy, nous proposons ici une analyse de
l'evolution des modes de transports utilises dans les villes du
Nord au cours de leur developpement et des formes urbaines qui y
sont liees. Cette analyse conjointe nous sert a mieux
interpreter le lien entre kilometrage parcouru et croissance
economique, sans negliger les specificites nationales ou
locales des villes considerees. En decrivant la situation des
villes dans les pays en developpement, nous nous interrogeons
sur les orientations possibles de ces cites, en particulier les
villes asiatiques qui connaissent une croissance economique
rapide. Leur organisation urbaine aura, a fortiori, une grande
importance du point de vue de la consommation d'energie et de
l'impact sur les degagements de gaz a effet de serre.
Keywords: Mobilite;Forme urbaine;Modes de transport;
consommation d'energie
Date: 2004-10-14
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00003075_v1&r=all
464. Changes in Russia's gas exportation strategy: Europe versus
Asia ?
Catherine Locatelli (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la
Production et de l'Integration Internationale - http://www.
upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Universite
Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
Russia's gas strategy is currently undergoing fundamental
changes. The internationalisation of Russia's gas exchanges is at
the heart of Gazprom's strategy. The institutional and
organisational developments in its principal export market, that
of the European Union is a major challenge that brings
opportunities as well as constraints. The European Union is still
its main export market, but the emergence of Asia as a
significant importer of gas is likely to modify the Russian gas
export strategy. To some extent, Russia could bring these various
potential markets into competition, at least as far as Europe and
Asia are concerned. With almost 40% of world gas reserves, Russia
undoubtedly has a card to play on the international energy
markets.
Keywords: Russian gas exportation;Liberalisation;European gas
market;Russian gas policy
Date: 2004-12-02
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00003448_v1&r=all
465. Les evolutions de la strategie d'exportation gaziere de
la Russie : l'Europe contre l'Asie ?
Catherine Locatelli (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la
Production et de l'Integration Internationale - http://www.
upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Universite
Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
La strategie gaziere russe est aujourd'hui soumise a de
profondes evolutions, et l'internationalisation des echanges
gaziers russes est desormais au c?ur de la strategie de
Gazprom. Les evolutions institutionnelles et organisationnelles
de son principal marche d'exportation, celui de l'Union
europeenne, sont un enjeu majeur pour la Russie. Elles sont
porteuses d'un certain nombre de contraintes mais aussi
d'opportunites. L'Union europeenne est encore le principal
marche d'exportations gazieres pour la Russie mais l'emergence
de l'Asie en tant qu'importateur significatif de gaz est
susceptible de modifier les priorites de la Russie en la
matiere. Avec 40% des reserves mondiales de gaz, la Russie a
incontestablement une carte a jouer sur la scene energetique
mondiale.
Keywords: exportations gazieres russes;liberalisation du
marche gazier europeen;strategie gaziere russe.
Date: 2004-12-07
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00003477_v1&r=all
466. Vers une plus grande coherence de la politique
petroliere de la Russie ?
Sadek Boussena (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la
Production et de l'Integration Internationale - http://www.
upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Universite
Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
Catherine Locatelli (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la
Production et de l'Integration Internationale - http://www.
upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Universite
Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
Dans le nouveau contexte petrolier mondial, la Russie tente de
definir une strategie petroliere plus coherente et plus
equilibree que celle qui a prevalu dans les annees quatre-
vingt-dix. Les echecs de la privatisation l'ont conduit a
reevaluer en profondeur sa politique petroliere. Aujourd'hui,
deux modeles polaires s'affrontent: un modele «type OPEP» et
un modele «type norvegien». Le choix entre ces deux options
determine la position de la Russie vis-a-vis de la politique
des prix de l'OPEP.
Keywords: politique petroliere;Russie
Date: 2004-12-09
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00003489_v1&r=all
467. A strategy for bounding attributable risk: a lung cancer
example.
Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur
l'Environnement et le Developpement - http://www.centre-
cired.fr - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en
Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Genie Rural des Eaux
et des Forets;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussees)
Elizabeth Casman (CMU, EPP - Carnegie Mellon University,
Department of Engineering and Public Policy - http://www.
epp.cmu.edu/ - Carnegie Mellon University)
Granger Morgan (CMU, EPP - Carnegie Mellon University,
Department of Engineering and Public Policy - http://www.
epp.cmu.edu/ - Carnegie Mellon University)
For diseases with more than one risk factor, the sum of
probabilistic estimates of the number of cases attributable to
each individual factor may exceed the total number of cases
observed, especially when uncertainties about exposure and dose-
response for some risk factors is high. In this study we outline
a method to bound the fraction of lung cancer fatalities not
attributed to specific well-studied causes. Such information
serves as a "reality check" for attributional studies of the
minor risk factors, and, as such, complements the traditional
risk analysis. With lung cancer as our example, we attribute
portions of the observed lung cancer mortality to known causes (
such as smoking, residential radon, and asbestos fibers) and
describe the uncertainty surrounding those estimates. The
interactions among the risk factors are also quantified, to the
extent possible. We then infer an upper bound on the residual
risk due to "other" causes, using a coherence constraint on the
total number of deaths, the maximum uncertainty principle, and
the mathematics of imprecise probabilities.
Keywords: bounding analysis, lung cancer risk, imprecise
probability, epidemiology
Date: 2004-12-23
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00003680_v1&r=all
468. L'enjeu energetique des relations entre la Chine et la
Russie-Caspienne
Catherine Locatelli (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la
Production et de l'Integration Internationale - http://www.
upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Universite
Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
La dependance energetique de la Chine tant en matiere
petroliere que gaziere est appelee a croitre fortement dans
les dix ans a venir. Ceci suppose des evolutions majeures de sa
politique energetique et pose de nouveaux enjeux de securite
energetique pour un pays qui a de tout temps cherche a
preserver son independance energetique. La multiplication et
la diversification de ses fournisseurs ainsi que les tentatives
d'acceder directement aux ressources en hydrocarbures sont les
deux voies que la Chine entend privilegier pour repondre a ses
enjeux de securite energetique. La Russie comme les pays de
la Caspienne font partie des zones susceptibles de repondre aux
nouveaux objectifs de la politique chinoise. La problematique
des oleoducs et des gazoducs rend compte des liens susceptibles
d'etre developpes entre ces deux zones mais aussi des
contraintes qui devront etre surmontees. De ce point de vue,
les enjeux sont tout autant politiques, strategiques
qu'economiques.
Keywords: politique energetique ; Chine ; securite
energetique ; independance energetique
Date: 2005-01-26
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00003790_v1&r=all
469. LE CASSE-TETE DE L'ETAT CHINOIS : ENCOURAGER LA
CONSOMMATION AUTOMOBILE EN DECOURAGEANT LA CONSOMMATION
D'ENERGIE
Julien Allaire (LEPII - Laboratoire d'economie de la
production et de l'integration internationale - http://www.
upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Universite
Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
Le marche automobile chinois a connu un essor considerable
depuis quelques annees. Cette croissance vertigineuse du nombre
de vehicules motorises presente de nombreux enjeux du point de
vue energetique et donc climatique. Dans cet article nous
revenons sur les dynamiques du marche automobile chinois depuis
le nouveau millenaire. Nous essayons de presenter le cadre
institutionnel developpe par les autorites chinoises pour le
secteur automobile ainsi que l'evolution du marche. Ensuite
nous nous interesserons aux questions energetiques soulevees
par le developpement rapide du parc de vehicules. Si les
autorites chinoises souhaitent augmenter le nombre de vehicules
en circulation, elles souhaitent egalement limiter la
consommation d'energie des transports routiers. La
dieselisation du parc automobile a deja fortement reduit
l'intensite energetique du parc de vehicules mais alors que
le gouvernement central demande des vehicules a faible
consommation, il reste des freins tels que la qualite des
carburants. Nous proposons enfin quelques donnees prospectives
pour le secteur d'ici 2010
Keywords: Marche automobile ; Chine ; consommation d'energie
Date: 2005-01-26
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00003791_v1&r=all
470. Economic approach to climate policies and stakes of
international negotiations
Denise Cavard (LEPII - Laboratoire d'economie de la
prospective et de l'integration internationale - http:
//www.upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii - CNRS : FR2664 - Universite
Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
Patrick Criqui (LEPII - Laboratoire d'economie de la
prospective et de l'integration internationale - http:
//www.upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii - CNRS : FR2664 - Universite
Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
Cet article traite des differentes modalites qui existent pour
gerer un probleme d'action collective, comme celui du
changement climatique, susceptible d'affecter les conditions de
vie et les activites economiques de toutes les regions du
monde.
Keywords: changement climatique;negociations internationales;
politique environnementale
Date: 2005-01-28
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00003793_v1&r=all
471. Les fondements d'une nouvelle organisation du secteur
petrolier russe : entre le prive et l'Etat.
Sadek Boussena (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la
Production et de l'Integration Internationale - http://www.
upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Universite
Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
Catherine Locatelli (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la
Production et de l'Integration Internationale - http://www.
upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Universite
Pierre Mendes-France - Grenoble II)
Le vaste mouvement de privatisation des annees quatre-vingt-dix
a structure l'industrie petroliere russe autour d'un oligopole
de compagnies nationales integrees et privees inserees dans
un reseau de rapports de pouvoir complexes avec l'Etat federal
et les Regions. Les limites de ce modele (absence d'un systeme
de droits de propriete prives clairement defini et securise)
induit un autre modele de developpement. L'Etat entend,
desormais, controler plus etroitement cette industrie en
s'appuyant sur un secteur prive qui serait fortement adosse a
un secteur public, et qui respecterait « l'interet national »
defini par le gouvernement. A l'inverse des dix dernieres
annees, l'Etat veut aujourd'hui harmoniser sa politique
petroliere en fonction des moyens dont il dispose effectivement
et des contraintes economiques et institutionnelles issues de la
transition vers une economie de marche.
Keywords: industrie petroliere, structure d'organisation,
privatisation, Russie
Date: 2005-03-24
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00003872_v1&r=all
472. Scenarios, probability and possible futures
Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur
l'Environnement et le Developpement - http://www.centre-
cired.fr - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en
Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Genie Rural des Eaux
et des Forets;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussees)
This paper deals with the so-called `probability of scenarios'
issues: what is the meaning of these numbers, and what is the
appropriate degree of unlikelihood of extreme scenarios ? For far
distant futures (such as assessments of climate change in 2100),
scenarios without any quantified uncertainty level are often
problematic, but forecasts with precise probabilities are out of
reach. We propose to use a non-probabilistic approach:
possibility theory. De Finetti's interpretation of uncertainty is
used to define the meaning of quantified possibility levels based
on acceptable betting odds. Turning to the question ``At which
level of possibility should the possible futures be selected?'',
we reason that a set of n scenarios should contain at least one
future at possibility level 1, but if there are extremes cases
their possibility should be precisely 1/n.
Keywords: Futures, futurible, scenarios, possibility, imprecise
probabilities, uncertainty, fuzzy logic
Date: 2005-05-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00003925_v1&r=all
473. Climate strategy with CO2 capture from the air
David Keith (Department of Chemical and Petroleum
Engineering, University of Calgary - http://www.eng.
ucalgary.ca/Chemical/, Department of Engineering and Public
Policy, Carnegie Mellon University - http://www.epp.cmu.
edu/)
Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur
l'Environnement et le Developpement - http://www.centre-
cired.fr - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en
Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Genie Rural des Eaux
et des Forets;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussees,
Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie
Mellon University - http://www.epp.cmu.edu/)
Joshua Stolaroff (Department of Engineering and Public
Policy, Carnegie Mellon University - http://www.epp.cmu.
edu/)
Ce texte porte sur la question de la reversibilite a long
terme des emissions de CO2. Il donne un exemple de technologies
de capture directe a partir de l'air, qui permet de borner le
cout marginal de reduction du CO2 dans toute l'economie. Il
explore les aspects thermodynamiques de la capture du dioxyde de
carbone a partir de l'air. Le modele DIAM a ete etendu pour
prendre en compte ces options et examiner les consequences sur
les politiques climatiques optimales.
Keywords: Capture du carbone, changement climatique,
modelisation integree, politique climatique
Date: 2005-05-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00003926_v1&r=all
474. Carbon storage: the economic efficiency of storing CO2 in
leaky reservoirs
Minh Ha-Duong (Department of Engineering and Public Policy,
Carnegie Mellon University - http://www.epp.cmu.edu/, CIRED
Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et
le Developpement - http://www.centre-cired.fr - CNRS :
UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales;
Ecole Nationale du Genie Rural des Eaux et des Forets;
Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussees)
David Keith (Department of Chemical and Petroleum
Engineering, University of Calgary - http://www.eng.
ucalgary.ca/Chemical/, Department of Engineering and Public
Policy, Carnegie Mellon University - http://www.epp.cmu.
edu/)
Les combustibles fossiles peuvent etre utilises avec peu
d'emissions en capturant le dioxyde de carbone et en le stockant
dans des structures geologiques. Cependant, une fraction du
carbone stocke pourrait fuir vers l'atmosphere, ce qui
limiterait l'utilite de cette technologie. Afin d'explorer les
compromis entre actualisation, etancheite du reservoir, cout
de sequestration et penalite energetique (l'energie
necessaire pour capturer, transporter et injecter le carbone en
sous-sol), nous developpons un modele analytique marginal
simple de la valeur d'un stockage imparfait comparativement a
stockage ideal. Si le taux de fuite annuel est de 1 pour cent et
le taux d'actualisation de 4 pour cent, par exemple, alors le
stockage temporaire) de la tonne de CO2 se compare a
l'elimination (permanente) de 8 quintaux de ce meme gaz.
Keywords: changement climatique, politique energetique,
stockage du carbone, sequestration du carbone
Date: 2005-05-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00003927_v1&r=all
475. Sub-fractional Brownian motion and its relation to
occupation times
Tomasz Bojdecki (Institute of Mathematics, University of
Warsaw)
Luis G. Gorostiza (Department of Mathematics, Centro de
Investigacion y de Estudios Avanzados)
Anna Talarczyk (Institute of Mathematics, University of
Warsaw)
We study a long-range dependence Gaussian process which we call
“sub-fractional Brownian motion” (sub-fBm), because it is
intermediate between Brownian motion (Bm) and fractional Brownian
motion (fBm) in the sense that it has properties analogous to
those of fBm, but the increments on non-overlapping intervals are
more weakly correlated and their covariance decays polynomially
at a higher rate. Sub-fBm has a parameter h E (0, 2), we show how
it arises from occupation time fluctuations of branching particle
systems for h >= 1 and we exhibit the long memory effect of the
initial condition.
Keywords: Long-range dependence; Fractional Brownian motion; Sub-
fractional Brownian motion; Occupation time
fluctuations; Branching systems.
JEL: C10 C40
Date: 2004-06-15
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pqs:wpaper:0132005&r=all
476. Breaks and Persistency: Macroeconomic Causes of Stock
Market Volatility
Andrea Beltratti
Claudio Morana (SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics -
University of Eastern Piedmont)
In the paper we study the relationship between macroeconomic and
stock market volatility, using S&P500 data for the period 1970-
2001. We find evidence of both long memory and structural change
in volatility and a twofold linkage between stock market and
macroeconomic volatility. In terms of the break processes, our
results show that there are frequent cases where the break in the
volatility of stock returns is associated within few months with
breaks in the volatility of the Federal funds rate and M1 growth.
After accounting for the structural breaks, there remain
interesting relations among the breakfree series. Fractional
cointegration analysis points to the existence of three long-run
relationships linking stock market, money growth, inflation, the
Federal funds rate, and output growth volatility, and two common
long memory factors mainly associated with output and inflation
volatility. We find that stock market volatility dynamics, both
persistent and non persistent, are associated in a causal way
with macroeoconomic volatility shocks, particularly to output
growth volatility. The stock market idiosyncratic shock, which
accounts for the bulk of the overall dynamics, also affects
macroeconomic volatility. Yet the evidence suggests that the
causality direction is stronger from macroeconomic to stock
market volatility than the other way around.
JEL: C32 F30 G10
Date: 2004-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upo:upopwp:20&r=all
477. frequency domain principal components estimation of
fractionally cointegrated processes
Claudio Morana (SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics -
University of Eastern Piedmont)
In this paper we study the zero frequency spectral properties of
fractionally cointegrated long memory processes and introduce a
new frequency domain principal components estimator of the
cointegration space and the factor loading matrix for the long
memory factors. We find that for fractionally di?erenced (
fractionally) cointegrated processes the squared multiple
coherence at the zero frequency is equal to one, the spectral
density matrix at the zero frequency is singular, and the factor
loading and cointegrating matrices can be obtained from the
eigenvectors of the spectral matrix at the zero frequency,
associated with the positive and zero roots, respectively. A
Monte Carlo simulation reveals that the proposed principal
components estimator has already good properties with relatively
small sample sizes.
Keywords: cointegration, long memory, frequency domain analysis
JEL: C22
Date: 2004-03
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upo:upopwp:44&r=all
478. The indirect scaling into the customer satisfaction : An
approach based on the alternative use of the exponential and
the normal distribution
Giovanni Portoso (SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics -
University of Eastern Piedmont)
In order to generate the values associated to the judgements
expressed into the customer satisfaction, the psycometric method
uses the normal distribution. In a few conditions this function
is the cause of preposterous values, that distort the scaling
procedure. In case of frequencies concentrated on the extreme
categories, the assumption of the exponential, instead of the
normal distribution, improves the judgements scaling. An approach,
based on the alternative use of the standard normal and
exponential distribution is developed; it gives good results.
Keywords: Normal distribution, exponential distribution,
indirect scaling, customer satisfaction
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upo:upopwp:53&r=all
479. a structural common factor approach to core inflation
estimation and forecasting
Claudio Morana (SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics -
University of Eastern Piedmont)
In the paper we propose a new methodological approach to core in-
flation estimation, based on a frequency domain principal
components estimator, suited to estimate systems of fractionally
cointegrated processes. The proposed core inflation measure is
the scaled common persistent factor in inflation and excess
nominal money growth and bears the interpretation of monetary
inflation. The proposed measure is characterised by all the
properties that an “ideal” core inflation process should show,
providing also a superior forecasting performance relative to
other available measures.
Keywords: long memory, common factors, fractional cointegration,
Markov switching, core inflation, euro area.
JEL: C22 E31 E52
Date: 2004-02
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upo:upopwp:54&r=all
480. A concentration indicator of the frequencies on the
extremes for the ordinal categorial variables based on
judgments
Giovanni Portoso (SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics -
University of Eastern Piedmont)
The conversion problem on the metric scale of the judgments
expressed towards the products or the services can be solved
searching the latent variable, that is always the normal standard.
Sometimes, particularly when the frequencies are concentrated on
the left extreme or the right extreme of the distribution, the
assumption of the normal brings to opposite results. We have used,
in the above mentioned circumstances, the exponential, negative
or positive, suitably standardized, obtaining more acceptable
results and more adjusted to the observed distribution structures.
In this note we have proposed , into the range –1 and +1, an
indicator that assists in the selection among the exponential
negative or positive and the normal. Its validity has been
examined by some examples, that included a number rather diffuse
of peculiar cases.
Keywords: Normal distribution, exponential distribution, latent
variables, concentration indicator of frequencies.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upo:upopwp:66&r=all
481. Upgrading in global value chains: lessons from latin
american clusters
Elisa Giuliani
Carlo Pietrobelli
Roberta Rabellotti (SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics -
University of Eastern Piedmont)
The literature on industrial districts in advanced and less
developed countries has shown that clustering helps local
enterprises overcome growth constraints and compete in distant
markets. Nevertheless, recent contributions have stressed that
more attention needs to be paid to external linkages and to the
role played by global buyers to foster upgrading at cluster level.
In this study, we contribute to this debate focusing on the
analysis of the relationships existing between clustering, global
value chains, upgrading and sectoral patterns of innovation in
Latin America. We find that sectoral specificities matter and
influence the mode and the extent of upgrading in clusters
integrated in global value chains.
Keywords: Latin America, small enterprise, industrial policy,
clusters, global value chain, innovation
JEL: O1 O3 O54 R11
Date: 2004-02
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upo:upopwp:72&r=all
482. Regional Convergence in Italy: 1951-2000
Claudio Morana (SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics -
University of Eastern Piedmont)
In the paper we assess the convergence hypothesis for the
Italian economy over the period 1951-2000, using a new
methodological approach. The approach is based on a two-step
recursive principal components estimator, allowing to monitor the
progress of the convergence process over time and to distinguish
between steady-state and transitional dynamics. The overall
conclusions of our work are in favour of a two-speed
unconditional convergence process in per capita GDP across
Italian regions, occurring at a slow pace and not monotonically.
Keywords: convergence, economic growth
JEL: C32 O11
Date: 2004-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upo:upopwp:76&r=all
483. The Japanese Deflation: Has It Had Real Effects? Could It
Have Been Avoided?
Claudio Morana (SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics -
University of Eastern Piedmont)
Has deflation contributed to the long lasting stagnation of the
Japanese economy? Could the Bank of Japan have stopped deflation
by implementing a more expansionary monetary policy? Our
tentative answers are probably not to the first question, and
probably yes to the second question. We find that the total cost
of deflation over the period 1995-2003 has been close to a 1.1%
rate of lost GDP. Yet, on the basis of statistical significance
and robustness to specification choices, this evidence is not
compelling. On the other hand, the estimated positive linkage
between nominal base money growth and inflation is significant
and robust, even given current economic conditions. However, in
order to be inflationary, monetary policy should have been more
expansionary than what actually observed, even since the launch
of the quantitative easing in 2001.
Keywords: deflation, monetary policy, Friedman’s rule, Japan,
generalised flexible least squares, time-varying
parameter VAR, thick modelling.
JEL: C32 E50
Date: 2004-11
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upo:upopwp:87&r=all